Next Cantabrian regional election

Next Cantabrian regional election

←  2023 No later than 23 May 2027
All 35 seats in the Parliament of Cantabria 18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader María José Sáenz de Buruaga Miguel Ángel Revilla Pablo Zuloaga Party PP PRC PSOE Leader since 22 January 2019 1983 16 July 2017 Last election 15 seats, 35.8% 8 seats, 20.8% 8 seats, 20.6% Current seats 15 8 8 Seats needed 3 10 10   Leader Leticia Díaz Party Vox Leader since 17 January 2023 Last election 4 seats, 11.1% Current seats 4 Seats needed 14
Incumbent President María José Sáenz de Buruaga PP

The next Cantabrian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 12th Parliament of the autonomous community of Cantabria. All 35 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Cantabria is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Cantabria, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Cantabrian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Cantabria and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 35 members of the Parliament of Cantabria are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. ^{[1] [2]}

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Cantabria expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Parliament are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 23 May 2027. ^{[1] [2] [3]}

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Cantabria and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms. ^[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	15	15
	Regionalist Parliamentary Group		PRC	8	8
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	8	8
	Vox Parliamentary Group		Vox	4	4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Cantabria, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [3]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		María José Sáenz de Buruaga	Conservatism Christian democracy	35.78%	15	Y
	PRC	List Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC)		Miguel Ángel Revilla	Regionalism Centrism	20.79%	8	N
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Pablo Zuloaga	Social democracy	20.61%	8	N
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Leticia Díaz	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	11.08%	4	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 18 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Cantabria.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout		PRC						SALF	Lead
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	50.7	42.8 (17)	–	31.0 (12)	9.9 (4)	2.7 (0)	0.9 (0)	3.2 (0)	5.7 (2)	11.8
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	69.9	42.1 (15)	–	33.3 (12)	14.1 (5)	[a]	–	8.5 (3)	–	8.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 1]	28 May–29 Jun 2023	1,000	?	37.1 15	18.8 7	22.1 9	11.4 4	4.0 0	1.3 0	–	–	15.0
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	65.3	35.8 15	20.8 8	20.6 8	11.1 4	4.1 0	2.3 0	–	–	15.0

Notes

1. Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "ElectoPanel Cantabria (2JL): el PRC continúa a la baja". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 July 2023.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 8/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Cantabria (Organic Law 8) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 18 September 2017.
2. Ley 5/1987, de 27 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Cantabria (Law 5) (in Spanish). 27 March 1987. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
3. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.