1996 Australian federal election

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1996 Australian federal election
Flag of Australia (converted).svg
  1993 2 March 1996 (1996-03-02) 1998  

All 148 seats in the House of Representatives
75 seats were needed for a majority in the House
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Registered11,740,568 Increase2.svg 3.13%
Turnout11,244,017 (95.77%)
(Increase2.svg0.02 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
  John howard b.jpg Keating Paul BANNER b.jpg
IND
Leader John Howard Paul Keating N/A
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Independents
Leader since 30 January 1995 (1995-01-30) 19 December 1991 (1991-12-19) N/A
Leader's seat Bennelong (NSW) Blaxland (NSW)N/A
Last election65 seats80 seats2 seats
Seats won94 seats49 seats5 seats
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 29Decrease2.svg 31Increase2.svg 3
First preference  vote5,142,1614,217,765262,420
Percentage47.25%38.75%2.41%
SwingIncrease2.svg 2.98%Decrease2.svg 6.17%Decrease2.svg 0.73
TPP 53.63%46.37%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg 5.07Decrease2.svg 5.07

1996 Australian federal election.svg
Results by division for the House of Representatives, shaded by winning party's margin of victory.

Prime Minister before election

Paul Keating
Labor

Subsequent Prime Minister

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

The 1996 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 38th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 2 March 1996. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seat Senate were up for election. The Liberal/National Coalition led by Opposition Leader John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the incumbent Australian Labor Party government led by Prime Minister Paul Keating in a landslide victory. The Coalition won 94 seats in the House of Representatives, which is the largest number of seats held by a federal government to date, and only the second time a party had won over 90 seats at a federal election.

Contents

The election marked the end of the five-term, 13-year Hawke-Keating Government that began in 1983. Howard was sworn in as the new prime minister of Australia on 11 March 1996, along with the First Howard Ministry. This election was the start of the 11-year Howard Government; the Labor party would spend this period in opposition and would not return to government until the 2007 election.

This was the first federal election that future prime minister Tony Abbott contested as a member of parliament, having entered parliament at the 1994 Warringah by-election. Future prime minister Anthony Albanese and future opposition leader Brendan Nelson also entered parliament at this election.

Future prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard were unsuccessful candidates for the House of Representatives and Senate respectively at this election and would eventually be elected to the House of Representatives at the next election in 1998.

Howard became the first Liberal leader to win an election from opposition since Robert Menzies in 1949. (Malcolm Fraser was caretaker prime minister in the 1975 election.) The victory also saw the Liberal Party gain enough seats to not require the support of the National Party, though John Howard opted to stay in the Coalition. As of 2023 this is the last time the Liberal Party has won an overall majority of seats in federal parliament and also the last when both major party leaders born prior to 1946, the first year of the Post-war era.

Background

John Howard, who had previously led the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1989, returned to the leadership in January 1995 following the party's disastrous eight months under the leadership of Alexander Downer. Downer and deputy PM Peter Costello had succeeded John Hewson and Michael Wooldridge early in 1994 and were touted as the leaders of the new-generation Liberals. In the end, the party opted for the seasoned Howard, perhaps an acknowledgment that he was the only one left standing after a decade of party infighting.

Campaign

Howard approached the campaign with a determination to present as small a target as possible. Throughout 1995 he refused to detail specific policy proposals, focusing the Coalition's attacks mainly on the longevity and governing record of the Labor government. By 1996, however, it was clear that the electorate had tired of Labor and in particular of Paul Keating. The line "The recession we had to have" resonated with deadly force throughout the electorate. Although Keating's big-picture approach to republicanism, reconciliation with Australia's Indigenous peoples and engagement with Asia galvanised support within Labor's urban constituencies, Howard was able to attract support amongst disaffected mainstream Australians, uniting middle-class suburban residents with traditionally Labor-voting blue-collar workers. He also promised to retain Medicare and hold a constitutional convention to decide whether Australia would become a republic.

The election-eve Newspoll reported the Liberal/National Coalition held an estimated 53.5 percent two-party-preferred vote. [1]

On election day, the news was dominated by the Ralph Willis letter. Treasurer Ralph Willis had released a letter purporting to be secret correspondence between Howard and Liberal Premier of Victoria, Jeff Kennett. Howard quickly denounced the letter as a forgery and claims of Labor skulduggery dominated the last day, drowning out anything Keating said. The letter was subsequently revealed to be the work of university students. Left-wing writer Bob Ellis claimed that the Ralph Willis letter was the cause of Keating's crushing defeat.

