1998 Australian federal election

Last updated

1998 Australian federal election
Flag of Australia (converted).svg
  1996 3 October 1998 (1998-10-03) [a] 2001  

All 148 seats in the House of Representatives
75 seats were needed for a majority in the House
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Registered12,154,050 Increase2.svg 3.52%
Turnout11,545,201 (94.99%)
(Decrease2.svg0.78 pp)
 First partySecond party
  Howard John BANNER b.jpg Kim Beazley crop.jpg
Leader John Howard Kim Beazley
Party Liberal–National Coalition Labor
Leader since 30 January 1995 (1995-01-30) 19 March 1996 (1996-03-19)
Leader's seat Bennelong (NSW) Brand (WA)
Last election94 seats49 seats
Seats before9449
Seats won8067
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 14Increase2.svg 18
Primary  vote4,388,8094,454,306
Percentage39.51%40.10%
SwingDecrease2.svg 7.73%Increase2.svg 1.34%
TPP 49.02%50.98%
TPP swingDecrease2.svg 4.61Increase2.svg 4.61

1998 Australian federal election.svg
Results by division for the House of Representatives, shaded by winning party's margin of victory.

Prime Minister before election

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

Subsequent Prime Minister

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

The 1998 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76 seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley, despite losing the nationwide popular and two-party preferred vote. However, the Australian Labor Party gained seats compared to the previous election.

Contents

Entering parliament at this election were future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, future Liberal deputy leader and future Minister of Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, future Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan and future Speaker Anna Burke.

Background

The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate.

Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937.

The Gallagher Index result was 11.33. 1998 Election Australia Gallagher Index.png
The Gallagher Index result was 11.33.

The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five-week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts. This election was not the first to be centred on a GST the 1993 election saw the Keating Labor government re-elected after a proposal by then Opposition leader John Hewson to introduce a 15% GST. [1]

In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences. [2] The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris.

The election-eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. [3]

On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming prime minister. The uneven nature of the swing saw Labor getting huge swings in seats that they held prior to the election but not enough in seats needed to gain government. [4]

The election for the division of Newcastle was deferred as the Democrats candidate died on 1 October, two days before the federal election. A supplementary election was held on 21 November, with Labor winning and holding the seat. [5] [6]

Results

House of Representatives results

Government (80)
Coalition

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Liberal (64)

National (16)

Opposition (67)

Labor (67)

Crossbench (1)

Independent (1) Australian House of Representatives elected members, 1998.svg
Government (80)
Coalition
  Liberal (64)
  National (16)

Opposition (67)
  Labor (67)

Crossbench (1)
  Independent (1)
House of Reps (IRV) – 1998–2001 – Turnout 94.99% (CV) — Informal 3.78% [7]
1998 Australian House.svg
PartyVotes%SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 4,454,30640.10+1.3467Increase2.svg 18
   Liberal 3,764,70733.894.8064Decrease2.svg 11
  National 588,0885.292.9116Decrease2.svg 3
  Country Liberal 36,0140.320.030Decrease2.svg 1
Liberal/National Coalition 4,388,80939.51-7.7480Decrease2.svg 14
  One Nation 936,6218.43*
  Democrats 569,8755.131.63
  Greens [b] 290,7092.620.30
  Independents [c] 195,1801.760.511Decrease2.svg 4
 Others273,5032.46
Total11,109,063  148 
Two-party-preferred vote
  Liberal/National coalition 5,413,43149.024.6180Decrease2.svg 14
  Labor 5,630,40950.98+4.6167Increase2.svg 18
Invalid/blank votes436,1383.78
Turnout11,545,20195.0
Registered voters12,154,050
Source: Federal Elections 1998
Popular vote
Labor
40.10%
Liberal
33.89%
One Nation
8.43%
National
5.29%
Democrats
5.13%
Greens
2.14%
CLP
0.32%
Independents
1.76%
Other
2.94%
Two-party-preferred vote
Labor
50.98%
Coalition
49.02%
Parliament seats
Coalition
54.05%
Labor
45.27%
Independents
0.68%

Senate results

Government (35)
Coalition

Liberal (31)

National (3)

CLP (1)

Opposition (29)

Labor (29)

Crossbench (12)

Democrats (9)

Greens (1)

One Nation (1)

Independent (1) Australian Senate elected members, 1998.svg
Government (35)
Coalition
  Liberal (31)
  National (3)
  CLP (1)

Opposition (29)
  Labor (29)

