Next Basque regional election

Next Basque regional election

←  2024 No later than 21 May 2028
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament 38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Imanol Pradales Pello Otxandiano Eneko Andueza Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu PSE–EE (PSOE) Leader since 27 January 2024 11 December 2023 30 October 2021 Leader's seat Biscay Álava Biscay Last election 27 seats, 34.8% 27 seats, 32.1% 12 seats, 14.1% Current seats 27 27 12 Seats needed 11 11 26   Leader Javier de Andrés Alba García Amaia Martínez Party PP Sumar Vox Leader since 4 November 2023 9 January 2024 3 August 2020 Leader's seat Álava — Álava Last election 7 seats, 9.2% 1 seat, 3.3% 1 seat, 2.0% Current seats 7 1 1 Seats needed 31 37 37
Incumbent Lehendakari Imanol Pradales EAJ/PNV

A regional election will be held in the Basque Country no later than 21 May 2028 to elect the 14th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

Under the 1979 Statute of Autonomy, the Basque Parliament is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a lehendakari. ^[1] The electoral and procedural rules are supplemented by national law provisions. ^[2]

Date

The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication. ^[3] The previous election was held on 21 April 2024, which means that the chamber's term will expire on 21 April 2028. The election decree shall be published in the BOPV no later than 28 March 2028, setting the latest possible date for election day on 21 May 2028.

The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. ^[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament's reconvening, the chamber is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[5]

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament is based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and with full political rights, provided that they have not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence. ^[6]

The Basque Parliament has 75 seats. All are elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, each of which is assigned a fixed number of 25 seats to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. ^[7] The use of this electoral method may result in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution. ^[8]

The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term will be filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ^[9]

Current parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time. ^{[10] [11]}

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group		EAJ/PNV	27	27
	EH Bildu Parliamentary Group		EH Bildu	27	27
	Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group		PSE–EE (PSOE)	12	12
	Basque People's Parliamentary Group		PP	7	7
	Mixed Group		EzAn–IU	1	2
			Vox	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ^[12] Amendments in 2024 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system. ^[13]

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	EAJ/PNV	List Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)		Imanol Pradales	Basque nationalism Christian democracy Social democracy	34.8%	27
	EH Bildu	List Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) – Create (Sortu) – Basque Solidarity (EA) – Alternative (Alternatiba)		Pello Otxandiano	Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism	32.1%	27
	PSE–EE (PSOE)	List Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE))		Eneko Andueza	Social democracy	14.1%	12
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Javier de Andrés	Conservatism Christian democracy	9.2%	7
	Sumar	List Unite Movement (SMR) Plural Left–United Left (EzAn–IU) – Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK) – The Dawn Marxist Organization (La Aurora (OM)) – Republican Left (IR) Greens Equo (VQ)		Alba García	Progressivism Left-wing populism Green politics	3.3%	1		[14]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Amaia Martínez	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	2.0%	1

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout								Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 1]	7–16 Apr 2026	1,411	?	34.7 27/28	32.1 25/27	14.0 12/13	8.5 6/7	3.4 1/2	–	2.7 1/2	2.6
Ikerfel/GPS [p 2]	23–26 Mar 2026	3,030	59.8	35.3 28	32.2 27	14.3 12	8.7 7	2.3 0	2.0 0	2.9 1	3.1
Aztiker/EH Bildu [p 3]	24 Dec 2025	2,990	?	? 27	? 28	? 11	? 7	–	–	? 2	?
Ikerfel/GPS [p 4]	11–14 Nov 2025	3,030	60.2	36.2 29	31.7 27	13.6 11	8.4 6	3.0 1	1.9 0	3.2 1	4.5
Ikerfel/GPS [p 5]	17–20 Jun 2025	3,030	59.3	36.1 28	31.3 28	13.9 11	8.9 7	2.5 0	2.0 0	3.1 1	4.8
NC Report/La Razón [p 6]	16–31 May 2025	350	?	? 26	? 28	? 11	? 8	–	? 1	? 1	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 1]	Feb 2025	?	?	34.5	32.5	14.1	9.0	–	–	–	2.0
Ikerfel/GPS [p 7]	28–31 Jan 2025	3,030	58.2	35.3 28	32.0 27	14.0 11	9.2 8	2.5 0	2.5 0	2.0 1	3.3
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 8]	29 Dec–28 Jan 2025	1,450	?	34.5 28	31.9 28	12.9 10	9.1 7	2.9 0	3.5 2	1.6 0	2.6
Ikerfel/GPS [p 9]	5–8 Nov 2024	3,030	60.2	35.2 28	32.0 27	14.6 13	9.1 7	2.6 0	2.2 0	2.0 0	3.2
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 10]	29 Sep–27 Oct 2024	1,450	?	34.0 27	31.8 27	12.4 10	9.5 7	3.4 1	4.5 3	1.7 0	2.2
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—N/a	48.8	22.4 (17)	26.3 (22)	26.0 (23)	11.6 (9)	3.3 (2)	3.2 (1)	2.7 (1)	0.3
2024 regional election	21 Apr 2024	—N/a	60.0	34.8 27	32.1 27	14.1 12	9.2 7	3.3 1	2.2 0	2.0 1	2.7

