2024 United States presidential election in Utah

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Utah

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Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Projected electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 883,818 562,566 Percentage 59.39% 37.81%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data

President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Utah took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Utah voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

Republican Donald Trump carried Utah by 21.2%, an improvement over his past two statewide victories and the widest for a presidential candidate since Mitt Romney's 47.8% win in 2012. Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Utah a state Trump would win, or a red state.

Background

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for reelection to a second term, but dropped out of the race prior to the Democratic National Convention. ^[2] Former President Donald Trump ran for reelection to a second non-consecutive term after losing to Biden in 2020. ^[3] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to qualify for the ballot in early-January but would later withdraw. ^[4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Utah Democratic presidential primary

The Utah Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden easily won the state, facing minor opposition from activist Marianne Williamson and Congressman Dean Phillips.

Popular vote share by county

  Biden

•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   >90%

Utah Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 ^[5]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	58,872	86.9%	30
Marianne Williamson	3,521	5.2%
Dean Phillips	3,024	4.5%
Gabriel Cornejo	1,503	2.2%
Frankie Lozada	859	1.3%
Total:	67,779	100%	34		34

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Utah Republican presidential caucuses

The Utah Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley in one of his weakest performances of the greater Republican primaries. The state GOP returned to organizing a caucus after its use of the primary system in 2020, which significantly lowered turnout.

Popular vote share by county

  Trump

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   >90%

  Haley

•   50–60%

Utah Republican caucus, March 5, 2024 ^[6]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	48,350	56.35%	40		40
Nikki Haley	36,621	42.68%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	826	0.96%
Total:	85,797	100.00%	40		40

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [7]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist [13]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538 [14]	Solid R	June 11, 2024
RCP [15]	Solid R	June 26, 2024
NBC News [16]	Safe R	October 6, 2024

Candidate ballot access

See also: Ballot access in the 2024 United States presidential election

As of August 2024, the following candidates have been designated as "Election Candidates": ^[17]

• Kamala Harris / Tim Walz, Democratic
• Claudia De la Cruz / Karina Garcia, unaffiliated ^[a]
• Lucifer "Justin Case" Everylove, unaffiliated
• Cornel West / Melina Abdullah, unaffiliated
• Donald Trump / JD Vance, Republican

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. lawsuit

On December 5, 2023, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. filed a lawsuit against lieutenant governor Deidre Henderson and state elections director Ryan Cowley, arguing that the state's requirement for unaffiliated candidates to attain 1,000 verified signatures before the January 8 deadline is unconstitutional and that it forces Kennedy's campaign to hire professional petition circulators. In the 2020 election, the filing deadline was August 17, and was moved up in a bill passed by the Utah State Legislature in February 2022. Campaign lawyer Paul Rossi argued that the deadline was made "to block any third-party candidates from appearing on Utah's ballot," showing "an absolute contempt for the Constitution." ^[18] A court filing was made by state attorney general Sean Reyes on December 7, stating that Henderson and Cowley have agreed to not enforce the deadline until March 5, 2024, per request of senior judge David Nuffer. ^[19] Kennedy later qualified to appear on the Utah ballot on December 28, 2023, marking the first state to award him official ballot access. ^[20] Kennedy would later withdraw from the ballot in Utah after the suspension of his campaign and endorse Donald Trump for president. ^[17]

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
ActiVote [21]	October 7–30, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	60%	40%	–
Noble Predictive Insights [22]	October 2–7, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	52%	39%	9%
		539 (LV)	± 4.2%	54%	38%	8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [23] [A]	September 27–28, 2024	612 (LV)	± 4.0%	54%	39%	7%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights [24]	October 25–28, 2024	695 (LV)	± 3.7%	54%	34%	0%	0%	1%	11% [c]
Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics [25]	October 15–19, 2024	813 (RV)	± 3.4%	61%	30%	2%	1%	–	6%
				63% [d]	31%	4%	2%	–	–
Noble Predictive Insights [22]	October 2–7, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	51%	37%	2%	1%	1%	8% [e]
		539 (LV)	± 4.2%	54%	36%	2%	0%	2%	6% [e]

