2024 Missouri gubernatorial election

Last updated

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election
Flag of Missouri.svg
  2020 November 5, 20242028 
  Mike Kehoe 2025 (croppedfurther).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Mike Kehoe Crystal Quade
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,750,8021,146,173
Percentage59.14%38.72%

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2024 Missouri gubernatorial election by congressional district.svg
Kehoe:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Quade:     50–60%     70–80%

Governor before election

Mike Parson
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike Kehoe
Republican

The 2024 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a second full term in office due to having served more than two years of predecessor Eric Greitens' unexpired term following his resignation in June 2018. The Republican nominee, incumbent lieutenant governor Mike Kehoe, defeated the Democratic nominee, minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives Crystal Quade, to succeed Parson.

Contents

Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024. [1] Mike Kehoe, the incumbent lieutenant governor, won the Republican nomination, while Crystal Quade, the Minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives, won the Democratic nomination. [2] Kehoe defeated Quade in the general election with 59.1 percent of the vote. [3]

A former bellwether state, Missouri has politically trended rightward in recent years and is today a Republican stronghold at both the federal and state levels. The last Democrat to hold the office of governor in Missouri was Jay Nixon, who comfortably won re-election in 2012. In 2020, Parson won by 16.41%, the first time a Republican gubernatorial candidate won by a double-digit margin since John Ashcroft's landslide re-election in 1988.[ dubious discuss ] Major news organizations predicted that the state would elect another Republican governor in 2024. [4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Jay Ashcroft

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Eigel and Kehoe) [10]

Statewide officials

Organizations

Bill Eigel

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Kehoe) [10]

U.S. representatives

Mike Kehoe

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Eigel) [10]

Statewide officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Ashcroft
Bill
Eigel
Mike
Kehoe
OtherUndecided
Battleground Connect (R) [24] [A] July 30–31, 2024896 (LV)± 3.1%26%17%26%16% [b] 15%
Remington Research Group (R) [25] [A] July 22–24, 2024500 (LV)29%18%29%9%15%
ARW Strategies (R) [26] June 27–30, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%19%19%24%38%
Remington Research Group (R) [27] [A] June 19–20, 2024701 (LV)± 3.6%31%9%29%31%
Emerson College [28] June 17–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%23%6%20%5% [c] 46%
American Viewpoint (R) [29] [B] June 2–4, 2024800 (LV)27%16%27%30%
Peak Insights (R) [30] May 15–18, 2024400 (LV)± 5.0%22%14%20%42%
American Viewpoint (R) [29] [B] May 13–15, 2024600 (LV)33%12%23%32%
Tyson Group (R) [31] [C] April 23–26, 2024504 (LV)± 4.3%36%3%11%9% [d] 40%
YouGov/Saint Louis University [32] February 14–26, 2024414 (LV)± 5.5%28%8%10%4% [e] 49%
Remington Research Group (R) [33] [A] February 14–15, 2024706 (LV)± 3.6%35%5%22%38%
ARW Strategies (R) [34] February 5–7, 2024611 (V)± 4.0%36%13%13%38%
Remington Research Group (R) [35] [A] January 18–19, 2024806 (LV)± 3.3%34%4%20%42%
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (LV)± 4.9%18%6%19%49%
Remington Research Group (R) [37] [A] September 27–28, 2023714 (LV)± 3.4%32%5%15%48%
Remington Research Group (R) [38] [A] July 5–7, 2023706 (LV)± 3.4%34%4%14%38%
Remington Research Group (R) [39] [A] April 11–12, 2023778 (LV)± 3.4%29%4%13%54%
Remington Research Group (R) [40] [A] February 8–9, 2023820 (LV)± 3.2%28%4%9%59%
Remington Research Group (R) [41] [A] November 15–16, 2022940 (LV)± 3.0%44%4%10%42%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [42] [D] March 8–10, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%54%19%8%19%

Debates

DatesLocationAshcroftEigelKehoeLink
July 25, 2024 St. Louis ParticipantParticipantAbsent YouTube

Results

Results by county:
Kehoe
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>60%
50-60%
40-50%
30-40%
Eigel
>50%
40-50%
30-40%
Ashcroft
30-40% Missouri Governor Republican primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
Kehoe
  •   >60%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Eigel
  •   >50%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Ashcroft
  •   30–40%

Kehoe secured a modest victory, carrying 88 counties, as well as the city of St. Louis. He performed the best in Shelby County, while Eigel, the runner-up, earned his best result in Grundy County. Finally, Ashcroft narrowly surpassed Kehoe in Greene County. [43]

Republican primary results [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Kehoe 274,840 39.4
Republican Bill Eigel 227,01232.6
Republican Jay Ashcroft 162,08623.2
Republican Amber Thomsen10,6271.5
Republican Chris Wright9,3581.3
Republican Darrell McClanahan5,6370.8
Republican Robert Olson2,9750.4
Republican Jeremy Gundel2,9460.4
Republican Darren Grant1,8660.3
Total votes697,347 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Sheryl Gladney, customer service agent [8]
  • Mike Hamra, restaurant conglomerate owner [46]
  • Hollis Laster [8]
  • Eric Morrison, pastor and candidate for governor in 2016 and 2020 [8]

Disqualified

Endorsements

Mike Hamra
Crystal Quade

Statewide officials

State legislators

  • 40 state legislators [50]

