2022 Vermont gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Vermont gubernatorial election
Flag of Vermont.svg
←  2020 November 8, 2022 2024  →
Turnout57.6% Decrease2.svg
  Phil Scott 2019 (cropped).jpg Brenda Siegel (cropped).png
Nominee Phil Scott Brenda Siegel
Party Republican Democratic
Alliance Progressive
Popular vote202,14768,248
Percentage70.9%23.9%
2022 Vermont gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Vermont gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
VT Governor 2022.svg
Scott:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Siegel:     50–60%
     No votes
Governor before election

Phil Scott
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Scott
Republican

The 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Vermont. Incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fourth term in a landslide, defeating Democratic nominee Brenda Siegel. [1] [2]

Contents

This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. During the 2022 season, Scott enjoyed one of the highest approval ratings of any governor in the nation, and was expected to easily win reelection. As such, he carried every municipality in the state, this time with the largest margin in a Vermont gubernatorial race since Howard Dean's landslide in 1996. Scott's 47-point victory margin was the largest for a Republican candidate since 1950, even while Democratic congressman Peter Welch won the concurrent U.S. Senate election by a 40-point margin.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Stephen Bellows, landscaping contractor [3]
  • Peter Duval, engineer and former Underhill selectman [4]

Declined

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Scott 60-70% 70-80% 2022 Vermont gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Scott
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 20,319 68.56%
Republican Stephen C. Bellows5,40218.22%
Republican Peter Duval3,62712.24%
Write-in 2900.98%
Total votes29,638 100.0%

Progressive primary

Candidates

Withdrew after winning primary

Replacement nominee

  • Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in 2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020 (cross-endorsement of Democratic nominee) [8] [6] [7]

Results

Progressive primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Progressive Susan Hatch Davis 470 87.36%
Write-in 6812.64%
Total votes538 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in 2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020 [9] [10]

Declined

Endorsements

Brenda Siegel
Federal politicians
State politicians

Results

Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Brenda Siegel 56,287 85.92%
Write-in 9,22714.08%
Total votes65,514 100.0%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Write-ins

Due to Vermont's completely unrestricted write-in laws, many high school students across the United States were legally able to run for governor. While there were more candidates than those listed, those left unlisted did not receive any votes and/or did not receive any noteworthy media coverage.

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [17] Solid RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [18] Solid RJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [19] Safe RAugust 18, 2022
Politico [20] Solid RNovember 3, 2022
RCP [21] Safe RNovember 1, 2022
Fox News [22] Solid RAugust 22, 2022
538 [23] Solid RAugust 26, 2022
Elections Daily [24] Safe RNovember 7, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Phil
Scott (R)		Brenda
Siegel (D/P)		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D) October 21–26, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%65%24%5% [lower-alpha 3] 6%
University of New Hampshire September 29 – October 3 2022865 (LV)± 3.5%48%31%9% [lower-alpha 4] 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 3–7, 20221,072 (LV)± 2.9%68%15%5%12%
University of New Hampshire July 21–25, 2022651 (LV)± 3.8%60%16%8% [lower-alpha 5] 16%
Hypothetical polling
Phil Scott vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Phil
Scott (R)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022583 (LV)± 4.1%50%25%24%

Results

2022 Vermont gubernatorial election [25]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 202,147 70.91% +0.75
Democratic/Progressive Brenda Siegel [lower-alpha 6] 68,24823.94%
Independent Kevin Hoyt6,0222.06%+0.80
Independent Peter Duval4,7231.62%N/A
Independent Bernard Peters2,3150.79%N/A
Write-in 1,3460.46%+0.02
Total votes284,801 100%
Rejected ballots255
Blank ballots6,899
Turnout 291,95557.62%
Registered electors 506,666
Republican hold

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2018; Democratic candidate for Attorney General in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2018 and 2020; Democratic candidate for Governor in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Secretary of State in 2018 and 2020; Republican candidate for the US House in 2018; Republican candidate for Auditor of Accounts in 2018.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Hoyt (I) with 3%; Duval (I) with 1%; Peters (I) with 1%
  4. ↑ Hoyt and Duval with 3%; Peters with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  5. ↑ Davis and "Other" with 4%
  6. ↑ Candidate received the nominations of both the Democratic and Progressive parties and will be listed on the ballot as "Democratic/Progressive" (candidate is primarily a Democrat).

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References

  1. 1 2 Cutler, Calvin (May 17, 2022). "Phil Scott to seek 4th term as Vermont governor". WCAX-TV . Archived from the original on May 17, 2022. Retrieved May 17, 2022.
  2. ↑ "Brenda Siegel wins Democratic nomination for Governor | Vermont Business Magazine". vermontbiz.com. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
  3. ↑ "2022 Primary Candidate Listing". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved May 9, 2022.
  4. 1 2 3 "Buckle up: Vermont's Robust August Primary Contests Take Shape".
  5. 1 2 3 "2022 August Primary Federal and Statewide Office Canvass Report" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 "General Election Candidates". sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  7. 1 2 Cutler, Calvin (August 25, 2022). "Three Vt. Democratic primary winners to run as fusion candidates". wcax.com. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  8. ↑ "General Election 2022". The Vermont Progressive Party. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  9. 1 2 Cutler, Calvin (March 4, 2022). "Vt. Democrats testing the waters for Gov. Scott challenge". WCAX.com.
  10. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2022). "Vermont activist Brenda Siegel launches Democratic bid for governor". VTDigger.
  11. 1 2 3 4 Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 - Online Guide to Vermont Politics". www.politics1.com. Retrieved June 6, 2021.
  12. ↑ "Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint to run for Congress | Vermont Business Magazine". Vermont Biz. December 13, 2021.
  13. ↑ "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat". myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
  14. ↑ "Racine Mulls Run for Governor". The Vermont Political Observer. February 21, 2022. Retrieved February 24, 2022.
  15. 1 2 3 "Brenda Siegel's odds of winning are long — but her message may still strike a chord". October 30, 2022.
  16. ↑ Hall, Dave (March 28, 2022). "14-year-old Nevada boy is running for governor in Vermont (because legally, he can)". Fox 5 Vegas.
  17. ↑ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  18. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  19. ↑ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  20. ↑ "Vermont Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  21. ↑ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  22. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  23. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  24. ↑ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  25. ↑ "2022 General Election Canvass Report" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 19, 2022. Retrieved November 19, 2022.
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