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics [26]	June 4–7, 2024	857 (RV)	± 3.4%	57%	25%	18%
John Zogby Strategies [27] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	414 (LV)	–	46%	43%	11%
Noble Predictive Insights [28]	April 8–16, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	54%	26%	20%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [29]	February 29 – March 3, 2024	174 (RV)	–	46%	37%	17% [f]
		166 (LV)		46%	38%	16% [f]
Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics [30]	January 16–21, 2024	801 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	33%	24% [g]
Emerson College [31]	October 25–28, 2022	825 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	34%	19%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics [26]	June 4–7, 2024	857 (RV)	± 3.4%	49%	20%	20%	11%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights [28]	April 8–16, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	23%	13%	1%	1%	15%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [27] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	414 (LV)	–	40%	44%	16%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [27] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	414 (LV)	–	54%	36%	10%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Utah ^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	883,818	59.38%	1.26%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	562,566	37.79%	0.14%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	16,902	1.14%	1.44%
	Constitution	Joel Skousen [h] Rik Combs	8,402	0.56%	0.19%
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	8,222	0.55%	0.21%
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz [i] Karina Garcia	3,189	0.21%	0.13%
	Independent	Lucifer Everylove N/A	2,653	0.18%	N/A
	Independent	Cornel West Melina Abdullah	2,199	0.15%	N/A
	Write-in		543	0.04%
Total votes			1,488,469	100.00%

By county

Swing by county:

  Democratic — +2.5-5%

  Democratic — +0-2.5%

  Republican — +0-2.5%

  Republican — +2.5-5%

  Republican — +5-7.5%

  Republican — +7.5-10%

  Republican — +10-12.5%

County [33]	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Beaver	2,781	86.29%	394	12.22%	48	1.49%	2,387	74.07%	3,223
Box Elder	22,853	77.91%	5,274	17.98%	1,205	4.11%	17,579	59.93%	29,332
Cache	39,457	64.27%	18,718	30.49%	3,213	5.24%	20,739	33.78%	61,388
Carbon	6,719	70.53%	2,525	26.50%	283	2.97%	4,194	44.03%	9,527
Daggett	443	80.40%	101	18.33%	7	1.27%	342	62.07%	551
Davis	101,293	59.37%	59,895	35.11%	9,428	5.52%	41,398	24.26%	170,616
Duchesne	7,815	86.57%	1,009	11.18%	203	2.25%	6,806	75.39%	9,027
Emery	4,341	86.18%	603	11.97%	93	1.85%	3,738	74.21%	5,037
Garfield	2,211	78.18%	541	19.13%	76	2.69%	1,670	59.05%	2,828
Grand	2,327	43.70%	2,828	53.11%	170	3.19%	-501	-9.41%	5,325
Iron	21,571	76.59%	5,683	20.18%	912	3.23%	15,888	56.41%	28,166
Juab	5,671	86.21%	734	11.16%	173	2.63%	4,937	75.05%	6,578
Kane	3,277	72.56%	1,137	25.18%	102	2.26%	2,140	47.38%	4,516
Millard	5,558	86.16%	713	11.05%	180	2.79%	4,845	75.11%	6,451
Morgan	5,300	76.26%	1,256	18.07%	394	5.67%	4,044	58.19%	6,950
Piute	854	88.13%	94	9.70%	21	2.17%	760	78.43%	969
Rich	1,211	83.29%	214	14.72%	29	1.99%	997	68.57%	1,454
Salt Lake	221,555	42.86%	273,658	52.94%	21,678	4.20%	-52,103	-10.08%	516,891
San Juan	3,613	56.54%	2,581	40.39%	196	3.07%	1,032	16.15%	6,390
Sanpete	10,653	81.19%	1,906	14.53%	562	4.28%	8,747	66.66%	13,121
Sevier	9,526	86.67%	1,236	11.25%	229	2.08%	8,290	75.42%	10,991
Summit	10,783	41.12%	14,612	55.72%	829	3.16%	-3,829	-14.60%	26,224
Tooele	23,484	68.33%	9,560	27.82%	1,322	3.85%	13,924	40.51%	34,366
Uintah	13,599	85.37%	1,952	12.25%	378	2.38%	11,647	73.12%	15,929
Utah	203,476	66.65%	84,937	27.82%	16,858	5.53%	118,539	38.83%	305,271
Wasatch	11,495	61.42%	6,459	34.51%	762	4.07%	5,036	26.91%	18,716
Washington	73,165	74.39%	22,327	22.70%	2,860	2.91%	50,838	51.69%	98,352
Wayne	1,238	74.58%	381	22.95%	41	2.47%	857	51.63%	1,660
Weber	67,549	59.49%	41,238	36.32%	4,762	4.19%	26,311	23.17%	113,549
Totals	883,818	58.40%	562,566	37.17%	67,014	4.43%	321,252	21.23%	1,513,398