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PNV							?	N	Lead
Ikerfel/GPS [p 2]	23–26 Mar 2026	3,030	20.9	18.3	6.7	2.2	0.6	1.3	1.7	32.8	11.8	2.6
Ikerfel/GPS [p 4]	11–14 Nov 2025	3,030	24.0	18.9	6.5	2.2	1.3	1.5	2.0	30.4	10.7	5.1
Ikerfel/GPS [p 5]	17–20 Jun 2025	3,030	23.2	18.2	7.1	2.5	0.8	1.3	1.9	29.6	12.4	5.0
CIS [p 11]	7–31 Mar 2025	1,023	27.2	18.8	12.8	3.9	1.4	1.8	2.7	20.3	7.4	8.4
Ikerfel/GPS [p 7]	28–31 Jan 2025	3,030	22.1	19.6	6.9	2.3	0.9	1.4	0.7	28.1	14.1	2.5
Ikerfel/GPS [p 9]	5–8 Nov 2024	3,030	22.9	20.1	7.7	1.8	1.0	1.6	0.8	29.4	11.6	2.8
2024 EP election [a]	9 Jun 2024	—N/a	13.1	13.3	11.4	5.8	1.7	1.6	1.4	—N/a	49.1	0.2
2024 regional election [a]	21 Apr 2024	—N/a	21.6	20.0	8.7	5.7	2.0	1.4	1.2	—N/a	37.5	1.6

Preferred Lehendakari

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become lehendakari.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Pradales PNV	Otxan. EH Bildu	Andueza PSE–EE	De Andrés PP
CIS [b] [p 11]	7–31 Mar 2025	1,023	25.0	11.4	7.3	2.1	7.3	47.0	13.6

Notes

1. Does not include non-resident citizens.
2. Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PNV "confiable" se lleva a 11.155 votos socialistas desencantados con Sánchez y tapona el 'sorpasso' de la izquierda 'abertzale' de Otegi". El Mundo (in Spanish). 22 April 2026.
2. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco: Previsión de voto (abril de 2026)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 13 April 2026.
3. "EH Bildu ganaría en la CAV y subiría en Nafarroa, según un sondeo de Aztiker". La Razón (in Spanish). 24 December 2025.
4. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 1 December 2025.
5. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Junio 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 27 June 2025.
6. "Macroencuesta Nc Report (II): Los socios sufren la corrupción". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 June 2025.
7. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Febrero 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 7 February 2025.
8. "EP Euskadi (31ene): el PNV sube y seguiría como primera fuerza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 January 2025.
9. "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2024)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 15 November 2024.
10. "ElectoPanel Euskadi (oct'24): PNV y EH Bildu empatan en escaños, Podemos se come a Sumar". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 October 2024.
11. "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. País Vasco (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.

Other

1. Statute (1979) , arts. 25 & 27–28.
2. LEPV (1990) , final prov. 1.
3. Statute (1979) , art. 26; LEPV (1990) , art. 46.
4. LGV (1981) , arts. 7 & 50–51.
5. LGV (1981) , art. 6.
6. Statute (1979) , art. 26; LEPV (1990) , arts. 2–3 (suppl. by LOREG (1985) , art. 42).
7. Statute (1979) , art. 26; LEPV (1990) , arts. 9–12.
8. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Dublin: Trinity College Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
9. LEPV (1990) , arts. 12 & 65 (suppl. by LOREG (1985) , arts. 46 & 48).
10. Lozano, Carles. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (desde 1980)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2024.
11. "Parlamentarios y Órganos. Grupos. Composición. Actual - XIII Legislatura (2024-)" (in Spanish). Basque Parliament . Retrieved 12 March 2026.
12. LEPV (1990) , art. 53 (suppl. by LOREG (1985) , art. 44).
13. LOREG (1985) , art. 44 bis.
14. "Alba García Martín, elegida coordinadora general de Sumar Mugimendua con un 85% de apoyo". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Bilbao. Europa Press. 30 November 2024. Retrieved 19 December 2024.

Bibliography

• Ley Orgánica 3/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para el País Vasco (Organic Law 3/1979). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 18 December 1979 [version as of 22 December 1979]. BOE-A-1979-30177. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
• Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno (Law 7/1981). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 30 June 1981 [version as of 26 December 2022]. BOE-A-2012-5927. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
• Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5/1985). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 19 June 1985 [version as of 14 July 2025]. BOE-A-1985-11672. Retrieved 5 October 2025.
• Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco (Law 5/1990). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 15 June 1990 [version as of 7 January 2016]. BOE-A-2012-2859. Retrieved 12 March 2026.