Next Canarian regional election

Next Canarian regional election

←  2023 No later than 27 June 2027
All 70 seats in the Parliament of the Canary Islands 36 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader TBD Fernando Clavijo Manuel Domínguez Party PSOE CCa PP Leader since TBD 12 September 2014 23 January 2022 Leader's seat TBD Regional Regional Last election 23 seats, 27.2% 19 seats, 22.1% 15 seats, 19.3% Current seats 23 19 15 Seats needed 13 17 21   Leader Román Rodríguez Nicasio Galván Casimiro Curbelo Party NC–BC Vox ASG Leader since 26 February 2005 29 December 2022 6 March 2015 Leader's seat None Gran Canaria La Gomera Last election 5 seats, 7.9% 4 seats, 7.9% 3 seats, 0.7% Current seats 5 4 3 Seats needed 31 32 33
Incumbent President Fernando Clavijo CCa

The next Canarian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of the Canary Islands. All 70 seats in the Parliament will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, the election will be held on Sunday, 23 May 2027, simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Canary Islands is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Canary Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Canarian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Canary Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 70 members of the Parliament of the Canary Islands are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of 15 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties can also enter the seat distribution as long as they reach four percent regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of El Hierro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, La Gomera, La Palma, Lanzarote and Tenerife, as well as an additional constituency comprising the whole archipelago, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats: ^{[1] [2]}

Seats	Constituencies
15	Gran Canaria, Tenerife
9	Regional
8	Fuerteventura, La Palma, Lanzarote
4	La Gomera
3	El Hierro

Election date

The term of the Parliament of the Canary Islands expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Canary Islands (BOC), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree shall be published in the BOC no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 27 June 2027. ^{[1] [2] [3]}

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Canary Islands and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time. ^[4]

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Canarian Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	23	23
	Canarian Nationalist Parliamentary Group (CCa)		CCa	19	19
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	15	15
	New Canaries–Canarian Bloc Parliamentary Group (NC–BC)		NC–BC	5	5
	Vox Parliamentary Group		Vox	4	4
	Gomera Socialist Group Parliamentary Group (ASG)		ASG	3	3
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		AHI	1	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^[3]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		TBD	Social democracy	27.17%	23	N
	CCa	List Canarian Coalition (CCa)		Fernando Clavijo	Regionalism Canarian nationalism Centrism	22.08%	19	Y
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Manuel Domínguez	Conservatism Christian democracy	19.33%	15	Y
	NC–BC	List New Canaries–Canarian Bloc (NC–BC)		Román Rodríguez	Canarian nationalism Social democracy	7.93%	5	N
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Nicasio Galván	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	7.86%	4	N
	ASG	List Gomera Socialist Group (ASG)		Casimiro Curbelo	Insularism Social democracy	0.74%	3	Y
	AHI	List Independent Herrenian Group (AHI) Canarian Coalition (CCa) [lower-alpha 1] New Canaries–Canarian Bloc (NC–BC) [lower-alpha 1] Frontera Union (UF)		Raúl Acosta	Insularism Canarian nationalism Centrism	0.18%	1	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 36 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout													Lead
ElectoPanel/GMG [p 1]	1–24 May 2024	1,207	?	25.7 22	23.9 21	22.0 16	8.5 5	7.3 2	1.0 0	2.7 0	1.5 0	0.7 3	0.4 0	0.2 1	1.5 0	1.8
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	58.2	33.3 (27)	11.4 (8)	30.4 (24)	4.5 (1)	7.6 (4)	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	–	–	–	–	10.5 (6)	2.9
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	52.0	27.2 23	22.1 19	19.3 15	7.9 5	7.9 4	3.9 0	3.2 0	1.9 0	0.7 3	0.4 0	0.2 1	–	5.1

Notes

1. In El Hierro.
2. Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Sondeo en Canarias un año después del 28M: CC y PP apuntalan su mayoría con más votos y escaños". Atlántico Hoy (in Spanish). 28 May 2024.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 1/2018, de 5 de noviembre, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Canarias (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 5 November 2018. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
2. Ley 1/2022, de 11 de mayo, de Elecciones al Parlamento de Canarias (Law 1) (in Spanish). 11 May 2022. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
3. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
4. "Los grupos parlamentarios". Parliament of the Canary Islands (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 May 2024.