1996 Andalusian regional election

1996 Andalusian regional election

←  1994 3 March 1996 2000  →
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	5,577,567 3.5%
Turnout	4,347,193 (77.9%) 10.6 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Manuel Chaves Javier Arenas Luis Carlos Rejón Party PSOE–A PP IULV–CA Leader since 19 April 1990 25 July 1993 21 July 1988 Leader's seat Cádiz Seville Córdoba Last election 45 seats, 38.7% 41 seats, 34.4% 20 seats, 19.1% Seats won 52 40 13 Seat change 7 1 7 Popular vote 1,903,160 1,466,980 603,495 Percentage 44.1% 34.0% 14.0% Swing 5.4 pp 0.4 pp 5.1 pp   Fourth party   Leader Pedro Pacheco Party PA Leader since 1994 Leader's seat Cádiz Last election 3 seats, 5.8% [lower-alpha 1] Seats won 4 Seat change 1 Popular vote 287,764 Percentage 6.7% Swing 0.9 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election Manuel Chaves PSOE–A Elected President Manuel Chaves PSOE–A

The 1996 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 3 March 1996, to elect the 5th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 1996 Spanish general election.

The 1994 election had resulted in a hung parliament. Manuel Chaves had formed a minority government of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A), but was forced to dissolve the Parliament and call a snap election for March 1996 after barely twenty months into his term, as a result of the conservative People's Party (PP) and left-wing United Left (IULV–CA) joining into an unofficial alliance (dubbed as la pinza, Spanish for "the clamp") to block the Chaves government's parliamentary action. Scandals rocking Felipe González's national government and favourable opinion polls were among the reasons that led the two parties to team up to bring down the PSOE regional government. ^{[1] [2]}

Despite opinion polls predicting a likely PSOE defeat, the election result was a major upset: the PSOE gained over 500,000 votes and 7 seats compared to the previous election and won a resounding victory as the PP stagnated and the IU vote collapsed. At 77.9%, turnout was the highest ever registered for a regional election in Andalusia. ^{[3] [4] [5]} This result allowed Chaves to form a coalition government with the Andalusian Party (PA), ending the period of political turmoil that had dominated the previous legislature. ^{[6] [7]}

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[8] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other). ^{[8] [9]}

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
19	Seville (+1)
15	Cádiz, Málaga (–1)
13	Córdoba, Granada
12	Jaén
11	Almería, Huelva

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude. ^[10]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[9] [11]}

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. Election day was to take place between the thirtieth and the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 12 June 1994, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 12 June 1998. The election was required to take place no later than the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament on the condition that it was not held between 1 July and 31 August, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Tuesday, 30 June 1998. ^{[8] [9] [12] [13] [14]}

After legal amendments in 1994, the president was granted the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected. ^{[8] [12] [13] [14]}

