2023 New South Wales state election

Last updated

2023 New South Wales state election
Flag of New South Wales.svg
  2019 25 March 2023 2027  

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered5,521,688
Turnout4,861,148 (88.04%)
(Decrease2.svg2.96 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Fundraising function for Mr Edmond Atalla MP, State Member for Member for Mount Druitt, with then NSW Opposition Leader, Mr Chris Minns MP (cropped).jpg
CEBIT Australia - Day 2, The Hon Dominic Perrottet MP (1) (cropped) v2.jpg
Greens placeholder-01.png
Leader Chris Minns Dominic Perrottet No leader
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 4 June 2021 5 October 2021 N/A
Leader's seat Kogarah Epping N/A
Last election36 seats, 33.31%48 seats, 41.58%3 seats, 9.57%
Seats before36 [lower-alpha 1] 45 [lower-alpha 2] 3
Seats won45363
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 9Decrease2.svg 12Steady2.svg
First-preference vote1,738,0811,663,215455,960
Percentage36.97%35.37%9.70%
SwingIncrease2.svg 3.66Decrease2.svg 6.21Increase2.svg 0.13
TPP 54.26%45.74%
TPP Increase2.svg 6.29Decrease2.svg 6.29

2023 New South Wales state election - New.svg
2023 New South Wales state election hold gains.svg

Premier before election

Dominic Perrottet
Liberal

Elected Premier

Chris Minns
Labor

The 2023 New South Wales state election was held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Contents

The incumbent minority Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, sought to win a fourth successive four-year term in office, though were defeated by the opposition Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Chris Minns. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents also contested the election. The outcome resulted in the first Labor government in the state in 12 years, ending the longest Coalition government in New South Wales history. [1] It was also the first time since 1995 that Labor had won a New South Wales state election from opposition. [2] The election also marked the second time in history that the Australian Labor Party gained control of the entirety of Mainland Australia at the federal and state levels simultaneously (leaving Tasmania as the only state with a Liberal government), a feat last achieved in 2007. [3] [4]

Though the Coalition was defeated, Labor were unable to win enough seats to govern in majority, resulting in a hung parliament. But Labor will be able to govern with the support of independent MPs Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper, and Joe McGirr, who will guarantee Labor confidence and supply. [5] Piper also made an agreement with Labor to become the Speaker of the Lower House, a role which he had been preparing for by doing duty as a deputy speaker. [6]

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

The online voting system iVote was not used in this election. The NSW government suspended iVote after the 2021 NSW local council elections saw five wards impacted by access outages, with three significant enough that analysis suggested as high as a 60% chance the wrong candidate had been elected, after which the NSW Supreme Court ordered those elections voided and re-run. [7]

Background

Previous election

At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. The Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee and Lismore.

The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.

Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.

Change of premiership, resignations and minority government

Internal splits within the government became apparent in August and September 2020, when proposed laws protecting the habitats of koalas resulted in Nationals leader John Barilaro threatening to refuse to support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Berejiklian threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 11 September 2020. [8] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench. [9]

On 1 October 2021 Berejiklian resigned as Premier following the launch of an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation into her having possibly breached public trust or encouraged corrupt behaviour during her personal relationship with the former member for Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire. [10] At a subsequent Liberal party room meeting, Liberal deputy leader and New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor. [11] Findings about the case were not released prior to the election. [12] Despite this, Berejiklian still recorded high approval ratings, with psephologist Antony Green even claiming that should she have remained Premier, the Coalition would have been the favourites to win the election. [13]

The government initially held a two-seat majority, which was technically only a one-seat majority with the omission of Liberal member Jonathan O'Dea as Speaker, who only has a casting vote. In May 2021 the government lost its majority on the floor of the parliament as Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward resigned from the ministry and moved to the crossbench after identifying himself as being the subject of an inquiry by the New South Wales Police Force's sex crimes and child abuse squad, for which he was later charged with offences. [14] Ward denied the allegations, though in March 2022 he was suspended from the parliament, which remains in effect until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings. [15] [16] Less than two months prior to Ward's resignation from the ministry, Liberal member for Drummoyne John Sidoti also moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent, after ICAC announced it would open an inquiry into his personal property dealings. [17] Both Sidoti and Ward's resignations meant the government was officially in minority status. This status was further cemented in February 2022, when the Liberals lost the seat of Bega at a by-election to the Labor Party, causing the Coalition to slip to 45 seats in the 93-seat Assembly. [18]

