2024 Missouri gubernatorial election

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2024 Missouri gubernatorial election
Flag of Missouri.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Mike Kehoe official photo.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Mike Kehoe Crystal Quade
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,738,0631,136,999
Percentage59.12%38.68%
2024 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Kehoe:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Quade:     50–60%     70–80%
Governor before election

Mike Parson
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike Kehoe
Republican

The 2024 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a second full term in office due to having served more than two years of predecessor Eric Greitens' unexpired term following his resignation in June 2018. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024. [1] Mike Kehoe, the incumbent lieutenant governor, won the Republican nomination, while Crystal Quade, the Minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives, won the Democratic nomination. [2] Kehoe defeated Quade in the general election with 59.2 percent of the vote. [3]

Contents

A former bellwether state, Missouri has politically trended rightward in recent years and is today a Republican stronghold at both the federal and state levels. The last Democrat to hold the office of governor in Missouri was Jay Nixon, who comfortably won re-election in 2012. In 2020, Parson won by 16.41%, the first time a Republican gubernatorial candidate won by a double-digit margin since John Ashcroft's landslide re-election in 1988. Major news organizations predicted that the state would elect another Republican governor in 2024. [4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Jay Ashcroft

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Eigel and Kehoe) [10]

Statewide officials

Organizations

Bill Eigel

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Kehoe) [10]

U.S. representatives

Mike Kehoe

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Eigel) [10]

Statewide officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Jay
Ashcroft		Bill
Eigel		Mike
Kehoe		OtherUndecided
Battleground Connect [24] [A] July 30–31, 2024896 (LV)± 3.1%26%17%26%16% [b] 15%
Remington Research Group [25] [A] July 22–24, 2024500 (LV)–29%18%29%–24%
29%13%18%–40%
ARW Strategies (R) [26] June 27–30, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%19%19%24%–38%
Remington Research (R) [27] [A] June 19–20, 2024701 (LV)± 3.6%31%9%29%–31%
Emerson College [28] June 17–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%23%6%20%5% [c] 46%
American Viewpoint [29] [B] June 2–4, 2024800 (LV)-27%16%27%-30%
Peak Insights [30] May 15–18, 2024400 (LV)± 5.0%22%14%20%-42%
American Viewpoint [29] [B] May 13–15, 2024600 (LV)-33%12%23%-32%
Tyson Group [31] [C] April 23–26, 2024504 (LV)± 4.3%36%3%11%9% [d] 40%
YouGov/Saint Louis University [32] February 14–26, 2024414 (LV)± 5.54%28%8%10%4% [e] 49%
Remington Research (R) [33] [A] February 14–15, 2024706 (LV)± 3.6%35%5%22%–38%
ARW Strategies (R) [34] February 5–7, 2024611 (V)± 3.96%36%13%13%–38%
Remington Research (R) [35] [A] January 18–19, 2024806 (LV)± 3.3%34%4%20%–42%
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (LV)± 4.9%18%6%19%–49%
Remington Research (R) [37] [A] September 27–28, 2023714 (LV)± 3.4%32%5%15%–48%
Remington Research (R) [38] [A] July 5–7, 2023706 (LV)± 3.4%34%4%14%–38%
Remington Research (R) [39] [A] November 15–16, 2022940 (LV)± 3.0%44%4%10%–42%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [40] [D] March 8–10, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%54%–19%8%19%

Debates

DatesLocationAshcroftEigelKehoeLink
July 25, 2024 St. Louis ParticipantParticipantAbsent YouTube

Results

Results by county: Kehoe .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} >60% 50-60% 40-50% 30-40% Eigel >50% 40-50% 30-40% Ashcroft 30-40% Missouri Governor Republican primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
Kehoe
  •   >60%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Eigel
  •   >50%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Ashcroft
  •   30–40%

Kehoe secured a modest victory, carrying 88 counties, as well as the city of St. Louis. He performed the best in Shelby County, while Eigel, the runner-up, earned his best result in Grundy County. Finally, Ashcroft narrowly surpassed Kehoe in Greene County. [41]

Republican primary results [42]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Kehoe 274,840 39.4
Republican Bill Eigel 227,01232.6
Republican Jay Ashcroft 162,08623.2
Republican Amber Thomsen10,6271.5
Republican Chris Wright9,3581.3
Republican Darrell McClanahan5,6370.8
Republican Robert Olson2,9750.4
Republican Jeremy Gundel2,9460.4
Republican Darren Grant1,8660.3
Total votes697,347 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Sheryl Gladney, customer service agent [8]
  • Mike Hamra, restaurant conglomerate owner [44]
  • Hollis Laster [8]
  • Eric Morrison, pastor and candidate for governor in 2016 and 2020 [8]

Disqualified

Endorsements

Mike Hamra

Newspapers

Crystal Quade

Statewide officials

State legislators

  • 40 state legislators [48]

