2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.

2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Projected electoral vote 4 1 Popular vote 564,816 369,995 Percentage 59.32% 38.86%

County results Congressional district results Trump   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Harris   50–60%

President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes.

A sparsely populated Great Plains state, Nebraska has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since its statehood, making exceptions only for favorite son William Jennings Bryan; Woodrow Wilson; Franklin D. Roosevelt in his first two terms; and landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson. Democratic presidential candidates have not been able to come within single digits of carrying the state since Johnson carried the state in his 1964 landslide, and the only Democrat to win more than 40% of the statewide vote since then was Barack Obama, who garnered 41.60% in 2008.

Nebraska is one of two states — the other being Maine — that allocates their electoral votes separately by congressional district in addition to two electoral votes going to the statewide winner. Trump improved his percentage share of the statewide vote in this cycle compared to both 2020 and 2016.

The first district is considered to favor Republicans, with Trump carrying it by 11 points in 2020. Trump ended up winning it by 13 points in this election. ^[1]

The third district is even more heavily Republican, backing Trump by 52 points in 2020. Trump won this district by 54 points in this election. ^[1]

The 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, and in recent years has leaned Democatic. Obama narrowly won the district in 2008, marking the first time in 44 years that a Democrat won any of the state's electoral votes. In 2020, the district flipped back to the Democratic column, backing Joe Biden by 5.9%, despite the state at-large voting Republican by a landslide margin. In 2024, Trump lost the district again, as Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by five percentage points. ^{[2] [3]} This marked the first time that a Democrat had carried the district in consecutive elections since Nebraska started using the congressional district method in 1992, and by extension, the first time since 1936 that Democrats won electoral votes from the state in consecutive elections. Tim Walz, the running mate of Kamala Harris and governor of Minnesota, was born and raised in Nebraska. ^[4]

This was the first presidential election since 2012 when Nebraska's 2nd congressional district failed to back the winner of the Electoral College, the first time that a Republican candidate won the presidency without carrying the district, and the first time since 1908 that a Republican won the presidency without sweeping all of the state's electoral votes.

It was the sole electoral vote that Trump won in 2016, but failed to reclaim in 2024. It is also the only electoral college vote Harris gained that Hillary Clinton did not in 2016. ^[5]

In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split Electoral College voting with a winner-takes-all system. A second attempt failed in September. The change to winner-take-all had been supported by Trump, Governor Jim Pillen, 2nd district congressman Don Bacon, ^[6] and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. ^{[7] [8] [9]}

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Nebraska Democratic presidential primary

The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024.

Nebraska Democratic primary, May 14, 2024 ^[10]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	84,677	90.2%	28		28
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	9,199	9.8%	1
Total:	93,876	100.0%	29	5	34

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Nebraska Republican presidential primary

The Nebraska Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024.

Nebraska Republican primary, May 14, 2024 ^[11]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	167,968	79.3%	36
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	38,246	18.1%
Perry Johnson (withdrawn)	3,902	1.8%
Write-in votes [12]	1,671	0.8%
Total:	211,787	100.0%	36		36

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

Primary results by county:

  Oliver

•   20–30%
•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   >90%

  Ballay

•   20–30%
•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   60–70%
•   >90%

  Hornberger

•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Mapstead

•   30–40%
•   50–60%
•   >90%

  Rectenwald

•   40–50%

  Tie

•   20–30%
•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%

  No Votes

The Nebraska Libertarian primary was held on May 14, 2024. Six candidates were on the ballot. ^[13]

Nebraska Libertarian primary, May 14, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Chase Oliver	309	27.6%
Charles Ballay	237	21.2%
Jacob Hornberger	204	18.2%
Lars Mapstead	180	16.1%
Michael Rectenwald	120	10.7%
Mike ter Maat	69	6.2%
Total:	1,119	100.0%
Source: [14]

General election

Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Nebraska: ^[15]

• Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
• Donald Trump, Republican Party
• Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
• Jill Stein, Green Party
• Cornel West, Independent

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. successfully made it on the ballot, but took his name off of it when he withdrew.

