2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

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2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
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Nominee James Lankford Madison Horn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote739,960369,370
Percentage64.30%32.10%
2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
OK-2022-sen-districts.svg
OK Senate 2022.svg
Lankford:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Horn:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

James Lankford
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

James Lankford
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oklahoma. [1] Incumbent senator James Lankford won re-election to a second full term, defeating cybersecurity professional Madison Horn (no relation to former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn, who ran for the concurrent special election to the Class II seat) in a landslide, winning all 77 counties with more than 50% of the vote in each.

Contents

Lankford was first elected in 2014 special election with 68% of the vote, succeeding retiring fellow Republican Tom Coburn. [2] He won re-election to a first full term in 2016 with 68% of the vote. [3]

The primary elections for the Republican, Democratic, and Libertarian parties' nominations took place on June 28, 2022, with runoffs taking place on August 23, 2022. [1] All candidates had to file between the days of April 13–15, 2022. [1]

Despite his comfortable victory, with slightly over 64% of the vote received this was Lankford's worst performance in his career, as in each of his previous two elections he won nearly 68%. This also marked the best performance by a Democratic candidate since 2004 in the Class III seat.

Republican primary

On March 16, 2021, Jackson Lahmeyer announced his campaign for the Republican nomination for United States Senate seat held by James Lankford. While Lankford had not formally announced, he was expected to run for reelection. [4] On April 6, Lankford officially announced he would seek reelection in an interview with the Tulsa World . [5] The Oklahoman reported that Joan Farr announced her candidacy for the Oklahoma and Kansas U.S. Senate seats sometime in August. [6] On September 28, state senator Nathan Dahm announced his campaign for Lankford's seat. [6] In November the Tulsa World reported that Jessica Jean Garrison, the daughter of former state senator Earl Garrison, would also campaign in the contested Republican primary. [7] On February 28, 2022, Nathan Dahm announced he had switched his campaign to the special election in the Class 2 seat. [8] Jessica Jean Garrison also switched her campaign to the special election when filing. Lankford won the June primary with 67% of the vote. [9]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew before filing

Endorsements

James Lankford and Jackson Lahmeyer courted the endorsement of Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States, but Trump did not endorse a candidate prior to the primary. [10] [11]

On June 29, 2021, Lankford's campaign published its supposed endorsement by state representative Kevin McDugle. McDugle later went on social media claiming to have never made the endorsement; Lankford's campaign subsequently removed his name from their endorsement list. [12]

Jackson Lahmeyer
Federal Executive Branch officials
State Senators
State representatives
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations
James Lankford
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions

Debates

The Oil & Gas Workers Association of Oklahoma offered to host a debate for the Republican primary. Invitations were extended to candidates Jackson Lahmeyer and James Lankford, but Lankford refused the invitation. [52]

2022 Republican primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Joan
Farr		Jackson
Lahmeyer		James
Lankford
1CancelledOil & Gas Workers Association of Oklahoma--NII

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joan
Farr		Jackson
Lahmeyer		James
Lankford		OtherUndecided
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%4%12%68%–15%
SoonerPoll April 25 – May 11, 2022306 (LV)± 5.6%2%8%74%–16%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022455 (LV)± 4.6%0%10%63%3% [lower-alpha 2] 24%
Amber Integrated (R) December 15–19, 2021253 (RV)± 6.2%–8%56%12% [lower-alpha 3] 24%
Amber Integrated (R) September 29 – October 3, 2021253 (RV)± 6.2%–21%62%4% [lower-alpha 4] 12%

Results

Primary results by county: Lankford 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 2022 Oklahoma U.S. Senate Republican primary.svg
Primary results by county:
  Lankford
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican James Lankford (incumbent) 243,132 67.83%
Republican Jackson Lahmeyer94,57226.38%
Republican Joan Farr20,7615.79%
Total votes358,465 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Madison Horn, cybersecurity professional [53] [54]

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in initial primary

  • Arya Azma, security trader [56]
  • Dennis Baker [56]
  • Jo Glenn, attorney [57]
  • Brandon Wade, machinery assembler [56]

