2022 United States Senate election in Alabama

Last updated

2022 United States Senate election in Alabama
Flag of Alabama.svg
  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  
Turnout38.5% Decrease2.svg
  Katie Britt (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Katie Britt Will Boyd
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote942,154436,746
Percentage66.62%30.88%

2022 United States Senate election in Alabama results map by county.svg
2022 U.S. Senate Election in Alabama by US House Districts.svg
2022 AL Senate.svg
Britt:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Boyd:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. senator before election

Richard Shelby
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Katie Britt
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama. Incumbent senator Richard Shelby was first elected in 1986 and re-elected in 1992 as a Democrat before becoming a Republican in 1994. [1] In his most recent election in 2016, he was re-elected with nearly 64% of the vote over Democrat Ron Crumpton. [2] In February 2021, Shelby announced that he would not seek re-election to a seventh term, [3] which resulted in the first open Senate seat since 1996 and the first in this seat since 1968. [lower-alpha 1]

Contents

Primary elections in Alabama were held on May 24, with Will Boyd securing the Democratic nomination. However, as none of the Republican candidates received at least 50% of the vote, a runoff election occurred on June 21 between the top two candidates of the first round: attorney Katie Britt and U.S. representative Mo Brooks. Britt won the runoff against Brooks and subsequently became the Republican nominee. [4]

Britt's victory in the Republican Party primary was seen as tantamount to election in Alabama, which is a heavily Republican state. [5] [6] [7] Britt won the general election and became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate in the state's history. [lower-alpha 2] [lower-alpha 3] She is also the first non-incumbent Republican Senator from Alabama to have been elected to this seat since 1980.

Republican primary

Early polling showed U.S. Representative Mo Brooks as the frontrunner in the race, and he received the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. [8] However, in November, the race started becoming increasingly closer with former chief of staff to incumbent senator Richard Shelby, Katie Britt, running neck and neck with Brooks. In March 2022, businessman and former pilot Michael Durant took the lead in the race, with Brooks only just beginning to spend money on television advertisements. On March 23, 2022, with Brooks polling in third place, Trump revoked his endorsement and promised to endorse a new candidate. [9] In his official statement, Trump slammed Brooks for wanting to move past the 2020 United States presidential election, and claimed he went "woke" on it. There was speculation that Trump withdrew his endorsement because he did not want to be associated with a losing campaign. Brooks claimed that Trump had told him to reinstate him as President and that Trump had been manipulated by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Brooks attacked Britt as allegedly being weak on illegal immigration and supporting higher taxes, while Brooks' critics frequently point to his long career in politics, having been in office for 40 years. [10] [11] In May, a planned debate between the three candidates was canceled after Durant declined to attend. [12] A runoff election took place on June 21 as none of the candidates managed 50% of the vote needed to win the nomination outright, with Britt becoming the Republican nominee.

Candidates

U.S. Representative Mo Brooks lost the runoff Mo Brooks.jpg
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks lost the runoff

Nominee

  • Katie Britt, former president and CEO of the Business Council of Alabama and former chief of staff to outgoing senator Richard Shelby
Businessman Michael Durant finished third in the initial primary Michael Durant delivers a professional development seminar at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey (alt crop).jpg
Businessman Michael Durant finished third in the initial primary

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in initial primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Katie Britt
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations
PACs
  • Alabama Conservatives Fund [61]
  • Alabama RetailPAC [62]
  • Business-Industry PAC [63]
  • VIEW PAC [64]
  • Winning For Women PAC [65]
Mo Brooks (eliminated)
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Party officials
Judges
Individuals
Organizations
PACs
Mike Durant (eliminated)
Executive branch officials
Individuals
PACs
  • Combat Veterans for Congress PAC [103]
  • More Perfect Union [104]
  • SEAL PAC [99]
Jessica Taylor (withdrawn)
Individuals
  • Ted Nugent, musician and activist [105] (switched endorsement to Durant after Taylor withdrew) [101]

Debates and forums

2022 Alabama Republican U.S. Senate primary debates and forums
No.DateHostLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn O Not yet entered race
Blanchard Britt Brooks Dunn Durant Taylor
1 [106] Sep 15, 2021Coffee County Republican Women WTVY PPPAOA
2 [107] Sep 28, 2021Alabama Public Employees' Advocacy League WHNT PPAPP
3 [108] Feb 19, 2022Alabama Republican PartyN/AWPPWPW
4 [109] Feb 28, 2022Butler County Republican PartyN/APPA
5 [110] Mar 22, 2022Tallapoosa County Republican PartyN/APPA
6 [111] Mar 24, 2022Houston County Republican PartyN/APPA
7 [112] Apr 25, 2022Calhoun County Chamber of CommerceN/AAPA