In March 2022 a bill moved by the Greens, to change the state's constitution and allow MPs to meet virtually during a declared emergency such as a pandemic, passed the parliament and in so doing, became the first non-government bill opposed by the government to pass the parliament since the Liberal/National Coalition came to power at the 2011 state election. [19] The following month the Opposition Leader Chris Minns stated the Labor Party would not move or support a motion of no confidence against the government or seek to deny it supply, indicating the government will be able to serve the full term and avoid a snap election. [20] The success of the teal independents at the 2022 federal election prompted concern from Liberal MPs Tim James and Matt Kean, and along with other concerns caused Perrotet to portray himself as increasingly moderate. [21] [22]

On 29 March 2022 the Supreme Court of NSW dissolved the Christian Democratic Party. [23] [24] The race will be the first NSW state election since 1981 at which the Christian Democratic Party ("Call to Australia" prior to 1998) will not be contesting.

On 20 October 2022 Tania Mihailuk MP resigned from the NSW Labor Party [25] and announced on 17 January 2023, that she would be running second on the One Nation ticket in the election for the Legislative Council, behind party leader Mark Latham. [26]

From a poll that followed the Nazi uniform scandal, 67% said it didn't make a difference to their vote, 20% said it would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition and 8% said the scandal would make them more likely to vote for the Coalition. [27]

Possibility of a hung parliament

It was widely predicted that the election would lead to a hung parliament, meaning that a party wishing to form government must obtain confidence and supply from crossbenchers. The Greens were almost certain to side with Labor, while the three ex-Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party independents would have likely sided with the Coalition. Three other independents (Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr) had given confidence and supply to the Coalition. After the election, the three confirmed that they would give confidence and supply to Labor should it be required, as Labor only won 45 seats, two seats short of a majority. [28]

Campaign

On 12 January Premier Dominic Perrottet revealed that he had worn a Nazi uniform as fancy dress at his 21st birthday, apologising at a media conference after a cabinet minister was made aware of the incident. This announcement received extensive media coverage. [29] [30] Despite the scandal, Perrottet received the support of his ministerial colleagues, and Labor leader Chris Minns chose not to call for Perrottet's resignation. [31] [32] Robert Borsak, the leader of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, publicly threatened to refer Perrottet to police over the incident. [33] On 5 March 2023, NSW Labor Party had their official campaign launch. [34]

On 9 March a significant outage of the Sydney rail network caused by a communications failure saw Perrottet to apologise to customers and offer a fare-free day. [35]

On 11 March the Greens NSW had their campaign launch, where they listed their balance of power objectives. [36]

On 12 March the Liberal Party had their official campaign launch. [37] [38]

On 14 March confidential documents from KPMG and Clayton Utz consultants regarding the privatisation of Sydney Water were made public. Perrottet, who was the Treasurer at the time had previously declared in March 2020 that he had no plans to even do a study on privatisation, but the documents revealed that studies had taken place in January 2020 and later in November 2021, with the reporting making it clear the study was done due to direct pressure from the Government. [39] The issue was widely discussed in Sydney newspapers and on right-wing talkback radio where commentators slammed the potential privatisation and declared that Perrottet was lying about his "lack of plans" to privatise Sydney Water.

On 21 March it was reported that Perrottet had been accused of seeking special treatment via the health minister when requesting ambulance services. [40] [41] [42]

Labor recommended its supporters preference the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party to counter One Nation in some seats. [43]

Policies

In the 2023 New South Wales election campaign, Chris Minns and Labor made election promises to invest further into public services. [44]

Minns has been criticised for being reluctant to promise reform on money laundering in gambling, [45] however on 16 January Minns released a plan to reform gambling, banning donations from clubs (gambling organisations) to political parties and promising a cashless gaming card trial, which would last for 12 months and cover 500 of the approximately 86,480 (0.58%) pokies machines (slots). [46] [47] Dominic Perrottet and the Liberals announced plans to introduce a cashless gaming card for pokie machines in clubs and pubs in NSW, [48] but a transition period where non-metropolitan pokies may be excluded from the pilot program has been discussed. [49]

One Nation ran on a platform of nuclear power and parental rights. [50]

NSW Labor pledged to enshrine government ownership of Sydney Water in the NSW state constitution, [51] [52] a similar move that the Victorian government was doing with the state's SEC.

