2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska

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2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Flag of Nebraska.svg
←  2018 November 5, 20242030 →
  Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE), official portrait, 118th United States Congress (cropped).jpg Osborn Headshot 1 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Deb Fischer Dan Osborn
Party Republican Independent
Popular vote499,124436,493
Percentage53.19%46.52%
2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska results map by county.svg
2024 NE Senate election by congressional district.svg
Fischer:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Osborn:     50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Deb Fischer
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Deb Fischer
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Nebraska. [1] Republican incumbent Deb Fischer was re-elected to a third term, defeating independent union leader Dan Osborn. [2] This was the first time since 1954 when both of Nebraska's U.S. Senate seats were concurrently up for election due to a special election for Nebraska's other Senate seat.

Contents

Traditionally a safe Republican seat, the race in Nebraska was described as unusually competitive and was also potentially important for determining partisan control of the Senate after the 2024 election cycle. [3]

Despite her win, Fischer's overall performance was the worst an incumbent Republican performed in a Nebraska Senate race since 1970. Osborn's performance was the best for an Independent candidate in a Nebraska Senate race, even outperforming George W. Norris who won as in Independent in 1936.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Arron Kowalski, cattle farmer and perennial candidate [5]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Deb Fischer (R)$5,694,779$3,512,236$2,694,160
Source: Federal Election Commission [6]

Results

Primary results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Fischer 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2024 United States Senate Republican primary election in Nebraska results map by county.svg
Primary results by county
  Fischer
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Deb Fischer (incumbent) 174,820 79.77%
Republican Arron Kowalski44,33420.23%
Total votes219,154 100.0%

Democratic primary

Due to Dan Osborn's independent candidacy, the Nebraska Democratic Party had originally not intended to field a candidate, planning to endorse Osborn on May 18. However, on May 15, Osborn stated that he would not accept the help of any political party. [8] This led to a condemnation by state party chair Jane Kleeb, who said that Osborn had previously promised to work with them in exchange for them not running a candidate. Due to Osborn's announcement taking place the day after the state's primary, Kleeb announced that they would be looking for a write-in candidate to run under the party banner in November. [9] However, they ultimately decided not to run a write-in candidate. [10]

Independent

Declared

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dan Osborn (I)$812,114$427,220$384,894
Source: Federal Election Commission [6]

The Legal Marijuana NOW primary attracted controversy, with one candidate, Kerry Eddy, admitting that she supported independent candidate Dan Osborn. Eddy, who was a registered Democrat until March 2024, feared that the Legal Marijuana NOW Party's nominee could pull votes away from Osborn, who supports legalizing marijuana. Eddy was recruited to run by political blogger Julia Schleck, who had outlined a plan to run a candidate who would "sweep the Legal Marijuana NOW primary and then take their name off the ballot and endorse Osborn, throwing their votes his way." Eddy denied that her intention was to drop out of the race after securing the nomination, though she said she would consider it. [12]

Party chair Mark Elworth Jr. denounced Eddy's plan as "shenangians." The party instead supported Ken Peterson, who had been recruited to run by Elworth. Peterson alleged that supporters of Osborn had repeatedly urged him to drop out of the race. Osborn's campaign denied having any involvement in the Legal Marijuana NOW primary, though a pro-Osborn super PAC spent over $30,000 supporting Eddy's campaign. [12]

Withdrew after nomination

Eliminated in primary

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kerry Eddy (LMN)$16,384$922$15,462
Source: Federal Election Commission [6]

Results

Legal Marijuana NOW primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Legal Marijuana NOW Kerry Eddy 743 70.83%
Legal Marijuana NOW Ken Peterson30629.17%
Total votes1,049 100.0%

Aftermath

After Kerry Eddy won the May primary by a wide margin, she said she was still evaluating whether or not to drop out of the race. Complicating Eddy's plan was that if she rejected the Legal Marijuana NOW Party's nomination, the party could simply name a replacement nominee. Mark Elworth Jr. pledged to seek the party's nomination for Senate if Eddy dropped out. [14] It was also suggested that Elworth could use the party's ballot line to nominate a Democrat. [8]

Eddy dropped out of the race on July 30 and endorsed Osborn, though she maintained that this had not been her intention from the start. The party had until September 3 to name a replacement nominee. [13] On August 14, the party held a convention to determine whether or not a new nominee should be named and who that nominee would be. Supporters of Eddy and Osborn were barred from participating in the convention. In response, Eddy's campaign treasurer sent a letter to party leadership arguing that they had broken the law and that if they tried to name a replacement nominee, a lawsuit could be filed. [10]

The party ultimately did not put forward a candidate. Elworth said the party did not have the resources to fight a lawsuit and that "we don’t want to deal with it." Unnamed members of the party alleged that Osborn and Eddy's supporters had taken it over in order to ensure it would not place a candidate on the ballot. Elworth called Osborn "dishonest" and said he would be voting for incumbent Deb Fischer, who opposes legalizing marijuana. [10]