Organizations

Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Sheryl
Gladney
Mike
Hamra
Crystal
Quade
OtherUndecided
Remington Research Group (R) [55] July 10–11, 2024600 (LV)± 3.8%4%23%21%9% [f] 43%
YouGov/Saint Louis University [32] February 14–26, 2024396 (LV)± 5.6%4%5%21%4%66%
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%2%39%58%

Results

Results by county:
Quade
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
30-40%
Hamra
50-60%
40-50%
30-40%
20-30%
Tie
20-30%
30-40% 2024-missouri-governor-democratic-primary.svg
Results by county:
Quade
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Hamra
  •   50-60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
  •   20–30%
Tie
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%

Quade led the race, winning slightly more than half of the votes, as well as 90 county equivalents out of 115. [g] She performed the best in Greene County, where the city of Springfield is located. Conversely, Hamra recorded his best result in Harrison County, with some more than 50% of the vote. Morrison failed to win a single county, but still managed to tie Pemiscot County, earning as many votes there as Hamra did. [56]

Democratic primary results [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Crystal Quade 189,822 50.2
Democratic Mike Hamra119,70231.7
Democratic Eric Morrison36,9859.8
Democratic Sheryl Gladney25,2876.7
Democratic Hollis Laster5,9731.6
Total votes377,769 100.0

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [57] Solid RJune 13, 2024
Inside Elections [58] Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [59] Safe RJune 4, 2024
RCP [60] Likely RJuly 13, 2024
Elections Daily [61] Safe RJuly 12, 2023
CNalysis [62] Solid RAugust 17, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Crystal Quade (D)

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Kehoe (R)
Crystal
Quade (D)
OtherUndecided
Research Co. [64] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%52%38%3%7%
Remington Research Group (R) [65] [A] October 28–29, 2024721 (LV)51%40%1% [h] 8%
ActiVote [66] October 11–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%
Remington Research Group (R) [67] [A] October 2–3, 2024753 (LV)± 3.2%51%41%1% [i] 7%
ActiVote [68] September 3 – October 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%60%40%
Emerson College [69] [E] September 12–13, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%52%36%1% [j] 11%
Remington Research Group (R) [70] [A] September 4–5, 2024940 (LV)52%34%14%
YouGov/Saint Louis University [71] August 8–16, 2024900 (LV)± 3.8%51%41%3% [k] 6%
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%38%33%29%
Hypothetical polling

Jay Ashcroft vs. Crystal Quade

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Ashcroft (R)
Crystal
Quade (D)
OtherUndecided
Remington Research Group (R) [72] [A] March 6–8, 2024713 (LV)± 3.9%53%36%11%
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%39%34%27%

Bill Eigel vs. Crystal Quade

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Bill
Eigel (R)
Crystal
Quade (D)
OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%33%34%33%

Mike Kehoe vs. Mike Hamra

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Kehoe (R)
Mike
Hamra (D)
OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%37%27%36%

Jay Ashcroft vs. Mike Hamra

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jay
Ashcroft (R)
Mike
Hamra (D)
OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%39%29%32%

Bill Eigel vs. Mike Hamra

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Bill
Eigel (R)
Mike
Hamra (D)
OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%33%30%37%

Debate

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic Libertarian Green
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
KehoeQuadeSlantzLehmann
1Sep. 20, 2024 Missouri Press Association David Lieb YouTube PPPP

Results

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election [73]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike Kehoe 1,750,802 59.14% Increase2.svg 2.03%
Democratic Crystal Quade 1,146,17338.72%Decrease2.svg 1.97%
Libertarian Bill Slantz40,9081.38%Decrease2.svg 0.25%
Green Paul Lehmann22,3590.76%Increase2.svg 0.19%
Write-in 240.00%Steady2.svg
Total votes2,960,266 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Kehoe won six of eight congressional districts. [74]

DistrictKehoeQuadeRepresentative
1st 22%75% Cori Bush (118th Congress)
Wesley Bell (119th Congress)
2nd 56%42% Ann Wagner
3rd 64%33% Blaine Luetkemeyer (118th Congress)
Bob Onder (119th Congress)
4th 70%28% Mark Alford
5th 38%60% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 69%29% Sam Graves
7th 70%28% Eric Burlison
8th 76%22% Jason Smith

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Darrell McClanahan III with 7%; Amber Thomsen with 4%; Jeremy Gundel with 2%; Robert Olson, Chris Wright, and Darren Grant with 1%
  3. Robert Olson with 2%; Darrell McClanahan, Amber Thomsen and Chris Wright with 1%; Darren Grant and Jeremy Gundel with 0%
  4. Amber Thomsen with 3%; Darren Grant and Robert Olsen with 2%; Jeremy Grundel and Chris Wright with 1%
  5. Chris Wright with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  6. Eric Morrison with 6%; Hollis Laster with 3%
  7. Missouri is made up of 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis
  8. Slantz (L) with 1%
  9. Slantz (L) with 1%
  10. "Someone else" with 1%
  11. "Other" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Poll commissioned by the Missouri Scout
  2. 1 2 Poll commissioned by the American Dream PAC, which supports Kehoe
  3. Poll sponsored by Building America's Future
  4. Poll sponsored by Committee for Liberty PAC, which supports Ashcroft
  5. Poll sponsored by The Hill

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Official campaign websites