Results

House of Representatives results

Government (94)
Coalition

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Liberal (75)

National (18)

CLP (1)

Opposition (49)

Labor (49)

Crossbench (5)

Independent (5) Australian House of Representatives elected members, 1996.svg
Government (94)
Coalition
  Liberal (75)
  National (18)
  CLP (1)

Opposition (49)
  Labor (49)

Crossbench (5)
  Independent (5)
House of Reps (IRV) – 1996–1998 – Turnout 94.99% (CV) — Informal 3.78%
1996 Australian House.svg
PartyVotes %SwingSeatsChange
   Liberal 4,210,68938.69+1.9275Increase2.svg 26
  National 893,1708.21+1.0418Increase2.svg 2
  Country Liberal 38,3020.35+0.021Increase2.svg 1
Liberal/National Coalition 5,142,16147.25+2.9894Increase2.svg 29
  Labor 4,217,76538.75−6.1749Decrease2.svg 31
  Democrats 735,8486.76+3.01
  Greens [a] 317,6542.92+1.09
  Independents 262,4202.41−0.735Increase2.svg 3
Others208,0041.91+1.05
 Total10,883,852  148Increase2.svg 1
Two-party-preferred vote
  Liberal–National coalition Win53.63+5.0794Increase2.svg 29
  Labor  46.37−5.0749Decrease2.svg 31
Popular vote
Labor
38.75%
Liberal
38.69%
National
8.21%
Democrats
6.76%
Greens
1.74%
CLP
0.35%
Independents
2.27%
Other
3.23%
Two-party-preferred vote
Coalition
53.63%
Labor
46.37%
Parliament seats
Coalition
63.51%
Labor
33.11%
Independents
3.38%

Senate results

Government (37)
Coalition

Liberal (31)

National (5)

CLP (1)

Opposition (29)

Labor (29)

Crossbench (10)

Democrats (7)

Greens (2)

Independent (1) Australian Senate elected members, 1996.svg
Government (37)
Coalition
  Liberal (31)
  National (5)
  CLP (1)

Opposition (29)
  Labor (29)

Crossbench (10)
  Democrats (7)
  Greens (2)
  Independent (1)
Senate (STV GV) — 1996–99 – Turnout 95.20% (CV) — Informal 3.89%
1996 Australian Senate.svg
PartyVotes %SwingSeats wonSeats heldChange
  Liberal–National joint ticket2,669,37724.49+0.096N/A
  Liberal 1,770,48616.24+0.651231Increase2.svg2
  National 312,7692.87+0.1515Decrease2.svg 1
  Country Liberal 40,0500.37+0.0411Steady2.svg
Liberal–National coalition 4,792,68243.97+0.922037Increase2.svg 1
  Labor 3,940,15036.15−7.351429Decrease2.svg 1
  Democrats 1,179,35710.82+5.5157Steady2.svg
  Greens [b] 345,5133.17+0.6712Steady2.svg
 Others [c] 641,3355.8801Steady2.svg
Total10,899,037  4076
Invalid/blank votes395,4423.5
Turnout11,294,47996.2
Registered voters11,740,568
Source: Federal Elections 1996

House of Reps preference flows

Seats changing hands

SeatPre-1996SwingPost-1996
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bass, Tas  Labor Silvia Smith 0.034.604.57 Warwick Smith Liberal 
Bowman, Qld  Labor Con Sciacca 8.149.030.89 Andrea West Liberal 
Calare, NSW  Labor David Simmons N/AN/A13.32 Peter Andren Independent 
Canberra, ACT [d]   Labor Ros Kelly 9.562.047.52 Bob McMullan Labor  
  Liberal Brendan Smyth [e] 6.5814.1
Canning, WA  Labor George Gear 0.190.880.69 Ricky Johnston Liberal 
Capricornia, Qld  Labor Marjorie Henzell 2.786.403.62 Paul Marek National 
Curtin, WA  Liberal Allan Rocher N/AN/A7.28 Allan Rocher Independent 
Dickson, Qld  Labor Michael Lavarch 2.555.723.17 Tony Smith Liberal 
Eden-Monaro, NSW  Labor Jim Snow 4.279.034.76 Gary Nairn Liberal 
Gilmore, NSW  Labor Peter Knott 0.456.696.24 Joanna Gash Liberal 
Griffith, Qld  Labor Ben Humphreys 5.907.371.47 Graeme McDougall Liberal 
Herbert, Qld  Labor Ted Lindsay 3.319.906.59 Peter Lindsay Liberal 
Hughes, NSW  Labor Robert Tickner 6.4211.314.89 Danna Vale Liberal 
Kalgoorlie, WA  Labor Graeme Campbell N/AN/A10.35 Graeme Campbell Independent 
Kingston, SA  Labor Gordon Bilney 1.453.462.01 Susan Jeanes Liberal 
Leichhardt, Qld  Labor Peter Dodd 1.335.514.18 Warren Entsch Liberal 
Lilley, Qld  Labor Wayne Swan 6.186.910.73 Elizabeth Grace Liberal 
Lindsay, NSW  Labor Ross Free 10.2211.801.58 Jackie Kelly [2] Liberal 
Lowe, NSW  Labor Mary Easson 5.017.482.47 Paul Zammit Liberal 
Macarthur, NSW  Labor Chris Haviland 1.2811.9710.69 John Fahey Liberal 
Macquarie, NSW  Labor Maggie Deahm 0.126.486.36 Kerry Bartlett Liberal 
Makin, SA  Labor Peter Duncan 3.714.791.08 Trish Draper Liberal 
McEwen, Vic  Labor Peter Cleeland 0.691.502.19 Fran Bailey Liberal 
McMillan, Vic  Labor Barry Cunningham 0.532.602.07 Russell Broadbent Liberal 
Moore, WA  Liberal Paul Filing N/AN/A15.48 Paul Filing Independent 
Moreton, Qld  Labor Garrie Gibson 0.215.305.09 Gary Hardgrave Liberal 
Murray, Vic  National Bruce Lloyd N/AN/A3.70* Sharman Stone Liberal 
North Sydney, NSW  Independent Ted Mack 1.817.415.6 Joe Hockey Liberal 
Northern Territory, NT  Labor Warren Snowdon 5.315.680.37 Nick Dondas Country Liberal 
Oxley, Qld  Labor Les Scott 14.6519.31**4.66 Pauline Hanson Independent 
Page, NSW  Labor Harry Woods 0.134.444.31 Ian Causley National 
Parramatta, NSW  Labor Paul Elliott 3.247.113.87 Ross Cameron Liberal 
Paterson, NSW  Labor Bob Horne 3.303.730.43 Bob Baldwin Liberal 
Petrie, Qld  Labor Gary Johns 2.159.857.70 Teresa Gambaro Liberal 
Richmond, NSW  Labor Neville Newell 1.788.536.75 Larry Anthony National 
Robertson, NSW  Labor Frank Walker 5.569.123.56 Jim Lloyd Liberal 
Swan, WA  Labor Kim Beazley 0.223.933.71 Don Randall Liberal 
Wills, Vic  Independent Phil Cleary n/a4.37n/a Kelvin Thomson Labor 