Libertarian Party

In March 2024, independent candidate Dan Osborn sought the support of the Nebraska Libertarian Party. However, he decided against this, instead running as an independent without any party's support. [8]

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [15] Lean ROctober 21, 2024
Inside Elections [16] Lean ROctober 18, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Lean RSeptember 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [18] Likely ROctober 30, 2024
Elections Daily [19] Likely RNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis [20] Tilt RNovember 4, 2024
RealClearPolitics [21] Lean ROctober 15, 2024
Split Ticket [22] Lean ROctober 29, 2024
538 [23] Likely ROctober 23, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Deb Fischer (R)$7,993,392$7,922,195$582,814
Dan Osborn (I)$7,962,610$6,827,048$1,135,561
Source: Federal Election Commission [6]

Endorsements

Deb Fischer (R)

U.S. Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State executive officials

State legislators

Notable individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Deb
Fischer (R)		Dan
Osborn (I)		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
538 [39] through October 31, 2024November 1, 202446.6%44.2%9.2%Fischer +2.4
TheHill/DDHQ [40] through October 31, 2024November 1, 202448.3%47.0%4.7%Fischer +1.3
Race to the WH [41] through October 28, 2024October 30, 202447.0%46.0%7.0%Fischer +1.0
Average47.3%45.7%6.7%Fischer +1.6
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Deb
Fischer (R)		Dan
Osborn (I)		Undecided
Change Research (D) [42] [A] October 30–31, 2024600 (LV)± 4.3%47%47%5%
Torchlight Strategies (R) [43] [B] October 25–28, 2024605 (LV)± 3.9%51%44%5%
Economist/YouGov [44] October 21–28, 20241,202 (LV)± 3.5%50%43%7% [d]
NYT/Siena College [45] October 23–26, 20241,194 (LV)± 3.2%48%46%5%
1,194 (RV)± 3.1%46%47%6%
Change Research (D) [46] [A] October 18–21, 2024815 (LV)–46%48%6%
Torchlight Strategies (R) [47] [B] October 12–15, 2024625 (LV)± 3.9%51%45%4%
SurveyUSA [48] [A] October 9–12, 2024563 (LV)± 4.7%44%50%6%
Torchlight Strategies (R) [49] [B] October 5–8, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%48%42%10%
Change Research (D) [50] [A] October 3–8, 2024895 (LV)± 3.5%43%46%11%
Impact Research (D) [51] [A] October 1–3, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%48%6%
The Bullfinch Group [52] [C] September 27 – October 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%42%47%10%
SurveyUSA [53] [A] September 20–23, 2024558 (LV)± 4.8%44%45%11%
Global Strategy Group (D) [54] [D] August 26–29, 2024600 (LV)–43%42%15%
SurveyUSA [55] [E] August 23–27, 20241,293 (RV)± 3.6%39%38%23%
YouGov [56] [A] July 31 – August 12, 2024500 (RV)± 5.2%43%41%16%
Red Wave Strategy Group/
Impact Research [57] [A] 		July 8–11, 2024500 (RV)–42%42%16%
Global Strategy Group (D) [54] [D] June 3–5, 2024600 (LV)–49%36%15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [58] [A] April 24–25, 2024737 (RV)± 3.6%37%33%30%
Change Research (D) [59] [F] November 13–16, 20231,048 (LV)± 3.1%38%40%22%
Hypothetical polling

Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osborn vs. Kerry Eddy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Deb
Fischer (R)		Dan
Osborn (I)		Kerry
Eddy (LMN)		Undecided
Torchlight Strategies (R) [60] [B] July 8–11, 2024698 (LV)± 3.7%50%24%9%17%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska [61]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Deb Fischer (incumbent) 499,124 53.19% −4.50%
Independent Dan Osborn 436,49346.52%N/A
Write-in 2,7190.29%+0.22%
Total votes938,336 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Osborn won 2 of 3 congressional districts, both of which elected Republicans. [62]

DistrictFischerOsbornRepresentative
1st 49.6%50.4% Mike Flood
2nd 44%56% Don Bacon
3rd 67%33% Adrian Smith

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Plumbers Local 16, Sprinkler Fitters Local 699, and Steamfitters Local 664
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Poll sponsored by Osborn's campaign
  2. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Fischer's campaign
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Independent Center, a centrist advocacy group
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Retire Career Politicians PAC, which supports Osborn
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by Split Ticket
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety, which supports Osborn

