2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

Last updated

2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
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←  2022 (special) November 8, 2022 2024  →
  Mary Peltola Congressional Member Portrait (2) (cropped).jpeg Sarah Palin by Gage Skidmore 5 (cropped).jpg Nick Begich Official Campaign Profile Photo (Cropped).jpg
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round128,553
48.77%		67,866
25.74%		61,513
23.33%
Maximum round 137,263
54.96%		112,471
45.04%		Eliminated
2022 United States House of Representatives general election in Alaska by State House district.svg
2022 United States House of Representatives general election final round in Alaska results map by State House district.svg
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district results by county-equivalent.svg
Peltola:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Palin:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count. [1]

Contents

This was the second race in Alaska held under the 2020 Measure 2 election procedure, after year's special election. [2] All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary with each voter casting a single vote. Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Chris Bye [note 1] advanced to the runoff. [3] [4]

Under the rules of instant-runoff, Bye and Begich were eliminated in the first and second rounds, after they received the fewest votes; Palin received support from 66.8% of Begich's voters after he was eliminated. However, this was not enough to defeat Peltola, who went on to win with 55% of the vote. [5]

Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race and the best performance for any statewide candidate in the state since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won a district that Donald Trump carried in the 2020 presidential election; [lower-alpha 1] she outran Joe Biden's vote share by more than 20%, the highest overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.

Although Peltola's more-convincing margin of victory suggests that the pathological behavior of the special election was not repeated, election scientists noted that the early elimination of Begich and the opaque ballot-counting process created some uncertainty about the majority choice candidate, who may have been Begich, Peltola, or neither. [6] [7]

Primary election

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew

Declined

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew after advancing to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Libertarian Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Alaskan Independence Party

Declined

American Independent Party

Eliminated in primary

  • Robert Ornelas, pastor and perennial candidate [8]

Independents

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Primary election results [20] [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mary Peltola 70,295 36.80
Republican Sarah Palin 57,693 30.20
Republican Nick Begich III 50,021 26.19
Republican Tara Sweeney (withdrew)7,1953.77
Libertarian Chris Bye [lower-alpha 2] 1,189 0.62
Libertarian J. R. Myers5310.28
Republican Bob Lyons4470.23
Republican Jay Armstrong4030.21
Republican Brad Snowden3550.19
Republican Randy Purham3110.16
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess2700.14
Independent Sherry Strizak2520.13
American Independent Robert Ornelas2480.13
Republican Denise Williams2420.13
Independent Gregg Brelsford2410.13
Independent David Hughes2380.12
Independent Andrew Phelps2220.12
Independent Tremayne Wilson1940.10
Independent Sherry Mettler1910.10
Independent Silvio Pellegrini1870.10
Independent Ted Heintz1730.09
Independent Davis LeBlanc1170.06
Total votes191,015 100.00

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [34] Lean DNovember 1, 2022
Inside Elections [35] Lean DNovember 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [36] Lean DNovember 2, 2022
Politico [37] Lean DOctober 26, 2022
RCP [38] TossupNovember 3, 2022
Fox News [39] Lean DNovember 1, 2022
DDHQ [40] Lean DNovember 8, 2022
FiveThirtyEight [41] TossupNovember 3, 2022
The Economist [42] Lean DNovember 2, 2022

Debates and forums

As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.

A little over an hour before election results came in for the final round of the 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election, a debate was held for candidates of this house seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.

2022 Alaska U.S. Representative debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn
Nick Begich IIIChris Bye Sarah Palin Mary Peltola
1August 31, 2022 Alaska Oil and Gas Association Dave Karp YouTube PPPP
2October 4, 2022Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM) Dan Rohr PPPP
3October 10, 2022Anchorage Chamber of CommerceJulie Hasquet YouTube PPAP
4October 21, 2022Alaska Federation of NativesPPPP
5October 26, 2022Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News SourceLori Townsend, Mike Ross YouTube PPPP

Endorsements

Nick Begich III (R)
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Chris Bye (L)
Organizations
Sarah Palin (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Al Gross (I) (withdrawn)
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
U.S. senators

