2022 United States Senate election in Missouri

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2022 United States Senate election in Missouri
Flag of Missouri.svg
←  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  →
  Sen. Eric Schmitt, official portrait, 118th Congress (cropped).jpg Trudy Busch Valentine (1).jpg
Nominee Eric Schmitt Trudy Busch Valentine
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,146,966872,694
Percentage55.43%42.18%
2022 United States Senate election in Missouri results map by county.svg
2022 US Senate Election in Missouri by Congressional District.svg
Schmitt:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Busch Valentine:     50–60%     60–70%     70-80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Roy Blunt
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Eric Schmitt
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent senator Roy Blunt, a Republican, did not seek a third term in office. Republican Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the open seat, defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine.

Contents

Republican primary

In March 2021, incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt announced that he would not seek reelection in 2022. [1]

Republican candidates for Blunt's Senate seat included former Gov. Eric Greitens, [2] U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler, [3] U.S. Rep. Billy Long, [4] and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt. [5]

Schmitt's candidacy was backed by Missouri mega-donor Rex Sinquefield. [6] In the speech announcing his candidacy, Schmitt tied himself to Donald Trump and spoke against "the radical left". [6] He pledged to vote against Mitch McConnell for the Senate Republican party leadership position. [7]

In February 2022, Hartzler's campaign released a 30-second ad criticizing Lia Thomas, a transgender swimmer on the University of Pennsylvania women's team. In the ad, Hartzler said, "Women's sports are for women, not men pretending to be women", adding that, as Missouri's senator, she would not "look away while woke liberals destroy women's sports." [8]

U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley endorsed Hartzler in February 2022. [9] On July 8, 2022, Donald Trump refused to endorse Hartzler, saying, "I don't think she has what it takes to take on the Radical Left Democrats." [10] [9]

Greitens was endorsed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, and Fox News personality Kimberly Guilfoyle, the latter joining his campaign as a national chair. [11]

Many Republican officials, strategists, and donors maneuvered to stymie Greitens's attempted comeback, believing that the scandal surrounding his resignation as governor, his extramarital affair, and the sexual assault accusation against him would make him a weak general election candidate and lead to the loss of the Senate seat to a Democrat. [12] [13] Notable Republican opponents of Greitens's candidacy included Karl Rove, [12] Johnny DeStefano, [13] and Senator Rick Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. [14] After Greitens's ex-wife filed an affidavit against him in March 2022 accusing him of physical abuse, Senator Josh Hawley (who had endorsed Vicky Hartzler the previous month [15] ) called upon Greitens to drop out. [16]

Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein funded a pro-Greitens super PAC ("Team PAC"), contributing $2.5 million to it. [12] Other Republican megadonors, including Rex Sinquefield and August Busch, aligned against Greitens. [13] A Republican-funded anti-Greitens super PAC ("Show Me Values PAC") was created in June 2022 [17] and ran $6.2 million in ads through late July 2022. [18]

Republican officials, including Rick Scott, waged a campaign to persuade Donald Trump not to endorse Greitens. [14] On the eve of the primary election, Trump issued a statement endorsing "ERIC" in the primary, leaving it unclear which "Eric" he was endorsing. [14] [19]

In the primary election, Schmitt prevailed with 45.7% of the vote; Hartzler received 22.1%, Greitens 18.9%, and Long 5%. [20]

U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler was endorsed by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and finished second. Vicky Hartzler official portrait 117th Congress (alt crop).jpg
U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler was endorsed by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and finished second.
Former governor Eric Greitens attempted to restart his political career, but finished third. Eric Greitens 2018 (cropped).jpg
Former governor Eric Greitens attempted to restart his political career, but finished third.
U.S. Representative Billy Long failed to gain traction and finished a distant fourth. Billy Long 115th official photo (cropped).jpg
U.S. Representative Billy Long failed to gain traction and finished a distant fourth.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Missed filing deadline

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

The day before the primary, former president Donald Trump released a statement endorsing "ERIC". There were three candidates with the first name Eric running in the Republican primary: Eric Greitens, Eric McElroy, and Eric Schmitt. Trump's statement did not offer any clarification on whether this was an endorsement for one or multiple candidates, and when reached for comment by NBC News, Trump's office declined to clarify the endorsement. [52] [53]