Proposal to change to winner-take-all

In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split Electoral College voting with a winner-takes-all system. The change was prompted by a possible scenario where if Joe Biden carried the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but no other swing states, the second district could give Biden the decisive 270th electoral vote. ^[16] While Republicans control the state legislature, the attempt failed due to internal opposition. Only eight legislators voted to advance the proposal when it was brought forward at the end of the legislative session. Republican Senator Mike McDonnell, who had given the caucus a filibuster-proof majority when he switched his affiliation from Democratic, stated, "I am not voting for cloture on winner-take-all, and I am not supporting winner-take-all." ^[17]

Governor Jim Pillen said he would call a special session to adopt a winner-take-all system if it were to get the necessary support for passage. As bills in Nebraska normally take effect three months after being signed, it would need to be passed with an emergency clause and the support of two-thirds of 49 senators – meaning all 33 Republicans – in order to be effective for the election. Maureen Terry, a Democratic leader in Maine, responded to the efforts by signaling that if they were successful, the Maine legislature would also adopt a winner-take-all system to negate any benefit given to Republicans. ^[18]

After Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, a second push to change to a winner-take-all system began in September after Republican nominee Donald Trump and several of his allies spoke to Republican legislators and Pillen about instituting the change. Pillen stated he would call a special session for the change if supporters could give him commitments from the 33 legislators needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster; at the time, three of the 33 Republicans in the legislature, including McDonnell, who was expected to be the last holdout, had not committed to supporting the change. ^{[19] [20]} Due to restrictions in Maine law, Maine would not have been able to counter such a change in time for the November election, meaning the change would almost certainly have secured an extra Republican electoral vote. ^[21] McDonnell stated on September 23 that he would not vote to change the system before the election, preferring that the issue be decided by the state's voters. ^[22] The following day, Pillen stated he would not call a special session. ^[23]

Predictions

Source	Ranking (1st)	Ranking (2nd)	Ranking (3rd)	Ranking (statewide)	As of
Cook Political Report [24]	Solid R	Likely D	Solid R	Solid R	November 1, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [25]	Likely R	Likely D	Solid R	Safe R	November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [26]	Solid R	Likely D	Solid R	Safe R	August 26, 2024
CNalysis [27]	Solid R	Solid D	Solid R	Solid R	November 4, 2024
CNN [28]	Solid R	Lean D	Solid R	Solid R	October 1, 2024
The Economist [29]	Safe R	Likely D	Solid R	Safe R	October 3, 2024
538 [30]	Solid R	Likely D	Solid R	Solid R	September 13, 2024
Inside Elections [31]	Solid R	Lean D	Solid R	Solid R	August 29, 2024
NBC News [32]	Safe R	Lean D	Safe R	Safe R	October 6, 2024
YouGov [33]	Safe R	Tossup	Safe R	Safe R	October 16, 2024
Split Ticket [34]	Solid R	Likely D	Solid R	Solid R	November 1, 2024

Polling

Statewide

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
Change Research (D) [35] [A]	October 30–31, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.3%	57%	39%	4%
Torchlight Strategies (R) [36] [B]	October 25–28, 2024	605 (LV)	± 3.9%	56%	39%	5%
New York Times/Siena College [37]	October 23−26, 2024	1,194 (RV)	± 3.2%	55%	40%	5%
		1,194 (LV)		55%	40%	5%
Change Research (D) [38] [A]	October 18–21, 2024	815 (LV)	–	55%	41%	4%
Torchlight Strategies (R) [39] [B]	October 5–8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.9%	57%	37%	6%
Change Research (D) [40] [A]	October 3–8, 2024	895 (LV)	± 3.5%	58%	38%	4%
Impact Research (D) [41] [A]	October 1–3, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	58%	38%	4%
The Bullfinch Group [42] [C]	September 27 – October 1, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	53%	42%	5%
				48%	38%	14% [b]
SurveyUSA [43] [A]	September 20–23, 2024	558 (LV)	± 4.8%	56%	40%	5% [c]
Global Strategy Group (D) [44] [D]	August 26–29, 2024	600 (LV)	–	54%	37%	9%
SurveyUSA [45] [E]	August 23–27, 2024	1,293 (RV)	± 3.5%	54%	37%	9% [d]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
The Economist/YouGov [46]	October 21–28, 2024	1,206 (LV)	± 3.5%	55%	40%	0%	0%	1%	4% [e]
New York Times/Siena College [37]	October 23−26, 2024	1,194 (RV)	± 3.2%	53%	38%	0%	0%	1%	8%
		1,194 (LV)		53%	39%	0%	0%	1%	7%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Torchlight Strategies (R) [47] [B]	July 8–11, 2024	698 (LV)	± 3.7%	52%	33%	15% [f]
Public Policy Polling (D) [48] [A]	April 24–25, 2024	737 (V)	± 3.6%	57%	34%	9%
John Zogby Strategies [49] [F]	April 13–21, 2024	307 (LV)	–	50%	39%	11%
Change Research (D) [50] [G]	November 13–16, 2023	1,048 (LV)	–	53%	35%	12%
Emerson College [51]	October 1–4, 2023	423 (RV)	± 4.7%	47%	31%	23%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [49] [F]	April 13–21, 2024	307 (LV)	–	47%	39%	14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [49] [F]	April 13–21, 2024	307 (LV)	–	50%	38%	12%

