G. Elliott Morris | |
---|---|
Born | George Elliott Morris June 7, 1996 |
Education | University of Texas at Austin (BA) |
Occupation(s) | Data journalist Election forecaster |
Employer(s) | The Economist ABC News |
Website | Official website |
George Elliott Morris (born June 7, 1996) is an American data journalist who is best known for his work on election polling and predictive analytics. From 2018 to 2023, Morris was a data journalist for The Economist . In 2023, he became the editorial director of data analytics at ABC News including FiveThirtyEight .
Morris was born in 1996. [1] [2] He graduated from the University of Texas at Austin in 2018, with undergraduate degrees in government and history. [3] While still an undergraduate, Morris became the "breakout star of the 2018 election" for his project models correctly predicting that the Democrats would regain the House. [1]
After graduating from the University of Texas at Austin, Morris began working for The Economist. In February 2020, Morris referred to bad 2016 U.S. presidential election predictions as "lying to people" and "editorial malpractice". [4] He later said that polls in 2016 did not account for education, meaning college educated voters were over-represented, which overstated the lead that Hillary Clinton actually had. [5]
In March 2020, Morris and The Economist published a forecast for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the first major model predicting the election's outcome. [6] On August 1, 2020, his model gave Joe Biden an 87 percent chance of winning the election, drawing criticism from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight who said: "I am not necessarily convinced. It's not just that polls could move. It's a question of, like, how well can pollsters predict turnout when the mechanics of voting have really changed?" [7] Morris has had a public feud with Silver, leading to Silver blocking him on Twitter. [8]
In May 2023, ABC News hired Morris to lead FiveThirtyEight as editorial director of data analytics following Silver's exit from the site. [9]
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count.
YouGov plc is a British international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm headquartered in the UK with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.
SurveyUSA is a polling firm in the United States. It conducts market research for corporations and interest groups, but is best known for conducting opinion polls for various political offices and questions. SurveyUSA conducts these opinion polls under contract by over 50 television stations . The difference between SurveyUSA and other telephone polling firms is twofold. First, SurveyUSA does not use live call center employees, but an automated system. Taped questions are asked of the respondent by a professional announcer, and the respondent is invited to press a button on their touch tone telephone or record a message at a prompt designating their selection. Secondly, SurveyUSA uses more concise language, especially for ballot propositions, than competitors. This can lead to diverging results, such as for California Proposition 76, where one version of the SurveyUSA question with a one sentence description, polled significantly differently compared to another version with a three sentence description.
Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.
Nathaniel Read Silver is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. Since departing FiveThirtyEight, Silver has been publishing on his Substack blog Silver Bulletin and serves as an advisor to Polymarket.
538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. Founder Nate Silver left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin. 538's new owner Disney hired G. Elliott Morris to develop a new model. On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages. The logo was replaced, with the name 538 now used instead of FiveThirtyEight.
The PollyVote project uses the high-profile application of predicting U.S. presidential election results to demonstrate advances in forecasting research. The project is run by political science professors and forecasting experts, one of which is J. Scott Armstrong. All procedures, data, and results are fully disclosed and freely available online.
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology.
Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party. Founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm is based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Debnam currently serves as president and CEO of PPP, while Tom Jensen serves as the firm's director.
The Marist Poll, founded in 1978, is a national public opinion poll operated by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) on the campus of Marist College in Poughkeepsie, New York. The poll was one of the first college-based public opinion polls in the United States. MIPO regularly measures public opinion, both in New York State and across the country. In 2020, polls were conducted in Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas. The Marist Poll has an 'A' rating from ABC News' FiveThirtyEight and is often cited by journalists and pundits around the world.
A poll aggregator is an entity that tracks and aggregates individual polls conducted by different organizations in order to gauge public sentiment on key civic issues such as the approval rating of a major political figure, or legislative body; or to measure likely public support for an individual candidate or political party in an upcoming election.
Carl "The Dig" Allison Diggler is a fictional American journalist. Introduced in 2015, the character was created by Blake Zeff and mostly written by Felix Biederman and Virgil Texas for CAFE, an online publisher of political news and satire, in the run-up to the 2016 United States presidential election.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) is an opinion polling center at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts.
Harry Joe Enten is an American journalist known for his former role as a senior political writer and analyst for the website FiveThirtyEight and his current job as a senior writer and analyst for CNN Politics.
The 2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Kentucky has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College.
J. Ann Selzer is an American political pollster who is the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996. Her polls of Iowa voters have a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in major elections from 2008 through 2020. She has been described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.
The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. It first publicly released polls in 2016. Trafalgar has been questioned for its methodology and for an apparent bias towards the Republican Party.
David Shor is an American data scientist and political consultant known for analyzing political polls. He serves as head of data science with Blue Rose Research in New York City, and is a senior fellow with the Center for American Progress Action Fund. Shor describes himself as a socialist and advised a number of liberal political action committees during the 2020 United States elections.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Oregon voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.