Next Basque regional election

Last updated

Next Basque regional election
Flag of the Basque Country.svg
  2024 No later than 21 May 2028

All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Imanol Pradales 2024 (cropped).jpg Pello Otxandiano 2024b (cropped).jpg Eneko Andueza 2024 (cropped).jpg
Leader Imanol Pradales Pello Otxandiano Eneko Andueza
Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu PSE–EE (PSOE)
Leader since27 January 202411 December 202330 October 2021
Leader's seat Biscay Álava Biscay
Last election27 seats, 34.8%27 seats, 32.1%12 seats, 14.1%
Current seats272712
Seats needed Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 11 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 11 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 26

  Javier de Andres 2024 (cropped).jpg Portrait placeholder.svg Amaia Martinez 2024 (cropped).jpg
Leader Javier de Andrés TBD Amaia Martínez
Party PP Sumar Vox
Leader since4 November 20233 August 2020
Leader's seat Álava Álava
Last election7 seats, 9.2%1 seat, 3.3%1 seat, 2.0%
Current seats711
Seats needed Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 31 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 37 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg 37

Incumbent Lehendakari

Imanol Pradales
EAJ/PNV



The next Basque regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 21 May 2028, to elect the 14th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Contents

Overview

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari. [1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy. [1] [2]

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 21 April 2024, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 21 April 2028. The election decree is required to be published in the BOPV no later than 28 March 2028 with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 21 May 2028. [1] [2]

The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament is to be dissolved and a fresh election called. [3]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time of dissolution. [4]

Current parliamentary composition
GroupsPartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group EAJ/PNV 2727
EH Bildu Parliamentary Group EH Bildu 2727
Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group PSE–EE (PSOE) 1212
Basque People's Parliamentary Group PP 77
Mixed Group EzAn–IU 12
Vox 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. [2] [5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.
Votes (%)Seats
EAJ/PNV
List
Imanol Pradales 2024 (cropped).jpg Imanol Pradales Basque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy
34.82%27Yes check.svg
EH Bildu
List
Pello Otxandiano 2024b (cropped).jpg Pello Otxandiano Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism
32.13%27X mark.svg
PSE–EE
(PSOE)
Eneko Andueza 2024 (cropped).jpg Eneko Andueza Social democracy 14.09%12Yes check.svg
PP
List
Javier de Andres 2024 (cropped).jpg Javier de Andrés Conservatism
Christian democracy
9.18%7X mark.svg
Sumar Portrait placeholder.svg TBD Progressivism
Left-wing populism
Green politics
3.31%1X mark.svg
Vox
List
Amaia Martinez 2024 (cropped).jpg Amaia Martínez Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism
2.03%1X mark.svg

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout PNV Icono de EH Bildu (2023).svg Logotipo PSE-EE.svg Logo del PP (2022).svg Sumar icon.svg Logo de Elkarrekin Podemos (2024).svg VOX logo.svg Lead
Ikerfel/GPS [p 1] 5–8 Nov 20243,03060.235.2
28
32.0
27
14.6
13
9.1
7
2.6
0
2.2
0
2.0
0
3.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 2] 29 Sep–27 Oct 20241,450?34.0
27
31.8
27
12.4
10
9.5
7
3.4
1
4.5
3
1.7
0
2.2
2024 EP election 9 Jun 202448.822.4
(17)
26.3
(22)
26.0
(23)
11.6
(9)
3.3
(2)
3.2
(1)
2.7
(1)
0.3
2024 regional election 21 Apr 202460.034.8
27
32.1
27
14.1
12
9.2
7
3.3
1
2.2
0
2.0
1
2.7

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2005 Basque regional election</span>

The 2005 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 17 April 2005, to elect the 8th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Basque regional election</span>

The 2009 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 1 March 2009, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Galicia. It would be the first time that the elections for two of the Spanish "historical regions"—namely, those comprising Andalusia, Catalonia, Galicia and the Basque Country itself—were held simultaneously. This would evolve into an unwritten convention in subsequent years, with Basque and Galician elections being held concurrently in 2012, 2016 and 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2001 Basque regional election</span>

