Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

Last updated

In the run-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies are conducting opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, and contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote.

Contents

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - primary.svg

Two-party preferred

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - two party preferred.svg

Voting intention

2024

DateBrandInterview modeSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [lower-alpha 1]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
17–21 April 2024Essential [1] Online1,14535%31%11%9%1%9%4%47%49%
17–21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [2] Online1,61036%30%13%5%2%14%—50%50%
15–21 April 2024Roy Morgan [3] Online1,61735.5%30.5%16%5.5%—12.5%—52%48%
15–18 April 2024Newspoll [4] Online1,23638%33%12%7%—10%—51%49%
12–14 April 2024Freshwater Strategy [5] Online1,05540%31%13%——16%—50%50%
8–14 April 2024Roy Morgan [6] Online1,70638.5%30%13.5%5.5%—12.5%—49%51%
13 April 2024The Liberals are re-elected in the 2024 Cook by-election
3–7 April 2024Essential [1] Online1,16534%29%14%6%2%8%6%48%46%
1–7 April 2024Roy Morgan [7] Online1,73138%29.5%13.5%6%—13%—49.5%50.5%
25–31 March 2024Roy Morgan [8] Online1,67737.5%30%15.5%3.5%—13.5%—51%49%
22–27 March 2024YouGov [9] Online1,51338%32%13%7%—10%—51%49%
21–24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [10] Online1,61035%32%13%5%2%13%—53%47%
20–24 March 2024Essential [1] Online1,15036%29%11%7%3%7%6%44%50%
18–24 March 2024Roy Morgan [11] Online1,63338%31.5%14%4.5%—12%—50%50%
18–22 March 2024Newspoll [12] Online1,22337%32%13%7%—11%—51%49%
11–17 March 2024Roy Morgan [13] Online1,71037%31.5%12.5%5.5%—13.5%—51.5%48.5%
8–10 March 2024Freshwater Strategy [14] Online1,05139%31%14%——16%—51%49%
4–10 March 2024Roy Morgan [15] Online1,71438%32%13%4%—13%—51.5%48.5%
5–9 March 2024Essential [1] Online1,12635%32%11%8%2%8%5%48%47%
24 February –5 March 2024YouGov [16] Online1,53937%32%15%6%—10%—52%48%
26 February –3 March 2024Roy Morgan [17] Online1,67936.5%34%13.5%3.5%—12.5%—53.5%46.5%
2 March 2024Labor is re-elected in the 2024 Dunkley by-election
21–25 February 2024Essential [1] Online1,14535%30%13%7%2%8%4%47%48%
19–25 February 2024Roy Morgan [18] Online1,68238%31.5%12%5%—13.5%—50%50%
21–24 February 2024Resolve Strategic [19] Online1,60337%34%11%6%1%13%—52%48%
19–23 February 2024Newspoll [20] Online1,24536%33%12%6%—13%—52%48%
16–18 February 2024Freshwater Strategy [21] Online1,04938%31%14%——17%—51%49%
12–18 February 2024Roy Morgan [22] Online1,70637%34%13%4%—12%—52.5%47.5%
7–11 February 2024Essential [1] Online1,14834%31%14%7%1%9%5%50%46%
5–11 February 2024Roy Morgan [23] Online1,69937%34.5%12%4.5%—12%—52%48%
2–7 February 2024YouGov [24] Online1,50236%32%14%8%—10%—52%48%
30 January –7 February 2024RedBridge Group [25] Online2,04038%33%13%——16%—51.2%48.8%
29 January –4 February 2024Roy Morgan [26] Online1,70937%33%12%5%—13%—53%47%
31 January –3 February 2024Newspoll [27] Online1,24536%34%12%7%—11%—52%48%
24–28 January 2024Essential [1] Online1,20134%32%13%7%2%7%5%48%46%
22–28 January 2024Roy Morgan [28] Online1,68837.5%31%13%5.5%—13%—50.5%49.5%
15–21 January 2024Roy Morgan [29] Online1,67536%32.5%12.5%5%—14%—52.5%47.5%
12–17 January 2024YouGov [30] Online1,53237%32%13%7%—11%—52%48%
8–14 January 2024Roy Morgan [31] Online1,72737%31.5%12%4.5%—15%—51.5%48.5%
10–11 January 2024Freshwater Strategy [32] [33] [34] Online1,00739%31%13%——16%—50%50%
2–7 January 2024Roy Morgan [35] Online1,71639%29%13%5%—14%—49%51%

