Landslide victory

A landslide victory is an election result in which the winning candidate or party achieves a decisive victory by an overwhelming margin, securing a very large majority of votes or seats far beyond the typical competitive outcome. ^{[1] [2]} The term became popular in the 1800s to describe a victory in which the opposition is "buried", ^[1] similar to the way in which a geological landslide buries whatever is in its path. A landslide victory for one party is often accompanied by an electoral wipeout for the opposition, as the overwhelming support for the winning side inflicts a decisive loss on its rivals. What qualifies as a landslide victory can vary depending on the type of electoral system, as the term does not entail a precise, technical, or universally agreed-upon measurement. Instead, it is used informally in everyday language, making it subject to interpretation. Even within a single electoral system, there is no consensus on the exact margin that constitutes a landslide victory. ^[1]

A landslide victory implies a powerful expression of popular will and a ringing endorsement by the electorate for the winner’s political platform. A landslide can be viewed by a winning candidate or party as a mandate or a tacit authorization from the public to implement their proposed policies and pursue their agenda with confidence. Emboldened by the result, the winner may undertake ambitious reforms or significant policy shifts to reflect the electorate’s desire for meaningful change. ^[3]

A combination of factors, including charismatic leadership, a favorable shift in public sentiment driven by dissatisfaction with or support for the status quo, strategic electoral campaigning and a positive media portrayal, can create the conditions necessary for a landslide victory. A landslide may fundamentally reshape the political landscape of a country; one example of this phenomenon is Franklin D. Roosevelt's election as US president in 1932. ^[4] In a post-landslide scenario, a winning party can sometimes implement its policies with little resistance, while its severely weakened opposition may struggle to perform essential checks and balances.

Notable examples

Australia

Local and mayoral elections:

• 2008 Brisbane City Council election – The Liberal Party won a landslide victory over the Labor Party. Campbell Newman was re-elected Lord Mayor of Brisbane with 66.1% of the two-party-preferred vote, with a swing of 13.7%. ^[5] The LNP won 16 of the 26 wards.

Map displaying Labor's landslide victory at the 2021 Western Australian state election. Seats won by Labor are in red, seats won by the Liberals are in blue and seats won by the Nationals are in green.

• 2021 Mandurah City Council election – Rhys Williams was re-elected Mayor of Mandurah with 85% of the vote. ^[6]

State and territory elections:

• 2021 Western Australian state election – Mark McGowan led the Labor Party to win 53 out of the 59 seats in the lower house. The Labor Party had a primary vote of 59.92% and a two-party-preferred vote of 69.68%. The National Party won 4 seats and the Liberal Party won 2 seats, making the National Party the official opposition, the first time they had held this status since the 1940s. To date, the election is the most decisive result at any Australian state or federal election since Federation, in terms of both percentage of lower house seats controlled by the governing party (89.8%) and two-party preferred margin. ^{[7] [8]}

Canada

In a Canadian federal election, a landslide victory occurs when a political party gains a significant majority of the House of Commons of Canada.

Landslide victories may also occur during provincial elections, and territorial elections in Yukon. Landslide victories are not possible for territorial elections in the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut, as its members are elected without reference to political parties, operating as a consensus government.

National landslide victories

The following Canadian federal elections resulted in landslide victories: ^[9]

• 1917 – The Conservatives, led by Robert Borden, won 153 seats (an increase of 21) and gained a majority of 14, while the Liberals, led by Wilfrid Laurier, won just 82 (a decrease of 3).
• 1935 – The Liberals, led by William Lyon Mackenzie King, won 171 seats (an increase of 34) and gained a majority of 50, while the Conservatives, led by R. B. Bennett, won just 39 (a decrease of 98).
• 1940 – The Liberals, led by William Lyon Mackenzie King, won 179 seats (an increase of 6) and gained a majority of 56 seats while the Progressive Conservatives, led by Robert James Manion, won just 39 (unchanged from their previous share).
• 1949 – The Liberals, led by Louis St. Laurent, won 191 seats (an increase of 73) and gained a majority of 59, while the Progressive Conservatives, led by George A. Drew, won just 41 (a decrease of 25).

