Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

Last updated

In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Contents

Graphical summary

Primary vote

A line graph showing primary vote opinion polling data since the 2025 federal election..svg

Two-party preferred

A line graph showing two-party preferred opinion polling data since the 2025 federal election..svg

Voting intention

2025

DateBrandInterview
mode
Sample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote [a]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTHUND ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [1] Online5,00134%30%12%9%15%56.5%43.5%
11–15 Aug 2025Resolve [2] Telephone/Online1,80037%29%12%9%8%6%59%41%
18–30 Jul 2025Wolf & Smith [3] [4] 5,00036%30%57%43%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [5] Online5,15936.5%31%12%7%13.5%57%43%
13–18 Jul 2025Resolve [6] Telephone/Online2,31135%29%12%8%8%8%56%44%
14–17 Jul 2025 Newspoll [7] [8] Online1,26436%29%12%8%15%57%43%
5–6 Jul 2025DemosAU [9] Online1,19936%26%14%9%15%59%41%
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2025Spectre Strategy [10] Online1,00135.9%31%12.8%7.9%12.3%56.5%43.5%
Late June 2025 [b] Redbridge [11] Online4,03637%31%11%55.5%44.5%
23–29 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [12] Online1,52236.5%30.5%12%8.5%12.5%57.5%42.5%
2–22 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [13] Online3,95737.5%31%12%6%13.5%58%42%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025 Roy Morgan [14] Online5,12837%31%11.5%6%14.5%58.5%41.5%
20–28 May 2025The Liberal–National Coalition is temporarily dissolved
13 May 2025 Sussan Ley elected as Leader of the Liberal Party and the Opposition, replacing Peter Dutton
3 May 2025 Election [15] 34.6%31.8%12.2%6.4%7.4%7.6%55.2%44.8%

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

2025

DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred prime minister Albanese Ley
AlbaneseLeyDon't knowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNet
18–30 Jul 2025Wolf & Smith [3] [4] 5,00045%35%20%+10%
24 – 29 July 2025Essential [16] Online1,01250%41%9%+9%33%35%33%-2%
13 – 18 Jul 2025Resolve [6] Telephone/Online2,31140%25%35%+15%45%42%13%+3%38%29%33%+7%
14 – 17 Jul 2025 Newspoll [7] [8] Online1,26452%32%16%+20%47%47%6%0%35%42%23%–7%
4 – 10 Jul 2025Morning Consult [17] Online3,77054%35%11%+19%
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2025Spectre Strategy [10] Online1,00146%27%27%+19%
3 – 9 Jun 2025Morning Consult [17] Online3,77053%36%11%+17%
7 – 11 May 2025 Essential [18] Online1,13750%39%11%+11%
2 – 8 May 2025 Morning Consult [17] Online3,77057%33%9%+24%

National direction polling

Individual polls

DateFirmRight directionWrong directionCan't sayLead
24 – 29 July 2025Essential [16] 38%45%17%–7%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 37%46.5%16.5%–9.5%
23 Jun – 29 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [12] 38.5%46%15.5%–7.5%
2 Jun – 22 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [13] 43%41.5%15.5%+1.5%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [19] 41%44%15%–3%
7 – 11 May 2025Essential [20] 37%42%21%–5%

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Polling

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote [c]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [21] 5,00155%45%
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025Resolve [2] 1,80037%29%13%12%7%3%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15956.5%43.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025Resolve [6] [d] 2,31136%31%11%8%7%6%55%44%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12859%41%
3 May 2025 Election [15] 35.2%31.5%11.1%6.0%9.7%6.5%55.3%44.7%

Victoria

Polling

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote [e]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [22] 5,00158%42%
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025Resolve [2] 1,80036%30%12%6%7%8%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15957.5%42.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025Resolve [6] [f] 2,31138%28%13%8%6%8%60%41%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12859.5%40.5%
3 May 2025 Election [15] 34.0%32.2%13.6%5.8%7.6%6.8%56.3%43.7%