Eric Greitens

Federal officials

Individuals

Organizations

Vicky Hartzler

Federal officials

Individuals

Organizations

Eric Schmitt

Federal officials

State officials

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Debates

DateHostModeratorLink(s)Participants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Eric
Greitens		Vicky
Hartzler		Billy
Long		Mark
McCloskey		Dave
Schatz		Eric
Schmitt
May 31, 2022Greene County Republicans [80] Ginger Gooch
Darrell Moore		AAPPPA

Polling

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Eric
Greitens		Vicky
Hartzler		Billy
Long		Mark
McCloskey		Dave
Schatz		Eric
Schmitt		Other
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [81] July 21 – 24, 2022July 26, 202219.0%24.5%7.0%5.0%2.5%33.0%9.0%Schmitt +8.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens		Vicky
Hartzler		Billy
Long		Mark
McCloskey		Dave
Schatz		Eric
Schmitt		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [82] July 31 – August 1, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%21%18%5%5%3%34%–15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [83] [A] July 27–28, 2022818 (LV)± 3.4%18%22%6%5%5%34%2%8%
co/efficient (R) [84] [B] July 27, 2022891 (LV)± 3.3%17%16%–––28%––
SurveyUSA [85] July 24–27, 2022787 (LV)± 4.2%20%13%8%4%3%28%4%21%
Emerson College [86] July 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%16%21%5%4%2%33%1% [c] 17%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [87] [A] July 23–24, 2022802 (LV)± 3.4%18%25%8%4%3%32%–10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [88] July 22–24, 20221,059 (LV)± 2.9%20%24%7%5%2%27%–16%
The Tarrance Group (R) [89] [C] July 5–7, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%16%24%6%4%4%28%–18%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [90] June 28–30, 20221,072 (LV)± 2.9%24%24%6%3%4%23%–17%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [91] [A] June 22–23, 2022911 (LV)± 3.1%20%19%8%5%2%25%–21%
Emerson College [92] June 2–5, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%26%16%8%4%0%20%1% [d] 27%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [93] May 16–18, 20221,065 (LV)± 2.9%26%23%9%3%3%19%–17%
SurveyUSA [94] May 11–15, 2022642 (LV)± 5.0%26%11%7%2%2%17%7% [e] 28%
Remington Research (R) [95] [D] May 11–12, 2022945 (LV)± 3.0%21%23%–––29%10%17%
co/efficient (R) [96] [E] May 2–4, 2022806 (LV)± 3.5%26%19%7%5%2%14%–27%
NMB Research (R) [97] [F] April 6–7, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%23%20%7%3%2%25%20%–
OnMessage Inc. (R) [98] [G] April 4–6, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%22%23%11%5%2%16%–21%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [99] March 24–29, 20221,079 (LV)± 3.0%24%25%8%2%3%22%–16%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [100] [A] March 22–23, 2022941 (LV)± 3.1%21%19%9%5%3%24%–19%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [101] February 22–24, 20221,026 (LV)± 3.0%31%17%6%5%2%23%3%15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [102] [A] February 16–17, 2022917 (LV)± 3.1%25%18%8%5%2%22%–20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [103] [A] January 26–27, 2022902 (LV)± 3.1%28%19%7%5%1%23%–17%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [98] [G] January 2022– (LV)–30%16%9%6%1%16%–23%
CMA Strategies (R) [104] [H] January 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%27%12%6%4%1%15%–36%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [105] [A] December 1–2, 2021744 (LV)± 3.4%27%16%7%4%3%24%–19%
NMB Research (R) [97] [F] December 2021– (LV)–34%––––17%49%–
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [106] [A] October 20–21, 2021806 (LV)± 3.2%27%19%8%4%–25%–17%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [107] [E] October 3–5, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%36%10%6%4%–17%1% [f] 25%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [108] [A] September 8–9, 2021847 (LV)± 3.2%27%17%8%5%–28%–15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [109] [A] August 4–5, 2021911 (LV)± 3.0%27%13%12%9%–24%–15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [110] [A] June 9–10, 20211,011 (LV)± 3.0%34%14%–7%–25%–20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [111] [A] March 24–25, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%36%–14%––30%–20%
40%––––39%–21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Roy
Blunt		John
Brunner		Eric
Greitens		Vicky
Hartzler		Billy
Long		Eric
Schmitt		Jason
Smith		Ann
Wagner		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [111] [A] March 24–25, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%–2%31%8%6%18%9%12%14%
–10%38%––30%––22%
––36%––29%16%–19%
––38%––26%–18%18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [112] [E] March 23–25, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%––48%––11%7%9%26%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [113] [A] December 2–3, 2020840 (LV)± 3.4%43%–32%–––––25%