2023

DateBrandInterview modeSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [lower-alpha 2]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
15–17 December 2023Freshwater Strategy [36] Online1,10939%31%13%——16%—50%50%
11–17 December 2023Roy Morgan [37] Online1,10938%32%11.5%4.5%—14%—50%50%
11–15 December 2023Newspoll [38] Online1,21936%33%13%7%—11%—52%48%
6–11 December 2023Essential [1] Online1,10234%31%13%6%2%9%5%49%46%
6–11 December 2023RedBridge Group [39] Online2,01035%33%13%——19%—52.8%47.2%
1–5 December 2023YouGov [40] [41] Online1,55536%29%15%7%—13%—51%49%
29 November –3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [42] [43] Online1,60534%35%12%5%1%12%—55%45%
27 November –3 December 2023Roy Morgan [44] —1,73037.5%32.5%12.5%5%—12.5%—51%49%
22–26 November 2023Essential [1] Online1,15134%31%13%7%1%8%6%48%47%
20–26 November 2023Roy Morgan [45] —1,37935%32%13.5%5%—14.5%—52.5%47.5%
20–24 November 2023Newspoll [46] Online1,21638%31%13%6%—12%—50%50%
13–19 November 2023Roy Morgan [47] —1,40137.5%29.5%13.5%6.5%—13%—49.5%50.5%
10–14 November 2023YouGov [48] Online1,58236%31%13%7%—13%—51%49%
8–12 November 2023Essential [1] Online1,15034%32%12%7%2%8%5%49%47%
6–12 November 2023Roy Morgan [49] —1,39736.5%30%13%6%—14.5%—50%50%
1–5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [50] Online1,60230%35%13%7%2%13%—57%43%
30 October –3 November 2023Newspoll [51] Online1,22037%35%12%6%—10%—52%48%
27 October –2 November 2023RedBridge Group [52] Online1,20535%34%14%——17%—53.5%46.5%
25–29 October 2023Essential [1] Online1,14934%32%10%7%3%9%6%48%46%
23–29 October 2023Roy Morgan [53] —1,37535%32.5%15%——17.5%—53%47%
16–22 October 2023Roy Morgan [54] —1,38336%32%14%4.5%—13.5%—49.5%50.5%
14 October 2023The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum is defeated
4–12 October 2023Newspoll [55] Online2,63835%36%12%6%—11%—54%46%
6–10 October 2023YouGov [56] Online1,51936%33%14%6%—11%—53%47%
3–6 October 2023Newspoll [57] [58] Online1,22536%34%12%5%—13%—53%47%
22 September –4 October 2023Resolve Strategic [59] [60] Online4,72831%37%12%7%2%11%—57%43%
27 September –1 October 2023Essential [1] Online1,12532%33%14%6%2%7%5%50%45%
25–29 September 2023YouGov [61] [62] Online1,56335%33%13%——19%—53%47%
22–24 September 2023Freshwater Strategy [63] Online1,00337%33%13%——17%—51%49%
18–22 September 2023Newspoll [64] [65] Online1,23936%36%11%6%—11%—54%46%
13–17 September 2023Essential [1] Online1,13532%31%13%8%2%8%6%49%45%
4–10 September 2023Roy Morgan [66] —1,38237%32%13.5%——17.5%—52.5%47.5%
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic [67] [68] Online1,60434%36%12%5%2%11%—55.5%44.5%
30 August –4 September 2023RedBridge Group [69] Online1,00136%37%13%——14%—54.1%45.9%
30 August –3 September 2023Essential [1] Online1,15132%31%15%7%2%7%6%51%43%
28 August –3 September 2023Roy Morgan [70] —1,40437.5%33.5%13%——16%—53%47%
28 August –1 September 2023Newspoll [71] Online1,20037%35%13%7%—8%—53%47%
16–20 August 2023Essential [1] [72] Online1,15133%33%14%5%3%7%6%51%43%
10–14 August 2023RedBridge Group [73] Online1,01032%38%10%——21%—55.6%44.4%
9–13 August 2023Resolve Strategic [74] [75] Online1,60333%37%11%5%2%12%—56%44%
2–6 August 2023Essential [1] [76] Online1,15030%33%12%8%2%8%6%52%42%
19–23 July 2023Essential [1] [77] Online1,15032%31%14%7%1%9%6%50%45%
15 July 2023LNP is re-elected in the 2023 Fadden by-election
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [78] [79] Online1,61030%39%11%6%1%11%—59%41%
12–15 July 2023Newspoll [80] [81] Online1,57034%36%12%7%—11%—55%45%
5–9 July 2023Essential [1] [82] Online2,24832%32%14%8%1%8%5%51%44%
21–25 June 2023Essential [1] Online1,14830%32%14%7%2%11%6%52%42%
16–24 June 2023Newspoll [83] [84] Online2,30335%38%11%6%—10%—54%46%
7–11 June 2023Essential [1] Online1,12332%32%16%5%1%9%5%52%42%
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [85] [86] Online1,60630%40%12%6%2%10%—60%40%
31 May – 3 June 2023Newspoll [87] [88] Online1,54934%38%12%6%—10%—55%45%
24–28 May 2023Essential [1] Online1,13831%34%15%6%2%7%5%52%43%
15–17 May 2023Freshwater Strategy [89] [90] Online1,00537%34%12%——17%—52%48%
10–14 May 2023Essential [1] [91] Online1,08031%35%14%5%1%8%5%53%42%
11–13 May 2023Newspoll [92] [93] Online1,51634%38%11%7%—10%—55%45%
10–13 May 2023Resolve Strategic [94] [95] Online1,61030%42%12%5%2%8%2%61%39%
26–30 April 2023Essential [1] [96] Online1,13032%33%14%5%2%8%5%53%41%
19–22 April 2023Newspoll [97] [98] Online1,51433%38%11%7%—11%—56%44%
12–16 April 2023Essential [1] [99] Online1,13631%34%14%6%3%9%4%52%43%
12–16 April 2023Resolve Strategic [100] [101] Online1,60928%42%12%6%1%11%—61.5%38.5%
29 March – 2 April 2023Essential [1] [102] Online1,13330%33%14%6%2%10%5%53%42%
29 March – 1 April 2023Newspoll [103] Online1,50033%38%10%8%—11%—55%45%
1 April 2023Labor wins the 2023 Aston by-election
15–20 March 2023Essential [1] [104] Online1,12431%34%14%5%2%9%5%52%43%
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic [105] [104] Online1,60030%39%13%5%1%11%—60%40%
1–5 March 2023Essential [1] Online1,14132%32%12%7%2%10%7%49%44%
27 February – 5 March 2023Roy Morgan——33.5%38%11.5%——17%—54.5%45.5%
1–4 March 2023Newspoll [106] Online1,53035%37%10%7%—11%—54%46%
20–26 February 2023Roy Morgan——34.5%37%13.5%——15%—56.5%43.5%
15–19 February 2023Essential [1] Online1,04430%33%14%6%3%8%8%51%42%
15–19 February 2023Resolve Strategic [107] [108] Online1,60431%40%10%5%1%11%—57.9%42.1%
13–19 February 2023Roy MorganOnline/Telephone—33%37%13%——17%—58.5%41.5%
1–6 February 2023Essential [1] Online1,00030%33%17%6%1%15%5%55%40%
1–4 February 2023Newspoll [109] [110] Online1,51234%38%11%6%1%10%—55%45%
23–29 January 2023Roy Morgan——33.5%37.5%11.5%——17.5%—57%43%
18–22 January 2023Essential [1] [111] Online1,05031%34%14%8%1%7%5%53%42%
17–22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [112] [111] Online1,60629%42%11%6%2%11%—60%40%