Failed to file

Declined

First round

Results

Initial primary results by county: Map legend Horn--40-50% Horn--<40% Bollinger--<40% Baker--<40% Bollinger/Baker tie--<40% Wade--<40% 2022 Oklahoma U.S. Senate Democratic primary.svg
Initial primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Horn—40–50%
  •   Horn—<40%
  •   Bollinger—<40%
  •   Baker—<40%
  •   Bollinger/Baker tie—<40%
  •   Wade—<40%
Democratic primary results [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Madison Horn 60,691 37.19%
Democratic Jason Bollinger 27,374 16.77%
Democratic Dennis Baker22,46713.77%
Democratic Jo Glenn21,19812.99%
Democratic Brandon Wade19,98612.25%
Democratic Arya Azma11,4787.03%
Total votes163,194 100.0%

Runoff

Results

Democratic primary results [61]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Madison Horn 60,929 65.48%
Democratic Jason Bollinger32,12134.52%
Total votes93,050 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [62] Solid RNovember 19, 2021
Inside Elections [63] Solid RJanuary 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [64] Safe RNovember 3, 2021
Politico [65] Solid RApril 1, 2022
RCP [66] Safe RJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News [67] Solid RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [68] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [69] Solid RJune 30, 2022
The Economist [70] Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

James Lankford (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions
Madison Horn (D)
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		James
Lankford (R)		Madison
Horn (D)		Other
[lower-alpha 5] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight September 15 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202256.9%34.9%8.2%Lankford +22.0
270towin October 11 - November 7, 2022November 7, 202254.3%36.8%8.9%Lankford +17.5
Average55.6%35.8%8.6%Lankford +19.8
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		James
Lankford (R)		Madison
Horn (D)		OtherUndecided
Ascend Action (R) November 5–6, 2022682 (LV)± 3.8%56%36%3% [lower-alpha 6] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) October 26–28, 2022501 (LV)± 4.4%52%38%7% [lower-alpha 7] 3%
Emerson College October 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%57%33%3% [lower-alpha 8] 8%
62%34%4% [lower-alpha 9] –
Ascend Action (R) October 24–28, 2022749 (LV)± 3.6%51%35%5% [lower-alpha 10] 9%
Amber Integrated (R) October 13–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%36%7% [lower-alpha 11] 4%
Ascend Action (R) October 10–12, 2022638 (LV)± 3.9%51%37%3% [lower-alpha 12] 9%
SoonerPoll October 3–6, 2022301 (LV)–52%40%2% [lower-alpha 13] 6%
Amber Integrated (R) September 19–21, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%34%–14%
–(L) [lower-alpha 14] September 15–18, 20222,989 (LV)± 3.2%49%27%11% [lower-alpha 15] 13%
SoonerPoll September 2–7, 2022402 (LV)± 4.9%52%35%4% [lower-alpha 16] 13%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022522 (RV)± 6.3%59%29%–12%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma [80] [81]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican James Lankford (incumbent) 739,960 64.30% −3.44%
Democratic Madison Horn369,37032.10%+7.52%
Independent Michael Delaney20,9071.82%N/A
Libertarian Kenneth Blevins20,4951.78%−1.22%
Total votes1,150,732 100.0%
Turnout 1,150,73250.12%
Registered electors 2,295,906
Republican hold

By congressional district

Lankford won all 5 congressional districts. [82]

DistrictLankfordHornRepresentative
1st 59.0%37.6% Kevin Hern
2nd 73.3%23.3% Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress)
Josh Brecheen (118th Congress)
3rd 70.1%26.2% Frank Lucas
4th 63.1%33.0% Tom Cole
5th 57.6%38.9% Stephanie Bice

