2022 United States Senate election in Maryland

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2022 United States Senate election in Maryland
Flag of Maryland.svg
←  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  →
  Chris Van Hollen official portrait 115th Congress (cropped).jpg Chris Chaffee.jpg
Nominee Chris Van Hollen Chris Chaffee
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,316,897682,293
Percentage65.77%34.07%
2022 United States Senate election in Maryland results map by county.svg
MD Senate 2022.svg
Van Hollen:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Chaffee:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Chris Van Hollen
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Chris Van Hollen
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Maryland was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Maryland. The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on July 19, 2022. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen was first elected in 2016 with 60.9% of the vote, winning the seat of retiring incumbent Barbara Mikulski. He ran for a second term against Chris Chaffee, the Republican nominee. [2]

Shortly after polls closed on November 8, 2022, the Associated Press called the race for Van Hollen. [3] He overperformed his 2016 numbers and flipped four counties that he lost in his first election: Anne Arundel (home to the state capital Annapolis), Frederick, Kent, and Talbot.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Michelle Laurence Smith, federal employee and business owner [5]

Endorsements

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Van Hollen 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Maryland results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Van Hollen
  •   60–70%
  •   70-80%
  •   80-90%
Democratic primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Chris Van Hollen (incumbent) 535,014 80.81%
Democratic Michelle Laurence Smith127,08919.19%
Total votes662,103 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Chris Chaffee, homebuilding contractor and perennial candidate [a] [34] [35]

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Chris Chaffee

Organizations

Nnabu Eze

Organizations

Lorie Friend

State legislators

Reba Hawkins

Organizations

Joseph Perez

Organizations

James Tarantin

State legislators

Results

Results by county: Chaffee 10-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% Friend 10-20% 20-30% 30-40% Thormann 10-20% Tarantin 20-30% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Maryland results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Chaffee
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Friend
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Thormann
  •   10–20%
  Tarantin
  •   20–30%
Republican primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Chris Chaffee 50,514 20.78%
Republican Lorie Friend35,71414.69%
Republican John Thormann33,29013.69%
Republican Joseph Perez26,35910.84%
Republican George Davis21,0958.68%
Republican James Tarantin20,5148.44%
Republican Reba Hawkins18,0577.43%
Republican Jon McGreevey14,1285.81%
Republican Todd Puglisi13,5505.57%
Republican Nnabu Eze9,9174.08%
Total votes243,138 100.0%

Other candidates

Write-in

Declared

  • Scottie Griffin (Democratic) [34]
  • Andrew Wildman (unaffiliated) [34]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [46] Solid DMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [47] Solid DJuly 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] Safe DJune 15, 2022
Politico [49] Solid DApril 1, 2022
RCP [50] Safe DJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News [51] Solid DMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [52] Solid DJuly 20, 2022
538 [53] Solid DJune 30, 2022
The Economist [54] Safe DSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Chris Chaffee (R)

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Chris
Van Hollen (D)		Chris
Chaffee (R)		OtherUndecided
Goucher College [62] September 8–12, 2022748 (LV)± 3.6%56%33%2% [d] 8%
Hypothetical polling

Chris Van Hollen vs. Larry Hogan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Chris
Van Hollen (D)		Larry
Hogan (R)		OtherUndecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [63] [A] November 29 – December 1, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%37%49%–14%
Change Research (D) [64] September 29 – October 1, 2020650 (V)± 4.6%50%34%–16%
University of Maryland/Washington Post [65] October 9–14, 2019819 (RV)± 4.5%42%50%3% [e] 5%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Maryland [66]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Chris Van Hollen (incumbent) 1,316,897 65.77% +4.88%
Republican Chris Chaffee682,29334.07%−1.60%
Write-in 3,1460.16%+0.02%
Total votes2,002,336 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

