In multi-party systems, particularly where proportional representation is employed, it is rare for a single party to hold a majority of the seats, and likewise rare for one party to form government on its own (i.e. coalition government is the norm). Consequently, the concept of a "hung parliament" is largely irrelevant in these systems, as a legislature without a single-party majority is the norm.
In the Westminster system, in the absence of a clear majority, no party or coalition has an automatic constitutional entitlement to form government. This can result in the formation of a coalition government of parties which can together command a majority, or the formation of a minority government, where the ruling party receives confidence and supply from smaller parties or independent legislators. Alternatively, in some systems (notably in Canada), a minority government may take office without any majority at all, and work with other parties on a case-by-case basis. If none of these solutions prove workable, the head of state may dissolve parliament, triggering a snap election.
Overview
A normal objective of parliamentary systems – especially those requiring responsible government such as the Westminster system – is the formation of a stable government (i.e. ideally one that lasts a full parliamentary term, until the next election would normally be due). This requires a government to be able to muster sufficient votes in parliament to pass motions of confidence and supply, especially motions of no-confidence and budget bills. If such motions fail, they normally result in the dissolution of parliament and a fresh election. In some parliamentary systems, however, a new government may be formed without recourse to an election – if, for example, a minor party holds the balance of power, it may publicly express for the opposition, thereby creating a new majority.
The term "hung parliament" is most often used of parliaments dominated by two major parties or coalitions. General elections in such systems usually result in one party having an absolute majority and thus quickly forming a new government. In most parliamentary systems, a hung parliament is considered exceptional and is often seen as undesirable. In other contexts, a hung parliament may be seen as ideal – for example, if opinions among the voting public are polarised regarding one or more issues, a hung parliament may lead to the emergence of a compromise or consensus.
If a legislature is bicameral, the term "hung parliament" is usually used only with respect to the lower house.
In a multi-party system with legislators elected by proportional representation or a similar systems, it is usually exceptionally rare and difficult for any party to have an absolute majority. Under such situations, hung parliaments are often taken for granted and coalition governments are normal. However, the term may be used to describe an election in which no established coalition wins an outright majority (such as the German federal election of 2005 or the 2018 Italian general election).
History
The term apparently emerged in the United Kingdom, around the time of the 1974 election, by analogy with a hung jury, that is, one unable to reach a verdict. . However, whereas a hung jury results in a mistrial, requiring a new trial, there is no general rule under which the absence of a clear majority requires a fresh election. In recent years, most "hung parliaments" have served their full term.
Australia
The House of Representatives elected in 2010, with a 72–72 tie between the Labor Party and the Opposition Coalition.
Hung parliaments are rare at the federal level in Australia, as a de facto two-party system, in which the Australian Labor Party competes against a permanent Liberal-National Coalition of the conservative parties, has existed with only brief interruptions since the early 20th century. Prior to 1910, no party had had a majority in the House of Representatives. As a result, there were frequent changes of government, several of which took place during parliamentary terms. Since 1910, when the two-party system was cemented, there have been two hung parliaments, the first in 1940, and the second in 2010. At the 1940 federal election, incumbent Prime Minister Robert Menzies secured the support of the two crossbenchers and continued to govern, but in 1941 the independents switched their support to Labor, bringing John Curtin to power.
Declining support for the major parties in recent times is leading to more non-majoritarian outcomes at elections.[6] At the 2010 federal election, which resulted in an exact 72–72 seat tie between Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition, incumbent Prime Minister Julia Gillard secured the support of four out of six Independent and Green Party crossbenchers and continued to govern until 2013.
In the 2016 federal election a hung parliament was only narrowly averted with the Liberal-National Coalition winning 76 seats, the bare minimum required to form a majority government. The Liberal-National Coalition government lost its majority government status after a by-election in 2018, but regained its majority in 2019.
Hung parliaments at either the federal and provincial level are an infrequent but not unusual occurrence in Canada. Hung Parliaments are commonly referred to as minority governments.[7] Five of the previous seven recent federal elections have resulted in hung parliaments (the 38th, the 39th, the 40th, the 43rd, and the 44th). Following all five elections the largest party ruled as a "minority government". Although Canadian minority governments have tended to be short-lived, the two successive minorities under Prime Minister Stephen Harper managed to hold on to power from February 2006 until a no confidence vote in March 2011. The subsequent election saw a majority parliament elected with Harper's Conservative Party obtaining a 24-seat majority.
At the territorial level, a unique situation happened in the 2021 Yukon general election, in which the electoral district of Vuntut Gwitchin resulted in a tie. A judicial recount was held and the tie remained. A draw was held between the two candidates which ultimately named NDP challenger Annie Blake the winner against incumbent Liberal cabinet minister and MLA Pauline Frost. This victory ultimately resulted in a hung parliament in the Yukon legislature with the NDP holding the balance of power.
