2024 Vermont gubernatorial election

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2024 Vermont gubernatorial election
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  Phil Scott 2019 (cropped).jpg Esther Charlestin.png
Nominee Phil Scott Esther Charlestin
Party Republican Democratic
Alliance Progressive
Popular vote266,43979,217
Percentage73.43%21.83%
2024 Vermont gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2024 Vermont gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg

Scott:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90-100%
No Data/Vote:     
Governor before election

Phil Scott
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Scott
Republican

The 2024 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Vermont, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fifth term, defeating the Democratic nominee, Vermont Commission on Women co-chair Esther Charlestin. [1] [2] [3] Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024. [4]

Contents

Being frequently ranked as the nation's most popular governor, [5] [6] [7] Scott has won re-election by continually increasing margins since taking office. Despite Vermont's partisan lean toward the Democratic Party, Scott was expected to easily win.

Along with New Hampshire, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. This was the best Republican performance in a Vermont gubernatorial election since 1946, with Scott winning every municipality (as he did in 2022) [8] and Scott's coattails allowed Republicans to break Democratic supermajorities in the state legislature.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

  • Peter Duval, former Underhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in 2022 (ran as a Democrat) [10]

Results

Republican primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 23,173 92.75%
Republican Undervotes [a] 1,3575.43%
Write-in 4481.79%
Republican Overvotes 70.03%
Total votes23,565 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Peter Duval, former Underhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in 2022 [13]

Declined

Endorsements

Esther Charlestin

Political parties

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Charlestin 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 2024 Vermont gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Charlestin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Esther Charlestin 24,007 46.19%
Democratic Undervotes [a] 13,40425.79%
Democratic Peter Duval9,37718.04%
Republican Phil Scott (write-in)4,5588.77%
Write-in Misc. Write-ins6011.56%
Democratic Overvotes 220.04%
Total votes51,969 100%

Progressive primary

Candidates

Withdrew after nomination

  • Marielle Blais, speech-language pathologist and nominee for state auditor in 2022 [13] [19]

Results

Progressive primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Progressive Marielle Blais 268 64.73%
Progressive Undervotes [a] 7117.11%
Republican Phil Scott (write-in)358.45%
Democratic Esther Charlestin (write-in)215.07%
Write-in Misc. Write-ins194.59%
Total votes414 100%

Independent and third party candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [22] Solid RJune 13, 2024
Inside Elections [23] Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [24] Safe RJune 4, 2024
RCP [25] Solid RJuly 13, 2024
Elections Daily [26] Safe RJuly 12, 2023
CNalysis [27] Solid RAugust 17, 2024

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Phil
Scott (R)		Esther
Charlestin (D)		Kevin
Hoyt (I)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [28] October 29 – November 2, 20241,167 (LV)± 2.9%65%26%2%2% [c] 4%
University of New Hampshire [29] August 15–19, 2024924 (LV)± 3.2%56%28%5%2% [d] 10%

Results

2024 Vermont gubernatorial election [30]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 266,439 73.43% +2.52%
Democratic/Progressive Esther Charlestin79,21721.83%−2.11%
Independent Kevin Hoyt9,3682.58%+0.52%
Green Mountain Peace and Justice June Goodband4,5121.24%N/A
Independent Eli "Poa" Mutino2,4140.67%N/A
Write-in 8910.25%−0.21
Total votes362,841 100.0%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Blank ballots
  2. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Goodband (GMPaJ) with 1%
  4. ↑ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 2%; Goodband (GMPaJ) and Mutino (I) with 0%

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References

  1. ↑ Kinzel, Bob (October 19, 2023). "If Gov. Phil Scott runs for reelection, he will remain a Republican". Vermont Public. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  2. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (August 13, 2024). "Esther Charlestin wins Democratic gubernatorial nod while statewide incumbents cruise to primary victories". VTDigger. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
  3. ↑ Thomas, Steff Danielle (November 5, 2024). "GOP Gov. Phil Scott wins reelection in blue Vermont". The Hill . Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  4. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Poll finds Scott retains highest approval rating among governors in US". WCAX News. July 24, 2023. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  6. ↑ Mueller, Julia (January 12, 2023). "Here are America's most popular and least popular governors". The Hill. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  7. ↑ MultiState. "Decoding 2023 Gubernatorial Approval Ratings". MultiState. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  8. ↑ McDonald, Zoe. "Vermont election updates: Scott, Rodgers and legislative candidates give strong showing". Vermont Public. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  9. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 11, 2024). "Phil Scott to seek 5th term as governor". VTDigger. Retrieved May 11, 2024.
  10. 1 2 Mearhoff, Sarah (August 5, 2024). "Several Democratic primaries feature candidates with conservative ties". VTDigger . Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  11. 1 2 3 Secretary of State of Vermont (August 13, 2024). "Vermont Election Night Results". electionresults.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  12. ↑ Stolk, Babette (January 5, 2024). "Middlebury educator and consultant Esther Charlestin announces run for governor". VTDigger . Retrieved January 8, 2024.
  13. 1 2 Mearhoff, Sarah (May 30, 2024). "As filing deadline passes, Vermont appears set for a sleepier statewide election season". VTDigger. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
  14. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024). "Howard Dean will not run for governor of Vermont". VTDigger . Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  15. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (October 17, 2023). "State Rep. Caleb Elder floats a 2024 race for governor". VTDigger . Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  16. ↑ Flowers, John (March 15, 2024). "Starksboro Rep. Caleb Elder to run for state Senate". Addison County Independent . Retrieved March 30, 2024.
  17. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024). "Howard Dean, Miro Weinberger rule out runs for governor of Vermont". VTDigger . Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  18. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2024). "David Zuckerman is seeking reelection to lieutenant governor's office". VTDigger . Retrieved May 2, 2024. With his reelection announcement Thursday, Zuckerman largely quashed any rumors that he would try to make the jump to higher office this year, either again to the governor's office or to Washington
  19. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (August 21, 2024). "With primary results certified, Vermont's 2024 candidates are set". VTDigger . Retrieved August 21, 2024.
  20. 1 2 "General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. May 13, 2024.
  21. ↑ Cusanelli, Michael (May 20, 2024). "Political newcomer Poa Mutino announces campaign to become governor of Vermont". WPTZ . Retrieved May 30, 2024.
  22. ↑ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  23. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  24. ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  25. ↑ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  26. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  27. ↑ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  28. ↑ University of New Hampshire
  29. ↑ University of New Hampshire
  30. ↑ "2024 General Election Canvass Report" (PDF). VT SOS. Retrieved December 10, 2024.

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