2022

DateBrandInterview modeSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [lower-alpha 3]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
23 December 2022 Andrew Gee leaves the Nationals to become an Independent
16–18 December 2022Freshwater Strategy [113] [114] [115] Online1,20937%37%12%4%1%9%—54%46%
7–11 December 2022Essential [1] Online1,04230%35%13%6%3%8%5%51%44%
30 November–4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [116] [117] Online1,61130%42%11%4%2%8%—60%40%
30 November–3 December 2022Newspoll [118] Online1,50835%39%11%6%1%9%—55%45%
23–27 November 2022 Essential [118] [119] Online1,04231%33%13%——17%6%51%43%
27–30 October 2022Newspoll-YouGov [120] Online1,50035%38%11%6%1%9%—55%45%
26–30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [121] [120] Online1,61132%39%13%4%1%11%—57.4% [lower-alpha 4] 42.6%
5–9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [122] [123] Online1,60430%39%12%5%3%11%—58.3%41.7%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [124] [125] Online1,60732%39%10%6%2%11%—57%43%
31 August–3 September 2022Newspoll-YouGov [126] [127] Online1,50531%37%13.5%7%2%10%—57%43%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [128] [129] Online2,01128%42%12%5%2%11%—61.3%38.7%
27–30 July 2022 Newspoll-YouGov [130] [131] Online1,50833%37%12%6%2%10%—56%44%
14–17 June 2022Dynata [132] Online1,00131%34%12%4%4%7%9%52.2% [lower-alpha 5] 47.8%
13–19 June 2022 Roy Morgan [133] Online/telephone1,40137%36%11%4%0.5%11.5%—53%47%
29 May 2022 Peter Dutton elected unopposed as Leader of the Liberal Party [134]
21 May 2022 Election [135] [136] 35.7%32.6%12.2%5.0%4.1%10.4%—52.1%47.9%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and psephologist Kevin Bonham.
  2. ↑ Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and psephologist Kevin Bonham.
  3. ↑ Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham.
  4. ↑ Calculated using the Australian Federal Two-Party-Preferred Estimator from Armarium Interrata. Does not account undecided voters.
  5. ↑ Calculated using the Australian Federal Two-Party-Preferred Estimator from Armarium Interreta. Does not account undecided voters.

