2024 Vermont gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

2024 Vermont gubernatorial election

←  2022 November 5, 2024 2026  →
Turnout	72.12%
Nominee Phil Scott Esther Charlestin Party Republican Democratic Alliance Progressive Popular vote 266,439 79,217 Percentage 73.43% 21.83%
County results Municipality results Scott:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%      No votes
Governor before election Phil Scott Republican Elected Governor Phil Scott Republican

The 2024 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Vermont, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fifth term, defeating the Democratic nominee, Vermont Commission on Women co-chair Esther Charlestin. ^{[1] [2] [3]} Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024. ^[4]

Being frequently ranked as the nation's most popular governor, ^{[5] [6] [7]} Scott has won re-election by continually increasing margins since taking office. Despite Vermont's partisan lean toward the Democratic Party, Scott was expected to easily win.

Along with New Hampshire, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. This was the best Republican performance in a Vermont gubernatorial election since 1946, with Scott winning every municipality (as he did in 2022) ^[8] and Scott's coattails allowed Republicans to break Democratic supermajorities in the state legislature.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Phil Scott, incumbent governor (2017–present) ^[9]

Withdrawn

• Peter Duval, former Underhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in 2022 (ran as a Democrat) ^[10]

Results

Republican primary results ^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Phil Scott (incumbent)	23,173	92.75%
	Republican	Undervotes [a]	1,357	5.43%
	Write-in		448	1.79%
	Republican	Overvotes	7	0.03%
Total votes			23,565	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Esther Charlestin, co-chair of the Vermont Commission on Women and former Middlebury selectman ^[12]

Eliminated in primary

• Peter Duval, former Underhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in 2022 ^[13]

Declined

• Howard Dean, former governor (1991–2003) and former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2005–2009) ^[14]
• Caleb Elder, state representative (2018–present) ^[15] (running for state senate) ^[16]
• Miro Weinberger, former mayor of Burlington (2012–2024) ^[17]
• David Zuckerman, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont (2017–2021, 2023–present) and nominee for governor in 2020 (running for re-election) ^[18]

Endorsements

Esther Charlestin

Political parties

• Vermont Democratic Party ^[10]

Results

Results by county:

  Charlestin

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

Democratic primary results ^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Esther Charlestin	24,007	46.19%
	Democratic	Undervotes [a]	13,404	25.79%
	Democratic	Peter Duval	9,377	18.04%
	Republican	Phil Scott (write-in)	4,558	8.77%
	Write-in	Misc. Write-ins	601	1.56%
	Democratic	Overvotes	22	0.04%
Total votes			51,969	100%

Progressive primary

Candidates

Withdrew after nomination

• Marielle Blais, speech-language pathologist and nominee for state auditor in 2022 ^{[13] [19]}

Results

Progressive primary results ^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Progressive	Marielle Blais	268	64.73%
	Progressive	Undervotes [a]	71	17.11%
	Republican	Phil Scott (write-in)	35	8.45%
	Democratic	Esther Charlestin (write-in)	21	5.07%
	Write-in	Misc. Write-ins	19	4.59%
Total votes			414	100%

Independent and third party candidates

Declared

• June Goodband (Green Mountain Peace and Justice Party), counselor ^[20]
• Kevin Hoyt (Independent), videographer and perennial candidate ^[20]
• Poa Mutino (Independent), program manager ^[21]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [22]	Solid R	June 13, 2024
Inside Elections [23]	Solid R	July 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [24]	Safe R	June 4, 2024
RCP [25]	Solid R	July 13, 2024
Elections Daily [26]	Safe R	July 12, 2023
CNalysis [27]	Solid R	August 17, 2024

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Phil Scott (R)	Esther Charlestin (D)	Kevin Hoyt (I)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire [28]	October 29 – November 2, 2024	1,167 (LV)	± 2.9%	65%	26%	2%	2% [c]	4%
University of New Hampshire [29]	August 15–19, 2024	924 (LV)	± 3.2%	56%	28%	5%	2% [d]	10%

