2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
Flag of West Virginia.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
  Jim Justice Rock Branch Elementary 2023.jpg Glenn Elliott WV.jpg
Nominee Jim Justice Glenn Elliott
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote514,079207,548
Percentage68.75%27.76%

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia results map by county.svg
County results
Justice:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Independent

Elected U.S. senator

Jim Justice
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Democratic Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott and Republican Governor Jim Justice were seeking their first term in office. Justice will succeed independent incumbent Joe Manchin, who did not seek a third full term. [1]

Contents

Manchin, a Democrat until his final year in the senate, announced he would not run for re-election shortly before switching to independent. [2] He endorsed Elliott, who won the Democratic nomination with 45% of the vote against political activist Zach Shrewsbury and businessman Don Blankenship. Justice won the Republican nomination with 62% of the vote against Congressman Alex Mooney.

Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, the absence of Manchin, and being held concurrently with a presidential race in a state in which Donald Trump was expected to win by a wide margin, this seat was universally expected to be easily picked up by Republicans in 2024. [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] Elected Republicans last held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1931. [a] This is the first time the Republicans won this Senate seat since 1956. This is the first time since 2014 that Republicans won an open seat. West Virginia will also make one of several states to have a younger senior senator (Shelley Moore Capito) and an older junior senator (Justice).

Background

Manchin saw electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia, [9] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.

The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle. [10] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat are Congressman Alex Mooney [11] and Governor Jim Justice. [12]

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought re-election. [13] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin. [7] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary. [14]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Glenn Elliott
U.S. senators
Local officials
Labor Unions
Zach Shrewsbury
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Zachary Shrewsbury (D)$295,678$238,895$56,782
Glenn Elliott (D)$125,407$60,071$65,335
Don Blankenship (D)$1,000$0$1,085
Source: Federal Election Commission [27]

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Elliott
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Shrewsbury
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Blankenship
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Tie
30-40% 2024 West Virginia Democratic Senate primary results by county map.svg
Results by county:
  Elliott
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Shrewsbury
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Blankenship
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Tie
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Glenn Elliott 46,176 45.40%
Democratic Zach Shrewsbury 36,75436.14%
Democratic Don Blankenship 18,77818.46%
Total votes101,708 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Justice
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Alex Mooney
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jim Justice (R)$2,956,027$2,024,749$931,451
Alex Mooney (R)$3,266,887$2,629,525$637,362
Source: Federal Election Commission [27]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Alex
Mooney
OtherUndecided
Emerson College May 2–5, 2024558 (LV)± 4.1%60%30%10% [c]
Research America [A] April 24 – May 1, 2024407 (LV)± 4.9%67%23%7%3%
Osage Research [B] April 22–24, 2024400(LV)± 4.9%49%35%5%11%
NMB Research April 20–22, 2024500(LV)± 4.38%60%24%16%
Research America [A] April 3–9, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%66%24%4%6%
Emerson College March 19–21, 2024735 (LV)± 3.6%54%17%1%22%
American Pulse Research
& Polling (R)
[C]
November 13–14, 2023414 (LV)± 4.8%56%20%3% [d] 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates [D] September 11–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%62%23%15%
Research America [A] August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%58%26%16%
Orion Strategies [E] June 17–20, 2023651 (LV)± 6.0%56%19%9%16%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023796 (RV)± 3.7%53%12%35%
co/efficient April 24–25, 2023753 (LV)± 3.5%45%17%38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Alex
Mooney
Patrick
Morrisey
Undecided
National Public Affairs (R) March 14–17, 2023360 (LV)± 5.2%43%21%10%24%
Tarrance Group (R) February 5–7, 2023609 (LV) [e] ± 4.1%53%16%21%8%

Results

Results by county:
Justice
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Mooney
40-50%
60-70% 2024 West Virginia Republican Senate primary results by county map.svg
Results by county:
  Justice
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Mooney
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Justice 138,307 61.84%
Republican Alex Mooney 59,34826.54%
Republican Bryan Bird7,0013.13%
Republican Bryan McKinney6,5732.94%
Republican Zane Lawhorn4,5172.02%
Republican Janet McNulty4,4041.97%
Republican Don Lindsay3,5031.57%
Total votes223,653 100.00%

Other candidates

Independents

Declined

New Progressive Party

Filed paperwork

  • Michael Sigmon [57]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [3] Solid R (flip)May 17, 2024
Inside Elections [4] Solid R (flip)May 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [6] Safe R (flip)April 17, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [5] Safe R (flip)June 8, 2024
Elections Daily [7] Safe R (flip)May 4, 2023
CNalysis [8] Solid R (flip)November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [58] Solid R (flip)August 5, 2024
Split Ticket [59] Safe R (flip)October 23, 2024
538 [60] Solid R (flip)October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Glenn Elliott (D)
U.S. senators
Jim Justice (R)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Glenn Elliott (D)$252,262$183,127$69,135
Jim Justice (R)$3,680,408$2,881,158$799,423
Source: Federal Election Commission [27]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Glenn
Elliott (D)
Jim
Justice (R)
Undecided
Research America [F] August 21–27, 2024400 (RV)± 4.9%28%62%10% [f]
Kaplan Strategies June 3, 2024464 (RV)± 4.6%27%60%13%
Hypothetical polling
Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Jim
Justice (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%28%41%31%
Research America August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%38%51%11%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%32%54%1%13%
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%29%43%28%
Tarrance Group (R) [G] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%42%52%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%32%47%21%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%41%37%22%
Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Alex
Mooney (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%37%31%31%
Research America August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%45%41%14%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%40%41%1%18%
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%36%30%34%
Tarrance Group (R) [G] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%55%40%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%38%45%12%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%49%28%16%7%
Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
OtherUndecided
Tarrance Group (R) [G] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%52%42%6%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%36%50%9%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%50%29%7%16%
Joe Manchin as an Independent vs. Jim Justice
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (I)
Jim
Justice (R)
Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R) [G] September 24–26, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%43%49%8%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Jim Justice 514,079 68.75% +22.49%
Democratic Glenn Elliott207,54827.76%−21.81%
Libertarian David Moran26,0753.49%−0.68%
Total votes747,702 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Independent

By congressional district

Justice won both congressional districts. [64]

DistrictElliottJusticeRepresentative
1st 27%70% Carol Miller
2nd 29%68% Alex Mooney (118th Congress)
Riley Moore (119th Congress)

Notes

  1. Republicans held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1958 when Republican John Hoblitzell was appointed to continue the term of Democrat Matthew M. Neely before losing his bid to finish Neely's term in a special election the same year.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Zane Lawhorn with 3%; Bryan Bird, Bryan McKinney, and Janet McNulty with 2%; Don Lindsay with 1%
  4. Bryan McKinney with 2%; Zane Lawhorn with 1%
  5. Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  6. "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews and The Health Plan
  2. Poll sponsored by Mooney's campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by WMOV
  4. Poll sponsored by Justice's campaign
  5. Poll sponsored by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  6. Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews
  7. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates

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Official campaign websites