The 2001 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 13 May 2001, to elect the 7th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1998 Basque regional election</span>

The 1998 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 25 October 1998, to elect the 6th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1994 Basque regional election</span>

The 1994 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 23 October 1994, to elect the 5th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1990 Basque regional election</span>

The 1990 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 28 October 1990, to elect the 4th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1986 Basque regional election</span>

The 1986 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 30 November 1986, to elect the 3rd Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1984 Basque regional election</span>

The 1984 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 26 February 1984, to elect the 2nd Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1980 Basque regional election</span>

The 1980 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 9 March 1980, to elect the 1st Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 60 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1994 Andalusian regional election</span>

The 1994 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 12 June 1994, to elect the 4th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 1994 European Parliament election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 Basque regional election</span>

The 2012 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 21 October 2012, to elect the 10th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Galicia. Lehendakari Patxi López announced the parliament's dissolution half a year ahead of schedule as a result of the People's Party (PP) withdrawing their support from his government, prompting Galician president Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who had been scheduling a snap election in Galicia to be held at some point throughout late 2012, to make his decision to have a simultaneous vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Basque regional election</span>

The 2016 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 25 September 2016, to elect the 11th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Galicia. Lehendakari Iñigo Urkullu announced that the election would be held one month ahead of schedule, on 25 September 2016, based on the "climate of ungovernability" affecting national politics as a result of the ongoing Spanish government formation negotiations, intending to move the regional election as far away as possible from a possible new general election. This prompted Galician president Alberto Núñez Feijóo to hold the Galician regional election in the same date.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1987 Navarrese regional election</span>

The 1987 Navarrese regional election was held on Wednesday, 10 June 1987, to elect the 2nd Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 1987 European Parliament election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1999 Navarrese regional election</span>

The 1999 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 13 June 1999, to elect the 5th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 1999 European Parliament election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Álava (Basque Parliament constituency)</span>

Álava is one of the three constituencies represented in the Basque Parliament, the regional legislature of the Basque Autonomous Community. The constituency currently elects 25 deputies. Its boundaries correspond to those of the Spanish province of Álava. The electoral system uses the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation, with a minimum threshold of three percent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Gipuzkoa (Basque Parliament constituency)</span>

Gipuzkoa is one of the three constituencies represented in the Basque Parliament, the regional legislature of the Basque Autonomous Community. The constituency currently elects 25 deputies. Its boundaries correspond to those of the Spanish province of Gipuzkoa. The electoral system uses the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation, with a minimum threshold of three percent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Biscay (Basque Parliament constituency)</span> Government body in Spain

Biscay is one of the three constituencies represented in the Basque Parliament, the regional legislature of the Basque Autonomous Community. The constituency currently elects 25 deputies. Its boundaries correspond to those of the Spanish province of Biscay. The electoral system uses the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation, with a minimum threshold of three percent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Basque regional election</span>

The 2020 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 12 July 2020, to elect the 12th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was initially scheduled for 5 April 2020 but was postponed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was held simultaneously with a regional election in Galicia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Basque regional election</span>

The 2024 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 21 April 2024, to elect the 13th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Next Galician regional election</span>

The next Galician regional election will be held no later than Saturday, 25 March 2028, to elect the 13th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Galicia. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2024)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 15 November 2024.
  2. "ElectoPanel Euskadi (oct'24): PNV y EH Bildu empatan en escaños, Podemos se come a Sumar". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 October 2024.
Other
  1. 1 2 3 Ley Orgánica 3/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para el País Vasco (Organic Law 3) (in Spanish). 18 December 1979. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  2. 1 2 3 Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco (Law 5) (in Spanish). 15 June 1990. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno (Law 7) (in Spanish). 30 June 1981. Retrieved 9 November 2024.
  4. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (desde 1980)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2024.
  5. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 9 November 2024.