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

Graphical summary

The following graphical summaries illustrate results from opinion polling for preferred Prime Minister and their respective approval ratings based on data below that is documented in the tables.

Preferred Prime Minister

Australian Federal Election Polling - 48th Parliament - PPM.svg

Leadership approval ratings

Albanese

Australian Federal Election Polling - 48th Parliament - Albanese Approval.svg

Dutton

Australian Federal Election - 48th Parliament - Dutton Approval.svg

Preferred Prime Minister and leadership polling table

2024
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred Prime Minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
17–21 April 2024Essential [137] Online1,145———43%48%9%−5%44%41%15%+3%
17–21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [2] Online1,61041%32%27%43%45%12%−2%40%42%17%−2%
15–18 April 2024Newspoll [4] Online1,23648%35%17%———−6%———−15%
12–14 April 2024Freshwater Strategy [5] Online1,05545%39%16%38%45%17%−7%32%41%27%−9%
22–27 March 2024YouGov [9] Online1,51346%34%20%41%52%7%−11%38%49%13%−11%
21–24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [10] Online1,61040%30%30%38%49%13%−11%36%44%20%−8%
18–22 March 2024Newspoll [12] Online1,22348%34%18%44%51%5%−7%37%52%11%−15%
8–10 March 2024Freshwater Strategy [14] Online1,05147%38%15% [lower-alpha 1] 37%45%18%−8%30%43%27%−13%
24 February – 5 March 2024YouGov [16] Online1,53948%34%18%44%50%6%−6%39%49%12%−10%
21–25 February 2024Essential [138] Online1,145———42%47%10%−5%40%44%16%−4%
21–24 February 2024Resolve Strategic [19] Online1,60339%32%29%41%47%12%−6%35%45%20%−10%
19–23 February 2024Newspoll [20] Online1,24547%35%18%43%51%6%−8%37%51%12%−14%
16–18 February 2024Freshwater Strategy [139] Online1,04942%38%19% [lower-alpha 2] 38%45%18%−7%32%41%28%−9%
2–7 February 2024YouGov [24] Online1,50245%38%17%———−16%———−8%
31 January–3 February 2024Newspoll [27] [140] Online1,24546%35%19%42%51%7%−9%37%50%13%−13%
24–28 January 2024Essential [141] Online1,201———41%47%12%−6%38%43%19%−5%
12–17 January 2024YouGov [30] Online1,53245%35%20%———−13%———−11%
10–11 January 2024Freshwater Strategy [32] [33] [34] Online1,00747%38%15% [lower-alpha 3] 38%43%19%−5%31%40%30%−9%
2023
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred Prime Minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
15–17 December 2023Freshwater Strategy [36] Online1,10943%39%18% [lower-alpha 4] 37%42%20%−5%34%36%30%−2%
11–15 December 2023Newspoll [38] Online1,21946%35%19%42%50%8%−8%39%48%13%−9%
1–5 December 2023YouGov [40] [41] Online1,55546%36%18%39%55%6%−16%39%48%13%−9%
29 November–3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [42] Online1,60542%28%30%37%48%15%−11%34%42%24%−8%
22–26 November 2023Essential [142] Online1,151———42%47%12%−5%39%42%19%−3%
20–24 November 2023Newspoll [46] Online1,21646%35%19%40%53%7%−13%37%50%13%−13%
10–14 November 2023YouGov [48] [143] Online1,58248%34%18%43%50%7%−7%40%47%13%−7%
1–5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [50] Online1,60240%27%33%39%46%15%−7%36%40%25%−4%
30 October–3 November 2023Newspoll [51] Online1,22046%36%18%42%52%6%−10%37%50%13%−13%
11–14 October 2023Essential [144] Online1,125———46%43%11%+3%36%43%21%−7%
4–12 October 2023Newspoll [55] Online2,63851%31%18%46%46%8%0%35%53%12%−18%
6–10 October 2023YouGov [56] [143] Online1,51950%34%16%45%48%7%−3%38%50%12%−12%
3–6 October 2023Newspoll [57] [58] Online1,22550%33%17%45%46%9%−1%37%50%13%−13%
22 September–4 October 2023Resolve Strategic [59] [60] Online1,60447%25%28%43%43%14%0%30%45%25%−15%
25–29 September 2023YouGov [61] [143] Online1,56350%33%17%————————
22–24 September 2023Freshwater Strategy [63] Online1,00346%37%17% [lower-alpha 5] 38%41%21%−3%30%40%30%−10%
18–22 September 2023Newspoll [64] [65] Online1,23950%30%20%47%44%9%+3%32%52%16%−20%
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic [67] [68] Online1,60443%28%29%40%47%13%−7%35%43%22%−8%
30 August–3 September 2023Essential [145] Online1,151———46%43%10%+3%38%43%19%−5%
28 August–1 September 2023Newspoll [71] Online1,20050%31%19%46%47%7%−1%38%49%13%−11%
9-13 August 2023Resolve Strategic [74] [75] Online1,60346%25%29%44%42%14%+2%31%44%24%−13%
19-23 July 2023Essential [77] [146] Online1,150———48%41%11%+7%37%43%20%−6%