State legislators

Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Josh Revak (R) (withdrawn)
Individuals
  • Anne Garland Young, widow of former U.S. Representative Don Young [65]
Tara Sweeney (R) (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
State officials
Individuals
Organizations
  • ANCSA Regional Association [68]
Declined to endorse
State legislators

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 3] 		Margin
of error		RCV
count		Mary
Peltola
(D)		Sarah
Palin
(R)		Nick
Begich
(R)		Chris
Bye
(L)		Undecided /
Not Ranked /
Other
Dittman Research November 2–3, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%
148%25%23%3%1% U
1% O
249%26%25%Elim—
356%44%ElimElim—
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 20221,276 (LV)± 3.0%
149%26%21%5%—
251%27%22%Elim—
357%43%ElimElim—
3* [lower-alpha 4] 56%Elim44%Elim—
Dittman Research October 4–8, 2022411 (LV)± 4.8%
145%23%28%3%—
246%24%30%Elim—
352%Elim48%Elim—
Alaska Survey Research September 25–27, 20221,282 (LV)± 3.0%
149%23%26%2%—
250%24%26%Elim—
354%Elim46%Elim—
3* [lower-alpha 5] 56%44%ElimElim—
Dittman Research September 6–14, 2022394 (LV)± 4.9%
150%27%20%3%1% U
1% O
251%28%21%Elim—
358%42%ElimElim—
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] September 6–11, 20221,050 (LV) [lower-alpha 6] N/A [lower-alpha 7] 45%30%20%2%3% U
146%31%20%2%3% NR
247%32%21%Elim [lower-alpha 8] 4% NR
353%47%Elim [lower-alpha 9] Elim10% NR
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 3] 		Margin
of error		RCV
count		Nick
Begich
(R)		Sarah
Palin
(R)		Mary
Peltola
(D)		Tara
Sweeney
(R)		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research July 20–25, 20221,253 (LV)± 3.0%126%27%39%8%–
229%29%42%Elim–
354%Elim46%Elim–
3* [lower-alpha 10] Elim48%53%Elim–
Alaska Survey Research July 2–5, 20221,201 (LV)± 2.9%127%27%38%8%–
231%29%41%Elim–
356%Elim44%Elim–

Results

Preference flow November 2022 Alaska-AL congressional district election preference flow.svg
Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district election [69] [70]
PartyCandidateFirst choiceRound 1Round 2Round 3
Votes %TransferVotes %TransferVotes %TransferVotes %
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent)128,55348.77%+202128,75548.66%+1,031129,78649.22%+7,477137,26354.96%
Republican Sarah Palin 67,86625.74%+46468,33025.82%+1,06969,39926.32%+43,072112,47145.04%
Republican Nick Begich III61,51323.33%+99262,50523.62%+1,99464,49924.46%-64,499Eliminated
Libertarian Chris Bye4,5701.73%+4294,9991.89%-4,999Eliminated
Write-in 1,1080.42%-1,108Eliminated
Total votes263,610264,589263,684249,734
Blank or inactive ballots 2,208+9053,113+13,95017,063
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ The others being Marcy Kaptur, Jared Golden, Matt Cartwright, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
  2. ↑ Chris Bye placed fifth in the nonpartisan primary. However, the fourth-place finisher — Tara Sweeney — withdrew, placing Bye in the general election.
  3. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Begich and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  6. ↑ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
  7. ↑ Standard polling question.
  8. ↑ Bye eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 33% to Begich, 25% to Palin, 17% to Peltola, and 25% not ranked further.
  9. ↑ Begich eliminated. Vote transfer break own: 56% to Palin, 14% to Peltola, 30% not ranked further.
  10. ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP

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References

  1. ↑ Bye replaced fourth-place finisher Tara Sweeney after she dropped out of the race.
  1. ↑ Bradner, Eric (November 23, 2022). "CNN projects Rep. Mary Peltola will win race for Alaska House seat, thwarting Sarah Palin's political comeback again | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
  2. ↑ Ruskin, Liz (March 18, 2022). "Alaska Congressman Don Young has died". Alaska Public Media . Retrieved March 18, 2022.
  3. ↑ Ruskin, Liz (August 23, 2022). "Tara Sweeney ends campaign for U.S. House, opening spot for Libertarian on November ballot". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 6, 2022. 'If a candidate who advances out of the primary withdraws 64 or more days before the general election, the fifth place candidate will advance instead,' a Division of Elections spokeswoman said by email.
  4. ↑ Media, Andrew Kitchenman, KTOO and Alaska Public (November 18, 2020). "Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2". KTOO. Retrieved November 18, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  5. ↑ Cochrane, Emily (November 24, 2022). "Mary Peltola Wins Bid to Serve Full Term in the House for Alaska". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 25, 2022.
  6. ↑ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 10, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". arXiv: 2209.04764 [econ.GN].
  7. ↑ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (January 2, 2024). "Ranked Choice Wackiness in Alaska". Math Horizons. 31 (1): 24–27. doi:10.1080/10724117.2023.2224675. ISSN   1072-4117.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 "2022 Special Primary Election for U.S. Representative". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  9. ↑ "Candidate list keeps growing with former lawmaker Mary Sattler Peltola". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Brooks, James (June 16, 2022). "Democrats drop from U.S. House race, most backing Peltola" . Retrieved June 17, 2022.
  11. 1 2 3 4 BOHRER, BECKY (April 2, 2022). "Palin joins 50 others in running for Alaska US House seat". Alton Telegraph. Archived from the original on April 15, 2022. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
  12. ↑ Hickman, Matt (March 21, 2022). "Rumors swirl, but Al Gross remains the only newcomer who's a virtual lock to enter race to replace Don Young". Anchorage Press . Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  13. 1 2 3 4 Herz, Nathaniel (March 26, 2022). "An array of Alaska politicians ponder bids in the "absolute jungle" of elections to replace U.S. Rep. Don Young". Anchorage Daily News . Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  14. ↑ "Emil Notti, who ran against Don Young in 1973, jumps into the race". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
  15. 1 2 3 Rosen, Yereth (June 7, 2022). "Candidates make pitch for temporary service representing Alaska in U.S. House" . Retrieved June 7, 2022.
  16. ↑ "Begich, Constant to Run in Special Alaska US House Election". Associated Press. March 21, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  17. 1 2 Ulloa, Jazmine; Peters, Jeremy W. (April 2, 2022). "Sarah Palin Announces She's Running for Congress in Alaska". The New York Times.
  18. 1 2 Samuels, Iris (August 23, 2022). "Tara Sweeney drops out of Alaska U.S. House race". Anchorage Daily News . Archived from the original on August 24, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  19. ↑ "Robert Lyons". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "2022 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  21. ↑ Bohrer, Becky (March 28, 2022). "Gross, Coghill say they plan to run for Alaska US House seat". San Francisco Chronicle . Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 29, 2022. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  22. 1 2 "John Coghill pulls out of Congressional race, makes endorsement". KINY . Fairbanks, Alaska. June 20, 2022. Retrieved June 24, 2022.
  23. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (March 23, 2022). "Revak to file for Congress to replace Don Young" . Retrieved March 24, 2022.
  24. ↑ Bohrer, Becky (June 22, 2022). "Sweeney does not plan suit over Alaska House ballot decision". The Register Citizen. Associated Press . Retrieved June 24, 2022.
  25. ↑ Samuels, Iris; Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (April 2, 2022). "51 candidates: A wild U.S. House race takes shape in Alaska". Anchorage Daily News . Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  26. ↑ "Alaska's U.S. House candidate field expands as Friday deadline nears". Anchorage Daily News.
  27. ↑ Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (March 22, 2022). "After Young's death, Alaska's political world braces for a sea change and an elections marathon". Anchorage Daily News . Archived from the original on March 22, 2022. Retrieved March 22, 2022.
  28. ↑ Pellegrini, Silvio (April 6, 2022). "LinkedIn Profile". LinkedIn.
  29. ↑ Matt Hickman (March 19, 2022). "Source: Gross running for Congressional seat vacated by Young's passing". Anchorage Press . Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  30. ↑ Maguire, Sean [@SeanBMaguire] (June 21, 2022). "Al Gross is withdrawing from the U.S. House race, according to a press release from his campaign. Zero explanation why and he's not answering his cellphone. Endorses Mary Peltola and Tara Sweeney. Ping @alaskalandmine that broke the story" (Tweet). Retrieved June 20, 2022– via Twitter.
