1998 Basque regional election

1998 Basque regional election

←  1994 25 October 1998 2001  →
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament 38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,821,608 4.1%
Turnout	1,275,008 (70.0%) 10.3 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Juan José Ibarretxe Carlos Iturgaiz Arnaldo Otegi Party EAJ/PNV PP EH Leader since 31 January 1998 5 October 1996 14 February 1998 Leader's seat Álava Biscay Guipúzcoa Last election 22 seats, 29.3% 11 seats, 14.2% 11 seats, 16.0% [a] Seats won 21 16 14 Seat change 1 5 3 Popular vote 350,322 251,743 224,001 Percentage 27.6% 19.9% 17.7% Swing 1.7 pp 5.7 pp 1.7 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Nicolás Redondo Carlos Garaikoetxea Javier Madrazo Party PSE–EE (PSOE) EA IU/EB Leader since 20 October 1997 4 September 1986 14 May 1994 Leader's seat Biscay Guipúzcoa Biscay Last election 12 seats, 16.8% 8 seats, 10.1% 6 seats, 9.0% Seats won 14 6 2 Seat change 2 2 4 Popular vote 220,052 108,635 71,064 Percentage 17.4% 8.6% 5.6% Swing 0.6 pp 1.5 pp 3.4 pp
Vote winner strength by constituency Election result by constituency
Lehendakari before election José Antonio Ardanza EAJ/PNV Elected Lehendakari Juan José Ibarretxe EAJ/PNV

The 1998 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 25 October 1998, to elect the 6th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

The Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) won 21 seats, the People's Party (PP) came second for the first time with 16 seats, the Basque Citizens (EH) coalition and the Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE) won 14 seats each.

Overview

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari. ^[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Guipúzcoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy. ^{[1] [2]}

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 23 October 1994, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 23 October 1998. The election decree was required to be published in the BOPV no later than 29 September 1998, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 22 November 1998. ^{[1] [2]}

The lehendakari had the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament was to be dissolved and a fresh election called. ^[3]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [4]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	EAJ/PNV	List Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)		Juan José Ibarretxe	Basque nationalism Christian democracy Conservative liberalism	29.32%	22	Y
	PSE–EE (PSOE)	List Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE))		Nicolás Redondo	Social democracy	16.83%	12	N
	EH	List Popular Unity (HB) – Basque Nationalist Action (EAE/ANV) Stand Up (Zutik)		Arnaldo Otegi	Basque independence Abertzale left Revolutionary socialism	16.01% [a]	11	N
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Carlos Iturgaiz	Conservatism Christian democracy	14.16%	11	N
	EA	List Eusko Alkartasuna (EA)		Carlos Garaikoetxea	Basque nationalism Social democracy	10.13%	8	Y
	IU/EB	List United Left (IU/EB)		Javier Madrazo	Socialism Communism	8.99%	6	N
	UA	List Alavese Unity (UA)		Pablo Mosquera	Alavese regionalism Christian democracy	2.68%	5	N

