2027 New South Wales state election

2027 New South Wales state election

←  2023 13 March 2027 [1] 2031 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Chris Minns Mark Speakman No leader Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens Leader since 4 June 2021 21 April 2023 N/A Leader's seat Kogarah Cronulla N/A Last election 45 seats, 36.97% 36 seats, 35.37% 3 seats, 9.70% Current seats 46 35 3 Seats needed 1 12 44
Incumbent Premier Chris Minns Labor

The 2027 New South Wales state election will be held on 13 March 2027 to elect the 59th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

The incumbent Labor minority government, led by Premier Chris Minns, will seek to win a second four-year term in office. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National coalition, led by opposition leader Mark Speakman. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Background

At the previous state election held in 2023, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Chris Minns, won the election after spending 12 years in opposition. The election saw Labor win 45 seats as opposed to the Coalition's 36 seats on election day, allowing Labor to form a minority government. The Greens retained their three seats, while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers lost all three of their seats as a result of their MPs resigning from the party to become independents in the 2019–2023 parliament, as well as two independents who gained seats. ^[2]

In the Legislative Council (the upper house), 21 of the 42 seats were up for election. Both the Coalition and Labor won 15 seats each, however after the election of Ben Franklin as President of the Legislative Council, the Coalition's effective total vote on the floor on the council was reduced to 14. ^[3] The Greens won four seats in the Legislative Council. ^[4] One Nation won three seats, which is its largest representation in New South Wales and currently its largest in any Australian state or territory parliament. ^[4] Meanwhile, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party retained its two seats, ^[4] the Animal Justice Party lost one of its two seats ^[4] and two parties (the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Libertarian Party, which was registered as the Liberal Democrats in 2023) won their first ever seats in the New South Wales Parliament. ^[4]

During the 2023–2027 term of parliament, the government announced plans to rezone and activate Woollahra station, which is part of the T4 eastern suburbs line but was never completed due to local opposition in an effort to solve housing supply issues ^[5] and announced major housing policies (such as transit-oriented development, the creation of a Housing Delivery Authority to expedite approvals and banned no-fault evictions for renters as well as capping rent increases to once per year), ^{[6] [7] [8]} and increased teachers' wages to attract more people to the profession. ^[9] They have also acted upon a pledge at the previous election to abolish the land tax introduced by former premier Dominic Perrottet. ^[10] The government have also set in train processes to create new national parks based upon previous election pledges, those being in Georges River for Koalas and one in the North Coast to create a "Great Koala National Park". ^{[11] [12]}

The Coalition opposition have proposed building new metro lines. ^[13]

Since the 2023 state election, there have been six by-elections: in Northern Tablelands, ^[14] Pittwater, ^[15] Epping, ^[15] Hornsby, ^[16] Port Macquarie ^[17] and Kiama. ^[18] As a result of these by-elections, Labor's share of seats increased by one to 46, one short of a majority, the Liberal seat count was reduced by one to 35, and independent representation increased by one to nine seats.

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March, ^[19] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

Additionally, section 24B, paragraph four of the Constitution Act 1902 states that "The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved within 2 months before the Assembly is due to expire if the general election would otherwise be required to be held during the same period as a Commonwealth election, during a holiday period or at any other inconvenient time." ^[20] Since 27 March 2027 is Holy Saturday, the government has announced that an election will be held on 13 March. ^[1] Two months before this date is 27 January 2027; however, since all Australian elections must by law take place on a Saturday, the earliest possible date for the 2027 New South Wales state election (other than by early dissolution) is Saturday 30 January 2027.

