2022 Vermont gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Vermont gubernatorial election
Flag of Vermont.svg
  2020 November 8, 2022 2024  
Turnout57.62% Decrease2.svg
  Phil Scott 2019 (cropped).jpg Brenda Siegel (cropped).png
Nominee Phil Scott Brenda Siegel
Party Republican Democratic
Alliance Progressive
Popular vote202,14768,248
Percentage70.91%23.94%

2022 Vermont gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Vermont gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
VT Governor 2022.svg
Scott:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Siegel:     50–60%
     No votes

Governor before election

Phil Scott
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Scott
Republican

The 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Vermont. Incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fourth term in a landslide, defeating Democratic nominee Brenda Siegel. [1] [2]

Contents

This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. During the 2022 season, Scott enjoyed one of the highest approval ratings of any governor in the nation, and was expected to easily win reelection. As such, he carried every municipality in the state, this time with the largest margin in a Vermont gubernatorial race since Howard Dean's landslide in 1996. Scott's 47-point victory margin was the largest for a Republican candidate since 1950, even while Democratic congressman Peter Welch won the concurrent U.S. Senate election by a 40-point margin. This was the second most lopsided election of the 2022 Gubernatorial election cycle, only behind the election in Wyoming.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Stephen Bellows, landscaping contractor [3]
  • Peter Duval, engineer and former Underhill selectman [4]

Declined

Results

Results by county:
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Scott
60-70%
70-80% 2022 Vermont gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Scott
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 20,319 68.56%
Republican Stephen C. Bellows5,40218.22%
Republican Peter Duval3,62712.24%
Write-in 2900.98%
Total votes29,638 100.0%

Progressive primary

Candidates

Withdrew after winning primary

Replacement nominee

  • Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in 2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020 (cross-endorsement of Democratic nominee) [8] [6] [7]

Results

Progressive primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Progressive Susan Hatch Davis 470 87.36%
Write-in 6812.64%
Total votes538 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in 2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020 [9] [10]

Declined

Endorsements

Brenda Siegel
Federal politicians
State politicians

Results

Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Brenda Siegel 56,287 85.92%
Write-in 9,22714.08%
Total votes65,514 100.0%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Write-ins

Due to Vermont's completely unrestricted write-in laws, many high school students across the United States were legally able to run for governor.

Candidates

Declared

  • Jackson Williams, high school student from Las Vegas [16]
  • Landon Best, high school student from Indiana

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [17] Solid RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [18] Solid RJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [19] Safe RAugust 18, 2022
Politico [20] Solid RNovember 3, 2022
RCP [21] Safe RNovember 1, 2022
Fox News [22] Solid RAugust 22, 2022
538 [23] Solid RAugust 26, 2022
Elections Daily [24] Safe RNovember 7, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Phil
Scott (R)
Brenda
Siegel (D/P)
OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D) October 21–26, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%65%24%5% [lower-alpha 3] 6%
University of New Hampshire September 29 – October 3 2022865 (LV)± 3.5%48%31%9% [lower-alpha 4] 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 3–7, 20221,072 (LV)± 2.9%68%15%5%12%
University of New Hampshire July 21–25, 2022651 (LV)± 3.8%60%16%8% [lower-alpha 5] 16%
Hypothetical polling
Phil Scott vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Phil
Scott (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022583 (LV)± 4.1%50%25%24%

Results

2022 Vermont gubernatorial election [25]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 202,147 70.91% +0.75
Democratic/Progressive Brenda Siegel [lower-alpha 6] 68,24823.94%
Independent Kevin Hoyt6,0222.06%+0.80
Independent Peter Duval4,7231.62%N/A
Independent Bernard Peters2,3150.79%N/A
Write-in 1,3460.46%+0.02
Total votes284,801 100%
Rejected ballots255
Blank ballots6,899
Turnout 291,95557.62%
Registered electors 506,666
Republican hold

See also

Notes

  1. Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2018; Democratic candidate for Attorney General in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2018 and 2020; Democratic candidate for Governor in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Secretary of State in 2018 and 2020; Republican candidate for the US House in 2018; Republican candidate for Auditor of Accounts in 2018.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Hoyt (I) with 3%; Duval (I) with 1%; Peters (I) with 1%
  4. Hoyt and Duval with 3%; Peters with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  5. Davis and "Other" with 4%
  6. Candidate received the nominations of both the Democratic and Progressive parties and will be listed on the ballot as "Democratic/Progressive" (candidate is primarily a Democrat).

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References

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  10. Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2022). "Vermont activist Brenda Siegel launches Democratic bid for governor". VTDigger.
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  15. 1 2 3 "Brenda Siegel's odds of winning are long — but her message may still strike a chord". October 30, 2022.
  16. Hall, Dave (March 28, 2022). "14-year-old Nevada boy is running for governor in Vermont (because legally, he can)". Fox 5 Vegas.
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Official campaign websites