1998 Australian federal election

Last updated

1998 Australian federal election
Flag of Australia (converted).svg
  1996 3 October 1998 (1998-10-03) 2001  

All 148 seats in the House of Representatives
75 seats were needed for a majority in the House
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
 First partySecond party
  John howard.jpg Kim Beazley crop.jpg
Leader John Howard Kim Beazley
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 30 January 1995 (1995-01-30) 19 March 1996 (1996-03-19)
Leader's seat Bennelong (NSW) Brand (WA)
Last election94 seats49 seats
Seats won80 seats67 seats
Seat changeDecrease2.svg14Increase2.svg18
Popular vote5,413,4315,630,409
Percentage49.02%50.98%
SwingDecrease2.svg4.61Increase2.svg4.61

Australia 1998 federal election.png
Popular vote by state and territory with graphs indicating the number of seats won. As this is an IRV election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote by state or territory but instead via results in each electorate.

Prime Minister before election

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

Subsequent Prime Minister

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

The 1998 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley despite losing the two party preferred popular vote.

Contents

Future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard entered parliament at this election.

Results

House of Representatives results

Government (80)
Coalition
Liberal (64)
National (16)

Opposition (67)
Labor (67)

Crossbench (1)
Independent (1) Australian House of Representatives elected members, 1998.svg
Government (80)
Coalition
     Liberal (64)
     National (16)

Opposition (67)
     Labor (67)

Crossbench (1)
     Independent (1)
    House of Reps (IRV) – 1998–2001 – Turnout 94.99% (CV) — Informal 3.78%
    PartyVotes%SwingSeatsChange
      Labor 4,454,30640.10+1.3567+18
      Liberal–National coalition 4,388,80939.51–7.7480–14
      Liberal  3,764,70733.89−4.8064−11
      National  588,0885.29−2.9116−2
      Country Liberal  36,0140.32−0.030−1
      One Nation 936,6218.43+8.4300
      Democrats 569,8755.13−1.6300
      Greens 290,7092.62−0.3000
      Unity 87,2790.79+0.7900
      Christian Democrats 64,9160.58+0.1800
      Australia First 28,0690.25+0.2500
      Natural Law 18,4250.17−0.2100
      Shooters 12,6750.11+0.1100
      Democratic Socialist 8,4460.08+0.0800
      Citizens Electoral Council 8,2950.07+0.0700
      Progressive Labour 6,1220.06+0.0600
      No Aircraft Noise 5,2980.05–0.1200
      Tasmania First 4,5510.04+0.0400
      Reform 4,2210.04+0.0400
      Abolish Child Support 2,3120.02+0.0200
      Women's 1,4260.01–0.0500
      Socialist Equality 5310.00+0.0000
      Independent EFF 5130.00+0.0000
      Republican 4030.00+0.0000
      Independents 215,2011.94–0.471−4
     Total11,109,063  148 
    Two-party-preferred vote
      Liberal–National coalition WIN49.02−4.6180−14
      Labor  50.98+4.6167+18
    Popular Vote
    Labor
    40.10%
    Liberal
    33.89%
    One Nation
    8.43%
    National
    5.29%
    Democrats
    5.13%
    Greens
    2.14%
    CLP
    0.32%
    Independents
    1.76%
    Other
    2.94%
    Two-party-preferred vote
    Labor
    50.98%
    Coalition
    49.02%
    Parliament Seats
    Coalition
    54.05%
    Labor
    45.27%
    Independents
    0.68%

    Senate results

    Government (35)
Coalition
Liberal (31)
National (3)
CLP (1)

Opposition (29)
Labor (29)

Crossbench (12)
Democrats (9)
Greens (1)
One Nation (1)
Independent (1) Australian Senate elected members, 1998.svg
    Government (35)
    Coalition
         Liberal (31)
         National (3)
         CLP (1)

    Opposition (29)
         Labor (29)

