Next Australian federal election

Last updated

Next Australian federal election
Flag of Australia (converted).svg
  2019 On or before 21 May 2022 (half-Senate)
On or before 3 September 2022 (House of Representatives)

All 151 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats are needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Opinion polls
  Scott Morrison 2019 (crop).jpg Anthony Albanese in Hobart (December 2020) JOSH AGNEW (crop 2).jpg Adam Bandt portrait (2020) (cropped).jpg
Leader Scott Morrison Anthony Albanese Adam Bandt
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Greens
Leader since 24 August 2018 (2018-08-24) 30 May 2019 (2019-05-30) 4 February 2020 (2020-02-04)
Leader's seat Cook (NSW) Grayndler (NSW) Melbourne (Vic.)
Last election77 seats, 41.44%68 seats, 33.34%1 seat, 10.40%
Current seats76 seats68 seats1 seat
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg8Increase2.svg75
2019 TPP 51.53%48.47%

  Craig Kelly MP.jpeg Robbie Katter with hat at lookout (crop).jpg
CA
Leader Craig Kelly Robbie Katter No federal leader
Party United Australia Katter's Australian Centre Alliance
Leader since23 August 2021 (2021-08-23)3 February 2020 (2020-02-03)
Leader's seat Hughes (NSW)None [lower-alpha 1]
Last election0 seats, 3.43%1 seat, 0.49%1 seat, 0.33%
Current seats1 seat1 seat 1 seat
Seats neededIncrease2.svg75Increase2.svg75Increase2.svg75

Incumbent Prime Minister

Scott Morrison
Liberal/National coalition


The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.

Contents

All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.

The incumbent Liberal/National coalition government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor opposition is currently led by Anthony Albanese. Several other parties will also contest the election; the Greens being the third-largest party by vote.

Previous election

Result

Redistribution

The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.

Demographic statistics for December 2019 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 18 June 2020 were used to calculate the determination. The population counts confirmed that the number of seats in the House of Representatives was to return to 150, with Victoria gaining a seat (39) and Western Australia (15) and the Northern Territory (1) losing a seat each. [1] [2]

June 2020 determination (set aside)
StateSeatsChange
New South Wales47Steady2.svg
Victoria39Increase2.svg 1
Queensland30Steady2.svg
Western Australia15Decrease2.svg 1
South Australia10Steady2.svg
Tasmania5Steady2.svg
Australian Capital Territory3Steady2.svg
Northern Territory1Decrease2.svg 1
Total150Decrease2.svg 1

The abolition of the Northern Territory's second seat in the determination was controversial. [3] Labor Party Senators Malarndirri McCarthy and Don Farrell put forward a private senator's bill which would guarantee the Northern Territory a minimum two seats in the House of Representatives, with the bill referred to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. [4] In July 2020, election analyst Antony Green proposed to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters that the "harmonic mean method" be used to calculate the electoral representation entitlements for the territories. [5] Green also blogged on the history of representation and its applications to states and territories in light of the 2020 redistribution [6] [7] [8] and his advocacy proved persuasive. [4] In October 2020, deputy prime minister Michael McCormack gave an assurance that the government and opposition would combine to overrule the AEC and maintain the Northern Territory's level of representation. The mechanism by which this would be used to achieved was unclear, [9] however, with Senator Mathias Cormann stating that a two seat minimum for the territories would be legislated. [10] Mandating a minimum number of seats for the Northern Territory but not the Australian Capital Territory was seen as potentially inequitable, though the ACT's level of representation was not under threat. [4] A 2003 report had also recommended against adopting mandatory minimum entitlements to seats in the House of Representatives for either of the territories. [11]

Ultimately, the Joint Standing Committee recommended "enacting a harmonic mean for allocating seats between States and Territories, with appropriate public explanation to build understanding for the reform." [4] The Parliament passed the Electoral Amendment (Territory Representation) Act on 9 December 2020, amending the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 to utilise the harmonic mean method for determining representative entitlements for territories relative to states. [12] [13] Consequently, the Northern Territory will retain two seats in the House of Representatives at the next election, [12] an outcome achieved without legislating any mandatory minimum level of representation. [4]