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References

  1. ↑ "United States Senate elections, 2024". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 12, 2022.
  2. ↑ "Nebraska U.S. Senate Election Results 2024: Deb Fischer Wins". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
  3. ↑ Faris, David (September 3, 2024). "Could Nebraska Cost Republicans the Senate?". Slate. ISSN   1091-2339 . Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Sen. Deb Fischer officially announces run for a third term". KRVN . June 28, 2023. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  5. 1 2 "Nebraska Statewide Candidate List". Nebraska Secretary of State. January 5, 2024.
  6. 1 2 3 4 "2024 Election United States Senate - Nebraska". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  7. 1 2 "Official Results: Primary Election - May 14, 2024" (PDF). Secretary of State of Nebraska . Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Sanderford, Aaron (May 15, 2024). "Dan Osborn spurns Democrats, other parties whose help he sought in Senate race". Nebraska Examiner . Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  9. ↑ "Nebraska Democratic Party Statement on Dan Osborn". May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  10. 1 2 3 Sanderford, Aaron (September 4, 2024). "Legal Marijuana Now Party won't offer a nominee for Nebraska's U.S. Senate ballot". Nebraska Examiner . Retrieved September 4, 2024.
  11. ↑ Hammel, Paul (September 21, 2023). "Omaha steamfitter/union leader Dan Osborn to challenge incumbent U.S. Sen. Deb. Fischer". Nebraska Examiner . Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  12. 1 2 Wegley, Andrew (May 12, 2024). "In the Nebraska marijuana party's Senate primary, 'a daring plan' angers loyalists". Lincoln Journal Star . Retrieved May 14, 2024.
  13. 1 2 Sanderford, Aaron (July 30, 2024). "Kerry Eddy leaves Nebraska's U.S. Senate race, endorses Osborn over Fischer". Nebraska Examiner . Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  14. ↑ Wegley, Andrew (May 15, 2024). "Nebraska marijuana party candidate tied to Dan Osborn wins primary, mulls future". Lincoln Journal Star . Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  15. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report.
  16. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections.
  17. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  18. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill.
  19. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023.
  20. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis.
  21. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics .
  22. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  23. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 World-Herald, Martha Stoddard Omaha (September 21, 2023). "Former Trump adviser Conway endorses Nebraska's Fischer". Star-Herald. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  25. ↑ Sanderford, Aaron (September 11, 2024). "Fischer gets Trump's endorsement in race against Osborn". Nebraska Examiner . Retrieved October 31, 2024.
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Marans, Daniel (October 16, 2024). "Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer Touts Endorsement Of Man Convicted Of Voter Fraud, Other Disreputable Republicans". HuffPost . Retrieved October 31, 2024.
  27. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  28. ↑ "The Messenger: A PAC Dedicated to Electing GOP Women Issues First Wave of 2024 Endorsements (Exclusive)". maggieslist.org. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
  29. ↑ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Nebraska". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  30. ↑ "U.S. Sen. Fischer Earns Nebraska Farm Bureau Endorsement". KTIC 840 AM/98.3 FM/98.7 FM. February 18, 2024. Retrieved February 18, 2024.
  31. ↑ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Sen. Deb Fischer for U.S. Senate in Nebraska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. May 10, 2024.
  32. ↑ "Dan Osborn says he has the signatures needed to reach Nebraska's fall ballot as a U.S. Senate candidate". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  33. 1 2 Kurtz, Josh (November 7, 2024). "Harry Dunn, Md. delegate joined forces with their PACs for a final election push". Maryland Matters. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  34. ↑ Altimari, Daniela (October 16, 2024). "Happening in Plains sight: A competitive Nebraska Senate race". Roll Call. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
  35. 1 2 3 4 Early, Steve (March 13, 2024). "Dan Osborn Challenges Nebraska's Political Establishment with a Blue-Collar Agenda". Barn Raising Media. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
  36. 1 2 3 Beach, Brian (September 3, 2024). "Fischer, Osborn tout labor endorsements in U.S. Senate campaigns". Nebraska Public Media. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
  37. ↑ "Dan Osborn at Forward Party" . Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  38. ↑ Evans, Jordan Willow (September 13, 2024). "Reform Party Endorses Dan Osborn for Nebraska Senate Race". Independent Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  39. ↑ 538
  40. ↑ TheHill/DDHQ
  41. ↑ Race to the WH
  42. ↑ Change Research (D)
  43. ↑ Torchlight Strategies (R)
  44. ↑ Economist/YouGov
  45. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  46. ↑ Change Research (D)
  47. ↑ Torchlight Strategies (R)
  48. ↑ SurveyUSA
  49. ↑ Torchlight Strategies (R)
  50. ↑ Change Research (D)
  51. ↑ Impact Research (D)
  52. ↑ The Bullfinch Group
  53. ↑ SurveyUSA
  54. 1 2 Global Strategy Group (D)
  55. ↑ SurveyUSA
  56. ↑ YouGov
  57. ↑ Red Wave Strategy Group/
    Impact Research
  58. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  59. ↑ Change Research (D)
  60. ↑ Torchlight Strategies (R)
  61. ↑ "Official Results" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 3, 2024.
  62. ↑ https://x.com/JMilesColeman/status/1855322639801155826

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