A map of the vote by province in 1958 shows the scale of the Progressive Conservatives' landslide victory.

• 1958 – The Progressive Conservatives, led by John Diefenbaker, won 208 seats (an increase of 96) and gained a majority of 75, while the Liberals, led by Lester B. Pearson, won just 48 (a decrease of 57).
• 1968 – The Liberals, lead by Pierre Trudeau, won 155 seats (an increase of 26) and gained a majority of 21, while the Progressive Conservatives, lead by Robert Stanfield won just 72 (a decrease of 22).

A map of the vote by province in 1984 shows the scale of the Progressive Conservatives' landslide victory.

• 1984 – The Progressive Conservatives, led by Brian Mulroney, won 211 seats (an increase of 111) and gained a majority of 69, while the Liberals, led by John Turner, won just 40 (a decrease of 95). Mulroney is the only prime minister to have won a majority of seats in every single province.
• 1993 – The Liberals, led by Jean Chrétien, won 177 seats (an increase of 96) and gained a majority of 29, while the Bloc Québecois, led by Lucien Bouchard, which ran only in Quebec, won 54 (an increase of 54). The ruling Progressive Conservatives, led by Kim Campbell, won just 2 (a decrease of 154).
• 2011 – The Conservatives, led by Stephen Harper, won 166 seats (an increase of 23) and gained a majority of 11, while the NDP, led by Jack Layton, a perennial 3rd party finished second with 103 (an increase of 67). The Liberals, led by Michael Ignatieff, won just 34 (a decrease of 43).
• 2015 – The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, won 184 seats (an increase of 150) and gained a majority of 14, while the Conservatives, led by Stephen Harper, won just 99 (a decrease of 60).

Jamaica

• 2020 Jamaican general election – The Jamaica Labour Party led by Andrew Holness was re-elected after winning a supermajority in Parliament. ^[10]

New Zealand

Until 1993, New Zealand used the traditional first-past-the-post system as in the U.K. to determine representation in its Parliament. Thus, landslide elections at that time were defined in an identical fashion, i.e. where one party got an overwhelming majority of the seats. Since 1996, New Zealand has used the mixed member proportional system as in Germany, making landslides much less likely. ^[11]

First past the post

• 1893 election – The Liberals won 51 seats and 57.8% of the vote while the Conservatives won 13 seats and just 24.5% of the vote. ^[12]
• 1899 election – The Liberals won 49 seats and 52.7% of the vote while the Conservatives won 19 seats and just 36.6% of the vote. ^[12]
• 1905 election – The Liberals won 58 seats and 53.1% of the vote while the Conservatives won 16 seats and just 29.7% of the vote. ^[12]
• 1925 election – The Reform Party won 55 seats while the Labour & Liberal parties won just 23 seats combined. ^[12]
• 1935 election – The Labour Party won 53 seats while the Coalition won just 19 seats. ^[12]
• 1938 election – The Labour Party won 53 seats while the National Party won just 25 seats. ^[12]
• 1990 election – The National Party won 67 seats while the Labour Party won just 29 seats. ^[12]

Samoa

Results of the 2006 Samoan general election by constituency.

• 2006 – The Human Rights Protection Party, led by Tuilaʻepa Saʻilele Malielegaoi, won a landslide victory, winning 33 seats, an increase of ten. The main opposition party, the new Samoa Democratic United Party, won 10 seats. ^[13]
• 2016 – The Human Rights Protection Party, led by Tuilaʻepa Saʻilele Malielegaoi, won by a landslide victory, winning 35 of the 49 seats in the Legislative Assembly, gaining six seats. The main opposition party, the Tautua Samoa Party (led by Palusalue Faʻapo II) only won two seats, losing 11 seats. Independents won 13 seats. ^[14]

United Kingdom

In UK general elections, a landslide victory involves winning a large majority in parliament and often goes with a large swing from one party to another as well. Landslide victories have usually occurred after a long period of government from one particular party and a change in the popular mood. ^[15]

