2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota

Last updated

2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota's at-large district
Flag of North Dakota.svg
←  2020 November 8, 2022 2024  →
Turnout42.11% Decrease2.svg [1]
  Kelly Armstrong (cropped 2).jpg Cara Mund 2018.jpg
Nominee Kelly Armstrong Cara Mund
Party Republican Independent
Alliance Democratic–NPL
Popular vote148,39989,644
Percentage62.2%37.6%
ND-AL 2022 by county.svg
2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota by State Senate District.svg
Armstrong:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Mund:     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Kelly Armstrong
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Kelly Armstrong
Republican

The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative from North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Kelly Armstrong was re-elected with 69.0% of the vote in 2020. His only opponent in the general election was Independent Cara Mund after Democratic nominee Mark Haugen withdrew.

Contents

Although Armstrong won by a large margin, his 62.2% showing was his worst since his first election in 2018, and Mund's 37.6% was the best showing for a non-Republican in a North Dakota U.S. House race since 2014. [2] Mund's vote share was at least 10% higher than every 2022 statewide Democratic–NPL candidate in North Dakota and nearly 6% higher than incumbent president Democrat Joe Biden's vote share in the 2020 presidential election. [3] Mund also had the second-best performance of any Independent in the 2022 congressional elections, only surpassed by Evan McMullin in the Utah Senate race.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Kelly Armstrong
Federal officials

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kelly Armstrong (incumbent) 70,424 99.0
Write-in 7091.0
Total votes71,133 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Withdrew after winning primary

Endorsements

Mark Haugen
Organizations

Results

Democratic–NPL primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic–NPL Mark Haugen 21,897 99.7
Write-in 570.3
Total votes21,954 100.0

Aftermath

Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, Haugen faced criticism among Democrats for his anti-abortion beliefs. Many within the Democratic–NPL Party preferred independent candidate Cara Mund, who is pro-choice, and urged Haugen to drop out of the race. Haugen ended his campaign in September and the Democratic–NPL Party endorsed Mund shortly after. [9] [10]

Independents

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [13] Solid ROctober 5, 2021
Inside Elections [14] Solid ROctober 11, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15] Safe ROctober 5, 2021
Politico [16] Solid RApril 5, 2022
RCP [17] Safe RJune 9, 2022
Fox News [18] Solid RJuly 11, 2022
DDHQ [19] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [20] Solid RJune 30, 2022

Endorsements

Kelly Armstrong (R)
Federal officials
Cara Mund (I)
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kelly
Armstrong (R)		Cara
Mund (I)		OtherUndecided
DFM Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] September 19–21, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%44%40%2%14%
Axis Research (R) [upper-alpha 2] September 16–19, 2022402 (LV)± 5.0%52%30%–18%
1982 Polling (R) [upper-alpha 2] September 10–12, 2022518 (LV)± 4.3%48%31%–13%
Odney (R) [upper-alpha 2] August 18–28, 2022403 (LV)± 4.9%49%20%15% [lower-alpha 2] 16%

Results

2022 North Dakota's at-large congressional district election [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kelly Armstrong (incumbent) 148,399 62.20% –6.76
Independent Cara Mund 89,64437.57%N/A
Write-in 5430.23%+0.12
Total votes238,586 100.00%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Haugen (D) with 13%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party
  2. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Armstrong's campaign

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References

  1. ↑ "Voter Turnout Details". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  2. ↑ "2010 - 2018 Election Results".
  3. ↑ "Shaw: Cara Mund's strong showing and other election thoughts".
  4. ↑ Stanko, Frank (December 20, 2021). "Armstrong, Cramer, Hoeven discuss '21 challenges, hopes for '22". Wahpeton Daily News. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  5. 1 2 "Endorsement of Congressman Kelly Armstrong". June 12, 2022. Retrieved July 24, 2022.
  6. ↑ "Christiansen, Haugen accept Dem-NPL nominations for North Dakota U.S. Senate, House races". KFYR-TV . March 27, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  7. ↑ Nelson, TJ (September 4, 2022). "Democrat Mark Haugen Suspends Campaign For U.S. House In N.D." KVRR . Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  8. ↑ "North Dakota Democratic-NPL endorses statewide candidates amid recruiting struggles". March 26, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  9. ↑ "More details released for Haugen decision to suspend campaign". KFYR-TV . September 5, 2022. Retrieved December 8, 2022.
  10. ↑ "Abortion backers force out pro-life Democratic congressional candidate in N. Dakota". CNA . September 7, 2022. Retrieved December 8, 2022.
  11. ↑ "Cara Mund announces bid for Congress". KX NEWS. August 6, 2022. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
  12. 1 2 "Ex-Miss America Mund qualifies as ND congressional candidate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . September 9, 2022. Archived from the original on September 9, 2022. Retrieved September 9, 2022.
  13. ↑ "2022 House Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  14. ↑ "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 4, 2021.
  15. ↑ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 5, 2021. Retrieved October 5, 2021.
  16. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
  17. ↑ "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
  18. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. July 11, 2022. Retrieved July 11, 2022.
  19. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  20. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  21. ↑ "Official 2022 General Election Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
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