2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
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Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections will take place on May 14, 2024. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (first elected in 2010) initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but announced in November 2023 that he will not seek a third full term in office. [2] Manchin has been West Virginia's only congressional Democrat since 2015 and the state's only Democratic statewide officeholder since 2021. However, Manchin has expressed interest in an independent bid should Don Blankenship become the Democratic nominee. [3]

Background

West Virginia voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each election from 1932 to 1996 except for 1956, 1972 and 1984. The last time West Virginia voted Republican in a presidential race by a single digit-margin was when George W. Bush won the state in 2000 by 6.3 percentage points; the state has gone to the Republican nominee by double digits in each election since, with Donald Trump overwhelmingly winning the state by about 40 points in both 2016 and 2020. Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia, [4] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.

The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle. [5] Notable Republicans who have announced candidacies for the seat include U.S. Representative Alex Mooney [6] and Governor Jim Justice. [7]

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win over the seat even if the incumbent sought reelection. [8] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin. [9] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. The last time Republicans won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956. If Republicans win this seat as expected, it will be the first time since 1958 that both of West Virginia's US Senate seats are in Republican hands, and if they also win both U.S. House seats, it will mark the first time since 1923 that West Virginia’s congressional delegation is entirely Republican.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

  • Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator (considering independent bid, endorsed Elliott) [2] [13]

Endorsements

Glenn Elliott
U.S. senators
Zach Shrewsbury
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Zachary Shrewsbury (D)$190,545$139,586$50,959
Glenn Elliot (D)$110,207$29,058$81,149
Source: Federal Election Commission [18]

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Don Blankenship
Democratic Glenn Elliott
Democratic Zachary Shrewsbury
Total votes

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Justice
Federal officials
U.S. senators
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Alex Mooney
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jim Justice (R)$2,577,752$1,516,541$1,061,211
Alex Mooney (R)$3,182,358$1,887,585$1,294,772
Source: Federal Election Commission [18]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Jim
Justice		Alex
Mooney		OtherUndecided
Research America [upper-alpha 1] April 3–9, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%66%24%4%6%
Emerson College March 19–21, 2024735 (LV)± 3.6%54%17%1%22%
American Pulse Research
& Polling (R) [upper-alpha 2] 		November 13–14, 2023414 (LV)± 4.8%56%20%3% [lower-alpha 2] 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates [upper-alpha 3] September 11–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%62%23%–15%
Research America August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%58%26%–16%
Orion Strategies [upper-alpha 4] June 17–20, 2023651 (LV)± 6.0%56%19%9%16%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023796 (RV)± 3.7%53%12%–35%
co/efficient April 24–25, 2023753 (LV)± 3.5%45%17%–38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Jim
Justice		Alex
Mooney		Patrick
Morrisey		Undecided
National Public Affairs (R) March 14–17, 2023360 (LV)± 5.2%43%21%10%24%
Tarrance Group (R) February 5–7, 2023609 (LV) [lower-alpha 3] ± 4.1%53%16%21%8%

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Bryan Bird
Republican Jim Justice
Republican Zane Lawhorn
Republican Don Lindsay
Republican Bryan McKinney
Republican Janet McNulty
Republican Alex Mooney
Total votes

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [46] Solid R (flip)November 9, 2023
Inside Elections [47] Solid R (flip)November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] Safe R (flip)November 9, 2023
Elections Daily [9] Safe R (flip)May 4, 2023
CNalysis [49] Solid R (flip)November 21, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Manchin (D)		Jim
Justice (R)		Undecided
Emerson College September 24–26, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%28%41%31%
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 5] September 24–26, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%43% [lower-alpha 4] 49%8%
Research America August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%38%51%11%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%32%54%14% [lower-alpha 5]
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%29%43%28%
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 5] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%42%52%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%32%47%21%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%41%37%22%
Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Manchin (D)		Alex
Mooney (R)		OtherUndecided
Emerson College Oct 1-4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%37%31%31%
Research America August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%45%41%14%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%40%41%1%18%
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%36%30%–34%
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 5] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%55%40%–5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%38%45%12%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%49%28%16%7%
Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Manchin (D)		Patrick
Morrisey (R)		OtherUndecided
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 5] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%52%42%–6%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%36%50%9%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%50%29%7%16%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Bryan McKinney with 2%; Zane Lawhorn with 1%
  3. ↑ Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  4. ↑ This poll asked about a scenario in which Manchin ran as an independent.
  5. ↑ Includes Some other candidate with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll commissioned by West Virginia MetroNews and The Health Plan
  2. ↑ Poll commissioned by WMOV.
  3. ↑ Poll commissioned by Jim Justice's campaign
  4. ↑ Poll commissioned by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  5. 1 2 3 4 Poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates

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References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Archived from the original on August 17, 2023. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. 1 2 Weaver, Al (November 9, 2023). "Manchin won't seek reelection in West Virginia". The Hill. Archived from the original on November 9, 2023. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
  3. 1 2 Raju, Manu (March 14, 2024). "Schumer discusses 'long-shot scenario' with Manchin: Last-ditch Senate run in West Virginia". CNN. Archived from the original on March 14, 2024. Retrieved March 23, 2024.
  4. ↑ Edmondson, Catie (October 8, 2018). "Joe Manchin's Yes on Kavanaugh Finds Sympathy in West Virginia (Published 2018)". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331. Archived from the original on June 16, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2021.
  5. ↑ Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". POLITICO. Archived from the original on August 6, 2022. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  6. 1 2 "West Virginia Congressman Alex Mooney says he will run for Manchin's Senate seat". WOWK 13 News. November 15, 2022. Archived from the original on November 15, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
  7. 1 2 Staff, WDTV News (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Justice announces run for U.S. Senate". www.wdtv.com. Archived from the original on April 27, 2023. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  8. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (January 24, 2023). "Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Archived from the original on January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  9. 1 2 Cunningham, Eric (May 4, 2023). "Jim Justice's Announcement Moves West Virginia's Senate Race to Safe Republican". Elections Daily. Archived from the original on May 21, 2023. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  10. ↑ Young, Charles (January 26, 2024). "Don Blankenship files to run for US Senate — as a Democrat". WV News. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  11. ↑ Adams, Steven (January 16, 2024). "Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, a Democrat, files for U.S. Senate run". The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register . Retrieved January 16, 2024.
  12. ↑ Fernandez, Esteban (November 18, 2023). "Democracy dinner kicks off election season for Marion County Democrats". Times West Virginian . Retrieved November 19, 2023.
  13. 1 2 Willingham, Leah (April 22, 2024). "In race for his Senate seat, Joe Manchin endorses West Virginia Democratic Mayor Glenn Elliott". The Associated Press . Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  14. 1 2 3 Beard, David (November 30, 2023). "Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Zach Shrewsbury holds campaign kickoff rally in Morgantown". The Dominion Post .
  15. 1 2 Klein, Howie (October 22, 2023). "Can A Real Democrat Defeat Joe Manchin AND Jim Justice?". Blue America. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  16. ↑ "Meet Our 2022 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  17. ↑ "ENDORSEMENTS - Progressive Democrats of America". February 22, 2021. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  18. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - West Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on August 11, 2023. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  19. 1 2 3 4 "WV SOS - Elections - Candidate - Online Data Services". apps.sos.wv.gov. Retrieved January 10, 2024.
  20. 1 2 Adams, Steven (November 10, 2023). "Reaction Pours In to Manchin's Impending Senate Retirement". The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register . Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  21. ↑ "GOP candidates, voters rally in Weirton". Wierton Daily Times. October 17, 2022. Archived from the original on October 17, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
  22. ↑ Everett, Burgess; Beavers, Olivia (December 5, 2022). "Red-state rodeos to set GOP's 2024 Senate chances". Politico . Archived from the original on December 5, 2022. Retrieved December 5, 2022. West Virginia's other House Republican, Rep. Carol Miller, said she has no plans to run for the Senate.
  23. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Archived from the original on July 21, 2023. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  24. ↑ "AG Morrisey Announces Run For Governor". April 4, 2023. Archived from the original on April 4, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2023.
  25. ↑ Huynh, Anjali (October 18, 2023). "Trump Endorses Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia Senate Race". The New York Times. Archived from the original on October 19, 2023. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
  26. ↑ "Gov. Jim Justice receives another endorsement in Senate race". DC News Now | Washington, DC. December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  27. 1 2 "Republican Gov. Jim Justice jumps into West Virginia 2024 Senate race. What did Mitt Romney say?". Deseret News. April 28, 2023. Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  28. ↑ Tsirkin, Julie; Bowman, Bridget (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Jim Justice announces West Virginia Senate run, kicking off heated GOP primary". NBC News . Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  29. ↑ "Justice Begins Campaign For U.S. Senate". West Virginia Public Broadcasting . April 27, 2023. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  30. ↑ "U.S. Senator Tom Cotton Endorses Governor Jim Justice for U.S. Senate". October 21, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
  31. ↑ "Moore Capito endorses Justice, and Justice doesn't yet say if he'll return that". September 13, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
  32. 1 2 Adams, Steven Allen (April 28, 2023). "Justice all in on US senate race". The Inter-Mountain. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  33. ↑ "'Commonsense' GOP group jumps into open primaries". Punchbowl News. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  34. ↑ "WV Coal Association Endorses Slate of Pro-Coal Candidates for 2024 Election". www.wvcoal.com. Archived from the original on September 2, 2023. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  35. ↑ Elkin, Elizabeth (April 21, 2023). "Cruz backs Alex Mooney in West Virginia Senate race as GOP works to unseat Joe Manchin". Fox News . Archived from the original on April 23, 2023. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
  36. 1 2 3 Adams, Steven (July 8, 2023). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul rallies for Mooney in Huntington". Weirton Daily Times. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  37. ↑ Campbell, Chase (March 8, 2023). "Political rally with congressmen Alex Mooney and Jim Jordan to take place". www.wtap.com. Archived from the original on May 7, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  38. 1 2 3 4 5 McElhinny, Brad (April 19, 2023). "As Senate race heats up, Justice says he's not bothered by Mooney's early endorsements from legislators". Archived from the original on May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  39. 1 2 3 4 Adkins, Roger (April 23, 2023). "Mooney picking up support in US Senate race; Justice says he's unconcerned". The Herald-Dispatch. Archived from the original on May 1, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  40. ↑ "Alex Mooney Endorsed By Citizens United Political Victory Fund In West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Primary Election". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. October 30, 2013. Archived from the original on April 14, 2023. Retrieved April 14, 2023.
  41. ↑ "Club for Growth moves to stop Jim Justice for Senate coronation". Politico . April 4, 2023. Archived from the original on April 4, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2023.
  42. ↑ "Promote Mooney to the Senate". Eagle Forum. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  43. ↑ Bowman, Jessico (August 28, 2023). "The Republican Liberty Caucus endorses Alex Mooney for U.S. Senate in West Virginia". Republican Liberty Caucus. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  44. ↑ "Mooney outraises Manchin in U.S. Senate campaign reports". Archived from the original on April 20, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  45. ↑ Telegraph, CHARLES OWENS Bluefield Daily (September 26, 2023). "West Virginia Republican Assembly endorses Mooney for U.S. Senate". Bluefield Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  46. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 30, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  47. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  48. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Archived from the original on January 26, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  49. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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