Large majorities, however, are not always the advantage they appear to be. Anthony Seldon gives a number of examples of the infighting that can arise from large majorities. He claims that a "sweet spot" parliamentary majority of 35-50 seats is enough to protect from by-elections and still comfortably pass legislation. ^[16]

Notable landslide election results

• 1906 – Henry Campbell-Bannerman led his Liberal Party to victory over Arthur Balfour's Conservative Party who lost more than half their seats, including his own seat in Manchester East, as a result of the large national swing to the Liberal Party (The 5.4% swing from the Conservatives to Liberals was at the time the highest ever achieved). The Liberal Party won 397 seats (an increase of 214) while the Conservative Party were left with 156 seats (a decrease of 246). ^{[17] [18]}

This map shows the Labour Party landslide victory in 1997.

• 1945 – Clement Attlee led the Labour Party to victory over Winston Churchill's Conservative Party, a 12.0% swing from the Conservatives to Labour. Labour won 393 seats (an increase of 239) while the Conservative Party were left with 197 (a decrease of 190). ^[19]
• 1997 – Tony Blair led the Labour Party to win a first landslide victory with 418 seats (an increase of 146) and gained an overall majority of 179 while the Conservative Party led by John Major won 165 seats (a decrease of 178). The swing from the Conservatives to Labour was 10.2% and was the second biggest general election victory of the 20th Century after 1931. ^[20]
• 2001 – Tony Blair led the Labour Party to win a second landslide victory with 412 seats (a decrease of 6) and retained an overall majority of 167 while the Conservative Party led by William Hague won 166 seats (an increase of 1), making Tony Blair the first Labour Prime Minister to serve two consecutive full terms in office. ^[21]

This map shows the Conservative Party landslide victory in 2019.

• 2019 – Boris Johnson led the Conservative Party to win a landslide victory (his second term in office) with 365 seats (an increase of 48, the party's highest seat count since 1987) and a majority of 80 seats, while the Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn won 202 seats (a decrease of 60, the party's worst result since 1935). The election led to 54 Labour seats changing to Conservative predominantly in the Midlands and Northern England – some of which had been held by Labour since the first half of the 20th century. ^[22]
• 2024 – Keir Starmer led the Labour Party to win a landslide victory with 411 seats (an increase of 211, the party's highest seat count since 2001) and a majority of 172 seats, while the Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak won 121 seats (a decrease of 251, the party's worst ever result, exceeding the previous worst defeat of 1906. ^[23] )

United States

A landslide victory in US Presidential elections occurs when a candidate has an overwhelming majority in the Electoral College.

• 1932 – Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) received 472 (88.9%) of the electoral votes while Herbert Hoover (R) received only 59 (11.1%).

The map of the Electoral College in 1936 shows the scale of Franklin D. Roosevelt's landslide victory.

• 1936 – Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) received 523 (98.5%) of the electoral votes—the largest share since 1820 and the largest in a non-unanimous election—while Alf Landon (R) received only 8 (1.5%). Additionally, Roosevelt received 60.8% of the popular vote.
• 1940 – Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) received 449 (84.6%) of the electoral votes while Wendell Willkie (R) received only 82 (15.4%).
• 1944 – Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) received 432 (81.4%) of the electoral votes while Thomas E. Dewey (R) received only 99 (18.6%).
• 1952 – Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) received 442 (83.2%) of the electoral votes while Adlai Stevenson II (D) received only 89 (16.8%).
• 1956 – Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) received 457 (86.1%) of the electoral votes while Adlai Stevenson II (D) received only 73 (13.7%).
• 1964 – Lyndon B. Johnson (D) received 486 (90.3%) of the electoral votes while Barry Goldwater (R) received only 52 (9.7%). Additionally, Johnson received 61.1% of the popular vote.

The map of the Electoral College in 1972 shows the scale of Richard Nixon's landslide victory.

