2027 New South Wales state election

2027 New South Wales state election

←  2023 13 March 2027 [1] 2031 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Chris Minns Mark Speakman No leader Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens Leader since 4 June 2021 21 April 2023 N/A Leader's seat Kogarah Cronulla N/A Last election 45 seats, 36.97% 36 seats, 35.37% 3 seats, 9.70% Current seats 46 35 3 Seats needed 1 12 44
Incumbent Premier Chris Minns Labor

The 2027 New South Wales state election will be held on 13 March 2027 to elect the 59th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

The incumbent Labor minority government, led by Premier Chris Minns, will seek to win a second four-year term in office. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National coalition, led by opposition leader Mark Speakman. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Background

At the previous state election held in 2023, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Chris Minns, won the election after spending 12 years in Opposition. The election saw Labor win 45 seats to the Coalition's 36 seats on election day, allowing Labor to form an initial minority government. The Greens retained their three seats, while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers lost all three of their seats as a result of their MPs resigning from the party to become independents.

In the Legislative Council (the Upper House), 21 of the 42 seats were up for election. Both the Coalition and Labor won 15 seats each, however after the election of Ben Franklin as President of the Legislative Council, the Coalition's effective vote on the floor on the council was reduced to 14. ^[2] The Greens won 4 seats in the Legislative Council. One Nation won 3 seats, which is its largest representation in New South Wales and currently its largest in any Australian parliament (including the federal Parliament). Meanwhile, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party retained its two seats, the Animal Justice Party lost one of its two seats and two parties (the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Libertarian Party, which was registered as the Liberal Democrats in 2023) won their first ever seats in the New South Wales Parliament.

Since the 2023 state election, there have been six by-elections: in Northern Tablelands, Pittwater, Epping, Hornsby, Port Macquarie and Kiama. As a result of these by-elections, Labor's share of seats increased by one to 46, one short of a majority, the Liberal seat count was reduced by one to 35, and independents held 9 seats.

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March, ^[3] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier. Additionally, Section 24B, Paragraph 4 of the Constitution Act 1902 states that “The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved within 2 months before the Assembly is due to expire if the general election would otherwise be required to be held during the same period as a Commonwealth election, during a holiday period or at any other inconvenient time.” ^[4] Since 27 March 2027 is Holy Saturday, it is highly unlikely that an election will be held on this day, given the number of citizens of New South Wales who travel or are otherwise occupied during the Easter long weekend. Two months before this date is 27 January 2027; however, since all Australian elections must by law take place on a Saturday, the earliest possible date for the 2027 New South Wales state election (other than by early dissolution) is Saturday 30 January 2027. As of 18 February 2025, the NSW government's media statement was published advising that due to the Easter Holidays on 27 March 2027, it is being brought forward by two weeks early, 13 March 2027. The 2027 Election is the first time that the election has fallen on the Easter weekend since four-year term parliaments were approved by NSW electors at a referendum in 1995. ^[1]