12-15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [78] [79] Online1,61051%21%28%51%34%15%+17%31%47%23%−16%
12-15 July 2023Newspoll [80] Online1,57054%29%17%52%41%7%+11%36%49%15%−13%
16-24 June 2023Newspoll [83] Online2,30352%32%16%52%42%6%+10%38%49%13%−11%
29 May - 12 June 2023CT Group [147] Online3,000———42%36%22%+6%————
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [85] [86] Online1,60653%22%25%53%35%13%+18%28%48%24%−20%
31 May – 3 June 2023Newspoll [87] Online1,54955%28%17%55%37%8%+18%36%50%14%−14%
15-17 May 2023Freshwater Strategy [89] [90] Online1,00551%33%16% [lower-alpha 6] 42%37%21%+5%30%42%28%−12%
10–14 May 2023Essential [148] Online1,125———54%35%11%+19%36%45%19%−9%
11-13 May 2023Newspoll [92] [93] Online1,51656%29%15%57%38%5%+19%36%51%13%−15%
10–13 May 2023Resolve Strategic [94] [95] Online1,61053%20%27%56%29%14%+27%28%49%23%−21%
19–22 April 2023Newspoll [97] [98] Online1,51454%28%18%53%37%10%+16%33%52%15%−19%
12–16 April 2023Essential [149] Online1,136———51%36%12%+15%36%44%20%−8%
12–16 April 2023Resolve Strategic [100] [101] Online1,60955%21%24%56%29%14%+27%26%54%19%−28%
29 March – 2 April 2023Essential [150] Online1,133———52%35%13%+17%————
29 March – 1 April 2023NewspollOnline1,50058%26%16%56%35%9%+21%35%48%21%−13%
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic [105] [104] Online1,60051%22%27%55%31%13%+24%32%44%25%−12%
1–4 March 2023NewspollOnline1,53054%28%18%55%38%7%+17%37%48%15%−11%
15–21 February 2023Morning Consult—————57%31%12%+26%————
15–19 February 2023Essential [151] Online1,044———53%34%13%+19%————
15–19 February 2023Resolve Strategic [107] [108] Online1,60455%23%22%56%30%13%+26%29%45%26%−16%
1–4 February 2023Newspoll [109] [110] Online1,51256%26%18%57%33%10%+24%36%46%18%−10%
18–22 January 2023Essential [152] Online1,050———55%31%13%+24%————
17–22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [112] [111] Online1,60655%20%25%60%25%15%+35%28%46%26%−18%
2022
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred Prime Minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
16-18 December 2022Freshwater Strategy [113] [114] [115] Online1,20955%29%16% [lower-alpha 7] ––––––––
7–11 December 2022Essential [153] Online1,042–––60%27%13%+33%––––
30 November – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [116] [117] Online1,61154%19%27%60%24%16%+36%28%43%29%–15%
30 November – 3 December 2022Newspoll [118] Online1,50859%24%17%62%29%9%+33%36%45%19%–9%
16–22 November 2022Morning Consult [154] Online—–––56%31%25%+25%––––
9–14 November 2022Essential [155] Online1,035–––60%27%13%+33%––––
27–30 October 2022Newspoll [120] Online1,50054%27%19%59%33%8%+26%39%46%15%–7%
26–30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [121] [120] [156] Online1,61153%19%28%57%28%16%+29%29%41%30%–12%
13–16 October 2022Freshwater Strategic [lower-alpha 8] [157] Online1,042–––50%26%24%+24%33%34%33%–1%
11–16 October 2022Essential [158] Online1,122–––58%26%15%+32%––––
5–9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [122] [123] Online1,60453%18%29%60%25%15%+35%30%41%28%–11%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [124] [125] Online1,60753%19%28%60%24%16%+36%28%40%32%–12%
31 August – 4 September 2022Essential [159] Online1,070———59%25%15%+34%————
31 August – 3 September 2022Newspoll [126] Online1,50561%22%17%61%29%10%+32%35%43%22%–8%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [128] [129] Online2,01155%17%28%61%22%17%+39%30%37%32%–7%
3–7 August 2022Essential [160] Online1,075———55%28%18%+27%————
27–30 July 2022 Newspoll-YouGov [130] Online1,50859%25%16%61%26%13%+35%37%41%22%–4%
7–11 July 2022Essential [161] Online1,097———56%24%20%+32%————
8–12 June 2022 Essential [162] Online1,087———59%18%23%+41%————
23–31 May 2022 Morning Consult [163] Online3,770———51%24%25%+27%————
  1. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  2. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 16% "Neither"
  3. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  4. ↑ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 13% "Neither"
  5. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 14% "Neither"
  6. ↑ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  7. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  8. ↑ Polling conducted in NSW.