Leaders' debates

The first leaders' debate was held on Thursday, 9 February 2023 on 2GB. Perrottet was declared the winner, with the support 65% of voters in an online poll following the debate. [53]

A Channel 7 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 8 March 2023. [54]

A Channel 9 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 15 March 2023. [55] [56]

A Sky News Australia leaders debate was held on 22 March 2023. [57]

2023 New South Wales state election debates
DateOrganizersModerators P  PresentReferences
Perrottet Minns
9 February
05:30 AEDT
2GB Radio Sydney Ben Fordham PP [58]
8 March
12:00 AEDT
Seven News/Channel 7Amelia BracePP [54]
15 March
12:00 AEDT
Nine News/Channel 9
Sydney Morning Herald
Peter Overton PP
22 March
19:30 AEDT
Sky News Australia
Daily Telegraph
Kieran GilbertPP [59]

Redistribution

Comparison between the old and new electoral district boundaries, coloured by party vote in the 2019 state election 2015 and 2023 New South Wales Legislative Assembly electoral district boundaries map by 2019 notional results.gif
Comparison between the old and new electoral district boundaries, coloured by party vote in the 2019 state election

The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors. [60]

In November 2020 the proposed redistribution names and boundaries were released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted. [61]

The Labor-held district of Lakemba was abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney was created from Camden and Macquarie Fields. [61]

A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries: [61]

The Liberal-held Heathcote took in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and became a notionally marginal Labor seat. [62]

Current seat2019 electionNew seat2021 redistribution
PartyMemberMarginPartyMemberMargin*
Baulkham Hills Liberal David Elliott 18.68 Kellyville LiberalNotional23.1
Heathcote Liberal Lee Evans 4.96 Heathcote LaborNotional1.7
Ku-ring-gai Liberal Alister Henskens 20.52 Wahroonga LiberalNotional19.0
Lakemba Labor Jihad Dib 22.42Abolished
New seat Leppington LaborNotional1.5
Mulgoa Liberal Tanya Davies 10.13 Badgerys Creek LiberalNotional9.7
Seven Hills Liberal Mark Taylor 6.36 Winston Hills LiberalNotional5.7
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results.

Registered parties

Fifteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC). [63] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Results

Winning party by electorate. 2023 New South Wales state election - Legislative Assembly results.svg
Winning party by electorate.

Legislative Assembly

Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV) [64] [65] [66] [67]
2023 New South Wales Legislative Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 1,738,08136.97+3.6645Increase2.svg 9
   Liberal 1,259,25326.78–5.2125Decrease2.svg 10
  National 403,9628.59–1.0011Decrease2.svg 2
Coalition total 1,663,21535.37–6.2136Decrease2.svg 12
  Greens 455,9609.70+0.133Steady2.svg
  Sustainable Australia 104,6972.23+0.690Steady2.svg
  One Nation 84,6831.80+0.700Steady2.svg
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 73,3591.56–1.900Decrease2.svg 3
  Legalise Cannabis 60,0571.28+1.280Steady2.svg
  Animal Justice 51,5481.10–0.420Steady2.svg
  Liberal Democrats 39,4800.84+0.610Steady2.svg
  Informed Medical Options 11,5290.25+0.250Steady2.svg
  Public Education 4,1500.09+0.090Steady2.svg
  Small Business 2,0250.04−0.030Steady2.svg
  Socialist Alliance 1,4640.03+0.000Steady2.svg
  Independents 411,6828.76+3.989Increase2.svg 6
 Formal votes4,701,93096.72+0.18
 Informal votes159,2183.28−0.18
 Total4,861,14893
 Registered voters / turnout5,521,68888.04−2.96
Two-party-preferred vote
Labor 2,202,92254.27+6.29
Coalition 1,856,22745.73–6.29

Seats changing hands

Italics denotes MPs who did not contest at this election.

