Post-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election

Last updated

The following is the post-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election. It is based on notional margins calculated by psephologist Kevin Bonham. [1]

Contents

Post-election pendulum

This is the post-election pendulum, based on the results of the election. [2]

Labor seats (45)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Penrith Karen McKeown ALP1.6%
East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP1.7%
Monaro Steve Whan ALP2.3% v NAT
Camden Sally Quinell ALP3.0%
Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP3.7%
South Coast Liza Butler ALP3.8%
Fairly safe
The Entrance David Mehan ALP7.8%
Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP8.4%
Parramatta Donna Davis ALP8.6%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP8.7%
Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP8.9%
Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP9.9%
Safe
Bega Michael Holland ALP10.4%
Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP11.8%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP12.3%
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP13.1%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP13.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP15.0% v NAT
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP15.4%
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP15.4%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP15.4%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP16.3% v GRN
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP17.1% v IND
Very Safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP18.3%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP18.6%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP18.7%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP19.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP19.1%
Wyong David Harris ALP19.8%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP19.9%
Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP20.3%
Fairfield David Saliba ALP20.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP21.1%
Granville Julia Finn ALP21.5%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP21.9%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP22.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP22.6%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP23.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP23.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP23.4% v ONP
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP24.0%
Keira Ryan Park ALP24.2%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP24.3%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP25.8%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP31.8%
Liberal/National seats (36)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Ryde Jordan Lane LIB0.1% [a]
Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB0.4%
Pittwater Rory Amon LIB0.7% v IND
Oatley Mark Coure LIB0.8%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB1.2%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB1.3%
Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB1.3%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB1.8%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB2.3%
Willoughby Tim James LIB2.6% v IND
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT3.6%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT3.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB4.8%
Manly James Griffin LIB4.8% v IND
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB5.5%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB5.7% v IND
Fairly safe
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB8.0%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB9.8%
Safe
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB10.5%
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB10.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams LIB10.8% v NAT [b]
Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB10.9%
Kellyville Ray Williams LIB11.0%
Oxley Michael Kemp NAT12.8%
Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB12.9% v IND
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT13.2%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB13.8%
Davidson Matt Cross LIB13.9%
Clarence Richie Williamson NAT14.3%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT15.8% v IND
Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT15.8%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB16.3%
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT18.6%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT23.6%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT32.1%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT33.8%
Crossbench seats (12)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Kiama Gareth Ward IND0.8% v ALP
Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND1.5% v LIB
Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst Michael Regan IND4.5% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN12.1% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND15.6% v ALP
Barwon Roy Butler IND16.0% v NAT
Murray Helen Dalton IND16.0% v NAT
Very safe
Orange Philip Donato IND21.9% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND22.4% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND24.1% v ALP

Notes

  1. ↑ Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
  2. ↑ At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs Labor margin is 16.7%.

References

  1. ↑ Bonham, Kevin (13 May 2023). "Dr Kevin Bonham: New South Wales 2023: Final Results, Poll Accuracy And 2PP Pendulum". Dr Kevin Bonham. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  2. ↑ "NSWEC Election Results". Past Virtual Tally Room. New South Wales Electoral Commission . Retrieved 27 October 2025.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.