Crossbench (12)
  Democrats (9)
  Greens (1)
  One Nation (1)
  Independent (1)
Senate (STV GV) — 1999–2002—Turnout 95.34% (CV) — Informal 3.24%
1998 Australian Senate.svg
PartyVotes %SwingSeats
won
SeatsChange
  Labor 4,182,96337.31+1.161729Steady2.svg
  Liberal/National (Joint Ticket)2,452,40721.872.625 
  Liberal 1,528,73013.632.611131Steady2.svg
  National 208,5361.861.0103Decrease2.svg 2
  Country Liberal 36,0630.320.0511Steady2.svg
Liberal–National coalition 4,225,67337.706.271735Decrease2.svg 2
  One Nation 1,007,4398.99*11Increase2.svg 1
  Democrats 947,9408.452.3749Increase2.svg 2
  Greens 305,0582.720.4501Decrease2.svg 1
  Harradine Group 24,2540.220.0811Steady2.svg
Others507,2214.5
Total11,211,903  4076
Invalid/blank votes375,1813.2
Turnout11,584,90995.3
Registered voters12,154,050
Source: AEC Election 2001

House of Representatives preference flows

Seats changing hands

SeatPre-1998SwingPost-1998
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bass, Tas  Liberal Warwick Smith 4.574.630.06 Michelle O'Byrne Labor 
Bendigo, Vic  Liberal Bruce Reid 0.884.353.47 Steve Gibbons Labor 
Bowman, Qld  Liberal Andrea West 0.894.183.29 Con Sciacca Labor 
Braddon, Tas  Liberal Chris Miles 5.6910.024.33 Sid Sidebottom Labor 
Canning, WA  Liberal Ricky Johnston 1.645.163.52 Jane Gerick Labor 
Capricornia, Qld  National Paul Marek 3.468.755.29 Kirsten Livermore Labor 
Chisholm, Vic  Liberal Michael Wooldridge 2.604.672.07 Anna Burke Labor 
Cowan, WA  Liberal Richard Evans 4.067.623.56 Graham Edwards Labor 
Curtin, WA  Independent Allan Rocher 7.28N/A [d] 13.28 Julie Bishop Liberal 
Dickson, Qld  Liberal Tony Smith [e] 3.904.020.12 Cheryl Kernot Labor 
Griffith, Qld  Liberal Graeme McDougall 1.503.932.43 Kevin Rudd Labor 
Hume, NSW  National John Sharp 4.353.718.06 Alby Schultz Liberal 
Kalgoorlie, WA  Independent Graeme Campbell 10.35N/A [d] 2.10 Barry Haase Liberal 
Kingston, SA  Liberal Susan Jeanes 2.012.480.47 David Cox Labor 
Lilley, Qld  Liberal Elizabeth Grace 0.803.933.13 Wayne Swan Labor 
Lowe, NSW  Liberal Paul Zammit [f] 2.467.094.63 John Murphy Labor 
McMillan, Vic  Liberal Russell Broadbent 2.072.640.57 Christian Zahra Labor 
Moore, WA  Independent Paul Filing 13.28N/A [d] 4.13 Mal Washer Liberal 
Northern Territory, NT  Country Liberal Nick Dondas 0.370.940.57 Warren Snowdon Labor 
Paterson, NSW  Liberal Bob Baldwin 0.431.651.22 Bob Horne Labor 
Stirling, WA  Liberal Eoin Cameron 3.224.261.04 Jann McFarlane Labor 
Swan, WA  Liberal Don Randall 3.636.332.70 Kim Wilkie Labor 

See also

Notes

  1. The election in the seat of Newcastle was deferred to 21 November 1998.
  2. Australian Greens includes Greens Western Australia.
  3. Pauline Hanson has been counted as an independent for the 1996 election. She had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper.
  4. 1 2 3 Allan Rocher, Graeme Campbell and Paul Filing were not in the final two candidates for their seats; the second figures are against Labor.
  5. Tony Smith contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Labor.
  6. Paul Zammit contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Liberal.

References

  1. "What are the main issues?". The Riverine Herald . No. 29, 177. Victoria, Australia. 23 September 1998. p. 2. Retrieved 28 August 2024 via Trove.
  2. Newman, G; Kopras, A (4 November 1996). "Federal Elections 1996" (PDF). Background Paper 6 1996-97. Parliamentary Research Service. ISSN   1037-2938 . Retrieved 10 January 2022.
  3. "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.
  4. Antony Green (4 February 2016). "How Many Seats Did John Howard Lose at the 1998 GST Election?". Australia: ABC News. Retrieved 4 October 2021.
  5. "1998 House of Representatives: NSW". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 11 June 2022.
  6. "Newcastle 1998 supplementary election". Australian Electoral Commission. 19 January 2011. Retrieved 17 January 2023.
  7. "1998 House of Representatives". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 10 June 2022.