SeatPre-electionSwingPost-election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bankstown One Nation Tania Mihailuk [lower-alpha 3] 20.5–0.1 to LIB20.3 Jihad Dib Labor
Camden Liberal Peter Sidgreaves 7.310.33.0 Sally Quinnell Labor
Drummoyne Independent John Sidoti [lower-alpha 4] 13.6–12.6 to ALP1.0 Stephanie Di Pasqua Liberal
East Hills Liberal Wendy Lindsay 0.11.81.7 Kylie Wilkinson Labor
Heathcote [lower-alpha 5] Liberal Lee Evans −1.78.39.9 Maryanne Stuart Labor
Monaro National Nichole Overall 11.613.92.3 Steve Whan Labor
Parramatta Liberal Geoff Lee 6.515.08.6 Donna Davis Labor
Penrith Liberal Stuart Ayres 0.62.21.6 Karen McKeown Labor
Riverstone Liberal Kevin Conolly 6.29.93.7 Warren Kirby Labor
South Coast Liberal Shelley Hancock 10.614.33.8 Liza Butler Labor
Wakehurst Liberal Brad Hazzard 21.9N/A4.5 Michael Regan Independent
Wollondilly Liberal Nathaniel Smith 6.07.61.5 Judy Hannan Independent

The statewide swing against the Coalition (and the swing to Labor) was highly concentrated in Sydney (particularly in Western Sydney) and on the South Coast. The Nationals lost just one seat (Monaro) and had swings against them in several National strongholds on the Mid North Coast and in the New South Wales countryside. No seats north of the Central Coast changed hands. Both Coalition parties ran candidates in the electorates of Port Macquarie (held by National-turned-Liberal MP Leslie Williams) and Wagga Wagga (held by independent member Joe McGirr). In Port Macquarie (which is a conservative seat even by regional standards), both Coalition parties made the two-party-preferred contest and Williams was re-elected as a Liberal. In Wagga Wagga, McGirr easily defeated the Nationals in the two-party-preferred contest.

Ultimately Labor gained four seats from the Coalition (Camden, Monaro, Parramatta and South Coast) due to swings of over 10 percentage points toward Labor and one seat (Riverstone) due to a swing of over 10 points against the Coalition on first-preference votes. On two-party-preferred measures Labor received a swing against them in five of their own seats (Bankstown, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Shellharbour and Summer Hill), as well as in eight Coalition-held seats (Albury, Badgerys Creek, Bathurst, Coffs Harbour, Cootamundra, Dubbo, Myall Lakes and Upper Hunter). The swing in Liverpool was 9.0 points to the Liberals, bucking the trend set by several other Sydney seats where swings against the Liberals were close to or larger than this.

Despite winning many federal seats in Sydney in 2022, only one teal independent (Judy Hannan in Wollondilly) won a seat at this election. This is likely due to optional preferential voting in New South Wales, meaning voters only need to number one box on the ballot paper (but can choose to number more), as preferences were vital for teal successes at the federal election. However, independents not affiliated with Climate 200 did win several seats; Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan gained the seat of Wakehurst from the Liberal Party and several other independents retained their seats (including the SFF-turned-independent members for Barwon, Orange and Murray, as well as the independent members of Lake Macquarie, Sydney and Wagga Wagga). Gareth Ward, a suspended Liberal MP turned independent, successfully held on to his seat of Kiama. The seat of Drummoyne (held by fellow suspended-Liberal-turned-independent John Sidoti, who did not seek re-election) was won by the Liberal challenger Stephanie Di Pasqua, technically retaining the seat for the Coalition, [lower-alpha 6] despite a 12.1% swing to Labor on two-party-preferred preferences.

All three seats held by the Greens were retained, although the party did not gain any seats. They did, however, finish second to Labor in Summer Hill. The seat of Balmain had a swing to Labor on two-party-preferred measures, while the Greens had swings to them in the two-party-preferred contests in their other two seats; Ballina (against the Nationals) and Newtown (against Labor).

One Nation, despite having a statewide swing to them, failed to win as many votes as predicted. However, the party finished second to Labor in Cessnock, a seat where the National Party candidate was disendorsed during the campaign for sexist and racist social media posts. [68]

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party had a statewide swing against them. While they did formerly hold three seats (Barwon, Orange and Murray), the members for these seats defected and became independents over disagreements with the party's leader, Robert Borsak.

