2022 United States Senate election in Vermont

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2022 United States Senate election in Vermont
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  Peter Welch official Senate photo (cropped).jpg Gerald Malloy for US Senate Vermont (cropped).jpg
Nominee Peter Welch Gerald Malloy
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote196,57580,468
Percentage68.47%28.03%
2022 United States Senate election in Vermont results map by county.svg
2022 United States Senate election in Vermont results map by municipality.svg
VT Senate 2022.svg
Welch:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Malloy:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Tie:     40–50%
No Vote/Data:     
U.S. senator before election

Patrick Leahy
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Peter Welch
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont. It was held concurrently with U.S. Senate elections in other states, along with elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections across the country. The incumbent senator, Democrat Patrick Leahy, announced on November 15, 2021, that he would not seek re-election to a ninth term, [1] leaving the seat open for the first time since 1974, when Leahy first elected.

Contents

Primary elections were held on August 9, 2022, with Peter Welch, the incumbent U.S. Representative from the state's at-large congressional district, winning the Democratic primary, while U.S. Army veteran Gerald Malloy won the Republican primary. In heavily Democratic Vermont, the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election, and on election day, Welch defeated Malloy in a landslide and becoming the first non-incumbent Democratic Senator in the state's history. He won all but one county in the state, garnering 68.5% of the vote statewide to Malloy's 28.0%. The race was called for Welch shortly after polls closed. [2]

At 75 years old, Welch became the oldest person ever elected to a first term in the Senate, a record previously held by Frederick H. Gillett in 1924. [3] He also became only the second Democrat ever elected to the Senate from Vermont, after Leahy. [2]

Democratic primary

Following Leahy's announcement that he would retire, speculation arose as to which Democrats could run to succeed him; Newsweek cited two of the leading possible contenders for the nomination as Peter Welch, who had served as U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district since 2006, and President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate Becca Balint. [4] Also considering a run was state representative Tanya Vyhovsky. [5] However, candidates were reluctant to enter the race due to speculation that Bernie Sanders, Vermont's popular junior senator, would endorse Welch for the open seat. [5] It was widely considered that an endorsement from Sanders would essentially lock up the race for Welch. [5] While both men were both considered to be associated with the left-wing of the Democratic Party, Welch was noted by The Intercept to be rather more moderate than Sanders was, especially when compared to Vyhovsky. [5]

Welch announced his campaign for the seat on November 22, 2021, pledging in a campaign video to support Medicare for All and the Green New Deal; he was immediately endorsed by Sanders. [6] [7]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Isaac Evans-Frantz, peace activist [10]
  • Niki Thran, physician [11]

Declined

Endorsements

Isaac Evans-Frantz
Organizations
Peter Welch
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Isaac
Evans-Frantz		Niki
Thran		Peter
Welch		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire July 21–25, 2022352 (LV)± 5.2%6%1%82%0%10%

Results

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Welch 70-80% 80-90% 90-100% 2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Vermont results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Welch
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Peter Welch 86,603 87.01%
Democratic Isaac Evans-Frantz7,2307.26%
Democratic Niki Thran5,1045.13%
Write-in 5990.60%
Total votes99,536 100.0%

Republican primary

Former U.S. Attorney Christina Nolan finished second in the primary. Christina E. Nolan official photo (cropped).jpg
Former U.S. Attorney Christina Nolan finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Myers Mermel
Governors
Organizations
Christina Nolan
U.S. Senators
Governors

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Gerald
Malloy		Myers
Mermel		Christina
Nolan		Undecided
University of New Hampshire July 21–25, 2022196 (LV)± 7.0%30%3%24%43%

Results

Results by county Malloy 40-50% 50-60% Nolan 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Vermont results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Malloy
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Nolan
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Gerald Malloy 12,169 42.39%
Republican Christina Nolan 10,82537.70%
Republican Myers Mermel5,22718.21%
Write-in 4891.70%
Total votes28,710 100.0%

Progressive primary

Candidates

Withdrew after winning primary

Declined

Results

Progressive primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Progressive Martha Abbott 473 86.63%
Write-in 7313.37%
Total votes546 100.0%

Minor-parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [58] Solid DNovember 19, 2021
Inside Elections [59] Solid DJanuary 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [60] Safe DNovember 3, 2021
Politico [61] Solid DAugust 12, 2022
RCP [62] Safe DNovember 1, 2022
Fox News [63] Solid DMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [64] Solid DJuly 20, 2022
538 [65] Solid DJune 30, 2022
The Economist [66] Safe DSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Gerald Malloy (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Individuals
State legislators

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Peter
Welch (D)		Gerald
Malloy (R)		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D) October 21–26, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%63%32%–4%
University of New Hampshire September 29 – October 3, 2022765 (LV)± 3.5%62%28%2% [c] 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 3–7, 20221,072 (LV)± 2.9%50%43%2%5%
Hypothetical polling
Peter Welch vs. Christina Nolan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Peter
Welch (D)		Christina
Nolan (R)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022583 (LV)± 4.1%62%27%1%10%
Patrick Leahy vs. Phil Scott
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Patrick
Leahy (D)		Phil
Scott (R)		OtherUndecided
VPR/Vermont PBS September 3–15, 2020582 (LV)± 4.0%38%41%7%15%

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Vermont debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Peter Welch Gerard Malloy
1Oct. 13, 2022 Vermont Public Radio Mikaela Lefrak Youtube PP

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Vermont [74]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Peter Welch 196,575 68.47% +7.21%
Republican Gerald Malloy80,46828.03%−5.00%
Independent Dawn Marie Ellis2,7520.96%N/A
Green Mountain Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout1,5740.55%N/A
Independent Kerry Patrick Raheb1,5320.53%N/A
Independent Mark Coester1,2730.44%N/A
Independent Stephen Duke1,2090.42%N/A
Independent Cris Ericson 1,1050.38%N/A
Write-in 6120.21%+0.11%
Total votes287,100 100% N/A
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Candidate is a member of the Progressive Party, but ran with the Democratic Party's endorsement under Vermont's electoral fusion system
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Ericson (I) with 1%; Ellis (I) with 1%

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References

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  71. ↑ "Republican US Senate candidate Gerald Malloy endorsed by Donald Trump". VT Digger. November 3, 2022.
  72. 1 2 "Military leaders endorse Gerald Malloy for U.S. Senate". VT Digger. June 29, 2022. Retrieved September 10, 2022.
  73. 1 2 3 4 "Republican state legislators unite behind Gerald Malloy for U.S. Senate". VT Digger. August 2, 2022. Retrieved September 10, 2022.
  74. ↑ "Election Results". Vermont Secretary of State.
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