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	PNV							Lead
1998 regional election	25 Oct 1998	—	70.0	27.6 21	17.4 14	17.7 14	19.9 16	8.6 6	5.6 2	1.2 2	7.7
Eco Consulting/EiTB [p 1] [p 2]	25 Oct 1998	21,000	?	28.9 21/23	16.0 11/13	20.9 16/18	14.7 13/15	8.6 5/7	6.2 3/5	1.0 1/2	8.0
Sondaxe/Tele 5 [p 1] [p 2]	25 Oct 1998	2,250	?	? 21	? 16	? 11	? 15	? 6	? 5	? 1	?
Sigma Dos/Antena 3 [p 1] [p 2]	25 Oct 1998	?	?	? 21/22	? 12/14	? 12/13	? 15	? 5/7	? 4/5	? 2/3	?
Demoscopia/El País [p 3] [p 4]	18 Oct 1998	?	65–67	30.4 21/22	17.4 13/14	15.8 11/12	16.8 13/15	9.7 6/7	8.7 5/6	1.2 2	13.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 5] [p 6]	14–16 Oct 1998	1,000	?	30.2 21/23	14.7 10/12	16.6 12/14	17.8 13/15	9.9 7	7.8 5	1.5 3	12.4
Gallup/ABC [p 7]	9–14 Oct 1998	1,506	76.0	30.8 22/23	18.6 14/15	15.3 11	15.4 13/14	9.5 7	8.3 5	0.9 1/2	12.2
Ábaco/Tele 5	13 Oct 1998	?	?	? 21	? 15	? 12	? 16	? 5	? 5	? 1	?
Opina/La Vanguardia [p 8] [p 9]	12–13 Oct 1998	1,500	70	29.0 20/21	19.0 13/15	15.0 11/12	18.0 14/15	9.0 8	7.0 6	1.0 2	10.0
Bergareche/El Correo [p 4] [p 6] [p 10]	8–12 Oct 1998	4,650	?	27.2 20/21	19.5 15/16	14.9 11/12	17.1 14/15	8.4 5/6	8.4 5/6	1.3 2	7.7
PP [p 11]	9 Oct 1998	?	?	? 22/23	? 13/14	? 11/12	? 14/15	? 6	? 3/4	? 2	?
Siadeco/GPS [p 12] [p 13]	2–9 Oct 1998	2,000	66.0	29.0 22	16.1 12	18.4 14	15.3 13	9.7 7	8.5 5	1.4 2	10.6
CIS [p 14] [p 15]	25 Sep–8 Oct 1998	2,097	64.7	29.3 21/22	18.4 14/15	16.1 12/13	16.7 13/14	8.7 6	7.7 5	1.4 2	10.9
PSOE [p 11] [p 16] [p 17]	6–7 Oct 1998	1,354	?	? 23	? 15	? 11	? 14	? 6	? 4	? 2	?
Siadeco/GPS [p 18] [p 19]	21–26 Sep 1998	2,000	67.0	29.4 22	15.9 12	17.7 13	15.3 12	9.9 7	8.7 6	1.5 3	11.7
Siadeco/GPS [p 20] [p 21]	7–15 Sep 1998	2,000	65.0	29.6 22	16.5 12	15.8 11	15.5 13	10.0 8	9.3 6	1.5 3	13.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 22]	28 Aug–3 Sep 1998	900	?	30.0 21	16.2 13	15.2 11	16.5 14	9.2 6	9.1 6	2.0 4	13.5
CPS/EHU [p 23] [p 24]	1–15 Jun 1998	1,400	64	29.0 20/21	21.0 15/16	13.0 10	17.0 13/15	9.0 6/7	7.0 5	1.0 2/3	8.0
Bergareche/El Correo [p 25] [p 26] [p 27]	4–9 Jun 1998	2,625	?	28.3 21	20.1 15/16	12.6 9/10	17.4 14/15	7.7 6	8.8 6/7	1.1 2	8.2
Siadeco/GPS [p 28] [p 29]	11–20 May 1998	2,846	62.5	29.5 22	17.0 14	14.9 11	16.0 13	10.0 7	9.1 6	1.4 2	12.5
CIS [p 30] [p 31]	6–31 Mar 1998	2,099	61.4	29.2 21/22	18.4 14/15	15.3 11	16.5 13/14	9.7 7/8	7.6 5	1.5 2	10.8
Bergareche/El Correo [p 32] [p 33] [p 34] [p 35]	6–13 Mar 1998	2,636	?	26.6 20/22	20.0 16	12.2 9	18.6 16	7.4 5	9.0 5/6	1.4 2/3	6.6
Siadeco/GPS [p 36] [p 37]	30 Jan–7 Feb 1998	1,500	65.0	29.6 22	16.6 12	14.4 11	16.4 13	10.2 8	9.1 6	1.3 3	13.0
Bergareche/El Correo [p 38] [p 39] [p 40]	9 Nov 1997	2,682	?	29.6 23	19.2 15	12.0 9	16.7 15	8.1 6	7.5 5	1.3 2	10.4
Siadeco/GPS [p 28] [p 41] [p 42] [p 43]	16–24 Sep 1997	?	66.0	29.9 22	16.6 12	14.0 11	16.2 13	10.2 9	9.0 5	1.4 3	13.3
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 44]	16–17 Jul 1997	800	?	32.5	15.6	12.9	17.9	9.7	8.8	2.2	14.6
CPS/EHU	8 Jun 1997	1,400	?	29.1 20	18.5 15	12.5 10	14.0 12	9.2 7	9.4 7	2.0 4	10.6
Siadeco/GPS [p 45]	25 Mar 1997	?	64.0	29.6 22	16.8 12	13.7 11	15.6 12	10.1 8	9.8 7	1.5 3	12.8
1996 general election	3 Mar 1996	—	71.5	25.0 (18)	23.7 (20)	12.3 (9)	18.3 (15)	8.2 (6)	9.2 (7)	–	1.3
1995 foral elections	28 May 1995	—	63.9	28.4 (22)	16.7 (13)	14.4 (11)	15.5 (11)	10.9 (9)	8.1 (5)	2.1 (4)	11.7
1995 local elections	28 May 1995	—	64.0	27.9	16.9	14.4	14.4	10.6	7.2	1.9	11.0
1994 regional election	23 Oct 1994	—	59.7	29.3 22	16.8 12	16.0 11	14.2 11	10.1 8	9.0 6	2.7 5	12.5