Pre-election pendulum

Extended content

Labor seats (45) Seat Member Party Margin Marginal Penrith Karen McKeown ALP 1.6% East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP 1.8% Monaro Steve Whan ALP 2.4% v NAT Camden Sally Quinnell ALP 2.9% South Coast Liza Butler ALP 3.7% Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP 3.7% Fairly safe The Entrance David Mehan ALP 7.8% Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP 8.4% Parramatta Donna Davis ALP 8.5% Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP 8.7% Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 8.8% Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP 9.9% Safe Bega Michael Holland ALP 10.4% Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP 11.8% Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 12.2% Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP 13.1% Londonderry Prue Car ALP 13.6% Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 15.0% v NAT Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 15.4% Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 15.4% Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 15.4% Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 17.1% v IND Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 16.8% v GRN Very safe Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 18.3% Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 18.6% Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 18.6% Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 19.0% Wyong David Harris ALP 19.2% Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 19.9% Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 20.1% Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP 20.3% Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 21.1% Fairfield David Saliba ALP 21.1% Granville Julia Finn ALP 21.5% Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 21.9% Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 22.3% Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 22.6% Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 23.2% Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 23.3% Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 23.4% v ONP Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 24% Keira Ryan Park ALP 24.3% Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 24.3% Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 25.7% Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 31.8% Liberal/National seats (36) Seat Member Party Margin Marginal Ryde Jordan Lane LIB 0.1% [a] Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB 0.4% Pittwater Jacqui Scruby IND 0.7% LIB v IND [b] Oatley Mark Coure LIB 0.8% Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 1.2% Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 1.3% Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB 1.3% Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 1.8% Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 2.3% Willoughby Tim James LIB 2.6% v IND Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.6% Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT 3.8% Manly James Griffin LIB 4.8% v IND Epping Monica Tudehope LIB 4.8% [c] Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 5.5% North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 5.6% v IND Fairly safe Hornsby James Wallace LIB 8.0% [d] Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 9.9% Safe Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB 10.5% Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 10.5% Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB 10.9% Kellyville Ray Williams LIB 10.9% Oxley Michael Kemp NAT 12.8% Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB 12.8% v IND Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 13.2% Davidson Matt Cross LIB 14.0% Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 14.0% Clarence Richie Williamson NAT 14.5% Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 15.8% v IND Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT 15.9% Albury Justin Clancy LIB 16.3% Port Macquarie Robert Dwyer LIB 16.7% [e] Very safe Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 18.7% Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 23.6% Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 32.3% Northern Tablelands Brendan Moylan NAT 33.8% [f] Crossbench seats (12) Seat Member Party Margin Marginal Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND 1.8% v LIB Kiama Katelin McInerney ALP 1.8% v ALP [g] Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN 1.8% v ALP Wakehurst Michael Regan IND 4.4% v LIB Fairly safe Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 7.7% v NAT Safe Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 12.1% v ALP Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 15.8% v ALP Murray Helen Dalton IND 16.0% v NAT Barwon Roy Butler IND 16% v NAT Very safe Orange Philip Donato IND 22.0% v NAT Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 22.2% v NAT Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 24.3% v ALP

Registered parties

Main article: List of political parties in Australia

Fifteen parties are registered with the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC). ^[5] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Animal Justice Family First Greens HEART Party Labor

Legalise Cannabis Liberals Libertarians (formerly Liberal Democrats) Nationals One Nation

Public Education Party Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party Small Business Socialist Alliance Sustainable Australia

Opinion polling

Primary vote opinion polling for the New South Wales 2027 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party. [Graph to be reviewed]

Two-party-preferred opinion polling for the New South Wales 2027 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party.

Voting intention

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					TPP vote
				ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	L/NP
9–13 Sep 2025	Resolve [6] [7]			38%	28%	10%	—	23% [h]	59%	41%
13–18 Jul 2025	Resolve [8] [9] [i]	1,054		38%	32%	13%	—	18%	57%	43%
Mar–22 Apr 2025	Resolve [10] [11] [j]	1,123		33%	36%	11%	—	20%	51%	49%
24–26 Mar 2025	DemosAU [12] [13]	1,013	4.0%	33%	34%	14%	—	19%	54%	46%
18–23 Feb 2025	Resolve [14] [15] [i]			29%	38%	14%	—	19%	49%	51%
6–20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [16] [17]	1,088	3.4%	37%	41%	9%	—	13%	50.5%	49.5%
Sep–Oct 2024	Resolve [18] [19] [i]	1,111		32%	37%	11%	—	20%	50%	50%
6–29 Aug 2024	Wolf & Smith [20] [21]	2,047	2.2%	32%	38%	12%	—	18%	50%	50%
11 Aug 2024	Resolve [22] [23] [j]	1,000		30%	38%	12%	—	20%	49%	51%
16 Jun 2024	Resolve [24] [25] [j]	1,000		32%	35%	11%	—	22%	52%	48%
Feb–May 2024	Redbridge [26]	1,376		35%	40%	11%	—	14%	50.5%	49.5%
21 Mar–21 Apr 2024	Resolve [27] [k]	1,000		33%	36%	12%	—	19%	52%	48%
25 Feb 2024	Resolve [28] [29] [j]	1,035		34%	38%	12%	—	17%	51.5%	48.5%
11 Nov 2023	Resolve [30] [31] [j]	1,100		36%	32%	13%	—	19%	57%	43%
10 Sep 2023	Resolve [32] [33] [j]	1,019		38%	36%	9%	—	17%	54%	46%
16 Jul 2023	Resolve [34] [35] [j]	1,012		41%	32%	10%	—	16%	58%	42%
14 May 2023	Resolve [36] [37] [j]	1,102		44%	31%	9%	—	15%	60%	40%
25 Mar 2023	2023 election			37.0%	35.4%	9.7%	1.8%	16.2%	54.3%	45.7%