Queensland

Polling

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote [g]
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [23] 5,00148%52%
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025Resolve [2] 1,80029%39%10%9%8%5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15946.5%53.5%
13 – 18 July 2025Resolve [6] [h] 2,31131%31%11%10%8%8%48%51%
4 July – 9 July 2025DemosAU [24] [25] 1,02735%31%12%13%9%47%53%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12847.5%52.5%
3 May 2025 Election [15] 34.9%31.0%11.8%7.8%3.8%10.7%50.6%49.4%

Western Australia

Polling

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [26] 5,00156.5%43.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15954.5%45.5%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12858.5%41.5%
3 May 2025 Election [15] 35.6%31.5%12.0%7.6%6.2%7.1%55.8%44.2%

South Australia

Polling

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [27] 5,00159%41%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15962%38%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12858.5%41.5%
3 May 2025 Election [15] 38.3%28.0%13.4%6.2%3.4%10.7%59.2%40.8%

Tasmania

Polling

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [28] 5,00163.5%36.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15961%39%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12870.5%29.5%
3 May 2025 Election [15] 36.6%24.5%11.1%6.1%18.1%3.6%63.3%36.7%

ACT

Polling

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 Election [15] 47.5%21.2%15.1%12.8%3.4%72.5%27.5%

Northern Territory

Polling

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
3 May 2025 Election [15] 37.9%33.8%10.2%7.7%7.7%2.5%54.3%45.7%


Individual seat polling

Bradfield

DateFirmSample
size
Margin
of error
Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH LIB IND
Jun 2025uComms [i] [29] 1,14737.3%33.0%
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.0%27.0%20.3%6.7%1.6%6.4%49.99%50.01%

Subpopulation results

By gender

Women

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2pp vote [j]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [30] 5,00160.5%39.5%
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025Resolve [2] 1,80038%25%13%9%8%6%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15959.5%40.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025Resolve [6] [f] 2,31136%27%14%7%9%8%59.5%41.5%
5 – 6 Jul 2025DemosAU [9] 1,19936%25%15%15%10%60%40%
Late June 2025Redbridge [31] 4,03636%30%13%56%44%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12861%39%

Men

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2pp vote [j]
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [32] 5,00152%48%
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025Resolve [2] 1,80036%32%10%10%7%5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15954.5%45.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025Resolve [6] [f] 2,31134%31%11%9%8%8%55%46%
5 – 6 Jul 2025DemosAU [9] 1,19936%28%12%9%15%57%43%
Late June 2025Redbridge [33] 4,03639%32%8%54%46%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12855.5%44.5%

By age

18–34

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [34] 5,00171%29%
11 Aug – 15 Aug 2025Resolve [2] 1,80039%24%22%6%8%2%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [5] 5,15969%31%
13 – 18 Jul 2025Resolve [6] 2,31137%18%28%5%6%6%
5 – 6 Jul 2025DemosAU [9] 1,19939%16%31%4%10%73%27%
Late June 2025Redbridge [35] 4,03640%19%24%68%32%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12870%30%

35–49

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [36] 5,00161%39%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15958%42%
Late June 2025Redbridge [37] 4,03637%25%11%57%43%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12862.5%37.5%

50–64

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [38] 5,00149.5%50.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,15953%47%
Late June 2025Redbridge [39] 4,03637%34%5%50%50%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12853%47%

65+

DateFirmSample
size
Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan [40] 5,00143.5%56.5%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12848%52%
Late June 2025Redbridge [41] 4,03636%44%2%45%55%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025Roy Morgan [14] 5,12848.5%51.5%

See also

Notes

  1. Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election by The Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham.
  2. Exact fieldwork dates were not specified.
  3. Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in New South Wales.
  4. Primary and 2PP vote sum is less than 100 due to rounding.
  5. Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in Victoria.
  6. 1 2 3 Primary and 2PP vote sum is greater than 100 due to rounding.
  7. Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election in Queensland.
  8. Primary and 2PP vote sum is less than 100 due to rounding.
  9. Commissioned by Climate 200.
  10. 1 2 Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election.