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [lower-alpha 1]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
21–24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [164] 1,61035%33%11%6%2%12%2%52%48%
31 January –22 March 2024Newspoll [164] 1,15238%32%12%7%——11%50%50%
21–24 February 2024Resolve Strategic [164] 1,60337%34%10%4%1%—14%51.5%48.5%
31 October - 15 December 2023Newspoll [164] 1,13937%32%13%7%——11%51%49%
28 August - 12 October 2023Newspoll [164] 1,56534%38%13%5%——10%56%44%
22 Sept - 4 Oct 2023Resolve Strategic [59] —32%34%13%8%2%10%2%54.5%45.5%
6-9 Sep 2023Resolve Strategic [67] —36%39%8%6%2%7%3%53.5%46.5%
09–12 Aug 2023Resolve Strategic [74] —34%42%11%4%1%8%1%57%43%
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [78] —32%39%10%9%0%8%2%55.5%44.5%
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [85] —33%39%10%6%1%9%2%56%44%
14-16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [94] —30%46%9%5%1%7%2%61%39%
21 April 2023 Mark Speakman is elected leader of the NSW Liberal Party
1 February - 3 April 2023Newspoll [164] 1,41435%38%10%7%——10%55%45%
25 March 2023Labor wins a minority government at the state election
12-16 March 2023Resolve Strategic—35%39%11%5%1%7%2%54.9%45.1%
15 - 19 February 2023Resolve Strategic—31%41%10%6%1%9%2%57.5%42.5%
17 - 22 January 2023Resolve Strategic—31%40%10%8%2%7%2%57.5%42.5%
30 November - 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic—33%38%12%5%3%8%2%55.5%45.5%
27 July - 3 December 2022Newspoll [164] 1,81735%38%11%6%——10%55%45%
26-30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [121] —32%41%10%6%1%8%2%57.9%42.1%
5-9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [122] —32%39%12%6%3%7%2%57.9%42.1%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [124] —29%41%9%7%3%9%3%59.4%40.6%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [128] —29%42%11%5%2%8%3%60.6%39.4%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [133] ————————46.5%53.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.5%33.4%10%4.8%4%7.6%3.7%51.4%48.6%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in New South Wales.

Victoria

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [lower-alpha 1]
L/NP ALP GRN UAP ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
31 January –22 March 2024Newspoll [164] 92634%33%16%5%——12%55%45%
31 October - 15 December 2023Newspoll [164] 91734%34%15%5%——12%55%45%
28 August - 12 October 2023Newspoll [164] 88735%36%13%4%——12%54%46%
Daniel Andrews resigns as Premier of Victoria, replaced by Jacinta Allan
22 Sept - 4 Oct 2023Resolve Strategic [59] —30%39%11%2%6%8%2%
6-9 Sep 2023Resolve Strategic [67] —32%40%13%2%3%8%2%
09–12 Aug 2023Resolve Strategic [74] —30%38%14%1%3%10%4%
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [78] —26%42%13%2%5%9%3%
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [85] —25%40%15%3%6%7%4%62.2%37.8%
14-16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [94] —25%48%12%1%4%7%2%65.7%34.3%
1 February - 3 April 2023Newspoll [164] 1,19333%41%11%4%——11%58%42%
12 - 16 March 2023Resolve Strategic—29%43%9%1%6%8%4%59.4%40.6%
15 - 19 February 2023Resolve Strategic—27%40%14%3%2%11%2%61.5%39.5%
17 - 22 January 2023Resolve Strategic—31%41%13%2%3%7%4%60%40%
30 November - 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic—27%46%11%2%2%7%5%63.3%36.7%
26 December 2022Labor wins a third term at the state election
27 July - 3 December 2022Newspoll [164] 1,44833%37%13%5%——12%57%43%
5-9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [121] —32%39%12%2%2%11%3%57.6%42.4%
5-9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [122] —30%40%10%5%4%9%3%59.6%40.4%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [124] —30%38%14%3%2%8%5%59.9%40.1%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [128] —24%42%11%3%5%10%5%63.6%36.4%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [133] ————————60.5%39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 33.1%32.9%13.7%4.7%3.8%6.5%5.3%54.8%45.2%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria.