Results

Swing by county ^{[30] [31]}

Legend

•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%

2024 Vermont gubernatorial election ^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Phil Scott (incumbent)	266,439	73.43%	+2.52%
	Democratic/Progressive	Esther Charlestin	79,217	21.83%	−2.11%
	Independent	Kevin Hoyt	9,368	2.58%	+0.52%
	Green Mountain Peace and Justice	June Goodband	4,512	1.24%	N/A
	Independent	Eli "Poa" Mutino	2,414	0.67%	N/A
	Write-in		891	0.25%	−0.21
Total votes			362,841	100.0%
	Republican hold

Notes

1. Blank ballots
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Goodband (GMPaJ) with 1%
4. "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 2%; Goodband (GMPaJ) and Mutino (I) with 0%

References

1. Kinzel, Bob (October 19, 2023). "If Gov. Phil Scott runs for reelection, he will remain a Republican". Vermont Public. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
2. Mearhoff, Sarah (August 13, 2024). "Esther Charlestin wins Democratic gubernatorial nod while statewide incumbents cruise to primary victories". VTDigger. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
3. Thomas, Steff Danielle (November 5, 2024). "GOP Gov. Phil Scott wins reelection in blue Vermont". The Hill . Retrieved November 17, 2024.
4. "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
5. "Poll finds Scott retains highest approval rating among governors in US". WCAX News. July 24, 2023. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
6. Mueller, Julia (January 12, 2023). "Here are America's most popular and least popular governors". The Hill. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
7. MultiState. "Decoding 2023 Gubernatorial Approval Ratings". MultiState. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
8. McDonald, Zoe. "Vermont election updates: Scott, Rodgers and legislative candidates give strong showing". Vermont Public. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
9. Mearhoff, Sarah (May 11, 2024). "Phil Scott to seek 5th term as governor". VTDigger. Retrieved May 11, 2024.
10. Mearhoff, Sarah (August 5, 2024). "Several Democratic primaries feature candidates with conservative ties". VTDigger . Retrieved August 7, 2024.
11. Secretary of State of Vermont (August 13, 2024). "Vermont Election Night Results". electionresults.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
12. Stolk, Babette (January 5, 2024). "Middlebury educator and consultant Esther Charlestin announces run for governor". VTDigger . Retrieved January 8, 2024.
13. Mearhoff, Sarah (May 30, 2024). "As filing deadline passes, Vermont appears set for a sleepier statewide election season". VTDigger. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
14. Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024). "Howard Dean will not run for governor of Vermont". VTDigger . Retrieved May 20, 2024.
15. Mearhoff, Sarah (October 17, 2023). "State Rep. Caleb Elder floats a 2024 race for governor". VTDigger . Retrieved October 18, 2023.
16. Flowers, John (March 15, 2024). "Starksboro Rep. Caleb Elder to run for state Senate". Addison County Independent . Retrieved March 30, 2024.
17. Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024). "Howard Dean, Miro Weinberger rule out runs for governor of Vermont". VTDigger . Retrieved May 20, 2024.
18. Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2024). "David Zuckerman is seeking reelection to lieutenant governor's office". VTDigger . Retrieved May 2, 2024. With his reelection announcement Thursday, Zuckerman largely quashed any rumors that he would try to make the jump to higher office this year, either again to the governor's office or to Washington
19. Mearhoff, Sarah (August 21, 2024). "With primary results certified, Vermont's 2024 candidates are set". VTDigger . Retrieved August 21, 2024.
20. "General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. May 13, 2024.
21. Cusanelli, Michael (May 20, 2024). "Political newcomer Poa Mutino announces campaign to become governor of Vermont". WPTZ . Retrieved May 30, 2024.
22. "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
23. "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
24. "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
25. "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
26. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
27. "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
28. University of New Hampshire
29. University of New Hampshire
30. "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
31. "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
32. "2024 General Election Canvass Report" (PDF). VT SOS. Retrieved December 10, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Esther Charlestin (D) for Governor
• Poa Mutino (I) for Governor
• Phil Scott (R) for Governor