First round

Polling

Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Katie
Britt
Mo
Brooks
Mike
Durant
Other
[lower-alpha 4]
Margin
Real Clear Politics May 15–21, 2022May 24, 202234.7%28.7%25.3%11.3%Britt +6.0
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 5]
Margin
of error
Lynda
Blanchard
Katie
Britt
Mo
Brooks
Mike
Durant
Jessica
Taylor
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 18–21, 20221,060 (LV)± 2.9%36%28%23%4% [lower-alpha 6] 9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 16–19, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%37%25%24%13%
Cygnal (R) May 15–16, 2022634 (LV)± 3.9%31%29%24%6%10%
Emerson College May 15–16, 2022706 (LV)± 3.6%32%25%26%3% [lower-alpha 7] 14%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 9–12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%37%21%31%12%
Cygnal (R) May 6–7, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%32%23%21%9%16%
Moore Information Group (R) May 2–5, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%27%20%20%9% [lower-alpha 8] 24%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 2–5, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%39%22%27%12%
Emerson College March 25–27, 2022687 (LV)± 3.7%23%12%33%7% [lower-alpha 9] 26%
Cygnal (R) March 16–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%28%16%35%7% [lower-alpha 10] 14%
Wisemen Consulting (R) March 15–17, 2022– (LV)± 3.4%27%23%29%4% [lower-alpha 11] 17%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] March 10–13, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%32%18%34%17%
Cherry Communications (R) [upper-alpha 2] February 2–6, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%29%34%24%13%
Deep Root Analytics (R) Archived February 7, 2022, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 3] January 29–31, 20222,088 (LV)± 2.1%29%28%23%20%
WPA Intelligence (R) Archived February 7, 2022, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 4] January 25–27, 2022513 (LV)± 4.4%25%35%30%10%
January 4, 2022Taylor withdraws from the race
McLaughlin & Associates (R) December 6–9, 2021500 (LV)± 4.5%26%31%17%4%22%
December 2, 2021Blanchard withdraws from the race
TargetPoint Consulting (R) [upper-alpha 3] November 3–8, 2021300 (LV)± 5.7%31%30%12%7%20%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 5] November 3–4, 2021650 (LV)± 3.8%1%24%22%9%1%4%39%
The Strategy Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] November 1–4, 2021784 (LV)± 3.8%3%23%28%7%1%31%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 21–22, 2021– (LV)14%26%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 4] October 12–14, 2021506 (LV)± 4.4%5%12%55%5%23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) August 24 – September 2, 2021600 (LV)± 4.6%3%11%41%7%39%
Cygnal (R) August 17–18, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%18%41%3%5%32%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 4] April 26–27, 2021509 (LV)± 4.4%13%9%59%19%

Results

Initial primary results by county
Britt
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
Brooks
30-40% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Alabama results map by county.svg
Initial primary results by county
  Britt
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Brooks
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results [113]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Katie Britt 289,425 44.75%
Republican Mo Brooks 188,539 29.15%
Republican Michael Durant 150,81723.32%
Republican Jake Schafer7,3711.14%
Republican Karla DuPriest5,7390.89%
Republican Lillie Boddie4,8490.75%
Total votes646,740 100.0%

Runoff

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 5]
Margin
of error
Katie
Britt
Mo
Brooks
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 13–16, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%58%33%9%
Auburn University at Montgomery June 8–15, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%50%30%20%
Emerson College June 12–13, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%34%17%
JMC Analytics (R) June 6–9, 2022630 (LV)± 3.9%51%39%10%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 6–9, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%55%36%9%
Cygnal (R) March 16–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%51%28%21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) December 6–9, 2021500 (LV)± 4.5%39%37%25%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 5] November 3–4, 2021650 (LV)± 3.8%35%29%36%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 21–22, 2021– (LV)26%34%40%
Hypothetical polling
Katie Britt vs. Mike Durant
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 5]
Margin
of error
Katie
Britt
Mike
Durant
Undecided
Cygnal (R) March 16–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%35%47%19%
Mo Brooks vs. Mike Durant
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 5]
Margin
of error
Mo
Brooks
Mike
Durant
Undecided
Cygnal (R) March 16–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%23%57%20%

Results

Runoff results by county
Britt
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Brooks
50-60% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary runoff election in Alabama results map by county.svg
Runoff results by county
  Britt
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
  Brooks
  •   50–60%
Republican primary runoff results [113]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Katie Britt 253,251 63.02%
Republican Mo Brooks 148,63636.98%
Total votes401,887 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Removed from ballot

  • Victor Keith Williams, activist, former law instructor and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia in 2020 [118] [119]

Declined

Debates and forums

2022 Alabama Democratic U.S. Senate primary debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn
BoydDeanJackson
1 [122] Apr 07, 2022DeKalb County Democratic PartyN/AN/APPA
2 [112] Apr 25, 2022Calhoun County Chamber of CommerceN/AN/APAP

Endorsements

Will Boyd
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 5]
Margin
of error
Will
Boyd
Brandaun
Dean
Lanny
Jackson
Victor
Williams
Undecided
Emerson College May 15–16, 2022294 (LV)± 5.7%26%15%11%49%
Emerson College March 25–27, 2022359 (LV)± 5.1%11%5%7%11%67%