Results

Results by county: Schmitt 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Hartzler 30-40% 40-50% Greitens 40-50% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Missouri results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Schmitt
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Hartzler
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Greitens
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Eric Schmitt 299,282 45.6
Republican Vicky Hartzler 144,90322.1
Republican Eric Greitens 124,15518.9
Republican Billy Long 32,6035.0
Republican Mark McCloskey 19,5403.0
Republican Dave Schatz 7,5091.1
Republican Patrick A. Lewis6,0850.9
Republican Curtis D. Vaughn3,4510.5
Republican Eric McElroy2,8050.4
Republican Robert Allen2,1110.3
Republican C. W. Gardner2,0440.3
Republican Dave Sims1,9490.3
Republican Bernie Mowinski1,6020.2
Republican Deshon Porter1,5740.2
Republican Darrell Leon McClanahan III1,1390.2
Republican Rickey Joiner1,0840.2
Republican Robert Olson1,0810.2
Republican Dennis Lee Chilton7550.1
Republican Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr.6850.1
Republican Kevin C. Schepers6810.1
Republican Hartford Tunnell6370.1
Total votes655,675 100.0

Democratic primary

AELP national security director Lucas Kunce led in fundraising, but finished second. Lucas Kunce for MO.jpg
AELP national security director Lucas Kunce led in fundraising, but finished second.
College professor Gena Ross, a previous nominee for U.S. House, finished fifth. Gena Ross Instagram Video (cropped).jpg
College professor Gena Ross, a previous nominee for U.S. House, finished fifth.

As the Democratic primary season progressed, three main contenders emerged: Lucas Kunce, director of national security at the American Economic Liberties Project; Spencer Toder, a businessman; and Trudy Busch Valentine, heiress of the Anheuser-Busch brewing company. [114] Kunce and Toder both campaigned as anti-establishment populists, whereas Valentine campaigned in a staid manner with few public appearances. [114]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Trudy Busch Valentine, retired nurse, businesswoman, activist, and daughter of beer magnate August Busch Jr. [115]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Lucas Kunce

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

  • Rasheen Aldridge Jr., state representative for Missouri's 78th district (2019–2023) [133]
  • Michael Johnson, state representative for Missouri's 23rd district (2021–present) [133]
  • Wes Shoemyer, state senator for Missouri's 18th district (2007–2011) and state representative for Missouri's 9th district (2001–2007) [134]

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers and publications

Trudy Busch Valentine

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

  • Marlon Anderson, state representative for Missouri's 76th district (2021–present) [133]
  • Lauren Arthur, state senator for Missouri's 17th district (2018–present) and state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2015–2018) [133]
  • Ashley Aune, state representative for Missouri's 14th district (2021–present) [133]
  • Donna Baringer, state representative for Missouri's 82nd district (2017–present) [133]
  • Doug Beck, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2021–present) and state representative for Missouri's 92nd district (2017–2021) [133]
  • Steve Butz, state representative for Missouri's 81st district (2019–present) [133]
  • Keri Ingle, state representative for Missouri's 35th district (2019–present) [133]
  • Ian Mackey, state representative for Missouri's 99th district (2023–present) and 87th district (2019–2023) [133]
  • Tracy McCreery, state senator for Missouri's 24th district and state representative for Missouri's 88th district (2015–2023) and 83rd district (2012–2013) [133]
  • Wes Rogers, state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2019–present) [133]
  • Jill Schupp, state senator for Missouri's 24th district (2015–2023) and nominee for Missouri's 2nd congressional district in 2020 [133]
  • Scott Sifton, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2013–2021) and state representative for Missouri's 96th district (2011–2013) [115]