Pre-election pendulum

Extended content

Labor seats (45) Seat Member Party Margin Marginal Penrith Karen McKeown ALP 1.6% East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP 1.8% Monaro Steve Whan ALP 2.4% v NAT Camden Sally Quinnell ALP 2.9% South Coast Liza Butler ALP 3.7% Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP 3.7% Fairly safe The Entrance David Mehan ALP 7.8% Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP 8.4% Parramatta Donna Davis ALP 8.5% Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP 8.7% Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 8.8% Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP 9.9% Safe Bega Michael Holland ALP 10.4% Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP 11.8% Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 12.2% Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP 13.1% Londonderry Prue Car ALP 13.6% Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 15.0% v NAT Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 15.4% Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 15.4% Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 15.4% Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 17.1% v IND Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 16.8% v GRN Very safe Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 18.3% Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 18.6% Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 18.6% Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 19.0% Wyong David Harris ALP 19.2% Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 19.9% Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 20.1% Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP 20.3% Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 21.1% Fairfield David Saliba ALP 21.1% Granville Julia Finn ALP 21.5% Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 21.9% Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 22.3% Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 22.6% Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 23.2% Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 23.3% Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 23.4% v ONP Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 24% Keira Ryan Park ALP 24.3% Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 24.3% Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 25.7% Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 31.8% Liberal/National seats (36) Seat Member Party Margin Marginal Ryde Jordan Lane LIB 0.1% [a] Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB 0.4% Pittwater Jacqui Scruby IND 0.7% LIB v IND [b] Oatley Mark Coure LIB 0.8% Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 1.2% Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 1.3% Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB 1.3% Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 1.8% Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 2.3% Willoughby Tim James LIB 2.6% v IND Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.6% Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT 3.8% Manly James Griffin LIB 4.8% v IND Epping Monica Tudehope LIB 4.8% [c] Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 5.5% North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 5.6% v IND Fairly safe Hornsby James Wallace LIB 8.0% [d] Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 9.9% Safe Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB 10.5% Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 10.5% Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB 10.9% Kellyville Ray Williams LIB 10.9% Oxley Michael Kemp NAT 12.8% Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB 12.8% v IND Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 13.2% Davidson Matt Cross LIB 14.0% Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 14.0% Clarence Richie Williamson NAT 14.5% Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 15.8% v IND Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT 15.9% Albury Justin Clancy LIB 16.3% Port Macquarie Robert Dwyer LIB 16.7% [e] Very safe Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 18.7% Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 23.6% Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 32.3% Northern Tablelands Brendan Moylan NAT 33.8% [f] Crossbench seats (12) Seat Member Party Margin Marginal Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND 1.8% v LIB Kiama Katelin McInerney ALP 1.8% v ALP [g] Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN 1.8% v ALP Wakehurst Michael Regan IND 4.4% v LIB Fairly safe Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 7.7% v NAT Safe Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 12.1% v ALP Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 15.8% v ALP Murray Helen Dalton IND 16.0% v NAT Barwon Roy Butler IND 16% v NAT Very safe Orange Philip Donato IND 22.0% v NAT Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 22.2% v NAT Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 24.3% v ALP

Registered parties

Main article: List of political parties in Australia

Fifteen parties are registered with the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC). ^[21] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Animal Justice Family First Greens HEART Party Labor

Legalise Cannabis Liberals Libertarians (formerly Liberal Democrats) Nationals One Nation

Public Education Party Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party Small Business Socialist Alliance Sustainable Australia

Opinion polling

Primary vote opinion polling for the New South Wales 2027 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party. [Graph to be reviewed]

Two-party-preferred opinion polling for the New South Wales 2027 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party.

