2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota

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Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic–NPL Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Dakota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

A sparsely-populated Great Plains state with an almost-exclusively White populace, North Dakota has not been won by a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide and has only been decided by single digits in three presidential elections since then: 1976, 1996, and 2008. Furthermore, agribusiness and the recent oil boom have played a key role in cementing the GOP's overwhelming popularity in the state. North Dakota is expected to be safely won by the Republican candidate in 2024. ^[2]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 North Dakota Democratic presidential primary

The North Dakota Democratic primary was held mostly through mail in ballots. Limited in person voting was held, and all ballots were due March 30, 2024.

North Dakota Democratic primary, February 20–March 30, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	840	92.4%	13		13
Marianne Williamson	31	3.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	16	1.8%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)	13	1.4%
Eban Cambridge	4	0.4%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)	3	0.3%
Jason Palmer	2	0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato	0	0%
Total:	909	100.0%	13	4	17
Source: [3]

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2024 North Dakota Republican presidential caucuses

The North Dakota Republican caucuses were held on March 4, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday, where 15 states and 865 total delegates were up for election.

North Dakota Republican caucus, March 4, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	1,632	84.4%	29		29
Nikki Haley	273	14.1%
David Stuckenberg	19	1.0%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	9	0.5%
Total:	1,933	100.00%	29		29
Source: [4]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [5]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [6]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [7]	Solid R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [8]	Solid R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [9]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [10]	Solid R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	419 (RV)	± 4.8%	54%	17%	28%

See also

• United States presidential elections in North Dakota
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
3. "North Dakota Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
4. Yoon, Robert (February 29, 2024). "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in North Dakota's GOP caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
5. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
6. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.