Date	Firm	Better Premier
		Minns	Speakman	Don't know	Net
9–13 Sep 2025	Resolve [6]	37%	16%	47%	+21%
13–18 Jul 2025	Resolve [8]	35%	16%	49%	+19%
Mar–22 Apr 2025	Resolve [10]	40%	15%	45%	+25%
24–26 Mar 2025	DemosAU [12]	42%	24%	34%	+18%
23 Feb 2025	Resolve [14]	35%	14%	51%	+21%
6 Oct 2024	Resolve [18]	37%	14%	49%	+23%
11 Aug 2024	Resolve [22]	38%	13%	49%	+25%
16 Jun 2024	Resolve [24]	38%	13%	49%	+25%
21 Apr 2024	Resolve [27]	37%	16%	47%	+21%
25 Feb 2024	Resolve [28]	35%	16%	51%	+19%
5 Nov 2023	Resolve [30]	35%	13%	52%	+22%
10 Sep 2023	Resolve [32]	41%	14%	45%	+27%
16 Jul 2023	Resolve [34]	39%	12%	49%	+27%
14 May 2023	Resolve [36]	42%	12%	46%	+30%

Leader satisfaction

Date	Firm	Minns				Speakman
		Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net
Feb–May 2024	Redbridge [26]	40%	20%	40%	+20%	19%	21%	60%	-2%

See also

• Members of the New South Wales Legislative Council, 2023–2027

Notes

1. Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
2. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Pittwater state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
3. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Epping state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
4. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Hornsby state by-election, for consistency.
5. The margin shown is the Liberal vs Labor margin at the 2023 election. At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs National margin is 10.8%. Both parties also contested the 2025 Port Macquarie state by-election and Labor did not. It is very rare for the Coalition to run two candidates in New South Wales and it is thus unlikely that this phenomenon will reoccur in 2027.
6. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
7. This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2025 Kiama state by-election for consistency.
8. Including independent and other votes.
9. Two-party preferred result estimated by Kevin Bonham.
10. Two-party-preferred result estimated by William Bowe of The Poll Bludger.
11. Includes two-party preferred result estimate.