Nebraska's 1st congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
The Economist/YouGov [46]	October 21–28, 2024	408 (LV)	–	51%	43%	0%	0%	3%	3% [e]

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College [37]	October 23−26, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.8%	54%	42%	4%
New York Times/Siena College [52]	September 24–26, 2024	680 (RV)	± 4.0%	51%	42%	7%
		680 (LV)		52%	43%	5%
SurveyUSA [45] [E]	August 23–27, 2024	507 (RV)	± 5.6%	47%	42%	11% [g]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
The Economist/YouGov [46]	October 21–28, 2024	393 (LV)	–	52%	44%	0%	1%	1%	2%
New York Times/Siena College [37]	October 23−26, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.8%	53%	41%	0%	0%	1%	5%
New York Times/Siena College [52]	September 24–26, 2024	680 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	41%	–	2%	2%	6%
		680 (LV)		51%	42%	–	2%	1%	4%
CNN/SSRS [53]	September 20–25, 2024	794 (LV)	± 4.0%	53%	42%	1%	1%	1%	2%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Remington Research Group (R) [54] [H]	August 14–17, 2024	656 (LV)	± 3.8%	50%	42%	2%	1%	1%	0%	4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Change Research (D) [55] [I]	August 10–17, 2024	437 (LV)	–	47%	42%	5%	6%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Torchlight Strategies (R) [47] [B]	July 8–11, 2024	300 (LV)	–	42%	42%	16% [h]
Public Policy Polling (D) [48] [A]	April 24–25, 2024	–	–	43%	46%	11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [48] [A]	April 24–25, 2024	–	–	34%	37%	9%	4%	4%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Iron Light Intelligence [56] [J]	May 17–22, 2024	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	42%	37%	13%	8%

Nebraska's 3rd congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
The Economist/YouGov [46]	October 21–28, 2024	404 (LV)	–	70%	25%	0%	0%	0%	5%

Results

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska ^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	564,816	59.32%	1.10%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	369,995	38.86%	0.31%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	6,399	0.67%	1.45%
	Legal Marijuana Now	Cornel West Melina Abdullah	3,062	0.32%	N/A
	Green	Jill Stein [i] Samson Kpadenou [j]	2,887	0.30%	N/A
	Write-in		5,023	0.53%	+0.04%
Total votes			952,182	100.00%	N/A

By congressional district

Trump won two of Nebraska's three congressional districts, while Harris won the second, which elected a Republican. ^[1]

District	Trump		Harris		Other		Representative
	#	%	#	%	#	%
1st	177,666	55.49%	136,153	42.52%	6,375	1.99%	Mike Flood
2nd	148,905	46.73%	163,541	51.32%	6,200	1.95%	Don Bacon
3rd	238,245	76.03%	70,301	22.44%	4,796	1.53%	Adrian Smith

See also

• United States presidential elections in Nebraska
• 2024 Nebraska elections
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "A third party / Independent candidate" with 7%
3. "Other" with 3%; "Undecided" with 2%
4. "Other" with 4%
5. "Other" with 1%
6. "Someone else" with 11%
7. "Other" with 5%
8. "Someone else" with 12%
9. Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
10. Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the campaign of Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for Nebraska's Class 1 Senate seat
2. Poll sponsored by the campaign of U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, who has endorsed Trump
3. Poll conducted for The Independent Center
4. Poll sponsored by Retire Career Politicians PAC
5. Poll commissioned by Split Ticket
6. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
7. Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety
8. Poll sponsored by Nebraska Examiner
9. Poll sponsored by Future Majority
10. Poll commissioned by League of American Workers

References

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