On 8 April, two weeks after the election, Liberal Jordan Lane was declared the winner in Ryde, by just 50 votes over Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. [69] This was the last seat to be called, while also ending up as the most marginal seat post-election, sitting at just 0.01% for the Coalition. A recount was held on 15 April 2023, increasing the Liberal lead to 54 votes. [70]

Legislative Council

Legislative Council (STV) – Quota 209,858 – (CV) [71] [72] [73] [74]
2023 New South Wales Legislative Council.svg
PartyVotes %Swing2023 seats2019 seatsTotal seatsChange
  Labor 1,690,44536.61+6.938715Increase2.svg 1
  Liberal/National joint ticket 1,374,85729.78–5.047815Decrease2.svg 2
  Greens 419,3469.08–0.64224Increase2.svg 1
  One Nation 273,4965.92–0.97123Increase2.svg 1
  Legalise Cannabis 169,4823.67+3.67101Increase2.svg 1
  Liberal Democrats 162,7553.53+1.35101Increase2.svg 1
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 144,0433.12–2.42112Steady2.svg
  Animal Justice 101,1832.19+0.24011Decrease2.svg 1
  Elizabeth Farrelly Independents 61,1631.32−0.51000Steady2.svg
  Family First 58,3611.26+1.26000Steady2.svg
  Sustainable Australia 42,9020.93–0.53000Steady2.svg
  Australia One 35,8880.78+0.78000Steady2.svg
  Public Education 34,5230.75+0.75000Steady2.svg
  Informed Medical Options 21,3620.46+0.46000Steady2.svg
  Socialist Alliance 17,0560.37+0.05000Steady2.svg
  United Australia 3,8910.08+0.08000Steady2.svg
  Revive Australia 2,5070.05+0.05000Decrease2.svg 1
  Independent 1,3560.03+0.03000Steady2.svg
 Ungrouped9650.02+0.02000Decrease2.svg 1
 Call To Freedom7220.02+0.02000Steady2.svg
 Christians For Community3060.01+0.01000Steady2.svg
  Socialist Equality 2490.01+0.01000Steady2.svg
 Formal votes4,616,85894.31+0.66
 Informal votes278,4775.69−0.66
Total4,895,335100.00212142
 Registered voters / turnout5,521,68888.66−0.78

Electoral pendulums

Pre-election pendulum

This is an excerpt of the pre-election pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green. [75] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Liberal/National seats (46)
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB0.1%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell [lower-alpha 7] NAT0.5% [lower-alpha 8]
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB0.6%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB3.1%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT5.0%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB5.7%
Fairly safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB6.0%
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB6.2%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB6.5%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB6.8%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB7.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB8.9%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT9.3%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB9.7%
Safe
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB10.6%
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT10.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB11.3%
Monaro Nichole Overall [lower-alpha 9] NAT11.6% [lower-alpha 10]
Kiama Gareth Ward (IND)LIB12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB12.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti (IND)LIB13.6%
Labor seats (38)
Marginal
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP0.1%
Leppington new seatALP1.5%
Heathcote Lee Evans (LIB)ALP1.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP2.0%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP2.3%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP3.0%
Bega Michael Holland [lower-alpha 11] ALP5.1% [lower-alpha 12]
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li [lower-alpha 13] ALP5.2% [lower-alpha 14]
The Entrance David Mehan ALP5.3%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP7.1%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP8.3%
Crossbench seats (9)
Murray Helen Dalton (IND)SFF2.8% v NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN4.9% v NAT
Barwon Roy Butler (IND)SFF6.6% v NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN10.0% v ALP
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN11.4% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND11.8% v LIB
Orange Philip Donato (IND)SFF15.2% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND15.5% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND23.2% v ALP

Post-election pendulum

This is the post-election pendulum, based on the preliminary results of the election. [76]