Campaign

Election debates

1996 Andalusian regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P Present [lower-alpha 2]   NI Not invited
			PSOE–A	PP	IULV–CA	PA	Audience	Ref.
28 February	Cadena SER	Iñaki Gabilondo	P Chaves	P Arenas	NI	NI	—	[15]
29 February	Canal Sur	Rafael Rodríguez	P Chaves	P Arenas	P Romero	P Pacheco	26.5% (454,000)	[16] [17]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV		Lead
1996 regional election	3 Mar 1996	—	78.1	44.1 52	34.0 40	14.0 13	6.7 4	10.1
Demoscopia/El País [p 1] [p 2]	16–21 Feb 1996	?	80	33.3 39/42	39.7 47/49	18.3 16/18	7.5 3/6	6.4
CIS [p 3] [p 4]	12–21 Feb 1996	2,497	76.5	35.1	38.4	18.7	7.4	3.3
Sigma Dos–Vox Pública/El Mundo [p 5]	15–20 Feb 1996	2,200	?	32.5 36/39	37.9 43/48	18.7 19/22	8.5 5/8	5.4
Vox Pública/El Periódico [p 6]	11–16 Feb 1996	2,000	?	34.9 38/42	40.2 44/49	17.7 16/20	6.0 1/4	5.3
Metra Seis/Colpisa [p 7]	10–15 Feb 1996	1,617	?	34.0– 36.0 41/43	39.0– 40.0 45/49	14.0– 16.0 14/17	7.0– 9.0 4/8	4.0– 5.0
Demoscopia/El País [p 8] [p 9]	10 Feb 1996	?	80	35.7 42/43	39.3 45/48	17.4 16/18	? 3	3.6
Sigma Dos–Vox Pública/El Mundo [p 5] [p 10]	21–25 Jan 1996	2,200	?	32.7 36/40	39.4 45/49	18.0 17/20	8.2 4/7	6.7
Sigma Dos/PP [p 11] [p 12]	3–10 Dec 1995	?	?	37.4 41/44	38.7 44/48	19.4 17/23	2.5 0/1	1.3
PSOE [p 13] [p 14]	9 Dec 1995	2,400	?	38.0	34.0	18.0	5.0	4.0
PSOE [p 15]	27 Nov 1995	?	?	? 38	? 46	? 24/25	? 0/1	?
PSOE [p 16]	23 Nov 1995	?	?	? 39/41	? 46/47	? 20/21	–	?
CIS [p 17] [p 18] [p 19]	27 Oct–5 Nov 1995	2,498	72.8	34.5 40	37.4 45/47	21.6 23/24	5.9 1/2	2.9
1995 local elections	28 May 1995	—	68.8	34.0	31.2	18.1	6.9	2.8
1994 regional election	12 Jun 1994	—	67.3	38.7 45	34.4 41	19.1 20	5.8 [lower-roman 1] 3	4.3
Result for Andalusian Coalition–Andalusian Power.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 3 March 1996 Parliament of Andalusia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	1,903,160	44.05	+5.33	52	+7
	People's Party (PP)	1,466,980	33.96	–0.40	40	–1
	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	603,495	13.97	–5.17	13	–7
	Andalusian Party (PA)1	287,764	6.66	+0.86	4	+1
	Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA)	7,340	0.17	–0.17	0	±0
	Andalusian Nation (NA)	5,846	0.14	–0.13	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	4,339	0.10	–0.05	0	±0
	Authentic Spanish Phalanx (FEA)	3,869	0.09	New	0	±0
	Centrist Union (UC)	1,688	0.04	–0.23	0	±0
	Democratic Andalusian Unity (UAD)	1,486	0.03	New	0	±0
	Voice of the Andalusian People (VDPA)	840	0.02	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		33,165	0.77	–0.08
Total		4,319,972			109	±0
Valid votes		4,319,972	99.37	–0.03
Invalid votes		27,221	0.63	+0.03
Votes cast / turnout		4,347,193	77.94	+10.67
Abstentions		1,230,374	22.06	–10.67
Registered voters		5,577,567
Sources [18] [19] [20]
Footnotes: 1 Andalusian Party results are compared to Andalusian Coalition–Andalusian Power totals in the 1994 election.

Popular vote PSOE–A   44.05% PP   33.96% IULV–CA   13.97% PA   6.66% Others   0.59% Blank ballots   0.77%

Seats PSOE–A   47.70% PP   36.70% IULV–CA   11.93% PA   3.67%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE–A		PP		IULV–CA		PA
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Almería	45.6	5	39.7	5	10.3	1	3.3	−
Cádiz	39.5	6	32.5	5	12.8	2	13.8	2
Córdoba	41.7	6	31.6	4	19.7	3	5.7	−
Granada	44.9	7	37.5	5	12.4	1	3.9	−
Huelva	49.2	6	32.8	4	11.5	1	5.3	−
Jaén	47.3	6	36.2	5	12.2	1	3.3	−
Málaga	39.6	6	37.3	6	15.8	2	5.7	1
Seville	47.4	10	29.7	6	13.9	2	7.5	1
Total	44.1	52	34.0	40	14.0	13	6.7	4
Sources [18] [19] [20]

Aftermath

Investiture Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot →		11 April 1996
Required majority →		55 out of 109 Y
	Yes • PSOE–A (52) • PA (4)	56 / 109
	No • PP (40) • IULV–CA (13)	53 / 109
	Abstentions	0 / 109
	Absentees	0 / 109
Sources [18]