December 2020 determination
StateSeatsChange
New South Wales47Steady2.svg
Victoria39Increase2.svg 1
Queensland30Steady2.svg
Western Australia15Decrease2.svg 1
South Australia10Steady2.svg
Tasmania5Steady2.svg
Australian Capital Territory3Steady2.svg
Northern Territory2Steady2.svg
Total151Steady2.svg

In March 2021, the AEC published its proposal for this redistribution, involving the abolition of the Division of Stirling in Western Australia, [14] the creation of the new Division of Hawke in Victoria (named for former Prime Minister Bob Hawke), and the renaming of the existing Division of Corangamite to the Division of Tucker (in honour of Margaret Tucker, "a Yorta Yorta woman, for her significant work to create a more equal and understanding society for Aboriginal people"). [15] [16] When the AEC published its final determinations in June 2021, the abolition of Stirling [17] and creation of Hawke were confirmed, [18] but Corangamite would not be renamed to Tucker. [19]

Voter registration

Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election. [20]

Enrolment is optional for 16- or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18, [21] and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship. [22]

Election date

Election typeLatest Saturday
Representatives only3 September 2022
Half-senate only21 May 2022
Representatives + half-senate21 May 2022
Double dissolution
(requires trigger)
5 March 2022

Though federal elections must be conducted on a Saturday, [23] the date and type of federal election is determined by the Prime Minister – after a consideration of constitutional requirements, legal requirements, as well as political considerations – who advises the Governor-General to set the process in motion by dissolving the lower or both houses and issuing writs for election. The Constitution of Australia does not require simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, though simultaneous elections are held if an election for the House is called and a Senate half-election is due. When Prime Minister Robert Menzies called the November 1963 election, only the seats in the House of Representatives were vacated as it was too early to hold a half-senate election. [24] Separate House of Representatives and Senate elections were then held until the electoral timetables were brought together again at the May 1974 election. [25] According to the Parliament of Australia's website, the "conventional wisdom now is that separate Senate elections result in poor Senate results for governments and should be avoided if governments wish not to have unfriendly Senates." The most recent House-only election took place in 1972, and the most recent Senate-only election took place in 1970. Simultaneous elections are required in the case of a double dissolution election that is called under section 57 of the Australian Constitution when the Senate twice refuses to pass legislation sent to it by the House of Representatives. [26] This happened most recently in 2016 when then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull utilised three double dissolution triggers to call an election for the full Senate as well as for the House of Representatives. [27] However, the existence of a double dissolution trigger does not mandate that the Prime Minister must advise that an election be called. [28]

An election for the House of Representatives can be called at any time before the expiration of the three-year term of the House of Representatives [29] or up to ten days thereafter. [30] The term of the House of Representatives started on the first sitting day of the House following its election, which in the case of the 46th Parliament was 2 July 2019. This meant that the term of the House of Representatives will expire on 1 July 2022 and a House of Representatives election must be called by 11 July 2022. The Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) sets certain requirements. Up to 27 days must be allowed for nominations, [31] and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations. [32] This will result in the latest election date for the House of Representatives to be before 7 September 2022, with the latest Saturday being 3 September 2022.

The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections, [33] so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2021. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 7 August 2021. [34] The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2022. This took 41 days in 2019, and were returned on the last possible date available given the impending commencement of the new senators. Using this approximate time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 21 May 2022.

A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives. [35] That means that any double dissolution of the 46th Parliament will have to be granted by 1 January 2022. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 5 March 2022. [34] This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include: [36]

Other considerations

Other events such as elections and holidays may also be taken into account and influence on when the election will be called: [38]

Candidates

Candidates for either house must be formally nominated with the Electoral Commission. The nomination for a party-endorsed candidate must be signed by the Registered Officer of a party registered under the Electoral Act. Fifty signatures of eligible voters are required for an independent candidate. A candidate can nominate for only one electorate, and must pass a number of qualifications.