Labor seats (45)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Penrith Karen McKeown ALP1.6%
East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP1.7%
Monaro Steve Whan ALP2.3% v NAT
Camden Sally Quinell ALP3.0%
Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP3.7%
South Coast Liza Butler ALP3.8%
Fairly safe
The Entrance David Mehan ALP7.8%
Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP8.4%
Parramatta Donna Davis ALP8.6%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP8.7%
Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP8.9%
Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP9.9%
Safe
Bega Michael Holland ALP10.4%
Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP11.8%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP12.3%
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP13.1%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP13.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP15.0% v NAT
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP15.4%
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP15.4%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP15.4%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP16.3% v GRN
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP17.1% v IND
Very Safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP18.3%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP18.6%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP18.7%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP19.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP19.1%
Wyong David Harris ALP19.8%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP19.9%
Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP20.3%
Fairfield David Saliba ALP20.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP21.1%
Granville Julia Finn ALP21.5%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP21.9%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP22.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP22.6%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP23.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP23.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP23.4% v ONP
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP24.0%
Keira Ryan Park ALP24.2%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP24.3%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP25.8%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP31.8%
Liberal/National seats (36)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Ryde Jordan Lane LIB0.1% [lower-alpha 15]
Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB0.4%
Pittwater Rory Amon LIB0.7% v IND
Oatley Mark Coure LIB0.8%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB1.2%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB1.3%
Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB1.3%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB1.8%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB2.3%
Willoughby Tim James LIB2.6% v IND
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT3.6%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT3.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB4.8%
Manly James Griffin LIB4.8% v IND
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB5.5%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB5.7% v IND
Fairly safe
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB8.0%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB9.8%
Safe
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB10.5%
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB10.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams LIB10.8% v NAT [lower-alpha 16]
Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB10.9%
Kellyville Ray Williams LIB11.0%
Oxley Michael Kemp NAT12.8%
Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB12.9% v IND
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT13.2%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB13.8%
Davidson Matt Cross LIB13.9%
Clarence Richie Williamson NAT14.3%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT15.8% v IND
Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT15.8%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB16.3%
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT18.6%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT23.6%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT32.1%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT33.8%
Crossbench seats (12)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Kiama Gareth Ward IND0.8% v ALP
Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND1.5% v LIB
Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst Michael Regan IND4.5% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN12.1% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND15.6% v ALP
Barwon Roy Butler IND16.0% v NAT
Murray Helen Dalton IND16.0% v NAT
Very safe
Orange Philip Donato IND21.9% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND22.4% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND24.1% v ALP

Notes

  1. Labor won the Liberal-held seat of Bega in February 2022, putting their total at 37 seats. In October 2022 Labor MP for Bankstown resigned from the party (later joining One Nation), bringing the total Labor seats back to 36.
  2. Since the previous election the Liberal Party has had two sitting MPs resign from the party (John Sidoti, Gareth Ward) and lost the 2022 Bega by-election.
  3. Mihailuk resigned from the Labor Party in 2022, becoming an independent. She later joined One Nation to contest the Legislative Council.
  4. Sidoti was sacked from the Liberal Party in 2021 and was suspended from parliament for corruption.
  5. Heathcote was notionally a marginal Labor seat following a redistribution.
  6. Sidoti ran and won as the Liberal nominee in 2019 before being suspended.
  7. Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  8. While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
  9. Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
  10. While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
  11. Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
  12. The margin used in the pendulum is Labor's winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
  13. Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
  14. While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.
  15. Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
  16. At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs Labor margin is 16.7%.

Candidates and retiring MPs

The following members announced they would not be contesting the 2023 election:

Labor

Liberal

Nationals

Independent

Other

Polling

Voting intention

Graphical summary

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the 2019 election. Local regression trends for each party.