Organizations

Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Sheryl
Gladney		Mike
Hamra		Crystal
Quade		OtherUndecided
Remington Research Group [53] July 10–22, 2024600 (LV)± 3.8%4%23%21%9%43%
YouGov/Saint Louis University [32] February 14–26, 2024396 (LV)± 5.57%4%5%21%4%66%
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%–2%39%–58%

Results

Results by county: Quade 60-70% 50-60% 40-50% 30-40% Hamra 50-60% 40-50% 30-40% 20-30% Tie 20-30% 2024-missouri-governor-democratic-primary.svg
Results by county:
Quade
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Hamra
  •   50-60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
  •   20–30%
Tie
  •   20–30%

Quade led the race, winning slightly more than half of the votes, as well as 90 county equivalents out of 115. [f] She performed the best in Greene County, where the city of Springfield is located. Conversely, Hamra recorded his best result in Harrison County, with some more than 50% of the vote. Morrison failed to win a single county, but still managed to tie Pemiscot County, earning as many votes there as Hamra did. [54]

Democratic primary results [42]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Crystal Quade 189,822 50.2
Democratic Mike Hamra119,70231.7
Democratic Eric Morrison36,9859.8
Democratic Sheryl Gladney25,2876.7
Democratic Hollis Laster5,9731.6
Total votes377,769 100.0

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [55] Solid RJune 13, 2024
Inside Elections [56] Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [57] Safe RJune 4, 2024
RCP [58] Likely RJuly 13, 2024
Elections Daily [59] Safe RJuly 12, 2023
CNalysis [60] Solid RAugust 17, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Crystal Quade (D)

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Kehoe (R)		Crystal
Quade (D)		OtherUndecided
Research Co. [62] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%52%38%3%7%
Remington Research Group [63] [A] October 28–29, 2024721 (LV)–51%40%1% [g] 8%
ActiVote [64] October 11–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%––
Remington Research Group [65] [A] October 2–3, 2024753 (LV)± 3.2%51%41%1% [h] 7%
ActiVote [66] September 3 – October 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%60%40%––
Emerson College [67] [E] September 12–13, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%52%36%1% [i] 11%
Remington Research Group [68] [A] September 4–5, 2024940 (LV)–52%34%–14%
YouGov/Saint Louis University [69] August 8–16, 2024900 (LV)± 3.79%51%41%3% [j] 6%
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%38%33%–29%
Hypothetical polling

Jay Ashcroft vs. Crystal Quade

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Jay
Ashcroft (R)		Crystal
Quade (D)		OtherUndecided
Remington Research (R) [70] [A] March 6–8, 2024713 (LV)± 3.9%53%36%–11%
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%39%34%–27%

Bill Eigel vs. Crystal Quade

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Eigel (R)		Crystal
Quade (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%33%34%–33%

Mike Kehoe vs. Mike Hamra

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Kehoe (R)		Mike
Hamra (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%37%27%–36%

Jay Ashcroft vs. Mike Hamra

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jay
Ashcroft (R)		Mike
Hamra (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%39%29%–32%

Bill Eigel vs. Mike Hamra

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Eigel (R)		Mike
Hamra (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) [36] October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%33%30%–37%

Debate

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic Libertarian Green
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
KehoeQuadeSlantzLehmann
1Sep. 20, 2024 Missouri Press Association David Lieb YouTube PPPP

Results

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike Kehoe 1,738,063 59.12 +2.01
Democratic Crystal Quade 1,136,99938.68−2.01
Libertarian Bill Slantz40,6271.38−0.25
Green Paul Lehmann22,1360.75+0.18
Write-in 1,8910.06n/a
Total votes2,939,716 100.00

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Darrell McClanahan III with 7%; Amber Thomsen with 4%; Jeremy Gundel with 2%; Robert Olson, Chris Wright, and Darren Grant with 1%
  3. ↑ Robert Olson with 2%; Darrell McClanahan, Amber Thomsen and Chris Wright with 1%; Darren Grant and Jeremy Gundel with 0%
  4. ↑ Amber Thomsen with 3%; Darren Grant and Robert Olsen with 2%; Jeremy Grundel and Chris Wright with 1%
  5. ↑ Chris Wright with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  6. ↑ Missouri is made up of 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis
  7. ↑ Slantz (L) with 1%
  8. ↑ Slantz (L) with 1%
  9. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  10. ↑ "Other" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Poll commissioned by the Missouri Scout
  2. 1 2 Poll commissioned by the American Dream PAC, which supports Kehoe
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Committee for Liberty PAC, which supports Ashcroft
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill

