2023 New South Wales state election

Last updated

2023 New South Wales state election
Flag of New South Wales.svg
  2019 on before 25 March 20232027 

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Gladys Berejiklian NSW (cropped).jpg ChrisMinns.jpg
Leader Gladys Berejiklian Chris Minns
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since23 January 2017 4 June 2021
Leader's seat Willoughby Kogarah
Last election48 seats36 seats
Current seats46 seats36 seats
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 1Increase2.svg 11

  Greens placeholder-01.png
SFF
LeaderCollective leadershipNo leader
Party Greens Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Last election3 seats3 seats
Current seats3 seats3 seats
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 44Increase2.svg 44

Incumbent Premier

Gladys Berejiklian
Liberal


The 2023 New South Wales state election will be held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Contents

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential voting in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Background

At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. At the election the Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee from the Liberals and Lismore from the Nationals.

The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.

Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.

Following a controversy surrounding koala policy, on 10 September 2020, Nationals leader John Barilaro announced his party would no longer support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. The Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 9:00am, 11 September 2020. [1] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March, [2] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

Redistribution

The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors. [3]

In November 2020, the proposed redistribution names and boundaries was released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted. [4]

The Labor-held district of Lakemba will be abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney will be created from Camden and Macquarie Fields. [4]

A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the district's new boundaries: [4]

The Liberal-held Heathcote will take in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and become a notionally marginal Labor seat. [5]

Current Seat2019 ElectionNew Seat2021 Redistribution
PartyMemberMarginPartyMemberMargin*
Baulkham Hills Liberal David Elliott 28.68 Kellyville LiberalNotional23.1
Heathcote Liberal Lee Evans 4.96 Heathcote LaborNotional1.7
Ku-ring-gai Liberal Alister Henskens 30.52 Wahroonga LiberalNotional19.0
Lakemba Labor Jihad Dib 32.42Abolished
Leppington New seatLaborNotional1.5
Mulgoa Liberal Tanya Davies 10.13 Badgerys Creek LiberalNotional9.7
Seven Hills Liberal Mark Taylor 6.36 Winston Hills LiberalNotional5.7
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results.

Registered parties

17 parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC). [6]

Electoral pendulum

This is a pre-2023 electoral pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green. [7] The major parties' margins do not include third parties.

Liberal/National Seats (47)
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB0.1%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell [lower-alpha 1] NAT0.5% [lower-alpha 2]
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB0.6%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB3.1%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT5.0%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB5.7%
Fairly Safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB6.0%
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB6.5%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB6.5%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB6.8%
Bega Andrew Constance LIB6.9%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB7.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB8.9%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT9.3%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB9.7%
Safe
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB10.6%
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT10.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB11.3%
Monaro John Barilaro NAT11.6%
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB12.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB13.6%
Wollondilly Nathaniel Smith LIB14.2%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB14.4%
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT14.5%
Manly James Griffin LIB14.6%
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB14.7%
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT15.4%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB15.9%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB16.6%
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB16.9%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB17.8%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT17.9%
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT18.1
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB19.0%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB19.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT20.1%
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB20.6
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB20.7%
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB21.9%
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB22.4%
Castle Hill Ray Williams LIB22.4%
Kellyville David Elliott LIB23.1%
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB24.8%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT26.6%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT28.0%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT33.2%
Labor Seats (37)
Marginal
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP0.1%
Leppington new seatALP1.5%
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB1.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP2.0%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP2.3%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP3.0%
Strathfield Jodi McKay ALP5.2%
The Entrance David Mehan ALP5.3%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP7.1%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP8.3%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP8.6%
Granville Julia Finn ALP9.4%
Safe
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP10.0%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP10.6%
Wyong David Harris ALP12.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP13.1%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP13.6%
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP13.7%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP14.7%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP14.9%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP15.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP15.3%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP16.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP16.7%
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP16.8%
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP17.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP17.5%
Keira Ryan Park ALP18.2%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP18.4%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP18.5%
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP19.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP19.7%
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP20.5%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP21.9%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP22.9%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP25.8%
Crossbench Seats (9)
Murray Helen Dalton SFF2.4% vs NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN4.9% vs NAT
Barwon Roy Butler SFF6.6% vs NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN10.0% vs ALP
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN11.4% vs ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND11.8% vs LIB
Orange Philip Donato SFF15.2% vs NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND15.5% vs NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND23.2% vs ALP

Polling

Voting intention

Polling that is conducted under the Newspoll brand and published in The Australian is via random online selection by polling firm YouGov. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
LIBNATALPGRN SFF ONP OTHUNDL/NPALP
23 September 2021Resolve Strategic [8] [lower-alpha 3] 41%*30%11%2%16%N/A
18 July 2021Resolve Strategic [9] [lower-alpha 4] 43%*28%12%1%16%N/A
4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
16 May 2021Resolve Strategic [10] [lower-alpha 5] 44%*28%12%4%12%N/A
March 2021Redbridge [11] [12] [13] 37.0%3.1%23.9%6.7%0.8%4.3%5.3%18.9%59%41% [14]
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
23 March 2019 election 32.0%9.6%33.3%9.6%3.5%1.1%11.0%52.0%48.0%
22 March 2019 Newspoll 41%*35%10%14%51%49% [lower-alpha 6]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here
  1. Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  2. While the post-2019 margin is 2.5%, the results of the 2021 Upper Hunter state by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the National Party of Australia – NSW.
  3. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.
  4. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.
  5. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.
  6. Preference allocation based on previous election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
DateFirmBetter PremierBerejiklianMinns
Berejiklian Minns SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
23 September 2021Resolve Strategic [15] 48%21%not askednot asked
15–18 Sept 2021Newspoll [16] not asked56%40%not asked
28 July 2021Utting Research [17] not asked56%33%not asked
18 July 2021Resolve Strategic [18] 55%16%not askednot asked
4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition LeaderBerejiklian McKay BerejiklianMcKay
16 May 2021Resolve Strategic [19] 57%17%50%17%13%21%
11–16 November 2020Essential [20] not asked75%17%not asked
28 Oct–2 Nov 2020Essential [21] not asked68%21%not asked
21–23 October 2020Ipsos [22] [23] 58%19%64%16%22%25%
14–19 October 2020Essential [24] not asked67%22%not asked
16–17 October 2020YouGov [25] not asked68%26%not asked
15–18 July 2020Newspoll [26] not asked64%30%not asked
24–28 June 2020Newspoll [27] not asked68%26%not asked
21–26 April 2020Newspoll [28] not asked69%23%not asked
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition LeaderBerejiklian Daley BerejiklianDaley
23 March 2019 Election
22 March 2019Newspoll43%35%43%42%32%49%
19 March 2019YouGov–Galaxy [29] 38%36%not asked
10 March 2019Newspoll [30] 41%34%44%38%37%38%
10 March 2019UComms–ReachTEL [31] [32] 46.7%53.3%not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Notes

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