Queensland

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [lower-alpha 1]
LNP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH LNP ALP
31 January –22 March 2024Newspoll [164] 77241%29%12%7%——11%53%47%
Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns as Premier of Queensland, replaced by Steven Miles
31 October - 15 December 2023Newspoll [164] 76441%27%12%8%——12%54%46%
28 August - 12 October 2023Newspoll [164] 88739%30%11%9%——11%52%48%
22 Sept - 4 Oct 2023Resolve Strategic [59] —34%33%11%9%1%10%1%
6-9 Sep 2023Resolve Strategic [67] —35%29%16%9%2%7%2%
09–12 Aug 2023Resolve Strategic [74] —40%28%9%8%2%10%3%
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [78] —36%33%12%6%2%10%1%
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [85] —31%38%10%11%2%7%1%44.3%55.7%
14-16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [94] —39%27%17%7%3%6%2%50.9%49.1%
1 February - 3 April 2023Newspoll [164] 99539%33%10%8%——10%50%50%
12 - 16 March 2023Resolve Strategic—24%39%14%6%1%14%2%40.3%59.7%
15 - 19 February 2023Resolve Strategic—35%39%10%9%1%0%5%46.7%53.3%
17 - 22 January 2023Resolve Strategic—30%38%11%9%1%8%2%42.5%57.5%
30 November - 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [121] —34%43%7%6%1%6%2%44.9%55.1%
27 July - 3 December 2022Newspoll [164] 1,20740%33%12%6%——9%51%49%
26-30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [121] —32%36%16%4%2%6%4%44.4%55.6%
5-9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [122] —38%31%14%6%2%7%2%49.8%50.2%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [124] —31%42%7%10%2%7%2%43.4%56.4%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [128] —31%37%16%6%2%6%3%42.5%57.5%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [133] ————————50%50%
21 May 2022 Election 39.6%27.4%12.9%7.5%5.1%2.1%5.4%54%46%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Queensland.

Western Australia

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary voting.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
31 January –22 March 2024Newspoll [164] 36834%39%8%6%—13%—49%51%
31 October - 15 December 2023Newspoll [164] 36437%37%11%5%—10%—54%46%
6–13 December 2023RedBridge [165] 1,20339%37%12%5%—7%—55.2%44.8%
28 August - 12 October 2023Newspoll [164] 62038%38%10%6%—8%—53%47%
Mark McGowan stands down as Premier of Western Australia, replaced by Roger Cook
1 February - 3 April 2023Newspoll [164] 47440%33%11%6%—14%—57%43%
Libby Mettam replaces David Honey as the WA Liberal leader
27 July - 3 December 2022Newspoll [164] 57541%33%9%7%—11%—55%45%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [133] 144———————50.5%49.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.8%34.8%12.5%4%2.3%9.6%—55%45%

South Australia

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary voting.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
31 January –22 March 2024Newspoll [164] 27833%35%11%10%—11%—54%46%
31 October - 15 December 2023Newspoll [164] 27735%38%10%6%—11%—55%45%
28 August - 12 October 2023Newspoll [164] 36230%40%10%11%—9%—57%43%
1 February - 3 April 2023Newspoll [164] 36235%38%12%5%—10%—56%44%
27 July - 3 December 2022Newspoll [164] 44935%40%12%6%—7%—57%43%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [133] 103———————60.5%39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 35.54%34.46%12.77%4.83%3.89%8.51%—53.97%46.03%

Tasmania

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 August - 12 October 2023Newspoll [164] 36625%30%13%4%——27%57%43%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [133] ————————63%37%
21 May 2022 Election 32.9%27.3%12%4%1.8%11.2%10.8%54.3%45.7%

Northern Territory

Graphical summary

Polling

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [lower-alpha 1]
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
16 - 18 November 2023Redbridge Group [167] 60122.2%40.4%11.1%11.7%7.2%7.4%43.9%56.1%
21 May 2022 Election 38.2%29.4%13.1%5.4%1.3%12.7%55.5%44.5%

Individual seat polling

Occasionally, opinion polling is conducted in individual electoral divisions.