Since the establishment of the two-round system for parliamentary elections in 1958, hung parliaments are unusual under the Fifth Republic. Still, 2 general elections out of 16 resulted in such a parliamentary configuration since 1958:
June 1988 parliamentary elections: after being reelected as President of France in May 1988, François Mitterrand dissolved the National Assembly and called for a snap legislative election on the 5 and 12 June 1988 to regain the majority he lost to a centre-right to right-wing coalition in 1986. The snap election resulted in France's first hung parliament since the fall of the Fourth Republic in 1958, with Mitterrand's PS as the largest party (275 seats) but 14 short of an overall majority. The Communists and the independent Centrists ended up as potential kingmakers in the newly elected Assembly.
9th National Assembly of France, elected in 1988, was France's first hung parliament since 1958.
June 2022 parliamentary elections: less than 2 months after being reelected as president, Emmanuel Macron and his government, now led by Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, fought the 2022 legislative election taking place on the 12 and 19 June. In the second round, Macron's centrist coalition unexpectedly lost its majority in the National Assembly and was reduced to being the largest bloc (with 251 seats) in a hung parliament. Going into the election with a 115-seat majority, Macron's government now fell 38 short of an absolute majority in the lower house of Parliament, the widest margin for any French cabinet since 1958. While both the left-wing NUPES and the far-right RN achieved significant gains, the centre-right to right-wing Republicans were left holding the balance of power in this hung parliament, despite suffering seizable losses.
16th National Assembly of France, elected in 2022, is France's second hung parliament since 1958 and current legislature.
However, despite having a multi-party system in place, it has witnessed a clear majority parliament for 45 years against its transition to democratic republic being 70 years old.[10][11][12]
Hung assemblies within states and alliances between national and regional parties at sub-national level are common.
Ireland
Because Ireland uses PR-STV, it is rare for any one party to have a majority on its own. The last such occasion was in 1977. However, one or other coalitions are known to be possible before and during the election. Therefore, a "hung Dáil" (Dáil Éireann being the lower and most dominant chamber of the Oireachtas/Parliament) in Ireland refers more to the inability of a coalition of parties who traditionally enter government together or would be expected to govern together, from doing so.
The President has no direct role in the formation of governments in the case of a hung parliament. However, he retains the power to convene a meeting of either or both the Dáil and Senate which could become important if there was a government trying to use parliamentary recess to prevent confidence votes and hold onto power. The President may also refuse to dissolve Dáil Eireann and call an election if the Taoiseach loses a vote of confidence, instead giving the other parties a chance to see if they can put together a government without proceeding to another election.
In 2016, Fine Gael and Labour, who had been in government the previous five years, were unable, due to Labour's collapse, to enter government again. Fianna Fáil had enough seats to put together a rainbow government with the other centre-left, hard left parties and independents but negotiations broke down. Fianna Fáil had also promised not to enter coalition with Sinn Féin.
The press began to speculate about a Germany style "Grand Coalition" similar to the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats there. Many members of FF considered FG too right wing to enter coalition with and threatened to leave the party this came to pass. As talks continued on without a new government (the old government, constitutionally, which had just been voted out, remaining in power including ministers who had lost their seats) FF agreed to allow a government to form by abstention. The parliamentary arithmetic fell in such a way that if FF TD's abstained on confidence and supply matters, a FG minority government could, with the support of a group of independents, form a new government. This was agreed in exchange for a number of policy concessions. Once the deal with FF was signed, Taoiseach Enda Kenny conducted talks with the independents and entered government for a second term.
All parliamentary elections in Israel have resulted in hung parliaments. The Knesset consists of 120 members and the highest number of seats a single faction has ever received was the 56 members Alignment (Ma'arach) got in the October 1969 elections. When the same faction was formed in January 1969 it consisted of 63 members, the only instance to date of a faction with an absolute majority in the Knesset. The lowest number of seats the largest faction has ever received in a Knesset election was 26 members received by One Israel in the 1999 Israeli general election.
Hung parliaments were relatively uncommon in New Zealand prior to the introduction of proportional representation in 1993. On only four occasions since the beginnings of party politics in 1890 had a hung parliament occurred under the first-past-the-post system: in 1911, 1922, 1928 and 1931. The rarity between 1936 and 1996 was due to the regression into a two-party system, alternating between the long dominating New Zealand Labour Party and New Zealand National Party.[20] From the first MMP election in 1996 until the 2020 election no single party gained an outright majority in parliament. The 2020 election was the first to return a majority – a narrow majority for the Labour Party – since 1993.[21]
The House of Commons following the 2017 general election. No party had a majority.
