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Elections in West Virginia |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Democratic Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott and Republican Governor Jim Justice were seeking their first term in office. Justice will succeed independent incumbent Joe Manchin, who did not seek a third full term. [1]
Manchin, a Democrat until his final year in the senate, announced he would not run for re-election shortly before switching to independent. [2] He endorsed Elliott, who won the Democratic nomination with 45% of the vote against political activist Zach Shrewsbury and businessman Don Blankenship. Justice won the Republican nomination with 62% of the vote against Congressman Alex Mooney.
Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, the absence of Manchin, and being held concurrently with a presidential race in a state in which Donald Trump was expected to win by a wide margin, this seat was universally expected to be easily picked up by Republicans in 2024. [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] Elected Republicans last held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1931. [a] This is the first time the Republicans won this Senate seat since 1956. This is the first time since 2014 that Republicans won an open seat. West Virginia will also make one of several states to have a younger senior senator (Shelley Moore Capito) and an older junior senator (Justice).
Manchin saw electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia, [9] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle. [10] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat are Congressman Alex Mooney [11] and Governor Jim Justice. [12]
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought re-election. [13] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin. [7] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary. [14]
Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Zachary Shrewsbury (D) | $295,678 | $238,895 | $56,782 |
Glenn Elliott (D) | $125,407 | $60,071 | $65,335 |
Don Blankenship (D) | $1,000 | $0 | $1,085 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [27] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Glenn Elliott | 46,176 | 45.40% | |
Democratic | Zach Shrewsbury | 36,754 | 36.14% | |
Democratic | Don Blankenship | 18,778 | 18.46% | |
Total votes | 101,708 | 100.00% |
Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Jim Justice (R) | $2,956,027 | $2,024,749 | $931,451 |
Alex Mooney (R) | $3,266,887 | $2,629,525 | $637,362 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [27] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | May 2–5, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 60% | 30% | 10% [c] | – |
Research America [A] | April 24 – May 1, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 67% | 23% | 7% | 3% |
Osage Research [B] | April 22–24, 2024 | 400(LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 35% | 5% | 11% |
NMB Research | April 20–22, 2024 | 500(LV) | ± 4.38% | 60% | 24% | – | 16% |
Research America [A] | April 3–9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 66% | 24% | 4% | 6% |
Emerson College | March 19–21, 2024 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 17% | 1% | 22% |
American Pulse Research & Polling (R) [C] | November 13–14, 2023 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 20% | 3% [d] | 22% |
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates [D] | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 23% | – | 15% |
Research America [A] | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 26% | – | 16% |
Orion Strategies [E] | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 56% | 19% | 9% | 16% |
ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 12% | – | 35% |
co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 17% | – | 38% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Patrick Morrisey | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Public Affairs (R) | March 14–17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV) [e] | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jim Justice | 138,307 | 61.84% | |
Republican | Alex Mooney | 59,348 | 26.54% | |
Republican | Bryan Bird | 7,001 | 3.13% | |
Republican | Bryan McKinney | 6,573 | 2.94% | |
Republican | Zane Lawhorn | 4,517 | 2.02% | |
Republican | Janet McNulty | 4,404 | 1.97% | |
Republican | Don Lindsay | 3,503 | 1.57% | |
Total votes | 223,653 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [3] | Solid R (flip) | May 17, 2024 |
Inside Elections [4] | Solid R (flip) | May 9, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [6] | Safe R (flip) | April 17, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [5] | Safe R (flip) | June 8, 2024 |
Elections Daily [7] | Safe R (flip) | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [8] | Solid R (flip) | November 21, 2023 |
RealClearPolitics [58] | Solid R (flip) | August 5, 2024 |
Split Ticket [59] | Safe R (flip) | October 23, 2024 |
538 [60] | Solid R (flip) | October 23, 2024 |
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Glenn Elliott (D) | $252,262 | $183,127 | $69,135 |
Jim Justice (R) | $3,680,408 | $2,881,158 | $799,423 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [27] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Glenn Elliott (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research America [F] | August 21–27, 2024 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | 62% | 10% [f] |
Kaplan Strategies | June 3, 2024 | 464 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 60% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 41% | – | 31% |
Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | – | 11% |
ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 54% | 1% | 13% |
co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | – | 28% |
Tarrance Group (R) [G] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | – | 21% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | – | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Alex Mooney (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 31% | 31% | – |
Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | – |
ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 1% | 18% |
co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% |
Tarrance Group (R) [G] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarrance Group (R) [G] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (I) | Jim Justice (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Tarrance Group (R) [G] | September 24–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jim Justice | 514,079 | 68.75% | +22.49% | |
Democratic | Glenn Elliott | 207,548 | 27.76% | −21.81% | |
Libertarian | David Moran | 26,075 | 3.49% | −0.68% | |
Total votes | 747,702 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Independent |
Justice won both congressional districts. [64]
District | Elliott | Justice | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 27% | 70% | Carol Miller |
2nd | 29% | 68% | Alex Mooney (118th Congress) |
Riley Moore (119th Congress) |
Joseph Anthony Manchin III is an American politician and businessman serving as the senior United States senator from West Virginia, a seat he has held since 2010. Manchin was the 34th governor of West Virginia from 2005 to 2010 and the 27th secretary of state of West Virginia from 2001 to 2005. He became the state's senior U.S. senator when Jay Rockefeller left office in 2015 and was West Virginia's only congressional Democrat until 2024, when he registered as an independent. Before entering politics, Manchin helped found and was the president of Enersystems, a coal brokerage company his family owns and operates.
