2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

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Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nebraska voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nebraska has 5 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

A sparsely-populated and overwhelmingly-White state in the Great Plains, Nebraska has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since its statehood, making exceptions only for favorite son William Jennings Bryan; Woodrow Wilson; FDR in his first two terms; and landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson. This did not change in the long term after the ideological realignment of the two main parties in the mid-20th century, as presidential Democrats have not even been able to come within single digits of carrying the state after LBJ's narrow sweep in 1964, and the only one to win more than 40% of the state vote since then was Barack Obama who garnered 41.60% in 2008.

However, the state's 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, when Obama narrowly won the district by 1.22% in the first election where Nebraska — one of two states that can split their electoral votes, the other being Maine — awarded a Democrat any of its EVs in 44 years. This leftward shift is primarily owed to recent population growth experienced by the Omaha metro. In 2020, NE-2 flipped back to the blue column when Democrat Joe Biden won it by 6.5%. While Nebraska at-large is heavily favored to remain a safe red state in 2024, NE-2 is generally seen as either a tossup or leaning towards the Democratic candidate. ^[2]

Incumbent president Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3]

In 2024, there was a push from some Republicans who attempted to get rid of split electoral college vote to winner-takes-all voting. This was supported by Former President Donald Trump, Governor Jim Pillen and Charlie Kirk from Turning Point USA. ^{[4] [5] [6]}

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in April.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Nebraska Democratic presidential primary

The Nebraska Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Nebraska Republican presidential primary

The Nebraska Republican primary is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.

General election

Ballot access

Parties and candidates on ballot as of April 11, 2024: ^[7]

• Democratic – Joe Biden for president and Kamala Harris for vice president (presumptive)
• Legal Marijuana Now – nominees TBD
• Libertarian – nominees TBD
• Republican – Donald Trump for president, vice presidential nominee TBD

Additionally, the Kennedy/Shanahan campaign claims to have collected enough signatures to be on the ballot. ^[8]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [9]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [10]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11]	Solid R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [12]	Solid R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [13]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [14]	Solid R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1]	November 13–16, 2023	1,048 (LV)	–	53%	35%	12%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	423 (RV)	± 4.7%	47%	31%	23%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Nebraska
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. Pengelly, Martin (April 3, 2024). "Far-right podcaster prompts Nebraska move to change electoral system" – via The Guardian.
5. Kerr, Nicholas (April 3, 2024). "Lawmakers skeptical of enacting Trump-backed bill in Nebraska that could give him edge over Biden". ABC News.
6. Kamisar, Ben; Bowman, Bridget; Smith, Allan (April 3, 2024). "Trump and GOP leaders push to change Nebraska electoral votes to winner-take-all". NBC News.
7. "Political parties in Nebraska". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
8. Wegley, Andrew (April 10, 2024). "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has enough signatures to appear on Nebraska ballot, his campaign says". Omaha World-Herald . Retrieved April 19, 2024.
9. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
14. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.