All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
The 2023 New South Wales state election will be held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential voting in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.
At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. At the election the Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.
The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee from the Liberals and Lismore from the Nationals.
The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.
Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.
Following a controversy surrounding koala policy, on 10 September 2020, Nationals leader John Barilaro announced his party would no longer support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. The Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 9:00am, 11 September 2020.Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.
The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.
The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.
In November 2020, the proposed redistribution names and boundaries was released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted.
The Labor-held district of Lakemba will be abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney will be created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.
A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the district's new boundaries:
The Liberal-held Heathcote will take in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and become a notionally marginal Labor seat.
|Current Seat||2019 Election||New Seat||2021 Redistribution|
|Baulkham Hills||Liberal||David Elliott||28.68||Kellyville||Liberal||Notional||23.1|
|Mulgoa||Liberal||Tanya Davies||10.13||Badgerys Creek||Liberal||Notional||9.7|
|Seven Hills||Liberal||Mark Taylor||6.36||Winston Hills||Liberal||Notional||5.7|
|*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results.|
17 parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
This is a pre-2023 electoral pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.The major parties' margins do not include third parties.
|Liberal/National Seats (47)|
|East Hills||Wendy Lindsay||LIB||0.1%|
|Upper Hunter||Dave Layzell||NAT||0.5%|
|Winston Hills||Mark Taylor||LIB||5.7%|
|Myall Lakes||Stephen Bromhead||NAT||9.3%|
|Badgerys Creek||Tanya Davies||LIB||9.7%|
|South Coast||Shelley Hancock||LIB||10.6%|
|Coffs Harbour||Gurmesh Singh||NAT||10.8%|
|Lane Cove||Anthony Roberts||LIB||14.7%|
|North Shore||Felicity Wilson||LIB||17.8%|
|Port Macquarie||Leslie Williams||NAT||20.1%|
|Castle Hill||Ray Williams||LIB||22.4%|
|Northern Tablelands||Adam Marshall||NAT||33.2%|
|Labor Seats (37)|
|The Entrance||David Mehan||ALP||5.3%|
|Port Stephens||Kate Washington||ALP||5.8%|
|Blue Mountains||Trish Doyle||ALP||13.6%|
|Macquarie Fields||Anoulack Chanthivong||ALP||14.9%|
|Mount Druitt||Edmond Atalla||ALP||18.5%|
|Summer Hill||Jo Haylen||ALP||21.9%|
|Crossbench Seats (9)|
|Murray||Helen Dalton||SFF||2.4% vs NAT|
|Ballina||Tamara Smith||GRN||4.9% vs NAT|
|Barwon||Roy Butler||SFF||6.6% vs NAT|
|Balmain||Jamie Parker||GRN||10.0% vs ALP|
|Newtown||Jenny Leong||GRN||11.4% vs ALP|
|Sydney||Alex Greenwich||IND||11.8% vs LIB|
|Orange||Philip Donato||SFF||15.2% vs NAT|
|Wagga Wagga||Joe McGirr||IND||15.5% vs NAT|
|Lake Macquarie||Greg Piper||IND||23.2% vs ALP|
Polling that is conducted under the Newspoll brand and published in The Australian is via random online selection by polling firm YouGov. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.
|Date||Firm||Primary vote||TPP vote|
|23 September 2021||Resolve Strategic||41%*||30%||11%||2%||–||16%||–||N/A|
|18 July 2021||Resolve Strategic||43%*||28%||12%||1%||–||16%||–||N/A|
|4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition|
|16 May 2021||Resolve Strategic||44%*||28%||12%||4%||–||12%||–||N/A|
|29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition|
|23 March 2019 election||32.0%||9.6%||33.3%||9.6%||3.5%||1.1%||11.0%||–||52.0%||48.0%|
|22 March 2019||Newspoll||41%*||35%||10%||–||–||14%||–||51%||49%|
|* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.|
|Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here|
|23 September 2021||Resolve Strategic||48%||21%||not asked||not asked|
|15–18 Sept 2021||Newspoll||not asked||56%||40%||not asked|
|28 July 2021||Utting Research||not asked||56%||33%||not asked|
|18 July 2021||Resolve Strategic||55%||16%||not asked||not asked|
|4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition Leader||Berejiklian||McKay||Berejiklian||McKay|
|16 May 2021||Resolve Strategic||57%||17%||50%||17%||13%||21%|
|11–16 November 2020||Essential||not asked||75%||17%||not asked|
|28 Oct–2 Nov 2020||Essential||not asked||68%||21%||not asked|
|21–23 October 2020||Ipsos||58%||19%||64%||16%||22%||25%|
|14–19 October 2020||Essential||not asked||67%||22%||not asked|
|16–17 October 2020||YouGov||not asked||68%||26%||not asked|
|15–18 July 2020||Newspoll||not asked||64%||30%||not asked|
|24–28 June 2020||Newspoll||not asked||68%||26%||not asked|
|21–26 April 2020||Newspoll||not asked||69%||23%||not asked|
|29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition Leader||Berejiklian||Daley||Berejiklian||Daley|
|23 March 2019 Election||–||–||–||–||–||–|
|22 March 2019||Newspoll||43%||35%||43%||42%||32%||49%|
|19 March 2019||YouGov–Galaxy||38%||36%||not asked|
|10 March 2019||Newspoll||41%||34%||44%||38%||37%||38%|
|10 March 2019||UComms–ReachTEL||46.7%||53.3%||not asked|
|* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".|
† Participants were forced to choose.
|Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here|
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