2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii
Flag of Hawaii.svg
  2020 November 5, 2024 2028  
Turnout50.3%
  Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg January 2025 Official Presidential Portrait of Donald J. Trump.jpg
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote40
Popular vote313,044193,661
Percentage60.59%37.48%

Hawaii Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
HI-24-pres-districts.svg
2024 United States Presidential Election in Hawaii by Precinct.svg

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Hawaii voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Hawaii has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]

Contents

Hawaii is a Pacific island state with its culture distinct from that of the U.S. mainland [2] and its population has an Asian American plurality, unique among the 50 states. [3] Hawaii has only voted Republican in two presidential elections since gaining statehood, in 1972 and 1984; [4] nevertheless, its support for the Democratic Party has gradually declined after reaching a peak in 2008.

Although Harris won the state comfortably, Donald Trump received the highest vote percentage for a Republican since 2004, [5] narrowing the margin by over 6% compared to 2020. It was also the first time since 2004 that the Democratic candidate failed to receive 60% of the vote in all of Hawaii's counties.

Primary elections

Democratic caucuses

The Hawaii Democratic caucuses were held on March 6, 2024.

Hawaii Democratic caucus, March 6, 2024 [6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)1,03266.0%1515
Uncommitted 45529.1%77
Marianne Williamson 503.2%0
Dean Phillips 151.0%0
Jason Palmer 60.4%0
Armando Perez-Serrato50.3%0
Total:1,563100.00%22931

Republican caucuses

The Hawaii Republican caucuses was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.

Hawaii Republican caucuses, March 12, 2024 [7]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 4,34897.08%19019
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)681.52%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)260.58%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)250.56%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)80.18%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)20.04%000
Doug Burgum (withdrawn)10.02%000
David Stuckenberg10.02%000
Total:4,479100.00%19019

General election

The Democratic Party of Hawaii attempted to disqualify the "ballot access petition" for Kennedy's newly created party, the We the People Party, on the November ballot, though the state Democratic Party was unsuccessful. [8]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [9] Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [10] Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] Safe DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [12] Safe DDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [13] Solid DDecember 30, 2023
CNN [14] Solid DJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [15] Safe DJune 12, 2024
538 [16] Solid DJune 11, 2024
RCP [17] Solid DJune 26, 2024
NBC News [18] Safe DOctober 6, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group [19] [A] April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%57%38%5%
John Zogby Strategies [20] [B] April 13–21, 2024301 (LV)55%34%11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group [19] [A] April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%42%34%8%3%0%13%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [20] [B] April 13–21, 2024301 (LV)42%48%10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [20] [B] April 13–21, 2024301 (LV)50%27%23%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic 313,044 60.59 −3.14
Republican 193,66137.48+3.21
Green 4,3870.85+0.18
Libertarian 2,7330.53−0.43
Socialism and Liberation
1,9400.38N/A
American Solidarity
9360.18N/A
Total votes516,701 100.00 N/A

By county

CountyKamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
# %# %# %# %
Hawaii 52,16362.98%28,74834.71%1,9122.31%23,41528.27%82,823
Honolulu 204,30159.93%130,48938.28%6,1311.79%73,81221.65%340,921
Kalawao 1583.33%316.67%00.00%1266.66%18
Kauai 17,67558.79%11,80339.26%5861.95%5,87219.53%30,064
Maui 38,90561.86%22,62135.97%1,3672.17%16,28425.89%62,893
Totals313,04460.59%193,66137.48%9,9961.93%119,38323.11%516,701
Swing by county:
Republican -- +5-7.5%
Republican -- +7.5-10%
Republican -- +10-12.5%
Republican -- +12.5-15%
Republican -- +>15% 2024 U.S. Presidential Hawaii County Swings.svg
Swing by county:
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
  Republican — +10-12.5%
  Republican — +12.5-15%
  Republican — +>15%

By congressional district

Harris won both congressional districts. [22]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st 61.50%36.77% Ed Case
2nd 59.74%38.14% Jill Tokuda

Analysis

Despite still voting overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate, Hawaii saw a noticeable shift to the right, with every county swinging by over 5%. Trump's margin was the best out of his three runs, having increased in every consecutive election. Trump's increased success in Hawaii was attributed by local political scientists to Hawaii's more moderate political nature and reluctance to embrace progressivism (Hawaii voted 44% against legalizing gay marriage at the same time that it gave Trump only 39% of the vote). It was also attributed to Hawaii's extremely high cost of living, with former blue-collar plantation households in Western Oahu posting some of Trump's strongest gains in the state. [23] As the only state with a plurality of Asian ethnicity, Hawaii was affected by a large national shift to the right among Asian-American voters, [24] [25] especially Filipino Americans, who represent one of the largest Asian groups in Hawaii. [26] Filipino Americans shifted to Trump in part cause of concern of China's Navy being close to the Philippines in the South China Sea and perceived Biden and the Democratic Party as ineffective against China's aggression. [27]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
  2. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. Murdock, Jack. "Discovering Hawaii's Contrasts and Cultural Resilience". The Science Survey. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
  3. Im, Jens Manuel Krogstad and Carolyne (May 1, 2025). "Key facts about Asians in the U.S." Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
  4. "Hawaii Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin". 270toWin. Retrieved June 13, 2025.
  5. Lovell, Blaze (November 12, 2024). "Trump's Support In Hawaii Has Grown Since He First Appeared On Ballots In 2016". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved June 13, 2025.
  6. "Hawaii Democratic Caucus Results". The New York Times. March 7, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  7. "Hawaii Presidential Caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
  8. Pellish, Aaron (April 20, 2024). "RFK Jr. will appear on Hawaii ballot, third state to include him". CNN. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  9. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on June 11, 2024. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  17. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  19. 1 2 "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
  20. 1 2 3 "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  21. "GENERAL ELECTION 2024 - Statewide Summary - November 5, 2024" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 13, 2024. Retrieved November 25, 2024.
  22. "Statement of Vote" (PDF). elections.hawaii.gov. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 8, 2025.
  23. "Trump support grows in blue state Hawaii". www.hawaiitribune-herald.com. Retrieved March 15, 2025.
  24. "Here's Why Asian Americans Shifted Right". Manhattan Institute. Retrieved March 15, 2025.
  25. "Asian Americans favored Harris but shifted right by 5 points". NBC News. November 6, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2025.
  26. "Did Filipino-Americans Help Trump Win Nevada?". thediplomat.com. Retrieved March 15, 2025.
  27. "Did Filipino-Americans Help Trump Win Nevada?". thediplomat.com. Retrieved March 15, 2025.