Primary vote

NSW Primary Vote Opinion Polls Graph 2019-2023.png

Two party preferred

NSW Two-Party Preferred Opinion Polls Graph 2019-2023.png

Opinion polls

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote [lower-alpha 3]
LIBNATALPGRN SFF ONP OTHUNDL/NPALP
24 March 2023Newspoll [104] 35%*38%11%16%45.5%54.5%
22 March 2023Freshwater Strategy [105] 37%*37%10%16%47%53%
19 March 2023Resolve Strategic [106] 38%*38%8%16%
10–14 March 2023Roy Morgan [107] 34%*34%13%2%17%46.5%53.5%
24–28 February 2023Roy Morgan [108] 32.5%*33.5%11%8.5%14.5%47.5%52.5%
28 February 2023Resolve Strategic [109] 32%*38%11%20%
27 February 2023Freshwater Strategy [110] 37%*39%10%1%13%47%53%
26 February 2023Newspoll [111] 37%*36%12%15%48%52%
21 February 2023Roy Morgan [112] 35%*32.5%9.5%1.5%6.5%15% [lower-alpha 4] 48%52%
31 January 2023Roy Morgan [113] 33.5%*33.5%12%1%4.5%15.5% [lower-alpha 5] 45%55%
22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [114] 34%*37%12%2%16%
14–17 January 2023YouGov [115] 33%*39%11%17%44%56%
20 December 2022Roy Morgan [116] 37%*35%11.5%1.5%5%10% [lower-alpha 6] 48%52%
16 November 2022Private polling [117] [lower-alpha 7] 33%4%40%9%1%6%7% [lower-alpha 8]
October 2022Roy Morgan [116] 32%*36.5%9.5%1%5.5%13% [lower-alpha 9] 43%57%
30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [118] 35%*38%11%1%15%
13–16 October 2022Freshwater Strategy [119] 36%*37%11%1%15%46%54%
September 2022Roy Morgan [116] 34%*34%12.5%1%3.5%15.5% [lower-alpha 10] 47%53%
23 September 2022Newspoll [120] 35%*40%12%13%46%54%
18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [121] 30%*43%10%2%15%
12 September 2022Essential [122] 36.4%*32%8.5%13%
2 July 2022Essential [123] 37%*33%
20 February 2022Resolve Strategic [124] 37%*34%8%2%19%
25 November 2021Resolve Strategic [125] 41%*31%10%2%16%
5 October 2021 Dominic Perrottet succeeds Gladys Berejiklian as Liberal leader and Premier
23 September 2021Resolve Strategic [126] 41%*30%11%2%16%
18 July 2021Resolve Strategic [127] 43%*28%12%1%16%
4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
16 May 2021Resolve Strategic [128] 44%*28%12%4%12%
March 2021Redbridge [129] [130] [131] 37.0%3.1%23.9%6.7%0.8%4.3%5.3%18.9%59%41% [132]
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
23 March 2019 election 32.0%9.6%33.3%9.6%3.5%1.1%11.0%52.0%48.0%
22 March 2019 Newspoll 41%*35%10%14%51%49% [lower-alpha 11]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [133]
  1. Farlow assumed the casual vacancy created by Natasha Maclaren-Jones following the election. [96]
  2. Bromhead died on 16 March 2023.
  3. Resolve Strategic and Essential do not calculate TPP vote.
  4. "teal independents" 0.5%, Animal Justice 1.5%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, Other parties/independents 11.5%
  5. UAP 1.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, Other parties 10.5%
  6. Animal Justice 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis 0.5%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, UAP 0.5%, Independents 5.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2%
  7. Polling was conducted by an unnamed industry group.
  8. Includes "teal independents" at 4%
  9. Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Liberal Democrats 1%, UAP 1%, Independents 8.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Other parties 1.5%
  10. Animal Justice 1.5%, Legalise Cannabis 2%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, UAP 1%, Independents 7.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2%
  11. Preference allocation based on previous election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Graphical summary