• 1972 – Richard Nixon (R) received 520 (96.7%) of the electoral votes while George McGovern (D) received only 17 (3.2%). One Republican elector voted for John Hospers of the Libertarian Party. Additionally, Nixon received 60.7% of the popular vote.
• 1980 – Ronald Reagan (R) received 489 (90.9%) of the electoral votes while Jimmy Carter (D) received only 49 (9.1%).

The map of the Electoral College in 1984 shows the scale of Ronald Reagan's landslide victory.

• 1984 – Ronald Reagan (R) received 525 (97.6%) of the electoral votes while Walter Mondale (D) received only 13 (2.4%). Additionally, Reagan received 58.8% of the popular vote.
• 1988 – George H. W. Bush (R) received 426 (79.2%) of the electoral votes while Michael Dukakis (D) received only 111 (20.8%).

See also

• Wipeout (elections)
• Realigning election
• Wave elections in the United States
• Blowout (sports)
• Landslide (board game)
• Paper candidate

References

1. Murse, Tom (8 October 2020). "Landslide Victory: Definition in Elections". ThoughtCo. Retrieved 18 October 2020.
2. Multiple sources:
   • "Landslide". Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary . Merriam-Webster. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
   • "Landslide". Cambridge Dictionaries (Online). Cambridge University Press. n.d. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
   • "Landslide". Collins English Dictionary . HarperCollins . Retrieved 7 November 2024.
3. James H Fowler; Oleg Smirnov (2009), Mandates, Parties, and Voters: How Elections Shape the Future, p. 15
4. Jason D. Mycoff; Joseph August Pika (2008), Confrontation and Compromise: Presidential and Congressional Leadership, 2001-2006, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, p. 11
5. "Newman wins Brisbane election landslide". ABC News. 15 March 2008.
6. "The Mayor that was re-elected in a landslide, collecting 85 per cent of the votes". 20 October 2021.
7. "Biggest State Election Landslides". Armarium Interreta. 12 March 2021. Archived from the original on 12 March 2021. Retrieved 7 April 2021.
8. "Mark McGowan claims WA election victory as Liberals all but wiped out". The New Daily. 14 March 2021.
9. "Party Standings in the House of Commons (1867-date)". PARLINFO. Library of Parliament. 24 March 2016. Retrieved 5 April 2016.
10. "Political Tsunami turns Jamaica green with massive JLP victory" . Retrieved 20 November 2020.
11. Electoral Commission (17 July 2014). Mixed Member Proportional Representation in New Zealand (Video). Wellington.
12. "1890–1993 general elections". Electoral Commission New Zealand. Archived from the original on 8 April 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
13. "Elections in 2006". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 17 March 2022. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
14. "Legislative Assembly (Fono)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 1 September 2022. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
15. Multiple sources:
    • Bush, Stephen (8 June 2021). "Despite all reports, the election wasn't a landslide – and Johnson may be about to discover that reality". New Statesman. Retrieved 19 December 2022.
    • "Election results 2019: Boris Johnson returns to power with big majority". BBC News. 12 December 2019. Retrieved 19 December 2022.
    • Holder, Josh; Voce, Antonio; Barr, Caelainn; Holder, Josh; Voce, Antonio; Barr, Caelainn. "How did Boris Johnson achieve his landslide victory? A visual guide". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 19 December 2022.
    • "Inside the landslide: Thatcher's personal papers for 1983 opened to the public". University of Cambridge. 10 October 2013. Retrieved 19 December 2022.
16. Seldon, Anthony (8 June 2017). "Politicians dream of landslide victories – but they are a curse, not a blessing". The Guardian.
17. "1906: The Liberal landslide". bbc.co.uk. 9 February 2006.
18. Liberal Landslide: The General Election of 1906.
19. Labour Landslide, July 5-19, 1945.
20. Labour's Landslide: The British General Election 1997.
21. "The rise and fall of New Labour". BBC News. 3 August 2010. Retrieved 30 December 2021.
22. "Boris Johnson must fulfil his One Nation pledge". Financial Times. 13 December 2019. Retrieved 14 December 2019.
23. "UK election results 2024". BBC. 6 July 2024. Retrieved 6 July 2024.