Analysis

Overall the coalition won 29 seats from Labor while the ALP won 4 seats from the Liberals. These 4 seats were Canberra and Namadgi in the ACT and Isaacs and Bruce in Victoria. The ACT seats, which had been won by the Liberals in a by-election, fell to Labor due to a strong return to the ALP in a traditional Labor town by public servants fearing conservative cuts. The division of Brendan Smyth's seat of Canberra into the two new (of the three) ACT seats limited his campaign to the southernmost Tuggeranong seat of Namadgi where the ACT Labor right wing stood former MLA Annette Ellis who ran a tight grassroots campaign. Isaacs and Bruce fell to Labor due to demographic changes due to a redistribution of electoral boundaries.

The Gallagher Index result: 11.14 1996 Election Australia Gallagher Index.png
The Gallagher Index result: 11.14

Labor lost five percent of its two-party vote from 1993, and tallied its lowest primary vote since 1934 (an additional eight percent coming from preferences). The swing against Labor would not normally have been enough in and of itself enough to cause a change of government. However, Labor lost 13 of its 33 seats in New South Wales, and all but two of its 13 seats in Queensland. The 29-seat swing was the second-largest defeat, in terms of seats lost, by a sitting government in Australia. Three members of Keating's government – including Attorney-General Michael Lavarch – lost their seats. Keating resigned as Labor leader on the night of the election, and was succeeded by former deputy prime minister and Finance Minister Kim Beazley.

Due in part to this large swing, Howard entered office with a 45-seat majority, the second-largest in Australian history (behind only the 55-seat majority won by Malcolm Fraser in 1975). The Liberals actually won a majority in their own right at this election with 75 seats, the most the party had ever won. Although Howard had no need for the support of the Nationals, the Coalition was retained. As of 2022, this was the last time the Liberals have won a majority in their own right at a federal election.

Exit polling showed the Coalition winning 47 percent of the blue-collar vote, compared with Labor's 39 percent; there was a 16-point drop in Labor's vote among members of trade unions. The Coalition won 48 percent of the Catholic vote and Labor 37 percent, a reversal of the usual figures. [3]

See also

Notes

  1. The Australian Greens were founded in 1992, but not all local organisations immediately affiliated. The Greens total includes Australian Greens, Greens Western Australia, Victorian Greens, Tasmanian Greens, Central Coast Green Party, and Richmond/Clarence Greens.
  2. Includes votes for the federal Australian Greens (261,677) as well as Greens Western Australia (57,006) and the Tasmanian Greens (26,830), which had not yet aligned with the federal party.
  3. The independent senator was Brian Harradine (Tasmania).
  4. Ros Kelly (Labor) had won Canberra at the 1993 election, however she resigned in 1995 and Brendan Smyth (Liberal) won the seat at the resulting by-election.
  5. Brendan Smyth (Liberal) had won Canberra at the 1995 by-election, however he contested the new seat of Namadgi.

References

  1. "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.
  2. Kelly conceded that she was incapable of being chosen as a member of the House of Representatives while serving as an officer of the RAAF and won the subsequent by-election with an increased margin: Holland, I (2004). "Section 44 of the Constitution". Parliamentary Library of Australia.
  3. John Stone (15 March 1996). "Remember, it was Paul Keating". The Australian Financial Review .