A deposit of $2,000 will be required for a candidate for the House of Representatives or the Senate, which is refunded if the candidate is elected or gains at least 4% of the first preference vote. [39] [40] Between 10 and 27 days must be allowed after the issue of writs before the close of nominations. [31]

Parties and leaders

NameIdeologyLeading
candidate(s)
2019 resultCurrent seats
Votes (%)Seats
Coalition [lower-alpha 2] Liberal Party Liberal conservatism Scott Morrison 41.44%
77 / 151
76 / 151
National Party Agrarianism Barnaby Joyce
Australian Labor Party (ALP) Social democracy Anthony Albanese 33.34%
68 / 151
68 / 151
Australian Greens Green politics Adam Bandt 10.40%
1 / 151
1 / 151
Katter's Australian Party (KAP) Conservatism Bob Katter [lower-alpha 3] 0.49%
1 / 151
1 / 151
Centre Alliance Centrism No leader0.33%
1 / 151
1 / 151
United Australia Party Right-wing populism Craig Kelly 3.43%
0 / 151
1 / 151
Independents [lower-alpha 4]
3 / 151
3 / 151

Retiring and disendorsed members

Retiring

Members of Parliament and Senators who have announced they will not renominate for the upcoming election are as follows:

Labor

Liberal

Nationals

Disendorsed

These members have lost preselection to re-contest their seats for their parties, but have made no public statement of their intentions in relation to the next election:

Election pendulum

This Mackerras pendulum includes new notional margin estimates in Victoria and Western Australia due to boundary redistributions. [54]