By county
County Chris Van Hollen
Democratic 		Chris Chaffee
Republican 		Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%
Allegany 7,24433.5614,32666.36170.08-7,082-32.8121,587
Anne Arundel 123,69657.3991,47142.443770.1732,22514.95215,544
Baltimore 175,41764.2397,30735.634020.1578,11028.60273,126
Baltimore City 129,25790.1513,8499.662800.19115,40880.49143,386
Calvert 17,00745.4420,38254.46370.10-3,375-9.0237,426
Caroline 3,58633.657,05466.20160.15-3,468-32.5510,656
Carroll 27,77538.7843,76161.10900.13-15,986-22.3271,626
Cecil 12,13236.8620,72562.97560.17-8,593-26.1132,913
Charles 38,27070.1216,20729.70970.1822,06340.4354,574
Dorchester 4,94743.126,51156.75150.13-1,564-13.6311,473
Frederick 58,70855.2647,40644.621190.1111,30210.64106,233
Garrett 2,60823.168,64776.7870.06-6,039-53.6211,262
Harford 45,27343.9057,71355.961500.14-12,440-12.06103,136
Howard 92,20570.9037,61728.922300.1854,58841.97130,052
Kent 4,46152.953,95046.88140.175116.078,425
Montgomery 276,48280.5965,95619.236340.18210,52661.36343,072
Prince George's 218,72691.0421,1278.793980.17197,59982.25240,251
Queen Anne's 8,71038.1914,06461.67310.14-5,354-23.4822,805
Somerset 2,65639.024,14660.9150.07-1,490-21.896,807
St. Mary's 15,65641.6721,86958.21430.11-6,213-16.5437,568
Talbot 9,02851.338,54848.60130.074802.7317,589
Washington 19,42040.0029,07259.87640.13-9,652-19.8848,556
Wicomico 14,29646.9816,10452.92320.10-1,808-5.9430,432
Worcester 9,33739.1714,48160.75190.08-5,144-21.5823,837
Totals1,316,89765.77682,29334.073,1460.16634,60431.692,002,336

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Van Hollen won 7 of 8 congressional districts. [67]

DistrictVan HollenChaffeeRepresentative
1st 42.7%57.2% Andy Harris
2nd 60.8%39.1% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 62.3%37.5% John Sarbanes
4th 91%8.9% Anthony Brown (117th Congress)
Glenn Ivey (118th Congress)
5th 67.1%32.8% Steny Hoyer
6th 54.4%45.5% David Trone
7th 83.4%16.4% Kweisi Mfume
8th 81.9%17.9% Jamie Raskin

Notes

  1. ↑ Candidate for Maryland's 5th congressional district in 2010 and nominee in 2014; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018
  2. ↑ Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and for Maryland's 4th congressional district in 2020; Green nominee for Maryland's 3rd congressional district in 2016
  3. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ "Some other candidate" (volunteered response) with 2%
  5. ↑ "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "Other" with 0%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ This poll was paid for by the Senate Leadership Fund

See also

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References

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  2. 1 2 Kurtz, Josh (April 16, 2021). "Mizeur Collects $350K for Congressional Bid; Aruna Miller Raising Money for Possible House Run". Maryland Matters. Retrieved May 7, 2021.
  3. ↑ "2022 race calls". Associated Press . November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 8, 2022.
  4. ↑ Kurtz, Josh (February 15, 2022). "Political Notes: A Barnburner in Southern Md., Van Hollen Makes It Official, Masking Changes, Senator Pulls Chief Judge Bill". Maryland Matters . Retrieved February 15, 2022.
  5. ↑ "Michelle Smith for Senate". September 11, 2020. Retrieved January 19, 2021.
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  38. ↑ "Sheriff: US Senate candidate falsely reported child sex trafficking in Harford Co". WMAR-TV . July 15, 2022. Retrieved July 18, 2022.
  39. ↑ "MD Republican Senate candidate charged with making a false report after allegedly claiming adult bookstore trafficked children". CBS News . July 15, 2022. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
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  42. ↑ "AP source: GOP Maryland Gov. Hogan won't run for Senate". WBAL. February 8, 2022. Retrieved February 8, 2022.
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  54. ↑ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
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  62. ↑ Goucher College
  63. ↑ WPA Intelligence (R)
  64. ↑ Change Research (D)
  65. ↑ University of Maryland/Washington Post
  66. ↑ "Official 2022 Gubernatorial General Election Results for U.S. Senator". Maryland State Board of Elections.
  67. ↑ "Maryland State Board of Elections".

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