Local officials

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Lucas
Kunce		Spencer
Toder		Trudy Busch
Valentine		Carla "Coffee"
Wright		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [85] July 24–27, 2022547 (LV)± 5.6%14%3%40%6%9% [g] 28%
Emerson College [86] July 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%35%3%39%1%1% [h] 22%
Triton Polling & Research (D) [143] [I] May 2022~544 (LV)± 4.2%19%24%26%––31%
SurveyUSA [94] May 11–15, 2022500 (LV)± 5.0%10%3%8%3%12% [i] 63%
Public Policy Polling (D) [144] [J] April 13–14, 2022546 (LV)± 4.2%25%–18%––56%

Results

Results by county: Busch Valentine <40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Kunce/Toder tie <40% Kunce <40% 40-50% 50-60% 2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Missouri results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Busch Valentine
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kunce/Toder tie
  •   <40%
  Kunce
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Trudy Busch Valentine 158,957 43.2
Democratic Lucas Kunce 141,20338.3
Democratic Spencer Toder17,4654.7
Democratic Carla Coffee Wright14,4383.9
Democratic Gena Ross8,7492.4
Democratic Jewel Kelly6,4641.8
Democratic Lewis Rolen5,2471.4
Democratic Pat Kelly5,0021.4
Democratic Ronald (Ron) William Harris4,0741.1
Democratic Josh Shipp3,3340.9
Democratic Clarence (Clay) Taylor3,3220.9
Total votes368,255 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Jonathan Dine, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2016 [24]

Results

Libertarian primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2,973 100.0
Total votes2,973 100.0

Constitution primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Constitution primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Constitution Paul Venable 792 100.0
Total votes792 100.0

Independents

Candidates

John Wood, a former Bush administration official and a January 6 Committee investigator, announced that he would run for the seat as an independent on June 29, but he withdrew from the race after former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens lost the Republican primary to Schmitt. [145] [146]

Withdrew

Missed ballot deadline

  • Rick Seabaugh, sales manager [149]
  • Nicholas Strauss, network engineer [30]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
538 [150] Solid RNovember 7, 2022
The Cook Political Report [151] Solid RNovember 7, 2022
DDHQ [152] Solid RNovember 7, 2022
The Economist [153] Safe RNovember 7, 2022
Fox News [154] Solid RNovember 1, 2022
Inside Elections [155] Solid RNovember 3, 2022
Politico [156] Likely RAugust 12, 2022
RCP [157] Likely RNovember 5, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [158] Safe RNovember 7, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Missouri debates
No.DateHostModerator Republican Democratic Libertarian Constitution
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Eric Schmitt Trudy Busch ValentineJonathan DinePaul Venable
1September 16, 2022Missouri Press Association [159] David LiebA [j] PPP

Endorsements

Eric Schmitt (R)

Federal officials

State officials

State legislators

Newspapers

  • The Missouri Times [165]

Individuals

Organizations

Trudy Busch Valentine (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

  • Marlon Anderson, state representative for Missouri's 76th district (2021–present) [133]
  • Lauren Arthur, state senator for Missouri's 17th district (2018–present) and state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2015–2018) [133]
  • Ashley Aune, state representative for Missouri's 14th district (2021–present) [133]
  • Donna Baringer, state representative for Missouri's 82nd district (2017–present) [133]
  • Doug Beck, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2021–present) and state representative for Missouri's 92nd district (2017–2021) [133]
  • Steve Butz, state representative for Missouri's 81st district (2019–present) [133]
  • Keri Ingle, state representative for Missouri's 35th district (2019–present) [133]
  • Ian Mackey, state representative for Missouri's 87th district (2019–present) [133]
  • Tracy McCreery, state representative for Missouri's 88th district (2015–present) and 83rd district (2012–2013) [133]
  • Wes Rogers, state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2019–present) [133]
  • Jill Schupp, state senator for Missouri's 24th district (2015–present) and nominee for Missouri's 2nd congressional district in 2020 [133]
  • Scott Sifton, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2013–2021) and state representative for Missouri's 96th district (2011–2013) [115]

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

John Wood (I) (withdrawn)

Federal officials

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D)		Undecided
[k] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [178] October 24 – November 1, 2022November 1, 202252.0%41.3%6.7%Schmitt +10.7
FiveThirtyEight [179] May 15 – November 4, 2022November 4, 202253.1%41.9%5.0%Schmitt +11.2
270towin [180] October 29 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202252.0%40.8%7.2%Schmitt +11.2
Average52.4%41.3%6.3%Schmitt +11.0