New South Wales

Mackellar

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTHUND IND LIB
5 February 2024 uComms [lower-alpha 2] 602±3.85%35.3%30.4%13.2%5.8%4.5%10.8%54.0%46.0%
21 May 2022 Election 41.4%38.1%8.6%6.1%6.1%—52.5%47.5%

Wentworth

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTHUND IND LIB
5 February 2024 uComms [lower-alpha 2] 643±3.85%35.5%32.1%13.1%10.0%2.9%6.3%57.0%43.0%
21 May 2022 Election 40.5%35.8%10.7%8.3%4.6%—54.2%45.8%

Cook

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND OTH LIB GRN ALP
28 March 2024 uComms [lower-alpha 2] 914± 3.6%53%—17%12%10%65%35%—
21 May 2022 Election 55.3%25.0%9.9%—9.8%62.4%—37.6%

Victoria

Kooyong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTHUND IND LIB
5 February 2024 uComms [lower-alpha 2] 647±3.9%36.8%32.5%12.1%6.8%2.0%9.7%56.0%44.0%
24-25 July 2023 uComms [lower-alpha 2] 821±3.4%40.3%31.6%12.4%5.6%2.9%7.2%51.0%49.0%
21 May 2022 Election 42.7%40.3%6.9%6.3%3.8%—52.9%47.1%

Dunkley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN LBT OTH ALP LIB
15-22 February 2024YouGov [168] 394± 6.1%33%40%9%3%15%49%51%
5-6 February 2024 uComms [lower-alpha 2] 626± 3.9%40.1%39.3%8.2%1.6%10.8%52.0%48.0%
21 May 2022 Election 40.2%32.5%10.3%2.5%16.9%56.3%43.7%


See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Some polling forms do not release two-party-preferred results. Results shown for polls conducted by these firms are manually calculated using preference flows in 2022. [166]
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sponsored by the Australia Institute

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References

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  2. 1 2 Crowe, David (21 April 2024). "Labor vote falls to new low as Australians buckle under cost-of-living pressure". The Sydney Morning Herald .
  3. ↑ "ALP regains two-party preferred lead as Coalition loses ground: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%". Roy Morgan . 8 April 2024.
  4. 1 2 Benson, Simon (21 April 2024). "Newspoll: Voters back plan but no PM reward". The Australian .
  5. 1 2 "Labor resumes decline, marked down on key issues". Australian Financial Review. 2024-04-14. Retrieved 2024-04-14.
  6. ↑ "Swing to Coalition continues as two-party preferred lead over ALP increases: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%". Roy Morgan . 15 April 2024.
  7. ↑ "Coalition takes two-party preferred lead over ALP after support for One Nation surges: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%". Roy Morgan . 8 April 2024.
  8. ↑ "ALP leads on two-party preferred support on the back of high Greens primary vote: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%". Roy Morgan . 2 April 2024.
  9. 1 2 "A quarter of Australians say celebrating Jesus is the most important part of Easter". YouGov Australia. 28 March 2024.
  10. 1 2 Crowe, David (25 March 2024). "PM's personal rating slips as frustration with major parties grows". The Sydney Morning Herald .
  11. ↑ "Federal voting intention: Support for the ALP and L-NP Coalition is even in late March – ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%". Roy Morgan . 25 March 2024.
  12. 1 2 Benson, Simon (24 March 2024). "Newspoll: Labor on slide as new year reset fades". The Australian . Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  13. ↑ "Federal voting intention unchanged in mid-March ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%". Roy Morgan . 18 March 2024.
  14. 1 2 Coorey, Phillip (11 March 2024). "PM shows signs of recovery as Labor 'stops the rot'". Australian Financial Review . Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  15. ↑ "ALP support drops after Dunkley by-election: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%". Roy Morgan . 12 March 2024.
  16. 1 2 "86% of Australians support the "right to disconnect"". YouGov Australia. 8 March 2024.
  17. ↑ "ALP increases lead Federally as the Albanese Government easily wins the Dunkley by-election". Roy Morgan . 4 March 2024.
  18. ↑ "ALP and Coalition can't be split Federally as parties contest Dunkley by-election: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%". Roy Morgan . 26 February 2024.
  19. 1 2 Crowe, David (25 February 2024). "Coalition takes primary vote lead in RPM poll for first time since election". The Sydney Morning Herald .
  20. 1 2 Benson, Simon (25 February 2024). "Newspoll: Tax cuts fail to lift PM's fortunes". The Australian . Retrieved 25 February 2024.
  21. ↑ Coorey, Phillip (19 February 2024). "Labor unscathed but unrewarded for tax U-turn". Australian Financial Review . Retrieved 19 February 2024.
  22. ↑ "ALP maintains an election winning lead in mid-February as parties set to contest Dunkley by-election: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%". Roy Morgan . 19 February 2024.
  23. ↑ "ALP maintains an election winning lead over the Coalition in mid-February: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%". Roy Morgan . 12 February 2024.
  24. 1 2 "69% of Australian voters favour the changes to the stage 3 tax cut proposal". YouGov Australia. 8 February 2024.
  25. ↑ "Federal vote intention and public opinion 30 January to 7 February, 2024" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 12 February 2024.
  26. ↑ "ALP support jumps back strongly (up 2.5%) after detail of Stage 3 tax cuts is revealed: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%". Roy Morgan . 5 February 2024.
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