Results

Results by county
Boyd
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80% 2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Alabama results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Boyd
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   70-80%
Democratic primary results [113]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Will Boyd 107,588 63.72%
Democratic Brandaun Dean32,86319.46%
Democratic Lanny Jackson28,40216.82%
Total votes168,853 100.0%

Libertarian nomination

No primary was held for the Libertarian Party, and candidates were instead nominated by the party. [125]

Candidates

Nominee

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [129] Solid RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [130] Solid RApril 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [131] Safe RMarch 1, 2022
Politico [132] Solid RApril 1, 2022
RCP [133] Safe RJune 21, 2022
Fox News [134] Solid RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [135] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [136] Solid RJune 30, 2022
The Economist [137] Solid RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Katie Britt (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations
Will Boyd (D)
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 5]
Margin
of error
Katie
Britt (R)
Will
Boyd (D)
John
Sophocleus (L)
Undecided
Cygnal (R) October 27–29, 2022616 (LV)± 3.94%57%28%6%-

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Alabama [152]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Katie Britt 942,154 66.62% +2.66%
Democratic Will Boyd436,74630.88%-4.99%
Libertarian John Sophocleus 32,8792.32%N/A
Write-in 2,4590.17%±0.0%
Total votes1,414,238 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Britt won 6 of 7 congressional districts. [153]

DistrictBrittBoydRepresentative
1st 69%29% Jerry Carl
2nd 70%28% Barry Moore
3rd 71%26% Mike Rogers
4th 84%14% Robert Aderholt
5th 67%30% Mo Brooks (117th Congress)
Dale Strong (118th Congress)
6th 67%29% Gary Palmer
7th 37%61% Terri Sewell

See also

Notes

  1. Maryon Pittman Allen ran for this Class III seat in the special election in 1978 to finish her late husband's term, but lost in the Democratic primary to Donald Stewart, who won the election. Stewart ran for re-election to a full term in 1980, but lost in the Democratic primary to Jim Folsom.
  2. Alabama had never elected a female Senator in the state's history. Two previous female Senators, Dixie Graves and Maryon Pittman Allen, were appointed to the Senate, but were never nominated in a Senate election.
  3. Luther Strange was appointed to the Senate in 2017, but lost in the Republican primary to Roy Moore in the special election in 2017.
  4. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. Boddie with 2%; DuPriest and Schafer with 1%
  7. Boddie with 2%; DuPriest with 1%; Schafer with 0%
  8. "None" with 4%; Schafer and DuPriest with 2%; Boddie with 1%
  9. DuPriest with 4%; Boddie and Schafer with 1%
  10. Boddie with 7%; DuPriest and Schafer with 0%
  11. DuPriest with 3%, Schafer with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by ForestPAC, a wing of the Alabama Forestry Association, which supports Britt
  2. Poll sponsored by FarmPAC, a wing of the Alabama Farmers Federation, which supports Britt
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Britt's campaign
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action which endorsed Brooks prior to the sampling period
  5. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Alabama Conservatives Fund, which supports Britt
  6. Poll sponsored by the Alabama House Republican Caucus

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References

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  2. Sims, Cliff (December 2016). "Shelby overcomes torrent of negative ads, easily wins re-election to sixth term". Yellowhammer News. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  3. 1 2 Hulse, Carl (February 8, 2021). "Shelby, Veteran Senator from Alabama, Won't Seek Seventh Term". The New York Times . Retrieved February 8, 2021.
  4. Colvin, Jill; Chandler, Kim (June 21, 2022). "Britt wins tumultuous Alabama Senate race scrambled by Trump". Associated Press. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  5. Whites-Koditschek, Sarah (June 21, 2022). "Katie Britt wins runoff, stands to become first woman elected senator in Alabama". AL.com. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  6. Ulloa, Jazmine; Hounshell, Blake (June 21, 2022). "Katie Britt leveraged her Alabama connections and political savvy to trounce Mo Brooks". The New York Times. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  7. Bustillo, Ximena (June 21, 2022). "Trump-backed Britt defeats Brooks in Alabama Republican Senate runoff". National Public Radio. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  8. "Brooks, Trump adviser to make campaign announcement". March 22, 2021.
  9. Gonyea, Don (March 23, 2022). "Trump yanks endorsement of Alabama Senate candidate Brooks, who said to get past 2020". NPR.
  10. "Rep. Mo Brooks responds to Trump's latest comments". March 23, 2022.
  11. "Mo Brooks lashes out at Katie Britt after losing Trump's U.S. Senate endorsement". March 24, 2022.
  12. "Durant declines offer to debate Katie Britt, Mo Brooks". May 2, 2022.
  13. Moseley, Brandon (January 29, 2022). "Candidate qualifying is over except for Congress". 1819 News . Archived from the original on January 29, 2022. Retrieved January 29, 2022.
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  15. Seale, Michael (January 17, 2022). "Political Newcomer Making Waves: 5 Questions With Katie Britt". Yahoo News. Retrieved January 18, 2022.
  16. "'Black Hawk Down' POW Mike Durant enters Alabama's 2022 U.S. Senate race". Yellowhammer News. October 19, 2021. Retrieved October 19, 2021.
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