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
Civiqs [181] November 4–7, 2022746 (LV)± 4.7%55%40%–4% [l] 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [182] October 30 – November 1, 20221,079 (LV)± 2.9%53%42%–2% [m] 2%
SurveyUSA [183] October 27 – November 1, 2022791 (LV)± 4.1%50%41%–3% [n] 6%
Emerson College [184] October 26–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%54%40%–5% [o] –
51%39%–4% [p] 6%
Remington Research (R) [185] [A] October 24–25, 20221,011 (LV)± 3.0%51%42%–3% [q] 4%
Emerson College [186] September 23–27, 20221,160 (VLV)± 2.8%49%38%–3%10%
SurveyUSA [187] September 14–18, 2022670 (LV)± 4.4%47%36%–4%14%
Remington Research (R) [188] [A] August 24–25, 20221,011 (LV)± 3.0%51%40%–2% [r] 7%
August 23, 2022Wood withdraws from the race [146]
YouGov/SLU [189] August 8–16, 2022900 (LV)± 3.8%49%38%–5%8%
44%31%10%3%13%
SurveyUSA [85] July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%36%30%9%6%18%
SurveyUSA [94] May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%47%34%––19%
Remington Research (R) [190] [A] April 27–28, 2022986 (LV)± 3.0%50%32%––18%
Hypothetical polling

Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [85] July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%31%26%13%10%21%
SurveyUSA [94] May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%42%36%––22%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [191] March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%46%45%––9%
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%34%26%––40%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [193] [E] October 3–4, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%47%40%––13%

Eric Greitens vs. Trudy Busch Valentine

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [85] July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%31%31%10%8%20%
SurveyUSA [94] May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%43%37%––20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [194] [A] April 27–28, 2022986 (LV)± 3.0%46%37%––17%

Vicky Hartzler vs. Lucas Kunce

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Vicky
Hartzler (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [85] July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%34%25%12%9%20%
SurveyUSA [94] May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%45%31%––24%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [191] March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%56%39%––5%
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%23%16%––61%

Vicky Hartzler vs. Trudy Busch Valentine

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Vicky
Hartzler (R)		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [85] July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%32%31%9%7%21%
SurveyUSA [94] May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%44%33%––23%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [194] [A] April 27–28, 2022986 (LV)± 3.0%49%33%––18%

Billy Long vs. Lucas Kunce

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Billy
Long (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		Undecided
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%16%17%67%

Eric Schmitt vs. Lucas Kunce

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [85] July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%37%27%10%6%20%
SurveyUSA [94] May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%46%34%––19%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [191] March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%55%40%––5%
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%28%23%––49%

Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce vs. generic independent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		Generic
Independent		Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM) [195] [K] February 2–6, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%27%25%26%22%

Eric Greitens vs. Jay Nixon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Jay
Nixon (D)		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [196] [A] July 14–15, 2021922 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [197] [A] April 7–8, 2021936 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%

Eric Greitens vs. Scott Sifton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [191] March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%45%45%10%
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%39%26%35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [193] [E] October 3–4, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%46%40%14%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [197] [A] April 7–8, 2021936 (LV)± 3.0%49%42%9%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [198] [A] February 17–18, 2021954 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%10%

Eric Greitens vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [199] [L] November 16–18, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%49%36%15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [193] [E] October 3–4, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%47%41%12%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%52%35%13%

Vicky Hartzler vs. Scott Sifton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Vicky
Hartzler (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [191] March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%57%37%6%
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%22%17%61%

Billy Long vs. Scott Sifton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Billy
Long (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%13%12%75%

Eric Schmitt vs. Jay Nixon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Jay
Nixon (D)		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [197] [A] April 7–8, 2021936 (LV)± 3.0%50%42%8%

Eric Schmitt vs. Scott Sifton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [191] March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%54%40%6%
co/efficient (R) [192] [B] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%23%18%60%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [197] [A] April 7–8, 2021936 (LV)± 3.0%51%39%10%

Roy Blunt vs. Jason Kander

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Roy
Blunt (R)		Jason
Kander (D)		Undecided
Data for Progress (D) [200] [M] January 10–12, 2021571 (LV)± 4.1%45%44%12%

Roy Blunt vs. Scott Sifton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Roy
Blunt (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [198] [A] February 17–18, 2021954 (LV)± 3.0%50%40%10%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [201] [A] January 6–7, 2021980 (LV)± 3.0%52%34%14%

