2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Flag of North Dakota.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout62.61% [1] (Decrease2.svg 0.04 pp)
  TrumpPortrait (3x4a).jpg Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic–NPL
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote30
Popular vote246,505112,327
Percentage66.96%30.51%
North Dakota Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
ND President 2024.svg
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic-NPL

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [2]

Contents

On election night, Trump carried the state with an overwhelming victory margin of 36.45%, the highest out of any Republican presidential victory in the state since 1980. It was Trump's fourth strongest state in margin of victory, behind Idaho, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The North Dakota Democratic primary was held mostly through mail in ballots. Limited in person voting was held, and all ballots were due March 30, 2024.

North Dakota Democratic primary, February 20 – March 30, 2024 [3]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)84092.4%1313
Marianne Williamson 313.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)161.8%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)131.4%
Eban Cambridge40.4%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)30.3%
Jason Palmer 20.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato00%
Total:909100.0%13417

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican caucuses were held on March 4, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday, where 15 states and 865 total delegates were up for election.

North Dakota Republican caucus, March 4, 2024 [4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 1,63284.43%29029
Nikki Haley 27314.12%000
David Stuckenberg190.98%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)90.47%000
Total:1,933100.00%29029

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [5] Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [6] Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [7] Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [8] Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [9] Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN [10] Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [11] Safe RJune 12, 2024
538 [12] Solid RJune 11, 2024
RCP [13] Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News [14] Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic–NPL		Other /
Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D) [15] [A] September 23–26, 2024500 (LV)–50%40%10%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic–NPL		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [16] [B] September 28–30, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%59%32%1%8%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic–NPL		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [17] [C] June 15–19, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%62%28%10%
John Zogby Strategies [18] [D] April 13–21, 2024300 (LV)–55%37%8%
Emerson College [19] October 1–4, 2023419 (RV)± 4.8%54%17%28%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [18] [D] April 13–21, 2024300 (LV)–51%36%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Joe
Biden
Democratic–NPL		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [18] [D] April 13–21, 2024300 (LV)–58%30%12%

Results

2024 Presidential North Dakota County Swings.svg
2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican
246,50566.96%Increase2.svg 1.85%
Democratic–NPL
112,32730.51%Decrease2.svg 1.27%
Libertarian
6,2271.69%Decrease2.svg 0.91%
Write-in 3,0960.84%Increase2.svg 0.31%
Total votes368,155 100.00% N/A