    Crossbench (12)
         Democrats (9)
         Greens (1)
         One Nation (1)
         Independent (1)
      Senate (STV GV) — 1999–2002—Turnout 95.34% (CV) — Informal 3.24%
      PartyVotes%SwingSeats WonSeats Held
        Australian Labor Party 4,182,96337.31+1.161729
       Liberal/National (Joint Ticket)2,452,40721.872.625 
        Liberal Party of Australia 1,528,73013.632.611131
        One Nation 1,007,4398.99*11
        Australian Democrats 947,9408.452.3749
        Australian Greens 244,1652.170.2301
        National Party of Australia 208,5361.861.0103
        Christian Democratic Party 122,5161.09+0.0100
        Unity Party 93,9680.83*00
        Greens Western Australia 61,0630.54+0.0200
        Australia First Party 46,7650.41*00
        Australian Shooters Party 38,1880.340.7100
        Country Liberal Party 36,0630.320.0511
        Democratic Labor Party 29,8930.270.0600
        Harradine Group 24,2540.220.0811
        Democratic Socialist Electoral League 24,1580.22*00
        Australian Women's Party 20,4950.180.2700
        Abolish Child Support/Family Court Party 15,2760.14*00
        Queensland First 11,5540.10*00
        Natural Law Party 11,1520.100.0600
        Nuclear Disarmament Party 9,6850.09*00
        Citizens Electoral Council 9,4030.08*00
        Reclaim Australia: Reduce Immigration 8,0190.070.3400
        One Australia Party 7,5720.070.3400
       Other58,5770.5≤000
       Total11,211,903  4076

      House of Representatives preference flows

      Seats changing hands

      SeatPre-1998SwingPost-1998
      PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
      Bass, Tas  LiberalHon Warwick Smith 4.574.630.06 Michelle O'Byrne Labor 
      Bendigo, Vic  Liberal Bruce Reid 0.884.353.47 Steve Gibbons Labor 
      Bowman, Qld  Liberal Andrea West 0.894.183.29Hon Con Sciacca Labor 
      Braddon, Tas  LiberalHon Chris Miles 5.6910.024.33 Sid Sidebottom Labor 
      Canning, WA  Liberal Ricky Johnston 1.645.163.52 Jane Gerick Labor 
      Capricornia, Qld  National Paul Marek 3.468.755.29 Kirsten Livermore Labor 
      Chisholm, Vic  Liberal Michael Wooldridge 2.604.672.07 Anna Burke Labor 
      Cowan, WA  Liberal Richard Evans 4.067.623.56 Graham Edwards Labor 
      Curtin, WA  Independent Allan Rocher 7.28N/A**13.28 Julie Bishop Liberal 
      Dickson, Qld  Liberal Tony Smith*3.904.020.12 Cheryl Kernot Labor 
      Griffith, Qld  Liberal Graeme McDougall 1.503.932.43 Kevin Rudd Labor 
      Hume, NSW  National John Sharp 4.353.718.06 Alby Schultz Liberal 
      Kingston, SA  Liberal Susan Jeanes 2.012.480.47 David Cox Labor 
      Kalgoorlie, WA  Independent Graeme Campbell 10.35N/A**2.10 Barry Haase Liberal 
      Lilley, Qld  Liberal Elizabeth Grace 0.803.933.13 Wayne Swan Labor 
      Lowe, NSW  Liberal Paul Zammit*2.467.094.63 John Murphy Labor 
      McMillan, Vic  Liberal Russell Broadbent 2.072.640.57 Christian Zahra Labor 
      Moore, WA  Independent Paul Filing 13.28N/A**4.13 Mal Washer Liberal 
      Northern Territory, NT  Country Liberal Nick Dondas 0.370.940.57 Warren Snowdon Labor 
      Oxley, Qld  One Nation Pauline Hanson*0.357.858.20 Bernie Ripoll Labor 
      Paterson, NSW  Liberal Bob Baldwin 0.431.651.22 Bob Horne Labor 
      Stirling, WA  Liberal Eoin Cameron 3.224.261.04 Jann McFarlane Labor 
      Swan, WA  Liberal Don Randall 3.636.332.70 Kim Wilkie Labor 

      Background

      The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate.

      Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937.

      The Gallagher Index result: 11.33 1998 Election Australia Gallagher Index.png
      The Gallagher Index result: 11.33

      The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five-week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts.

      In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences. [1] The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris.

      The election-eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. [2]

      On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming Prime Minister.

      See also

      Notes

      1. "The AEC has recently restructured our content". Aec.gov.au. 8 June 2007. Retrieved 13 June 2010.
      2. "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.

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      References