Results

State Senate districts results US Senate election in Missouri by State Senate districts.png
State Senate districts results
State House districts results US Senate by Missouri State House 2022 districts.png
State House districts results

Schmitt prevailed over Valentine on Election Day. [202]

2022 United States Senate election in Missouri [203]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Eric Schmitt 1,146,966 55.43% +6.25%
Democratic Trudy Busch Valentine872,69442.18%−4.21%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine34,8211.68%−0.74%
Constitution Paul Venable14,6080.71%−0.20%
Write-in 410.00%−0.03%
Total votes2,069,130 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Schmitt won 6 of 8 congressional districts. [204]

DistrictSchmittBusch ValentineRepresentative
1st 20%79% Cori Bush
2nd 51%48% Ann Wagner
3rd 59%38% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 66%31% Vicky Hartzler (117th Congress)
Mark Alford (118th Congress)
5th 35%62% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 65%32% Sam Graves
7th 68%29% Billy Long (117th Congress)
Eric Burlison (118th Congress)
8th 73%24% Jason Smith

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Gardner and Tunnell with 1%; Allen, Breyfogle, Joiner, Lewis, McClanahan, Mowinski, Olson, Porter, and Sims with 0%
  4. ↑ McElroy, Joiner, and Vaughn with 0%
  5. ↑ Allen, Joiner, Lewis, McClanahan, McElroy, Schepers, and Sims with 1%; Breyfogle, Chilton, Gardner, Mowinski, Olson, Porter, Tunnell, and Vaughn with 0%
  6. ↑ Deets with 1%; Brinkmann and Porter with 0%
  7. ↑ Jewel Kelly, Ross, and all other candidates combined with 3%
  8. ↑ Harris, Jewel Kelly, Pat Kelly, Rolen, Ross, Shipp, and Taylor with 0%
  9. ↑ Harris, Jewel Kelly, Pat Kelly, Ross, and Taylor with 2%; Rolen and Shipp with 1%
  10. ↑ Schmitt was invited to the debate, but declined to attend
  11. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  13. ↑ Dine (L) with 2%
  14. ↑ "Another candidate" with 3%
  15. ↑ Dine (L) with 3%; Venable (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  16. ↑ Dine (L) with 2%; Venable (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  17. ↑ Dine with 2% and Venable with 1%
  18. ↑ Dine and Venable with 1%
  19. 1 2 Most of the city lies within Jackson County, with portions spilling into Clay, Cass, and Platte counties.

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Non-partisan poll conducted for the local non-partisan tipsheet Missouri Scout
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poll conducted for Missouri First Action, which supports Greitens
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Show Me Values PAC, which opposes Greitens
  4. ↑ Poll conducted for an undisclosed private client
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll conducted for Eric Greitens's campaign
  6. 1 2 Poll conducted for Protect Missouri Values PAC, which supports Schmitt
  7. 1 2 Poll conducted for Vicky Hartzler's campaign
  8. ↑ Poll conducted for the Missouri Chamber Political Institute
  9. ↑ This poll was conducted for Toder's campaign.
  10. ↑ This poll was conducted for Kunce's campaign.
  11. ↑ Poll conducted for the Serve America Movement
  12. ↑ Poll conducted for Team PAC, which supports Greitens
  13. ↑ Poll conducted for MoveOn

