Next Basque regional election

Next Basque regional election

←  2024 No later than 21 May 2028
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament 38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Imanol Pradales Pello Otxandiano Eneko Andueza Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu PSE–EE (PSOE) Leader since 27 January 2024 11 December 2023 30 October 2021 Leader's seat Biscay Álava Biscay Last election 27 seats, 34.8% 27 seats, 32.1% 12 seats, 14.1% Current seats 27 27 12 Seats needed 11 11 26   Leader Javier de Andrés Alba García Amaia Martínez Party PP Sumar Vox Leader since 4 November 2023 9 January 2024 3 August 2020 Leader's seat Álava — Álava Last election 7 seats, 9.2% 1 seat, 3.3% 1 seat, 2.0% Current seats 7 1 1 Seats needed 31 37 37
Incumbent Lehendakari Imanol Pradales EAJ/PNV

The next Basque regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 21 May 2028, to elect the 14th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari. ^[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy. ^{[1] [2]}

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 21 April 2024, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 21 April 2028. The election decree is required to be published in the BOPV no later than 28 March 2028 with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 21 May 2028. ^{[1] [2]}

The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament is to be dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[3]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time of dissolution. ^[4]

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group		EAJ/PNV	27	27
	EH Bildu Parliamentary Group		EH Bildu	27	27
	Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group		PSE–EE (PSOE)	12	12
	Basque People's Parliamentary Group		PP	7	7
	Mixed Group		EzAn–IU	1	2
			Vox	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [5]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	EAJ/PNV	List Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)		Imanol Pradales	Basque nationalism Christian democracy Social democracy	34.82%	27	Y
	EH Bildu	List Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) – Create (Sortu) – Basque Solidarity (EA) – Alternative (Alternatiba)		Pello Otxandiano	Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism	32.13%	27	N
	PSE–EE (PSOE)	List Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE))		Eneko Andueza	Social democracy	14.09%	12	Y
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Javier de Andrés	Conservatism Christian democracy	9.18%	7	N
	Sumar	List Unite Movement (SMR) Plural Left–United Left (EzAn–IU) – Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Greens Equo (VQ) More Basque Country–Build the Basque Country (ME/EE)		Alba García	Progressivism Left-wing populism Green politics	3.31%	1	N	[6]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Amaia Martínez	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	2.03%	1	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	PNV							Lead
Ikerfel/GPS [p 1]	28–31 Ene 2025	3,030	58.2	35.3 28	31.9 27	14.0 11	9.2 8	2.5 0	2.5 0	2.0 1	3.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 2]	29 Dec–28 Jan 2025	1,450	?	34.5 28	31.9 28	12.9 10	9.1 7	2.9 0	3.5 2	1.6 0	2.6
Ikerfel/GPS [p 3]	5–8 Nov 2024	3,030	60.2	35.2 28	32.0 27	14.6 13	9.1 7	2.6 0	2.2 0	2.0 0	3.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía [p 4]	29 Sep–27 Oct 2024	1,450	?	34.0 27	31.8 27	12.4 10	9.5 7	3.4 1	4.5 3	1.7 0	2.2
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	48.8	22.4 (17)	26.3 (22)	26.0 (23)	11.6 (9)	3.3 (2)	3.2 (1)	2.7 (1)	0.3
2024 regional election	21 Apr 2024	—	60.0	34.8 27	32.1 27	14.1 12	9.2 7	3.3 1	2.2 0	2.0 1	2.7

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PNV							?	N	Lead
Ikerfel/GPS [p 3]	5–8 Nov 2024	3,030	22.9	20.1	7.7	1.8	1.0	1.6	0.8	29.4	11.6	2.8
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	13.1	13.3	11.4	5.8	1.7	1.6	1.4	—	49.1	0.2
2024 regional election	21 Apr 2024	—	21.6	20.0	8.7	5.7	2.0	1.4	1.2	—	37.5	1.6

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Febrero 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 7 February 2025.
2. "EP Euskadi (31ene): el PNV sube y seguiría como primera fuerza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 January 2025.
3. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2024)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 15 November 2024.
4. "ElectoPanel Euskadi (oct'24): PNV y EH Bildu empatan en escaños, Podemos se come a Sumar". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 October 2024.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 3/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para el País Vasco (Organic Law 3) (in Spanish). 18 December 1979. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
2. Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco (Law 5) (in Spanish). 15 June 1990. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno (Law 7) (in Spanish). 30 June 1981. Retrieved 9 November 2024.
4. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (desde 1980)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2024.
5. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 9 November 2024.
6. "Alba García Martín, elegida coordinadora general de Sumar Mugimendua con un 85% de apoyo". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Bilbao. Europa Press. 30 November 2024. Retrieved 19 December 2024.