Next Aragonese regional election

Next Aragonese regional election

←  2023 No later than 27 June 2027
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon 34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Jorge Azcón Mayte Pérez Alejandro Nolasco Party PP PSOE Vox Leader since 19 December 2021 23 June 2023 23 December 2022 Leader's seat Zaragoza Teruel Teruel Last election 28 seats, 35.5% 23 seats, 29.6% 7 seats, 11.2% Current seats 28 23 7 Seats needed 6 11 27   Leader José Luis Soro Tomás Guitarte Andoni Corrales Party CHA Existe Podemos–AV Leader since 10 February 2012 28 January 2023 23 June 2023 Leader's seat Zaragoza Teruel Zaragoza Last election 3 seats, 5.1% 3 seats, 5.0% 1 seat, 4.0% Current seats 3 3 1 Seats needed 31 31 33   Leader Álvaro Sanz Alberto Izquierdo Party IU PAR Leader since 27 May 2017 10 March 2023 Leader's seat Zaragoza Teruel Last election 1 seat, 3.1% 1 seat, 2.1% Current seats 1 1 Seats needed 33 33
Incumbent President Jorge Azcón PP

The next Aragonese regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, the election will be held on Sunday, 23 May 2027, simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province does not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one). ^{[1] [2]}

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency is entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
35	Zaragoza
18	Huesca
14	Teruel

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies. ^[3]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree shall be published in the BOA no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 27 June 2027. ^{[1] [2] [4]}

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time. ^[5]

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group in the Cortes of Aragon		PP	28	28
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	23	23
	Vox Parliamentary Group in Aragon		Vox	7	7
	Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group		CHA	3	3
	Aragon–Teruel Exists Parliamentary Group		TE	3	3
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		Podemos	1	3
			IU	1
			PAR	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [4]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP) Aragonese People–Aragonese Platform (Aragoneses)		Jorge Azcón	Conservatism Christian democracy	35.51%	28	Y
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Mayte Pérez	Social democracy	29.55%	23	N	[6] [7]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Alejandro Nolasco	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	11.25%	7	Y
	CHA	List Aragonese Union (CHA)		José Luis Soro	Aragonese nationalism Eco-socialism	5.10%	3	N
	Existe	List Teruel Exists (TE) Aragon Exists (AE) Empty Spain (EV)		Tomás Guitarte	Localism Ruralism	4.96%	3	N
	Podemos–AV	List We Can (Podemos) Green Alliance (AV)		Andoni Corrales	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	4.02%	1	N	[8] [9]
	IU	List United Left of Aragon (IU) – Communist Party of Aragon (PCE–A) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR)		Álvaro Sanz	Socialism Communism	3.13%	1	N
	PAR	List Aragonese Party (PAR) Aragonese Liberal Platform (PLA)		Alberto Izquierdo	Regionalism Centrism	2.09%	1	Y

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 May 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					Existe					SALF	Lead
SocioMétrica/El Español [p 1]	1–6 Oct 2024	1,500	?	39.9 33	29.7 24	9.0 6	4.0 1	4.2 3	2.0 0	2.5 0	1.4 0	2.7 0	–	10.2
NC Report/La Razón [p 2]	15–18 Jul 2024	1,000	68.9	40.8 32	30.4 23	8.9 6	5.2 3	3.9 2	2.6 0	3.6 1	1.4 0	–	–	10.4
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón [p 3]	12–15 Jul 2024	1,600	68.1	40.6 30	35.1 26	9.8 6	5.5 3	2.7 2	0.9 0	1.1 0	2.4 0	–	–	5.5
Data10/OKDiario [p 4]	12–13 Jul 2024	1,500	?	37.4 31	31.6 26	10.1 7	4.1 1	4.1 2	–	–	–	–	–	5.4
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	51.1	37.1 (28)	30.3 (23)	11.5 (8)	[a]	2.9 (1)	3.1 (1)	[a]	–	5.1 (3)	5.1 (3)	6.8
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón [p 5]	10–16 Apr 2024	2,400	68.6	40.2 31	30.7 23	12.0 8	5.4 3	2.7 2	1.7 0	2.6 0	1.0 0	–	–	9.5
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	70.7	36.3 (26)	31.1 (23)	14.6 (9)	[a]	2.9 (2)	[a]	[a]	–	12.3 (7)	–	5.2
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	66.5	35.5 28	29.6 23	11.2 7	5.1 3	5.0 3	4.0 1	3.1 1	2.1 1	–	–	5.9

Notes

1. Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP, en máximos históricos en Aragón: Azcón está a 1 solo escaño de la mayoría absoluta y Chueca la tiene en Zaragoza". El Español (in Spanish). 12 October 2024.
2. "El PP superaría su tope histórico de 2011 en Aragón y estaría a dos escaños de la absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 5 August 2024.
3. "El bipartidismo sigue al alza en Aragón tras la ruptura de Vox y la crisis de la izquierda". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 21 July 2024.
4. "El PP amplía su mayoría en Aragón pero Vox no pierde escaños y conserva la llave del Gobierno regional". OKDiario (in Spanish). 15 July 2024.
5. "El PP lograría un resultado histórico en Aragón con 31 diputados y el PSOE mantendría los 23". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 5/2007, de 20 de abril, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Aragón (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 20 April 2007. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
2. Ley 2/1987, de 16 de febrero, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Law 2) (in Spanish). 12 February 1987. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
3. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
5. "Grupos parlamentarios". Cortes of Aragon (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 April 2024.
6. Gascón Tella, Raúl (6 June 2023). "Lambán seguirá al frente del PSOE hasta 2025 pero no liderará la oposición a Azcón". Aragón Digital (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 August 2024.
7. "Mayte Pérez será portavoz del PSOE, que propone a Elisa Sancho y Anadón para las Cortes" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. EFE. 22 June 2023. Retrieved 10 November 2024.
8. "Maru Díaz deja de ser Coordinadora de Podemos en Aragón ante el "nefasto" resultado del 28M y renuncia a ser diputada". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 8 June 2023. Retrieved 5 August 2024.
9. "Andoni Corrales toma el acta de diputado de Podemos en las Cortes y le llueven las críticas". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 22 June 2023. Retrieved 10 November 2024.