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Kamala Harris
Democratic-NPL		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 96280.10%21517.90%242.00%74762.20%1,201
Barnes 3,53166.14%1,66131.11%1472.75%1,87035.03%5,339
Benson 1,16358.09%79539.71%442.20%36818.38%2,002
Billings 54383.93%9314.37%111.70%45069.56%647
Bottineau 2,62876.24%73521.32%842.44%1,89354.92%3,447
Bowman 1,38485.54%20712.79%271.67%1,17772.75%1,618
Burke 90986.08%13012.31%171.61%77973.77%1,056
Burleigh 36,59570.02%14,21527.20%1,4532.78%22,38042.82%52,263
Cass 47,87352.69%40,30444.36%2,6742.94%7,5698.33%90,851
Cavalier 1,46173.53%49124.71%351.76%97048.82%1,987
Dickey 1,82974.56%55722.71%672.73%1,27251.85%2,453
Divide 91476.10%25321.07%342.83%66155.03%1,201
Dunn 1,87783.72%33214.81%331.47%1,54568.91%2,242
Eddy 86271.54%31626.22%272.24%54645.32%1,205
Emmons 1,69787.93%20510.62%281.45%1,49277.31%1,930
Foster 1,32677.86%33519.67%422.47%99158.19%1,703
Golden Valley 84785.47%12212.31%222.22%72573.16%991
Grand Forks 18,12357.70%12,46939.70%8192.61%5,65418.00%30,970
Grant 1,07682.39%20515.70%251.91%87166.69%1,306
Griggs 96374.71%30123.35%251.94%66251.36%1,289
Hettinger 1,08983.38%19214.70%251.92%89768.68%1,306
Kidder 1,13781.33%23817.02%231.64%89964.31%1,398
LaMoure 1,61476.02%45321.34%562.64%1,16154.68%2,123
Logan 89886.93%11711.33%181.74%78175.60%1,033
McHenry 2,22380.78%47917.41%501.82%1,74463.37%2,752
McIntosh 1,13281.44%22916.47%292.09%90364.97%1,390
McKenzie 4,62783.81%80914.65%851.54%3,81869.16%5,521
McLean 4,23178.05%1,09320.16%971.79%3,13857.89%5,421
Mercer 3,79883.38%67214.75%851.87%3,12668.63%4,555
Morton 12,83975.36%3,74822.00%4492.63%9,09153.36%17,036
Mountrail 2,87770.64%1,12527.62%711.74%1,75243.02%4,073
Nelson 1,14164.79%58032.94%402.27%56131.85%1,761
Oliver 90983.62%15614.35%222.03%75369.27%1,087
Pembina 2,35075.51%70422.62%581.86%1,64652.89%3,112
Pierce 1,49375.79%43922.28%381.93%1,05453.51%1,970
Ramsey 3,60968.89%1,51328.88%1172.24%2,09640.01%5,239
Ransom 1,66162.70%92034.73%682.57%74027.97%2,649
Renville 99382.20%17914.82%362.98%81467.38%1,208
Richland 5,57667.50%2,47329.94%2122.57%3,10337.56%8,261
Rolette 1,42735.02%2,56762.99%811.99%-1,140-27.97%4,075
Sargent 1,32564.86%66332.45%552.69%66232.41%2,043
Sheridan 64485.07%10113.34%121.59%54371.73%757
Sioux 28529.91%65468.63%141.46%-369-38.72%953
Slope 35190.23%338.48%51.28%31881.75%389
Stark 12,32381.61%2,47316.38%3042.01%9,85065.23%15,100
Steele 62261.28%36736.16%262.57%25525.12%1,015
Stutsman 7,18570.90%2,69226.56%2572.53%4,49344.34%10,134
Towner 79671.45%28925.94%292.60%50745.51%1,114
Traill 2,65064.40%1,35933.03%1062.58%1,29131.37%4,115
Walsh 3,18670.86%1,17326.09%1373.05%2,01344.77%4,496
Ward 20,63572.27%7,21525.27%7022.46%13,42047.00%28,552
Wells 1,81580.56%40517.98%331.47%1,41062.58%2,253
Williams 12,50182.67%2,27615.05%3452.28%10,22567.62%15,122
Totals246,50566.96%112,32730.51%9,3232.53%134,17836.45%368,155

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is an at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
At-large 66.96%30.61% Julie Fedorchak

Analysis

A sparsely-populated Great Plains state with a predominantly White populace and electorate, North Dakota has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson won it in his nationwide 1964 landslide. Furthermore, it has only been decided by single digits in three presidential elections since 1964: 1976, 1996, and 2008. Agribusiness and the recent oil boom have played a key role in cementing the GOP's overwhelming dominance in the state.

North Dakota has one of the highest percentage of Native Americans in the country, a constituency that has been relatively solidly Democratic in the past. In 2024, however, Native Americans shifted heavily to the right, with North Dakota's Native population following that trend. Sioux County, North Dakota's most Native American county, shifted harder to the right than any county in the state. [21]

North Dakota is considered a deeply red state, and Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump won it by over 30 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. In terms of popular vote percentage, North Dakota was Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver's strongest state, with 1.7 percent. [22]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Katrina Christiansen, the Democratic nominee for North Dakota's Class 1 Senate seat
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by North Dakota News Cooperative
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Brighter Future Alliance
  4. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. ↑ "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved February 6, 2020.
  2. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  3. ↑ "North Dakota Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
  4. ↑ Yoon, Robert (February 29, 2024). "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in North Dakota's GOP caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
  5. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  12. ↑ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  13. ↑ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  14. ↑ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  15. ↑ "Katrina Christiansen for Senate - November 2024 General Election" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight . October 1, 2024.
  16. ↑ Standaert, Michael (October 2, 2024). "Poll: Republicans look set for sweep of top races". North Dakota News Cooperative.
  17. ↑ Bolger, Glen; Nassar, George (June 26, 2024). "KEY FINDINGS – NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE SURVEY" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies.
  18. 1 2 3 "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  19. ↑ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "North Dakota 2024 Poll: Senator Cramer with Comfortable Lead Over Democratic Challenger". Emerson Polling.
  20. ↑ "Official (without recounts) 2024 General Election Results". Vote.nd.gov. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
  21. ↑ Mahtesian, Charlie (November 15, 2024). "The unexpected group that surged toward Trump". POLITICO. Retrieved January 21, 2025.
  22. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
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