In the United Kingdom, before World War I, a largely stable two-party system existed for generations; traditionally, only the Tories and Whigs, or from the mid-19th century the Conservative and Liberal parties, managed to deliver Members of Parliament in significant numbers. Hung parliaments were thus rare, especially during the 19th century. The possibility of change arose when, in the aftermath of the Act of Union, 1800, a number of Irish MPs took seats in the House, though initially these followed the traditional alignments. However, two Reform Acts (in 1867 and in 1884) significantly extended the franchise and redrew the constituencies, and coincided with a change in Irish politics. Following the 1885 general election, neither party had an overall majority. The Irish Parliamentary Party held the balance of power and made Irish Home Rule a condition of their support. However, the Liberal Party split on the issue of Irish Home Rule, leading to another general election in 1886, in which the Conservatives won the most seats and governed with the support of the fragment of Liberalism opposed to Home Rule, the Liberal Unionist Party.
Both the election of January 1910, and that of December 1910 produced a hung parliament with an almost identical number of seats won by the governing Liberal Party and the Conservative Party. This was due both to the constitutional crisis and to the rise of the Labour Party. The elections of 1929 resulted in the last hung parliament for many years; in the meantime, Labour had replaced the Liberals as one of the two dominating parties.
Since the elections of 1929, three general elections have resulted in hung parliaments in the UK. The first was the election in February 1974, and the ensuing parliament lasted only until October. The second was the May 2010 election, the result of which was a hung parliament with the Conservative party as the largest single party. The results for the 3 main parties were: Conservatives 306, Labour 258, Liberal Democrats 57.[22] The third one resulted from the snap election held in June 2017 that had been called for by Theresa May in order to strengthen her majority heading into Brexit negotiations later in 2017. However, this election backfired on May and her Conservative Party, resulting in a hung parliament after the snap election.[23]
The formation of the coalition resulting from the 2010 election led to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which instituted fixed five-year Parliaments and transferred the power to call early elections from the Prime Minister to Parliament itself. This was the idea of the Deputy Prime MinisterNick Clegg, then the leader of the Liberal Democrats, who said that this would stop the Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, David Cameron, from calling a snap election to end the hung parliament, as many other Conservatives had requested.
Hung parliaments can also arise when slim government majorities are eroded by by-election defeats and defection of Members of Parliament to opposition parties, as well as resignations of MPs from the House of Commons. This happened in December 1996 to the Conservative government of John Major (1990–97) and in mid-1978 to the Labour government of James Callaghan (1976–79); this latter period covers the era known as the Winter of Discontent. The minority government of Jim Callaghan came when Labour ended their 15-month Lib–Lab pact with the Liberals, having lost their majority in early 1977.
According to researchers Andrew Blick and Stuart Wilks-Heeg, the phrase "hung parliament" did not enter into common usage in the UK until the mid-1970s. It was first used in the press by journalist Simon Hoggart in The Guardian in 1974.[24]
Academic treatments of hung parliaments include David Butler's Governing Without a Majority: Dilemmas for Hung Parliaments in Britain (Sheridan House, 1986) and Vernon Bogdanor's 'Multi-Party Politics and the Constitution' (Cambridge University Press, 1983).
Consequences
In countries where parliaments under majority control are the norm, a hung parliament is often viewed as an unusual and undesirable election result, leading to relatively weak and unstable government. A period of uncertainty after the election is common, as major party leaders negotiate with independents and minor parties to establish a working majority.
An aspiring head of government may seek to build a coalition government; in Westminster systems, this typically involves agreement on a joint legislative programme and a number of ministerial posts going to the minor coalition partners, in return for a stable majority. Alternatively, a minority government may be formed, establishing confidence and supply agreements in return for policy concessions agreed in advance, or relying on case by case support.
In the 1999 Victorian state election, the Labor Party won 42 seats, while the incumbent Liberal National Coalition retained 43, with 3 seats falling to independents. The Labor Party formed a minority government with the 3 independents.
The 2010 Tasmanian state election resulted in a hung parliament. After a period of negotiation, the incumbent Labor government led by David Bartlett was recommissioned, but containing the Leader of the Tasmanian Greens, Nick McKim, as a minister, and the Greens' Cassy O'Connor as Cabinet Secretary.
In the 2010 federal election, neither Labor nor the Liberal coalition secured the majority of seats required to form a Government in their own right. In order to counter the potential instability of minority government involved groups may negotiate written agreements defining their terms of support. Such measures were undertaken by the Gillard Government in 2010.[25]
France
In the 1988 French legislative elections, a hung parliament occurred with the Socialists as the largest party. Following talks with parliamentary leaders, Prime Minister Michel Rocard formed a new minority government, incorporating centrist ministers in a sort of unofficial coalition with the pivotal independent centrist group in the Assembly, ensuring a somewhat stable government until 1991. His direct successors, Prime Ministers Édith Cresson and Pierre Bérégovoy, both formed minority governments, relying alternately on the Communists' or the Centrists' support in Parliament (depending on the issue).