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References

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  77. 1 2 "Missouri Police back Schmitt for Senate". themissouritimes.com. April 22, 2022. Retrieved July 30, 2022.
  78. 1 2 "Support Eric Schmitt". Senate Conservative Fund. April 7, 2022. Retrieved April 8, 2022.
  79. 1 2 "ELECTION ALERT: Tea Party Express Endorses Eric Schmitt for Senate in Missouri". Tea Party Express. July 29, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
  80. ↑ Bacharier, Galen. "Missouri's Republican U.S. Senate candidates set to debate in Springfield this week". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  81. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  82. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  83. ↑ Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  84. ↑ co/efficient (R)
  85. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SurveyUSA
  86. 1 2 Emerson College
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  88. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  89. ↑ The Tarrance Group (R)
  90. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  91. ↑ Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  92. ↑ Emerson College
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  94. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SurveyUSA
  95. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  96. ↑ co/efficient (R)
  97. 1 2 NMB Research (R)
  98. 1 2 OnMessage Inc. (R)
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  100. ↑ Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
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  104. ↑ CMA Strategies (R)
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  116. 1 2 Suntrup, Jack (May 4, 2021). "St Louis startup owner and real estate broker joins list of Democrats running for US Senate". St. Louis Post Dispatch . Archived from the original on May 4, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  117. ↑ Robillard, Kevin (March 9, 2021). "Marine Veteran Launches Missouri Senate Bid After Roy Blunt Retirement". HuffPost . Archived from the original on March 9, 2021. Retrieved March 9, 2021.
  118. ↑ Sharkey, Dennis (June 30, 2021). "Platte City resident files for U.S. Senate seat". The Platte County Citizen. Archived from the original on July 8, 2021. Retrieved July 8, 2021.
  119. ↑ Newton, Ken (July 18, 2020). "Candidates line up to try to unseat congressman". News-Press Now. Retrieved July 31, 2020.
  120. ↑ Keller, Rudi (February 22, 2022). "Missouri GOP Senate hopefuls trade jabs as candidate filing opens". Missouri Independent. Retrieved February 23, 2022.
  121. ↑ Hancock, Jason (March 11, 2021). "Jay Nixon comeback? Democrats lining up for shot at open Missouri Senate seat". Missouri Independent . Archived from the original on March 11, 2021. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  122. ↑ "Tim Shepard Endorses Trudy Busch Valentine". us8.campaign-archive.com. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  123. ↑ Ballentine, Summer (February 8, 2021). "Missouri state lawmaker to challenge US Sen. Roy Blunt". Associated Press. Archived from the original on February 8, 2021. Retrieved February 10, 2021.
  124. ↑ Hancock, Jason (June 4, 2021). "Missouri Auditor Nicole Galloway announces she won't run for re-election in 2022". Missouri Independent. Retrieved August 9, 2023.
  125. 1 2 3 4 Gomez, Henry J. (May 6, 2021). "Democrats eye a comeback in Missouri, where post-Trump turmoil on display". NBC News . Retrieved August 12, 2023.
  126. ↑ Wilson, Reid (May 12, 2021). "Kansas City's Democratic mayor eyes Senate run". The Hill . Retrieved May 12, 2021.
  127. ↑ Dulle, Brian (January 5, 2022). "Quinton Lucas announces run for re-election as Kansas City mayor in 2023". FOX 4. Retrieved January 5, 2022.
  128. ↑ Lukitsch, Bill; Stark, Cortlynn (January 5, 2022). "KC Mayor Lucas, considered a potential Senate candidate, plans to run for mayor again". The Kansas City Star . Retrieved August 12, 2023.
  129. ↑ Suntrup, Jack (July 29, 2021). "Former Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon says he isn't running for U.S. Senate next year". STLtoday.com. Retrieved July 29, 2021.
  130. 1 2 3 Desrochers, Daniel (August 1, 2022). "Bernie Sanders endorses Lucas Kunce on eve of Missouri Democratic primary for U.S. Senate". The Kansas City Star . Retrieved August 1, 2022.
  131. ↑ Suntrup, Jack (July 20, 2022). "Bill Clay Sr. backs Democrat Lucas Kunce for US Senate in Aug. 2 primary". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  132. ↑ Ackley, Kate; McIntire, Mary; Akin, Stephanie (July 28, 2022). "At the Races: Pick your 'R' word". Roll Call . Retrieved July 29, 2022.
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  135. ↑ Holleman, Joe (July 19, 2022). "Jon Hamm showing up (virtually) for US Senate hopeful Lucas Kunce". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . Retrieved July 21, 2022.
  136. 1 2 Axelrod, Tal (March 9, 2021). "Democratic Marine veteran jumps into Missouri Senate race after Blunt retirement". The Hill . Retrieved July 21, 2022.
  137. ↑ "Indivisible St. Louis Endorses Lucas Kunce". suntimesnews.com. June 14, 2022. Retrieved June 15, 2022.
  138. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Non-Incumbent Senate Endorsements". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
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  140. ↑ "Editorial: We recommend Lucas Kunce in Missouri Democratic primary for U.S. Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. July 25, 2022. Retrieved July 27, 2022.
  141. 1 2 Desrochers, Daniel (June 2, 2022). "Cleaver backs Busch Valentine in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate as Greitens leads GOP". Kansas City Star .