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Bass Tas Bridget Archer LIB0.4
Chisholm Vic Gladys Liu LIB0.5
Wentworth NSW Dave Sharma LIB vs. IND1.3
Boothby SA Nicolle Flint LIB1.4
Braddon Tas Gavin Pearce LIB3.1
Reid NSW Fiona Martin LIB3.2
Longman Qld Terry Young LNP3.3
Swan WA Steve Irons LIB3.3
Higgins Vic Katie Allen LIB3.7
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LNP4.2
Robertson NSW Lucy Wicks LIB4.2
Casey Vic Tony Smith LIB4.6
Dickson Qld Peter Dutton LNP4.6
Deakin Vic Michael Sukkar LIB4.7
Brisbane Qld Trevor Evans LNP4.9
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB5.0
Pearce WA Christian Porter LIB5.2
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB5.5
Flinders Vic Greg Hunt LIB5.6
Kooyong Vic Josh Frydenberg LIB vs. GRN5.6
Hasluck WA Ken Wyatt LIB5.8
Fairly safe
Ryan Qld Julian Simmonds LNP6.0
Banks NSW David Coleman LIB6.3
Cowper NSW Pat Conaghan NAT vs. IND6.8
Sturt SA James Stevens LIB6.9
Monash Vic Russell Broadbent LIB6.9
Bennelong NSW John Alexander LIB6.9
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB7.0
Bonner Qld Ross Vasta LNP7.4
Goldstein Vic Tim Wilson LIB7.8
Herbert Qld Phillip Thompson LIB8.4
Petrie Qld Luke Howarth LNP8.4
Forde Qld Bert Van Manen LNP8.6
Flynn Qld Ken O'Dowd LNP8.7
North Sydney NSW Trent Zimmerman LIB9.3
Page NSW Kevin Hogan NAT9.4
Tangney WA Ben Morton LIB9.5
Safe
Aston Vic Alan Tudge LIB10.1
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB10.2
Bowman Qld Andrew Laming LNP10.2
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB vs. IND10.9
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB11.6
Moore WA Ian Goodenough LIB11.6
McPherson Qld Karen Andrews LNP12.2
Capricornia Qld Michelle Landry LNP12.4
Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LNP12.7
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB13.0
Wide Bay Qld Llew O'Brien LNP13.1
Mackellar NSW Jason Falinski LIB13.2
Calare NSW Andrew Gee NAT13.3
Grey SA Rowan Ramsey LIB13.3
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LNP13.4
Durack WA Melissa Price LIB13.5
Curtin WA Celia Hammond LIB14.0
Fadden Qld Stuart Robert LNP14.2
New England NSW Barnaby Joyce NAT vs. IND14.4
Hinkler Qld Keith Pitt LNP14.5
Dawson Qld George Christensen LNP14.6
Forrest WA Nola Marino LIB14.6
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LNP14.6
Lyne NSW David Gillespie NAT15.2
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LNP15.4
O'Connor WA Rick Wilson LIB15.4
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB15.6
Mallee Vic Anne Webster NAT15.7
Bradfield NSW Paul Fletcher LIB16.6
Gippsland Vic Darren Chester NAT16.7
Parkes NSW Mark Coulton NAT16.9
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LNP (b/e)17.2
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB18.6
Barker SA Tony Pasin LIB18.9
Cook NSW Scott Morrison LIB19.0
Riverina NSW Michael McCormack NAT19.5
Nicholls Vic Damian Drum NAT20.0
Maranoa Qld David Littleproud LNP vs PHON22.5
OPPOSITION SEATS
Marginal
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP0.2
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP (b/e) 0.4
Lilley Qld Anika Wells ALP0.6
Cowan WA Anne Aly ALP0.9
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP1.0
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP1.2
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP1.5
Moreton Qld Graham Perrett ALP1.9
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP2.6
Dunkley Vic Peta Murphy ALP2.7
Greenway NSW Michelle Rowland ALP2.8
Griffith Qld Terri Butler ALP2.9
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP vs NAT3.0
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP3.1
Perth WA Patrick Gorman ALP3.2
Parramatta NSW Julie Owens ALP3.5
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP vs NAT4.1
Shortland NSW Pat Conroy ALP4.4
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP5.0
Lyons Tas Brian Mitchell ALP5.2
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP5.3
Burt WA Matt Keogh ALP5.4
Lingiari NT Warren Snowdon ALP5.5
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP5.5
Jagajaga Vic Kate Thwaites ALP5.9
Fairly safe
Macnamara Vic Josh Burns ALP6.1
Isaacs Vic Mark Dreyfus ALP6.4
Oxley Qld Milton Dick ALP6.4
Rankin Qld Jim Chalmers ALP6.4
Hindmarsh SA Mark Butler ALP6.5
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP6.6
Brand WA Madeleine King ALP6.7
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP6.9
Bruce Vic Julian Hill ALP7.3
Bean ACT David Smith ALP7.5
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP8.2
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP vs. GRN8.2
Macarthur NSW Mike Freelander ALP8.4
Kingsford Smith NSW Matt Thistlethwaite ALP8.8
Holt Vic Anthony Byrne ALP8.9
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP8.9
Barton NSW Linda Burney ALP9.4
Makin SA Tony Zappia ALP9.7
Safe
Hawke Vicnew seatALP10.2
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP10.3
Maribyrnong Vic Bill Shorten ALP10.3
Corio Vic Richard Marles ALP10.3
Fenner ACT Andrew Leigh ALP10.6
Whitlam NSW Stephen Jones ALP10.9
Hotham Vic Clare O'Neil ALP11.2
Kingston SA Amanda Rishworth ALP11.9
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP12.2
Chifley NSW Ed Husic ALP12.4
Lalor Vic Joanne Ryan ALP12.4
Gellibrand Vic Tim Watts ALP13.0
Cunningham NSW Sharon Bird ALP13.4
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP13.5
Newcastle NSW Sharon Claydon ALP13.8
Fowler NSW Chris Hayes ALP14.0
Spence SA Nick Champion ALP14.1
Gorton Vic Brendan O'Connor ALP14.3
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP vs. GRN14.6
Blaxland NSW Jason Clare ALP14.7
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP vs. GRN16.3
Canberra ACT Alicia Payne ALP17.1
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP18.1
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP18.7
Calwell Vic Maria Vamvakinou ALP19.6
Scullin Vic Andrew Giles ALP21.7
CROSS BENCH SEATS
Indi Vic Helen Haines IND vs. LIB1.4
Mayo SA Rebekha Sharkie CA vs. LIB5.1
Warringah NSW Zali Steggall IND vs. LIB7.2
Hughes NSW Craig Kelly LIB9.9
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter KAP vs. LNP13.3
Melbourne Vic Adam Bandt GRN vs. LIB21.8
Clark Tas Andrew Wilkie IND vs. ALP22.1


Opinion polling

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.


See also

Notes

  1. Robbie Katter sits as an MP in the Parliament of Queensland for Traeger.
  2. The Coalition formally comprises the Liberal Party and National Party. Federal parliamentary members of the Liberal National Party of Queensland and Country Liberal Party (Northern Territory) sit in the party room of either the Liberal or National parties, according to the individual members' preference or internal party arrangements.
  3. Robbie Katter is party leader, but is not contesting the federal election.
  4. Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines, Zali Steggall

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