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References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Missouri Governor Primary Election Results". The New York Times. August 6, 2024. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  3. ↑ "Missouri Governor Election Results 2024: Quade vs. Kehoe". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
  4. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  5. ↑ Hancock, Jason (March 22, 2021). "Mike Kehoe passes on 2022 Senate run to focus on 2024 Missouri governor's race". Missouri Independent. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
  6. ↑ Shorman, Jonathan (April 6, 2023). "Missouri's top election official Jay Ashcroft launches Republican campaign for governor". The Kansas City Star.
  7. ↑ Singer, Jeff (August 17, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/17". Daily Kos . Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  9. ↑ Krull, Ryan (February 29, 2024). "Missouri GOP Candidate for Governor Was Only 'Honorary' KKK Member". Riverfront Times . Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  10. 1 2 3 Bayless, Kacen (July 27, 2024). "Donald Trump hedges endorsement for Missouri governor, backs three major GOP candidates". The Kansas City Star . Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Kehoe in fundraising lead in Missouri GOP governor's race". Fox2Now. June 25, 2024. Retrieved July 24, 2024.
  12. ↑ "Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft lands key endorsement from Missouri Right to Life". www.stltoday.com. July 18, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  13. ↑ "Missouri Republican slammed for 'racist bigotry' in anti-immigrant campaign ad". The Independent. July 25, 2024. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  14. ↑ Baechle, Shea (July 18, 2024). "Gov. Parson officially endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor". KRCG . Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  15. ↑ Hays, Brady (April 5, 2022). "Fire Fighter Association of Missouri endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
  16. ↑ "Kehoe backed by Missouri Fraternal Order of Police in gubernatorial bid". The Missouri Times. February 28, 2022. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  17. ↑ Turner, Kelton (May 19, 2022). "Kehoe backed by American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri" . Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  18. 1 2 3 "Kehoe Gains 12th Endorsement in Bid for Missouri Governor in '24". Northwest MO Info . November 28, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  19. 1 2 Brady, Hays (March 22, 2022). "Missouri Agribusiness Association endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  20. ↑ "Mike Kehoe gains gubernatorial endorsement from Missouri Chamber of Commerce". Springfield News-Leader. Archived from the original on September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Missouri Farm Bureau PAC endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor in 2024".
  22. ↑ McFarland, Matthew (August 26, 2022). "Missouri Forest Products Association endorses Kehoe for 2024 Governor race". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  23. ↑ Lamons, Jarett (June 19, 2024). "Missouri Hospital Association endorses Mike Kehoe". The Missouri Times. Retrieved June 29, 2024.
  24. ↑ Battleground Connect
  25. ↑ Remington Research Group
  26. ↑ ARW Strategies (R)
  27. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  28. ↑ Emerson College
  29. 1 2 American Viewpoint
  30. ↑ Peak Insights
  31. ↑ Tyson Group
  32. 1 2 YouGov/Saint Louis University
  33. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  34. ↑ ARW Strategies (R)
  35. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  36. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Show Me Victories (D)
  37. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  38. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  39. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  40. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  41. ↑ "2024 Missouri Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  42. 1 2 "Missouri Governor Primary Election Results 2024". The New York Times . August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  43. ↑ Sellem, Lucas (July 9, 2023). "Rep. Crystal Quade announces run for MO governor". KMOV . Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  44. ↑ Keller, Rudi (October 27, 2023). "Springfield businessman Mike Hamra joins Democratic race for Missouri governor". Missouri Independent . Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  45. ↑ Ballentine, Summer (February 27, 2024). "Exiled Missouri lawmaker blocked from running for governor as a Democrat". The Associated Press . Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  46. ↑ "Editorial: Our endorsements in Missouri's GOP and Democratic gubernatorial primaries". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. August 1, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  47. 1 2 3 "Crystal Quade gains endorsement from Planned Parenthood in 2024 gubernatorial bid". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  48. ↑ Sundrup, Jack (October 11, 2023). "Missouri Democrat Crystal Quade could face intraparty competition in bid for governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  49. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
  50. ↑ "2024 Missouri Sierra Club Election Endorsements | Sierra Club". www.sierraclub.org. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  51. 1 2 Rowden, Tim (November 27, 2023). "MLabor lining up behind Crystal Quade in her bid for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  52. ↑ Alpert, Lynn (September 25, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO endorses Crystal Quade for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  53. ↑ Remington Research Group
  54. ↑ "2024 Missouri Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  55. ↑ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  56. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  57. ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  58. ↑ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  59. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  60. ↑ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  61. ↑ "The Kansas City Star's endorsement in the Nov. 5 election for Missouri governor" . The Kansas City Star . October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  62. ↑ Research Co.
  63. ↑ Remington Research Group
  64. ↑ ActiVote
  65. ↑ Remington Research Group
  66. ↑ ActiVote
  67. ↑ Emerson College
  68. ↑ Remington Research Group
  69. ↑ YouGov/Saint Louis University
  70. ↑ Remington Research (R)

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