Notes

1. Results for PA–PAP in the 1994 election.
2. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PP ganará ampliamente en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 24 February 1996.
2. "Mayoría relativa del PP en Andalucía". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 25 February 1996.
3. "Distribuciones de frecuencia marginales del Estudio 2207 (Andalucía)". CIS (in Spanish). 21 February 1996.
4. "Estudio CIS nº 2207" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 21 February 1996.
5. "El PP ganará con claridad las elecciones andaluzas pero PSOE e IU tienen la mayoría". El Mundo (in Spanish). 26 February 1996.
6. "Andalucía prepara un vuelco histórico". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 21 February 1996.
7. "El PP podría formar gobierno en Andalucía con el apoyo del PA". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 19 February 1996.
8. "El PP ganará en Andalucía, pero no podrá formar un Gobierno estable". El País (in Spanish). 10 February 1996.
9. "IU baja entre dos y cuatro escaños, y los andalucistas mantienen su presencia en el Parlamento". El País (in Spanish). 10 February 1996.
10. "El PSOE pierde Andalucía". El Mundo (in Spanish). 29 January 1996.
11. "El PP ganaría por primera vez las elecciones autonómicas andaluzas, según una encuesta". ABC (in Spanish). 9 January 1996.
12. "El PP ganaría por primera vez las elecciones andaluzas, con 4 escaños más que el PSOE, según Sigma 2". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 9 January 1996.
13. "Una encuesta del PSOE le sitúa como vencedor en las autonómicas, mientras que la oposición replica que los datos son "absolutamente falsos" y que el sondeo no tiene "ninguna credibilidad"". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 9 December 1995.
14. "El PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones autonómicas andaluzas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 December 1995.
15. "El PP obtendría ahora en Andalucía ocho escaños más que los socialistas, según una encuesta del propio PSOE". ABC (in Spanish). 27 November 1995.
16. "Felipe González decidirá finalmente la fecha de las autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 23 November 1995.
17. "Situación social y política en Andalucía. Elecciones Autonómicas. Octubre-noviembre 1995 (Estudio nº 2196)". CIS (in Spanish). 18 October 1995.
18. "Estudio CIS nº 2196. Ficha técnica" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 18 October 1995.
19. "Esperando a González". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 3 December 1995.

Other

1. "Chaves anuncia elecciones anticipadas en Andalucía al ser rechazados los presupuestos". El País (in Spanish). 23 November 1995. Retrieved 5 December 2018.
2. "La "pinza" acabó en veinte meses con el único gobierno en minoría de Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 24 March 2015. Retrieved 5 December 2018.
3. "Chaves logra el quinto triunfo consecutivo del PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 4 March 1996. Retrieved 5 December 2018.
4. "Los socialistas conservan su feudo andaluz". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 4 March 1996. Retrieved 6 December 2018.
5. "El estrepitoso final de la "pinza"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 5 March 1996. Retrieved 6 December 2018.
6. "Los socialistas andaluces se decantan por un pacto con el PA". El País (in Spanish). 5 March 1996. Retrieved 7 December 2018.
7. "Chaves incorpora a dos andalucistas a su Gobierno". El País (in Spanish). 14 April 1996. Retrieved 7 December 2018.
8. "Ley Orgánica 6/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía". Organic Law No. 2 of 30 December 1981 (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
9. "Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986 (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
10. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
11. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
12. "Ley 6/1983, de 21 de Julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma". Law No. 6 of 21 July 1983 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
13. "Ley 1/1990, de 30 de enero, por la que se modifica la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma". Law No. 1 of 30 January 1990 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
14. "Ley 6/1994, de 18 de mayo, de Modificación de la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma, y la Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 6 of 18 May 1994 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
15. "Chaves y Arenas se enredan en mutuas acusaciones en su único 'duelo'". El País (in Spanish). 29 February 1996. Retrieved 18 May 2022.
16. "Chaves da marcha atrás y acepta finalmente celebrar el jueves en Canal Sur el debate a cuatro que rechazó ayer". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 27 February 1996. Retrieved 20 May 2022.
17. "Unos 454.000 espectadores, audiencia media del debate entre los candidatos a la Presidencia". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 2 March 1996. Retrieved 18 May 2022.
18. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (1982 - 2018)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 September 2017.
19. "Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 1996. Andalusia totals". juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Regional Government of Andalusia . Retrieved 25 September 2017.
20. "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 3 March 1996" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Central Electoral Commission. 26 March 1996. Retrieved 25 September 2017.