From the time of the Great Depression through the 1990s, the politics of West Virginia were largely dominated by the Democratic Party. In the 2000 presidential election, George W. Bush claimed a surprise victory over Al Gore, with 52% of the vote; he won West Virginia again in 2004, with 56% of the vote. West Virginia is now a heavily Republican state, with John McCain winning the state in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
The West Virginia Democratic Party is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the U.S. state of West Virginia.
Alexander Xavier Mooney is an American politician serving since 2015 as the U.S. representative from West Virginia's 2nd congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, he represented the 3rd district in the Maryland State Senate from 1999 to 2011 and is a former chair of the Maryland Republican Party. He is the first Hispanic person elected to Congress from West Virginia.
The 2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 6, 2012, to elect one of West Virginia's two members of the U.S. Senate for a six-year term. In a rematch of the 2010 special election, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Manchin won re-election to a first full term against the Republican nominee, John Raese. Notably, Manchin outperformed Barack Obama in the concurrent presidential election by 25.06 percentage points in vote share, and by 50.86 percentage points on margin.
The 2010 United States Senate special election in West Virginia was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Senator Robert Byrd died in office on June 28, 2010. Democratic Governor Joe Manchin appointed Carte Goodwin to temporarily fill the vacancy. Goodwin pledged to not run for election to the seat in exchange for the appointment. This was the first open U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia since 1984 and the first in this seat since 1956. Manchin won the open seat and served out the remainder of Byrd's elected term, which ended on January 3, 2013.
The 2016 West Virginia gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor of West Virginia, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on May 10.
The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of West Virginia, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
James Conley Justice II is an American businessman and politician who is a United States senator-elect from West Virginia. A member of the Republican Party, he has served as the 36th governor of West Virginia since 2017. Justice was once a billionaire, but his net worth had declined to $513.3 million as of 2021. He inherited a coal mining business from his father that included 94 companies, including the Greenbrier, a luxury resort and National Historic Landmark in White Sulphur Springs.
The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
The 2020 West Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of West Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the West Virginia, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The filing deadline was January 27, 2018. The primary elections were held on May 8, 2018. The elections coincided with the other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of West Virginia, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2024 United States Senate elections were held on November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Regularly scheduled elections were held for 33 out of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, plus one seat in a special election. Senators are divided into 3 classes whose 6-year terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every 2 years. Class 1 senators faced election in 2024. Republicans flipped four Democratic-held seats, regaining a Senate majority for the first time since 2021.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Tim Sheehy. Sheehy's victory gave Republicans control of both of Montana's Senate seats for the first time since 1911. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024. Although Tester outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election by 12.8 points, which was the strongest overperformance of any Democratic Senate candidate, it was still not enough to win, as Donald Trump carried Montana by nearly 20 points.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the State of West Virginia, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
The 2024 West Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of West Virginia, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey was elected to his first term in office after defeating Democratic Huntington mayor Steve Williams in the general election. Incumbent Republican Jim Justice was term-limited and was unable to seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office; he instead ran for the U.S. Senate.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the State of West Virginia, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on May 14, 2024.
West Virginia held elections on November 5, 2024. Primary elections were held on May 14, 2024.
Glenn Elliott is an American politician who served as mayor of Wheeling, West Virginia from 2016 to 2024 and as a legislative assistant in the U.S. Senate to Robert Byrd from 1994 to 1999. He is a member of the Democratic Party.
West Virginia's other House Republican, Rep. Carol Miller, said she has no plans to run for the Senate.
Mooney is 'going to be crushed,' said former Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.), a Justice supporter who lost to Mooney in a 2022 House primary due to Trump's endorsement.