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| Available in | English |
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| Founded | 31 December 2021 [1] |
| Country of origin | United States |
| Founder(s) | Lakshya Jain Harrison Lavelle Armin Thomas |
Split Ticket is an American political forecasting website that was founded in 2021. The website predicts elections for the United States presidential election by state, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and gubernatorial elections.
The website was founded in 2021 by Lakshya Jain, Harrison Lavelle, and Armin Thomas. The interest for the website initially came from a Twitter community, known as Election Twitter. Leon Sit joined the website in 2022, and Max McCall joined in 2024. [2] Jain first entered political media following the 2016 United States presidential election, and the surprise that came from the unexpected result. [3]
In 2023, they used a "wins above replacement" method to determine what candidates over performed expectations, based on the PVI and the political environment. They found that Joe Manchin and Jon Tester were the two winning candidates that performed the best, above what was expected. [4] They also found that Republican Problem Solvers and Blue Dogs performed better in both caucuses and the 2022 general election. [5] [6]
In 2024, the website partnered with Politico to create a game in which the user plays as a campaign manager. [7] [8] The game was created an algorithm that split U.S. counties into separate groups based on how they would vote. [9] They also published a New York Times opinion article about campaign money spent on abortion ads. [10] [11]
In making predictions, the website focuses on polling aggregators that factor in how old a poll is, quality of other polls, population, and sample size. [11]
Raymond Jon Tester is an American politician and farmer serving since 2007 as the senior United States senator from Montana. A member of the Democratic Party, he is the dean of Montana's congressional delegation and the only Democrat who holds statewide office in Montana. He served in the Montana Senate from 1999 to 2007, and as its president for his last two years in the chamber.
The 2006 United States Senate election in Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held June 6. Incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns ran for re-election to a fourth term, but lost to Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 0.87%, or 3,562 votes out of 406,505 cast. This made the election the second-closest race of the 2006 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.
The 2012 United States Senate elections were held on November 6, 2012, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate, all Class 1 seats, being contested in regular elections whose winners would serve 6-year terms beginning January 3, 2013, with the 113th Congress. Democrats had 21 seats up for election, plus 1 Independent, and 1 Independent Democrat, while the Republicans only had 10 seats up for election. The presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, elections for governors in 14 states and territories, and many state and local elections were also held on the same day.
The 2010 United States Senate election in Colorado took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. In December 2008, President-elect Barack Obama nominated incumbent U.S. Senator Ken Salazar as Secretary of the Interior. After Salazar resigned from his seat, Democratic governor Bill Ritter appointed Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet to fill the seat.
The 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Voters in each state and the District of Columbia will choose electors to the Electoral College, who will then elect a president and vice president for a term of four years.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Delaware will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Delaware. Democratic congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester, Republican businessman Eric Hansen, and Delaware Independent former state senator Michael Katz are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed Democratic incumbent Tom Carper, who is not seeking a fifth term.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term. He is being challenged by Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maryland. Democratic Prince George's County executive Angela Alsobrooks and Republican former governor Larry Hogan are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed Democratic incumbent Ben Cardin, who is not seeking re-election to a fourth term.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Massachusetts. Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Warren is seeking a third term. She is being challenged by Republican attorney John Deaton. Primary elections took place on September 3, 2024.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Nebraska. Republican incumbent Deb Fischer is seeking a third term. She is being challenged by independent union leader Dan Osborn. This will be the first time since 1954 when both of Nebraska's U.S. Senate seats were concurrently up for election due to a special election for Nebraska's other Senate seat.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term. He is being challenged by Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.
Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates.
The 2024 United States Senate election in New York will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New York. Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand is seeking a third term. She is being challenged by Republican businessman Mike Sapraicone. Primary elections took place on June 25, 2024.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia will participate. Nebraska voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes.
The 2024 United States presidential election in New York is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New York voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York has 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.