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 October 1998 Basque Parliament election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)	350,322	27.62	–1.70	21	–1
	People's Party (PP)	251,743	19.85	+5.69	16	+5
	Basque Citizens (EH)1	224,001	17.66	+1.65	14	+3
	Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE))	220,052	17.35	+0.52	14	+2
	Basque Solidarity (EA)	108,635	8.57	–1.56	6	–2
	United Left (IU/EB)	71,064	5.60	–3.39	2	–4
	Alavese Unity (UA)	15,738	1.24	–1.44	2	–3
	Natural Law Party (PLN/LNA)	4,858	0.38	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	3,288	0.26	New	0	±0
	Basque Country Greens (EHB)	864	0.07	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		17,641	1.39	–0.35
Total		1,268,206			75	±0
Valid votes		1,268,206	99.47	+0.06
Invalid votes		6,802	0.53	–0.06
Votes cast / turnout		1,275,008	69.99	+10.30
Abstentions		546,600	30.01	–10.30
Registered voters		1,821,608
Sources [5] [6]
Footnotes: 1 Basque Citizens results are compared to Popular Unity totals in the 1994 election.

Popular vote EAJ/PNV   27.62% PP   19.85% EH   17.66% PSE–EE (PSOE)   17.35% EA   8.57% IU/EB   5.60% UA   1.24% Others   0.71% Blank ballots   1.39%

Seats EAJ/PNV   28.00% PP   21.33% EH   18.67% PSE–EE (PSOE)   18.67% EA   8.00% IU/EB   2.67% UA   2.67%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PNV		PP		EH		PSE–EE		EA		IU/EB		UA
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Álava	21.6	6	26.7	7	12.1	3	16.8	5	6.3	1	5.6	1	8.4	2
Biscay	32.6	9	20.2	5	14.6	4	18.3	5	6.0	1	6.2	1	0.1	–
Guipúzcoa	21.7	6	16.4	4	25.2	7	16.0	4	13.9	4	4.6	–	0.1	–
Total	27.6	21	19.9	16	17.7	14	17.4	14	8.6	6	5.6	2	1.2	2
Sources [5] [6]

Aftermath

Investiture
Ballot →		29 December 1998
Required majority →		38 out of 75
	Juan José Ibarretxe (PNV) • PNV (21) • EH (13) • EA (6)	40 / 75	Y
	Carlos Iturgaiz (PP) • PP (16) • UA (2)	18 / 75	N
	Blank ballots • PSE–EE (13) • IU/EB (2)	15 / 75
	Absentees • EH (1) • PSE–EE (1)	2 / 75
Sources [5]