  31. 1 2 3 Ruskin, Liz (June 21, 2022). "Al Gross, a top four candidate for US House, calls it quits" . Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  32. 1 2 "OUR campaign gives voters hope for a better future for all Alaskans, especially our children. Thank you so much for your unwavering support, kind words, and love (the greatest gift), and the powerful statement you have made with your vote. My 2-min video".
  33. ↑ "August 16, 2022 Primary Election Summary Report - OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  34. ↑ "2022 House Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  35. ↑ "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  36. ↑ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 5, 2021. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  37. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
  38. ↑ "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
  39. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. September 20, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  40. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  41. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  42. ↑ "The Economist's 2022 House forecast". The Economist. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  43. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 "Sarah Palin gets national endorsements, as Nick Begich keeps racking up local Alaskan endorsements". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  44. ↑ "Mayor Bronson endorses Nick Begich for Congress". October 11, 2022.
  45. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (November 4, 2022). "Mayor Dan Sullivan endorses Nick Begich for Congress".
  46. ↑ "Surprise endorsement for Nick Begich for Congress comes from the heart of Palin World". April 20, 2022.
  47. ↑ "Nick Begich III speaks to News of the North". KINY . April 15, 2022. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
  48. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (April 21, 2022). "Nick Begich for Congress receives endorsement of Alaska Republican Party". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
  49. 1 2 Downing, Suzanne (May 12, 2022). "FreedomWorks endorses Nick Begich for Congress".
  50. ↑ "Chris Bye is the endorsed Libertarian candidate for U.S. House, began his campaign in 2021". Alaska Libertarian Party. April 2, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  51. ↑ "Nikki Haley returns the favor: endorses Sarah Palin for Congress". The Post and Courier . Retrieved April 3, 2022.
  52. ↑ "Trump endorses Palin in Alaska House special election". Politico . April 3, 2022. Retrieved April 3, 2022.
  53. ↑ Aabram, Virginia (May 9, 2022). "Elise Stefanik endorses Sarah Palin for Alaska House seat". Washington Examiner . Retrieved December 1, 2022.
  54. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
  55. ↑ "Log Cabin Republicans Announces Second Round of 2022 Endorsements". Log Cabin Republicans. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  56. ↑ "Meet Sarah Palin's Jewish opponent in Alaska's crowded Congressional race". The Forward . Retrieved April 12, 2022.
  57. ↑ Hughes, Zachariah (October 22, 2022). "At AFN, Murkowski says she'll vote for longtime friend and Democrat Mary Peltola for U.S. House". Anchorage Daily News . Archived from the original on October 23, 2022. Retrieved October 23, 2022.
  58. ↑ "NEW TV AD: In Home Stretch, Former AK Senate President Halford Endorses Peltola To Continue Don Young's Legacy In Congress" (PDF).
  59. ↑ "Democrats drop from U.S. House race, most backing Peltola". June 17, 2022. Archived from the original on June 21, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  60. ↑ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola" . Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  61. ↑ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES" . Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  62. ↑ Beacon, Alaska (October 24, 2022). "Alaska Federation of Natives make key election endorsements". ICT.
  63. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 22 Additional Pro-Equality Champions for U.S. House of Representatives". Human Rights Campaign. September 30, 2022. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  64. ↑ "Sealaska Encourages Support for Mary Peltola for Congress – Sealaska".
  65. ↑ "Don Young's wife endorses Revak in Alaska House race". The Hill . Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  66. ↑ "Tara Sweeney kicks off campaign for Congress, names campaign manager Karina Waller, others in key positions". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  67. ↑ "With 64 days to special primary to replace Don Young, congressional candidates are on the move around Alaska". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  68. ↑ "Revak, Sweeney get endorsements in bid for Alaska House seat". The Seattle Times . Associated Press . Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  69. ↑ "RCV Detailed Report | General Election | State of Alaska" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved December 29, 2022.
  70. ↑ "State of Alaska 2022 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
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