References

1. Special Minister of State (18 February 2025). "NSW Government takes steps to avoid Easter long weekend clash with 2027 state election" (Press release). Premier's Department. Archived from the original on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 19 February 2025.
2. Wang, Jessica (9 May 2023). "Ben Franklin becomes NSW Legislative Council president after bitter saga". NCA NewsWire . Retrieved 10 May 2023– via news.com.au.
3. Lundie, Rob (1 September 2016). "'So when is the next election?': Australian elections timetable as at 1 September 2016". Research Paper Series, 2016–17. Australian Parliament. ISSN   1834-9854. Archived from the original on 16 September 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2023.
4. Constitution Act 1902 (NSW) s 24B
5. "State Register of Parties". NSW Electoral Commission. 13 February 2025. Retrieved 26 March 2023.
6. Smith, Alexandra (15 September 2025). "NSW Liberals vote plummets as brand damage hits state party" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 15 September 2025. Retrieved 15 September 2025.
7. Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (15 September 2025). "#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 28 Green 10 IND 11 others 12" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 16 September 2025. Retrieved 16 September 2025– via Twitter. My 2PP estimate 59.0 to ALP (+1.3) #nswpol
8. Smith, Alexandra (24 July 2025). "How the diabolical federal election result has hit the NSW Liberals" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 24 July 2025. Retrieved 24 July 2025.
9. Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (24 July 2025). "#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 GRN 13 IND 8 others 10. My 2PP estimate 57.7 to ALP (+5.4). Federal boost effect?" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 24 July 2025. Retrieved 24 July 2025– via Twitter.
10. McGowan, Michael (22 April 2025). "Revealed: What NSW voters really think of their schools and transport" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 21 April 2025. Retrieved 23 April 2025.
11. Bowe, William (20 June 2025). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 35, Greens 11 in New South Wales". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 24 May 2025. Retrieved 24 July 2025.
12. "NSW Poll Shows 2.4% Two-Party Swing to Coalition". demosau.com. 1 April 2025. Archived from the original on 2 April 2025. Retrieved 1 April 2025.
13. "New South Wales State Voting Intention Poll" (PDF). DemosAU. 1 April 2025. p. 2. Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 May 2025. Retrieved 2 April 2025.
14. Smith, Alexandra (25 February 2025). "Train dispute and chauffeur scandals: NSW Labor takes a hit" . The Sydney Morning Herald . Archived from the original on 25 February 2025. Retrieved 25 February 2025.
15. Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (25 February 2025). "#ResolvePM NSW(state) ALP 29 L-NP 38 GRN 14 IND 11* others 8 * On readout everywhere, would not get this at an election. My 2PP estimate (very rough) 51 to L-NP #nswpol" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 26 February 2025. Retrieved 25 February 2025– via Twitter.
16. O'Doherty, James (29 November 2024). "'Albo-tross': PM a huge drag on Minns govt, says new poll" . The Daily Telegraph . Sydney: News Corp Australia. Archived from the original on 28 November 2024. Retrieved 29 November 2024.
17. "NSW state vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. 26 November 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
18. Smith, Alexandra (9 October 2024). "Revealed: The NSW housing reform that has disappointed most voters" . The Sydney Morning Herald . Archived from the original on 9 October 2024. Retrieved 9 October 2024.
19. Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (9 October 2024). "#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 32 L-NP 37 Grn 11 IND 14* others 6" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 1 March 2025. Retrieved 20 October 2024– via Twitter. My 2PP estimate 50-50 (my Aug estimate was 51.2 to L-NP) #nswpol
20. Bowe, William (8 September 2024). "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
21. "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. pp. 11–15. Archived (PDF) from the original on 29 January 2025. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
22. Smith, Alexandra (18 August 2024). "NSW voters back rental reforms to stop unfair evictions" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 18 August 2024. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
23. Bowe, William (19 August 2024). "New South Wales: Resolve Strategic poll, Hornsby and Epping by-elections, Liberal council candidates fiasco". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 1 March 2025. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
24. Smith, Alexandra (21 June 2024). "The housing crisis has split Sydney. This is where the voters have landed" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 20 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
25. Bowe, William (20 June 2024). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 35, Greens 11 in New South Wales". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 3 October 2024. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
26. O'Doherty, James (10 June 2024). "'Politics of grievance' on show as Chris Minns' NSW Labor government slides in the polls" . The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 9 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
27. Bowe, William (3 May 2024). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 33, Coalition 36, Greens 12 in NSW". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 5 December 2024. Retrieved 3 May 2024.
28. Smith, Alexandra (5 March 2024). "NSW Labor trailing Coalition for first time in two years" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 4 March 2024. Retrieved 5 March 2024.
29. Bowe, William (6 March 2024). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 34, Coalition 38, Greens 12 in NSW". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 14 December 2024. Retrieved 6 March 2024.
30. Smith, Alexandra (11 November 2023). "NSW Labor slides as Greens, independents make ground with voters" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 10 November 2023. Retrieved 11 November 2023.
31. Bowe, William (12 November 2023). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 32, Greens 13 in New South Wales". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 4 November 2024. Retrieved 7 December 2023.
32. Smith, Alexandra (14 September 2023). "Honeymoon over as NSW Labor suffers hit to primary vote" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 13 September 2023. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
33. Bowe, William (14 September 2023). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 38, Coalition 36, Greens 9 in NSW". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 11 November 2024. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
34. Smith, Alexandra (21 July 2023). "Majority still 'liked and respected' Berejiklian, but one-third changed minds after corrupt finding" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 20 July 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
35. Bowe, William (23 July 2023). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 41, Coalition 32, Greens 10 in NSW". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 15 September 2024. Retrieved 22 August 2023.
36. Smith, Alexandra (18 May 2023). "Rise in voters worried about skyrocketing rental prices adds to Minns' cost-of-living challenge" . The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 17 May 2023. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
37. Bowe, William (18 May 2023). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 44, Coalition 31, Greens 9 in New South Wales". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 15 September 2024. Retrieved 22 August 2023.