In the 2022 French legislative elections, a hung parliament occurred again with President Macron's Ensemble coalition as the largest bloc in the National Assembly. Both the President and the Prime Minister held talks with opposition leaders in order to try forming a coalition government with the centre-right (LR) and the centre-left (PS and the Greens), or at least reaching some sort of confidence-and-supply deal with them. Talks rapidly failed since no opposition party showed interest in propelling Macron's administration. In July 2022, Prime Minister Borne reshuffled her Cabinet and officially formed a minority government. As of June 2023, it is still the current government of France.
India
In India, if an election results in a 'hung assembly' in one of the state Legislative Assemblies and no party is capable of gaining confidence, then fresh elections are announced to be held as soon as possible. Until this occurs President's Rule is applied. In India there have been many situations of hung assemblies in the state legislatures. However, invariably, the President of India in the case of Lok Sabha elections and the Governor of the state concerned, in the case of state elections, would attempt to give opportunities to the parties, starting with the one that got the maximum number of seats in the elections, to explore possibilities of forming a coalition government, before bringing in President's Rule.
New Zealand
The first such occasion was in 1911 when the Liberal Party won fewer seats than the opposition Reform Party despite tallying the most votes. A vote of no confidence was placed by Reform and the Liberals survived by just one vote. This prompted Prime Minister Sir Joseph Ward to resign, his replacement Thomas Mackenzie was later defeated in July 1912 in a vote with several MPs and Labour crossing the floor to vote with the opposition, the last time in New Zealand history a government has changed on a confidence vote. This broke 23 years of Liberal governance and William Massey formed a new Reform Party government. Massey governed through to his death in 1925, though in 1922 the Reform Party suffered major losses and Massey was forced negotiate with several Independent MPs to retain power.
In 1928, Reform were ousted from governance and Joseph Ward once again won back power. However, the Reform and United (Liberal) parties were tied on seats with Labour holding the balance of power. Labour chose to back Ward rather than let Reform leader Gordon Coates remain in office. In the next election in 1931, there was again a three-way deadlock. On this occasion the Reform and United parties became a coalition government out of mutual fear of Labour's ever-increasing appeal as the Great Depression worsened.
1993 was the last time a hung parliament occurred in New Zealand. Governor-General Dame Catherine Tizard asked Sir David Beattie to form a committee, along with three retired appeal court judges, to decide whom to appoint as Prime Minister. [26] However, National won an extra seat after special votes were counted, giving National 50 seats and Labour 45 seats (4 were won by third-party candidates). Labour's Sir Peter Tapsell agreed to become Speaker of the New Zealand House of Representatives. As a result, National did not lose a vote in the house and maintained a dubious majority for three years.
United Kingdom
In the February 1974 general election, no party gained an overall parliamentary majority. Labour won the most seats (301, which was 17 seats short of an overall majority) with the Conservatives on 297 seats, although the Conservatives had a larger share of the popular vote. As the incumbent Prime Minister, Edward Heath remained in office attempting to build a coalition with the Liberals. When these negotiations were unsuccessful Heath resigned and Labour led by Harold Wilson took over in a minority government.
In the 2010 UK general election, another hung parliament occurred with the Conservatives as the largest party, and discussions followed to help create a stable government. This resulted in agreement on a coalition government, which was also a majority government, between the Conservative Party, which won the most votes and seats in the election, and the Liberal Democrats.
There have been occasions when, although a parliament or assembly is technically hung, the party in power has a working majority. For example, in the United Kingdom, the tradition is that the Speaker and Deputy Speakers do not vote and Sinn Féin MPs never take their seats per their policy of abstentionism, so these members can be discounted from the opposition numbers.
When Dafydd Elis-Thomas (Plaid Cymru) was reelected as the presiding officer, this reduced the number of opposition AMs who could vote to 29, as the presiding officer votes only in the event of a tie and, even then, not on party political lines but according to Speaker Denison's rule. Thus, Labour had a working majority of one seat until Law ran in Blaenau Gwent.[27]
↑ It was first controlled by a Conservative majority. After a scandal in the Conservative Party, the Liberals took power.
↑ While the Liberals won a one seat majority in the 1921 Canadian federal election resignations changed the parliament from a small majority to a Hung Parliament.
↑ Liberals gained majority due to resignations and by-elections.
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↑ Dunleavy, P.; Diwakar, R.; Dunleavy, C. (2007), The Effective Space of Party Competition(PDF), London School of Economics and Political Science, archived from the original(PDF) on 28 October 2007, retrieved 27 September 2011
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