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts. ^{[34] [ user-generated source ]}

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
1st	58.54%	38.50%	Blake Moore
2nd	58.88%	38.56%	Celeste Maloy
3rd	58.26%	38.95%	John Curtis (118th Congress)
			Mike Kennedy (119th Congress)
4th	61.91%	35.23%	Burgess Owens

Analysis

A Mountain West state, Utah has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 landslide and is a strongly red state, a trait vastly owed to the state's conservative Mormon base. While the state has voted considerably less Republican in more recent presidential elections than it did in the 2000s and early 2010s, Utah remains a GOP stronghold at both the federal and state levels.

While Trump won the state handily, Utah wound up tying with Washington state for the smallest swing to the right in the nation in 2024. Trump improved his margin by only 1%, compared to the national rightward swing of 6%. ^[35]

Democrat Kamala Harris won the same three counties that Joe Biden did in 2020: Salt Lake, home to the state capital and largest city Salt Lake City; Summit, home to a handful of ski resorts and SLC suburbs; and Grand, home to Moab and nearby Arches National Park. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Grand County since William McKinley in 1900.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Utah
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Utah elections
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. De la Cruz and Garcia were nominated by the Party for Socialism and Liberation but are listed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Joel Skousen (C) and Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1% each
4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
5. Joel Skousen (C) with 0%
6. "Another candidate" with 11%
7. "Another candidate" with 24%
8. Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.
9. Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the campaign of Brian King, the Democratic nominee for Utah's gubernatorial election
2. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. Schrader, Adam; Moran, Mark (July 21, 2024). "After dropping out of race, Biden endorses Kamala Harris for president". CNBC.
3. Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
4. "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Files as presidential candidate in Utah, the first state to grant him access". Associated Press News . January 3, 2024.
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6. "Utah Republican Caucus Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.
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18. Schott, Bryan (December 5, 2023). "RFK Jr. sues Utah over ballot access requirements". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved August 6, 2024.
19. Pellish, Aaron (December 7, 2023). "Utah officials temporarily delay ballot access filing deadline after RFK Jr. lawsuit". CNN . Retrieved April 12, 2024.
20. "RFK Jr. Qualifies for His First 2024 Ballot in Utah". Yahoo News. December 29, 2023. Retrieved December 30, 2023.
21. Allis, Victor (October 31, 2024). "Trump Leads in Utah". ActiVote. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
22. "Trump Surges Ahead of Harris in Utah Showdown". Noble Predictive Insights. October 16, 2024.
23. Gehrke, Robert (October 9, 2024). "King campaign points to new poll, says it is within striking distance of Cox in Utah governor;s race". The Salt Lake Tribune .
24. "UTAH POLL OF RECORD: Republicans Lead by Double Digits Up and Down the Ballot". Noble Predictive Insights. October 30, 2024.
25. Bates, Suzanne (October 25, 2024). "Trump way ahead of Harris among Utah voters in presidential race". Deseret News.
26. Benson, Samuel (June 12, 2024). "Poll: Trump leads big among Utah voters". Deseret News.
27. "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
28. "Utah 2024 Presidential Election: Trump's Commanding Lead". Noble Predictive Insights. May 2, 2024.
29. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
30. Benson, Samuel (February 3, 2024). "A new poll shows how Trump and Biden fare against a third-party candidate in Utah". Deseret News.
31. Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "Utah 2022: Senator Mike Lee Holds 10-Point Lead Over Evan McMullin". Emerson Polling.
32. "2024 Candidate Filings – Utah Voter Information". Utah.gov. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
33. "COUNTY RESULTS" (PDF).
34. "2024 Pres by CD".
35. "A 'blue trickle' against the red wave? Utah may skew slightly to the left". FOX 13 News Utah (KSTU). November 8, 2024. Retrieved November 20, 2024.