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					TPP vote
				ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
17–22 Oct 2025	DemosAU [22] [23]	1,016	±4.0%	37%	30%	13%	—	20%	59%	41%
9–13 Sep 2025	Resolve [24] [25] [h]			38%	28%	10%	11%	12%	59%	41%
13–18 Jul 2025	Resolve [26] [27] [h]	1,054		38%	32%	13%	8%	10%	57%	43%
Mar–14 Apr 2025	Resolve [28] [29] [i]	1,123		33%	36%	11%	14%	6%	51%	49%
24–26 Mar 2025	DemosAU [30] [31]	1,013	±4.0%	33%	34%	14%	—	19%	54%	46%
18–23 Feb 2025	Resolve [32] [33] [h]			29%	38%	14%	11%	8%	49%	51%
8 Dec 2024	Resolve [32]			33%	37%	11%	13%	7%	—	—
6–20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [34] [35]	1,088	±3.4%	37%	41%	9%	—	13%	50.5%	49.5%
Sep–Oct 2024	Resolve [36] [37] [h]	1,111		32%	37%	11%	14%	6%	50%	50%
6–29 Aug 2024	Wolf & Smith [38] [39]		±2.2%	32%	38%	12%	14%	4%	50%	50%
11 Aug 2024	Resolve [40] [41] [i]	1,000		30%	38%	12%	14%	6%	49%	51%
16 Jun 2024	Resolve [42] [43] [i]	1,000		32%	35%	11%	15%	7%	52%	48%
Feb–May 2024	Redbridge [44]	1,376		35%	40%	11%	—	14%	50.5%	49.5%
21 Mar–21 Apr 2024	Resolve [45] [j]	1,000		33%	36%	12%	14%	5%	52%	48%
25 Feb 2024	Resolve [46] [47] [i]	1,035		34%	38%	12%	12%	5%	51.5%	48.5%
11 Nov 2023	Resolve [48] [49] [i]	1,100		36%	32%	13%	12%	7%	57%	43%
10 Sep 2023	Resolve [50] [51] [i]	1,019		38%	36%	9%	13%	4%	54%	46%
16 Jul 2023	Resolve [52] [53] [i]	1,012		41%	32%	10%	11%	5%	58%	42%
14 May 2023	Resolve [54] [55] [i]	1,102		44%	31%	9%	10%	5%	60%	40%
25 Mar 2023	2023 election			37.0%	35.4%	9.7%	8.8%	9.2%	54.3%	45.7%

Legislative Council

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote
				ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	LCA	LBT	SFF	AJP	FFP	OTH
17–22 Oct 2025	DemosAU [22] [23]	1,016	±4.0%	30%	21%	13%	15%	3%	2%	1%	3%	5%	7% [k]
25 Mar 2023	2023 election			36.6%	29.8%	9.1%	5.9%	3.7%	3.5%	3.1%	2.2%	1.3%	4.8%

Date	Firm	Better Premier
		Minns	Speakman	Don't know	Net
17–22 Oct 2025	DemosAU [22] [23]	44%	25%	31%	+19%
9–13 Sep 2025	Resolve [24]	37%	16%	47%	+21%
13–18 Jul 2025	Resolve [26]	35%	16%	49%	+19%
Mar–22 Apr 2025	Resolve [28]	40%	15%	45%	+25%
24–26 Mar 2025	DemosAU [30]	42%	24%	34%	+18%
23 Feb 2025	Resolve [32]	35%	14%	51%	+21%
6 Oct 2024	Resolve [36]	37%	14%	49%	+23%
11 Aug 2024	Resolve [40]	38%	13%	49%	+25%
16 Jun 2024	Resolve [42]	38%	13%	49%	+25%
21 Apr 2024	Resolve [45]	37%	16%	47%	+21%
25 Feb 2024	Resolve [46]	35%	16%	51%	+19%
5 Nov 2023	Resolve [48]	35%	13%	52%	+22%
10 Sep 2023	Resolve [50]	41%	14%	45%	+27%
16 Jul 2023	Resolve [52]	39%	12%	49%	+27%
14 May 2023	Resolve [54]	42%	12%	46%	+30%

Leader satisfaction

Date	Firm	Minns				Speakman
		Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net
Feb–May 2024	Redbridge [44]	40%	20%	40%	+20%	19%	21%	60%	-2%

See also

• Members of the New South Wales Legislative Council, 2023–2027

Notes

1. Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
2. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Pittwater state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
3. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Epping state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
4. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Hornsby state by-election, for consistency.
5. The margin shown is the Liberal vs Labor margin at the 2023 election. At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs National margin is 10.8%. Both parties also contested the 2025 Port Macquarie state by-election and Labor did not. It is very rare for the Coalition to run two candidates in New South Wales and it is thus unlikely that this phenomenon will reoccur in 2027.
6. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
7. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2025 Kiama state by-election for consistency.
8. Two-party preferred result estimated by Kevin Bonham.
9. Two-party-preferred result estimated by William Bowe of The Poll Bludger.
10. Includes two-party preferred result estimate.
11. 7% for "other":
    • HEART Party: 1%
    • Public Education: 1%
    • Rod Roberts: 1%
    • Socialist Alliance: 1%
    • Sustainable Australia: 1%
    • Tania Mihailuk: 1%
    • The Small Business Party: 1%

References

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