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Garrison with 3%
  3. ↑ Dahm with 9%, "Other" with 3%
  4. ↑ Dahm with 3%, "Other" with 1%
  5. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ↑ Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  7. ↑ Delaney (I) with 4%; Blevins (L) with 3%
  8. ↑ Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  9. ↑ Delaney (I) with 3%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  10. ↑ Delaney (I) with 3%; Blevins (L) with 2%
  11. ↑ Delaney (I) with 4%; Blevins (L) with 3%
  12. ↑ Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  13. ↑ Delaney with 2%; Blevins with 0%
  14. ↑ This poll was conducted in-house by and for Natalie Bruno's campaign for Governor
  15. ↑ Blevins with 9%; Delaney with 2%
  16. ↑ Delaney with 4%

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References

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  16. ↑ Gorman, Reese (September 12, 2021). "Republican primary a "real time test" of party's state". The Norman Transcript. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
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  50. 1 2 Martin, Stacy; McGuigan, Patrick (September 8, 2021). "With Susan B. Anthony List endorsement in hand, James Lankford leavens state endorsements with Mike Pompeo's strong affirmation". The City Sentinel. Archived from the original on September 9, 2021. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  51. 1 2 Krehbiel, Randy (February 20, 2022). "Political notebook: Conservative groups backing Treat bill turn on the heat". Tulsa World. Retrieved February 20, 2022.
  52. ↑ Casteel, Chris (March 19, 2022). "Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford says he won't debate Jackson Lahmeyer, calls appeals a 'sideshow'". The Oklahoman. Retrieved March 19, 2022.
  53. ↑ "Meet Madison Horn, the self-described "Conservative Democrat" running for US Senate in Oklahoma". KRMG. November 7, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  54. 1 2 Krehbiel, Randy (June 28, 2022). "Sen. James Lankford wins GOP primary in race for second term". Tulsa World. Retrieved June 29, 2022.
  55. ↑ Krehbiel, Randy (October 1, 2021). "Democrat Jason Bollinger enters U.S. Senate race". Tulsa World. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  56. 1 2 3 "CANDIDATES FOR ELECTIVE OFFICE 2022" (PDF). oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 23, 2022. Retrieved April 16, 2022.
  57. ↑ Krehbiel, Randy (January 30, 2022). "Political notebook: Veterans and ivermectin on lawmakers' radar". Tulsa World. Retrieved January 30, 2022.
  58. ↑ "Democratic Oklahoma City attorney jumps into US Senate race". Tulsa World. AP. September 30, 2021. Archived from the original on October 1, 2021. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  59. ↑ World, Randy Krehbiel and Kevin Canfield Tulsa (February 28, 2022). "Mayor Bynum won't run for Senate; Nathan Dahm shifts campaign to Inhofe's seat". Tulsa World. Retrieved March 1, 2022.
  60. ↑ Casteel, Chris (March 15, 2022). "Kendra Horn files for Jim Inhofe's Senate seat". The Oklahoman . Retrieved March 15, 2022.
  61. ↑ "OK Election Results - August 23, 2022". Oklahoma State Election Board.
  62. ↑ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  63. ↑ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  64. ↑ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  65. ↑ "Oklahoma Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.[ permanent dead link ]
  66. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  67. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  68. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  69. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  70. ↑ "The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast". The Economist. September 18, 2022. Retrieved September 18, 2022.
  71. ↑ "Endorsement of Senator James Lankford". Truth Social.
  72. ↑ "Endorsement: Sen. James Lankford should get another term, but needs to abandon divisiveness". October 28, 2022.
  73. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates - National Women's Political Caucus". www.nwpc.org. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  74. ↑ "Media Center - No Dem Left Behind". www.nodemleftbehind.com. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  75. ↑ "2022 Mid Term Election Candidate Endorsements". www.okdemvets.org. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  76. ↑ "Political Endorsements - Sally's List". sallyslist.org. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  77. ↑ "2022 Candidates for Common Good". Vote Common Good. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  78. ↑ "Oklahoma Endorsed Candidates 2022 | CWA District 6".
  79. ↑ "Endorsement: Madison Horn for US Senate". The Black Wall Street Times . November 2, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  80. ↑ "November 8 2022 Oklahoma Official results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board . Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  81. ↑ "Current Registration Statistics by County" (PDF). oklahoma.gov. November 1, 2022. Retrieved December 9, 2022.
  82. ↑ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
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