Better Premier
Perrottet approval rating
Minns approval rating

Polling

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
DateFirmBetter PremierPerrottetMinns
Perrottet Minns SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
24 March 2023Newspoll [104] 39%41%44%47%47%33%
22 March 2023Freshwater Strategy [105] 46%40%not askednot asked
21 March 2023Essential [134] 36%33%not askednot asked
19 March 2023Resolve Strategic [106] 40%34%52%32%46%26%
28 February 2023Resolve Strategic [109] 38%34%45%40%43%28%
27 February 2023Freshwater Strategy [110] 46%34%not askednot asked
26 February 2023Newspoll [111] 43%33%50%41%41%33%
21 February 2023Essential [135] not asked45%42%37%26%
1–6 February 2023SEC Newgate [136] 34%27%not askednot asked
7 February 2023Essential [137] not asked51%33%38%25%
24 January 2023Essential [138] not asked47%36%38%27%
22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [114] 33%29%not askednot asked
16 November 2022Private polling [117] not asked39%47%42%27%
30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [118] 30%29%not askednot asked
13–16 October 2022Freshwater Strategy [119] 38%41%37%35%26%15%
23 September 2022Newspoll [120] 39%35%47%41%42%27%
18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [121] 28%28%not askednot asked
2 July 2022Essential [123] not asked49%35%39%22%
20 February 2022Resolve Strategic [124] 29%32%not askednot asked
25 November 2021Resolve Strategic [125] 34%23%not askednot asked
20–24 October 2021Essential [139] not asked47%28%not asked
5 October 2021 Perrottet replaces Berejiklian as Premier Berejiklian MinnsBerejiklianMinns
23 September 2021Resolve Strategic [126] 48%21%not askednot asked
15–18 September 2021Newspoll [140] not asked56%40%not asked
28 July 2021Utting Research [141] not asked56%33%not asked
18 July 2021Resolve Strategic [127] 55%16%not askednot asked
4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition LeaderBerejiklian McKay BerejiklianMcKay
16 May 2021Resolve Strategic [128] 57%17%50%17%13%21%
11–16 November 2020Essential [142] not asked75%17%not asked
28 October – 2 November 2020Essential [143] not asked68%21%not asked
21–23 October 2020Ipsos [144] [145] 58%19%64%16%22%25%
14–19 October 2020Essential [146] not asked67%22%not asked
16–17 October 2020YouGov [147] not asked68%26%not asked
15–18 July 2020Newspoll [148] not asked64%30%not asked
24–28 June 2020Newspoll [149] not asked68%26%not asked
21–26 April 2020Newspoll [150] not asked69%23%not asked
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition LeaderBerejiklian Daley BerejiklianDaley
23 March 2019 election
22 March 2019Newspoll43%35%43%42%32%49%
19 March 2019YouGov–Galaxy [151] 38%36%not asked
10 March 2019Newspoll [152] 41%34%44%38%37%38%
10 March 2019UComms–ReachTEL [153] [154] 46.7%53.3%not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [133]

Electoral district polling

DateFirmElectorateVoting intention 2cp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP SFF IND OTH L/NP ALP IND
Mar 2023Freshwater Strategy Riverstone 46%54%
Mar 2023 Climate 200 North Shore 50.7%49.3%
27 Feb–
2 Mar 2023
Redbridge Group Parramatta 46%54%
Penrith 51%49%
27 Feb 2023Freshwater Strategy [155] Pittwater 41%16%4%30%9%52%48%
Jan 2023Internal polling [156] Holsworthy 51%49%
Londonderry 49%51%
Penrith 50%50%
Riverstone 52%48%
Winston Hills 45%55%
Mar 2023 Sky News [157] [158] Goulburn 35%33%9%5%13%
Hornsby 37%21%15%58%42%
Leppington 32%40%7%16%48%52%
North Shore 34%10%12%28%46%54%
Penrith 51%49%
Wakehurst 41%11%3%37%50%50%
Winston Hills 59%41%

Newspaper endorsements

In the lead-up to elections, many newspapers publish editorial endorsements. The Coalition received support from several newspapers during the 2023 campaign which has been the case since the 2011 election. Nine Entertainment's Sydney Morning Herald endorsed the Coalition, stating that they believed the Coalition leader, Dominic Perrottet, should be given the opportunity to demonstrate his abilities to the people of NSW. The Daily Telegraph did not publish an editorial, but one of its columnists, Vikki Campion, warned that a Labor victory could result in "wasted money and efforts on feasibility studies, planning, and designs for safer roads and better dams." The Australian and The Australian Financial Review, both national mastheads, also endorsed the Coalition, with the latter citing their belief that the Coalition offered the best chance for getting "New South Wales through the national economic downturn and into a new phase of growth." Meanwhile, the Illawarra Mercury did not explicitly endorse a party but emphasised to readers, "there's a very real chance of a change of government on Saturday, and you might want to play your part." [159] [160] [161] [162] [163]

NewspaperCityOwnerEndorsement
Illawarra Mercury WollongongAustralian Community MediaChange of government [160]
Sky News Australia NationwideAustralian News ChannelOne Nation [164]
The Daily Telegraph SydneyNews CorpCoalition [159]
The Australian SydneyNews CorpCoalition [161]
The Australian Financial Review SydneyNine EntertainmentCoalition [162]
The Sydney Morning Herald SydneyNine EntertainmentCoalition [163]

See also

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