  142. 1 2 "Tishaura Jones endorses Trudy Busch Valentine for US Senate". July 27, 2022.
  143. ↑ Triton Polling & Research (D)
  144. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  145. 1 2 Gans, Jared (June 29, 2022). "Former Jan. 6 committee counsel running for Senate in Missouri as independent". The Hill .
  146. 1 2 3 Hancock, Jason (August 23, 2022). "Citing Greitens defeat, John Wood abandons independent run for U.S. Senate in Missouri". Missouri Independent. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
  147. ↑ "Former mayor of Florissant to run as independent for vacant U.S. Senate seat". FOX 2. February 22, 2022. Retrieved February 22, 2022.
  148. ↑ Schneider, Thomas P. (March 31, 2022). "Opinion: Schatz, Valentine care about Missouri's future". The Missouri Times. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  149. ↑ Reeves, J. C. (March 19, 2021). "Cape Girardeau's Seabaugh announces independent run at U.S. Senate seat". Southeast Missourian. Archived from the original on March 25, 2021. Retrieved January 25, 2022.
  150. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  151. ↑ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  152. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  153. ↑ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  154. ↑ Numa, Rémy (November 1, 2022). "Fox News Power Rankings: Republicans expected to control House, but both parties hold on to pathways in Senate". Fox News. Retrieved November 8, 2022.
  155. ↑ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  156. ↑ "Missouri Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  157. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. March 6, 2022.
  158. ↑ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 6, 2022.
  159. ↑ Suntrup, Jack (September 17, 2022). "Three US Senate candidates face questions at forum. Schmitt skips event". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . Retrieved October 8, 2022.
  160. 1 2 3 "Three Former GOP Missouri Senators Endorse Eric Schmitt". nationalreview.com. August 19, 2022. Retrieved August 20, 2022.
  161. ↑ "Outgoing Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt endorses Eric Schmitt to replace him". August 18, 2022.
  162. ↑ "Missouri Primary Election Update". missourinet.com. Retrieved August 2, 2022.
  163. ↑ Joey Schneider (July 13, 2022). "Hawley on Schmitt: 'I absolutely endorse him'". Fox2now.com. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
  164. 1 2 3 4 "Missouri State-Wide Republican Office-Holders Endorse Schmitt for U.S. Senate". missouri.gop. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  165. ↑ "Press Release: Eric Schmitt receives Missouri Prosper endorsement". themissouritimes.com. August 31, 2022. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
  166. ↑ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Eric Schmitt in Missouri U.S. Senate Race". August 3, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  167. ↑ "Farm Bureau endorses Schmitt for Senate". August 30, 2022. Retrieved August 31, 2022.
  168. ↑ "Eric Schmitt picks up endorsement in O'Fallon, Missouri". www.fox2now.com. September 22, 2022. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
  169. 1 2 "Eric Schmitt's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
  170. ↑ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Missouri". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.
  171. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Trudy Busch Valentine for U.S. Senate". September 8, 2022.
  172. ↑ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". nea.org.
  173. ↑ "NWPC 2022 Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus .
  174. ↑ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org.
  175. ↑ "The Star editorial board's recommendations for Missouri and Kansas midterm elections" . The Kansas City Star . October 31, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
  176. ↑ "Jack Danforth backing independent campaign for US Senate". KSDK . June 30, 2022.
  177. ↑ "Jan. 6 committee counsel leaving to explore run for U.S. Senate in Missouri". The Washington Post. June 22, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  178. ↑ RealClearPolitics
  179. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  180. ↑ 270towin
  181. ↑ Civiqs
  182. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  183. ↑ SurveyUSA
  184. ↑ Emerson College
  185. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  186. ↑ Emerson College
  187. ↑ SurveyUSA
  188. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  189. ↑ YouGov/SLU
  190. ↑ Remington Research (R)
  191. 1 2 3 4 5 6 The Trafalgar Group (R)
  192. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 co/efficient (R)
  193. 1 2 3 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
  194. 1 2 Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  195. ↑ Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM)
  196. ↑ Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  197. 1 2 3 4 Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  198. 1 2 Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  199. ↑ WPA Intelligence (R)
  200. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
  201. ↑ Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  202. ↑ "Republican Eric Schmitt Wins Missouri Senate Race". sg.news.yahoo.com. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  203. ↑ "General Election November 8, 2022" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State.
  204. ↑ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

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