References

  1. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Wright, Shane (17 August 2025). "Albanese won 94 seats at the election. Now voters want to give him even more" . The Sydney Morning Herald . Archived from the original on 17 August 2025. Retrieved 17 August 2025.
  3. 1 2 Coorey, Phillip (5 August 2025). "Voters baulk at expanding GST to fund tax cuts" . Australian Financial Review . Archived from the original on 5 August 2025. Retrieved 6 August 2025.
  4. 1 2 Bowe, William (7 August 2025). "Wolf + Smith: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 7 August 2025. Retrieved 6 August 2025.
  5. 1 2 "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in July: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%". Roy Morgan Research. 28 July 2025. Archived from the original on 28 July 2025. Retrieved 28 July 2025.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Wright, Shane (20 July 2025). "The long climb: Disaster for Coalition in new opinion poll as Albanese builds on record win". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  7. 1 2 Benson, Simon (20 July 2025). "Newspoll: Coalition vote collapses as Labor snags a second honeymoon". The Australian. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  8. 1 2 Tan, Sebastian; Brown, Andrew (21 July 2025). "'Honeymoon effect': Labor extends lead in latest poll". Yahoo! News. Australian Associated Press. Archived from the original on 22 July 2025. Retrieved 22 July 2025.
  9. 1 2 3 4 "DemosAU Report: Federal Voting Intention July 05-06 2025" (PDF). DemosAU. 9 July 2025. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  10. 1 2 "Australian Federal Polling Update - July 2025". Spectre Strategy. 8 July 2025. Retrieved 8 July 2025.
  11. Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  12. 1 2 "Albanese Government retains strong two-party preferred lead after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%". Roy Morgan . 30 June 2025.
  13. 1 2 "Federal voting intention before US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites showed the ALP retained a strong two-party preferred lead: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%". Roy Morgan . 24 June 2025.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 "Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoys third honeymoon as ALP strengthens two-party preferred lead in May: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%". Roy Morgan . 3 June 2025.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Party Totals". abc.net.au. 3 May 2025. Retrieved 4 June 2025.
  16. 1 2 "The Essential Report: 30 July 2025". 30 July 2025. Retrieved 2 August 2025.
  17. 1 2 3 "Global Leader Approval Rating Tracker | Morning Consult". Morning Consult Pro. Retrieved 18 May 2025.
  18. "Political Insights". essentialreport.com.au. Retrieved 14 May 2025.
  19. "Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoys third honeymoon as ALP strengthens two-party preferred lead in May: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5% - Roy Morgan Research". www.roymorgan.com. Retrieved 3 June 2025.
  20. "Political Insights". essentialreport.com.au. Retrieved 3 June 2025.
  21. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  22. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  23. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  24. "Queensland State and Federal Voting Intention July 04-09 2025". DemosAU. 10 July 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 July 2025. Retrieved 14 July 2025.
  25. "Crisafulli and Albanese enjoy honeymoon periods". DemosAU. 14 July 2025. Archived from the original on 14 July 2025. Retrieved 14 July 2025.
  26. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  27. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  28. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  29. Smith, Alexandra (1 July 2025). "NSW Liberals push Greiner to fund Bradfield court challenge after 26-vote loss". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 22 July 2025. Retrieved 22 July 2025.
  30. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  31. Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  32. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  33. Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  34. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  35. Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  36. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  37. Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  38. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  39. Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  40. "ALP maintains strong two-party preferred lead in August: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% as support for minor parties surges". Roy Morgan Research. 25 August 2025. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  41. Coorey, Phillip (2 July 2025). "'Youthquake': Coalition deserted by younger voters". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 20 July 2025.