Notes

1. Results for HB in the 1994 election.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Primeros sondeos tras el cierre de los colegios electorales". El Mundo (in Spanish). 25 October 1998.
2. "Gran disparidad en los sondeos". El País (in Spanish). 26 October 1998.
3. "El 44% de los vascos oculta su voto". El País (in Spanish). 18 October 1998.
4. "Los sondeos hablan de un incremento de las fuerzas no nacionalistas en los comicios vascos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 October 1998.
5. "PP y EH se disputan el segundo puesto en las elecciones vascas". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 October 1998. Archived from the original on 13 January 2001.
6. "El PP y el PSOE acarician su objetivo". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 19 October 1998.
7. "Estancamiento de los nacionalistas de PNV, EH y EA, que obtendrían los mismos escaños que en 1994". ABC (in Spanish). 18 October 1998.
8. "Los no nacionalistas ganan posiciones". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 17 October 1998.
9. "Un PNV en retroceso vuelve a ganar frente al ascenso de PP y socialistas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 17 October 1998.
10. "PSE y PP aumentan su expectativa de voto y bajan PNV, EA y UA". El Correo (in Spanish). 18 October 1998.
11. "Duelo nacionalistas-no nacionalistas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 October 1998.
12. "Últimas previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas-98 (Octubre 1998)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 16 October 1998.
13. "Una nueva encuesta del Gobierno vasco otorga el segundo puesto a EH". El País (in Spanish). 17 October 1998.
14. "Preelectoral del País Vasco. Elecciones Autonómicas 1998 (Estudio nº 2304. Septiembre-Octubre 1998)". CIS (in Spanish). 16 October 1998.
15. "Estudio CIS nº 2304. Ficha técnica" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 16 October 1998.
16. "Un debate electoral sobre política social y empleo reúne por primera vez a PP y EH". ABC (in Spanish). 10 October 1998.
17. "Encuestas, patatas fritas y rosas rojas". El País (in Spanish). 10 October 1998.
18. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas-98 (Octubre 1998)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 8 October 1998.
19. "Una encuesta del Gobierno vasco en vísperas de la campaña deja a EH como segunda fuerza tras el PNV". El País (in Spanish). 9 October 1998.
20. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas-98 (Septiembre 1998)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 25 September 1998.
21. "Un sondeo del Gobierno vasco sitúa al PP como segundo partido de Euskadi". El País (in Spanish). 26 September 1998.
22. "El PP se perfila por escaso margen como segunda fuerza del País Vasco". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 September 1998.
23. "El incremento del voto beneficia a los partidos no nacionalistas, pero se mantiene el empate técnico". El País (in Spanish). 12 September 1998.
24. "La Universidad vasca prevé ascensos de PP y PSE y un retroceso de los nacionalistas". ABC (in Spanish). 12 September 1998.
25. "PSE y PP consolidan su avance". El Correo (in Spanish). 21 June 1998.
26. "Un nuevo sondeo electoral confima el ascenso de PP y PSOE en el País Vasco". ABC (in Spanish). 22 June 1998.
27. "Un nuevo sondeo electoral confirma el ascenso de PP y PSOE en el País Vasco". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 22 June 1998.
28. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Junio 1998)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 23 June 1998.
29. "El nacionalismo aguantará el ascenso del PSE y PP, según un sondeo oficial". El País (in Spanish). 24 June 1998.
30. "El PNV mantiene la primacía pese al alza de PP y PSOE en el País Vasco". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 20 May 1998.
31. "Estudio CIS nº 2282. Ficha técnica" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 19 May 1998.
32. "PP y PSE refuerzan su apoyo electoral". El Correo (in Spanish). 29 March 1998.
33. "El voto no nacionalista podrían imponerse por primera vez en unas elecciones vascas". ABC (in Spanish). 29 March 1998.
34. "El voto no nacionalista podría imponerse por primera vez en unas elecciones vascas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 29 March 1998.
35. "PNV y EA, molestos por el sondeo que prevé la subida de los no nacionalistas". ABC (in Spanish). 30 March 1998.
36. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas-98 (Marzo 1998)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 3 March 1998.
37. "Una encuesta del Gobierno vasco da al PP el segundo puesto el 25-0". El País (in Spanish). 4 March 1998.
38. "Virtual empate entre partidos estatales y nacionalistas ante las elecciones vascas". ABC (in Spanish). 10 November 1997.
39. "Un sondeo vaticina una fuerte subida del PP y PSOE vasco en las autonómicas de 1998". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 10 November 1997.
40. "Un sondeo indica que los nacionalistas pierden votos en Euskadi". El País (in Spanish). 10 November 1997.
41. "Un sondeo coloca al PP vasco como segunda fuerza". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 15 October 1997.
42. "El PP será la segunda fuerza en Euskadi, según un sondeo del Gobierno vasco". El País (in Spanish). 15 October 1997.
43. "Encuesta del Gobierno vasco". ABC (in Spanish). 15 October 1997.
44. "El PP pasaría a ser el segundo partido más votado de Euskadi". El Mundo (in Spanish). 20 July 1997. Archived from the original on 22 November 2001.
45. "Un sondeo electoral del Gobierno vasco sitúa al PP como la segunda fuerza en la Comunidad". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 26 March 1997.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 3/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para el País Vasco (Organic Law 3) (in Spanish). 18 December 1979. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
2. Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco (Law 5) (in Spanish). 15 June 1990. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno (Law 7) (in Spanish). 30 June 1981. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (1980 - 2020)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 September 2017.
6. "Election Results Archive". euskadi.eus (in Spanish). Basque Government. Retrieved 24 September 2017.