2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election

2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election

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Electoral district of Northern Tablelands in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
Votes counted	45.6% as of 22 June 2024, 9:48 PM AEST
SFF Candidate Brendan Moylan Ben Smith Dorothy Robinson Party National SFF Greens
Incumbent MP Adam Marshall Nationals

A by-election was held in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Northern Tablelands on 22 June 2024, following the resignation of National Party MP Adam Marshall. ^{[1] [2]}

Background

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting Nationals MP Adam Marshall, who had held the seat since the 2013.

Northern Tablelands is a very conservative seat and is a heartland for the National Party. While Labor traditionally does poorly in rural New South Wales (particularly rural northeastern New South Wales), Northern Tablelands is particularly bad territory for Labor. Northern Tablelands mostly overlaps with the federal seat of New England, which is also a very safe Nationals seat.

Labor usually runs dead in the seat, and therefore is not contesting the by-election.

Marshall won 83.8% of the two-party-preferred vote at the 2023 state election, which is equal to a 33.8% margin on the Mackerras pendulum, emphasising that Northern Tablelands can be classified as a very safe seat, and the safest seat for any party in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly. Additionally, excluding by-election results or redistributions, Northern Tablelands is the seventh-safest seat for any party in any Australian state parliament, and the safest outside Western Australia.

Previous results

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2023 New South Wales state election (Legislative Assembly) § Northern Tablelands.[ edit ]

2023 New South Wales state election: Northern Tablelands ^{[3] [4]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	National	Adam Marshall	35,575	71.6	−1.8
	Labor	Yvonne Langenberg	5,045	10.2	−0.8
	Greens	Elizabeth O'Hara	2,369	4.8	−0.8
	Shooters, Fishers, Farmers	Michael Hay	2,239	4.5	−5.1
	Legalise Cannabis	Peter O'Loghlin	1,148	2.3	+2.3
	Independent	Billy Wood	980	2.0	+2.0
	Liberal Democrats	Margaret Hammond	783	1.6	+1.6
	Sustainable Australia	Alan Crowe	595	1.2	+1.2
	Independent	Natasha Ledger	496	1.0	+1.0
	Public Education	Gary Hampton	425	0.9	+0.9
Total formal votes			49,655	98.0	−0.1
Informal votes			1,039	2.0	+0.1
Turnout			50,694	87.6	−3.1
Two-party-preferred result
	National	Adam Marshall	37,654	83.8	+0.7
	Labor	Yvonne Langenberg	7,255	16.2	−0.7
	National hold		Swing	+0.7

Candidates

Candidates are listed in ballot order: ^[5]

Party		Candidate	Background
	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	Ben Smith	[6]
	Greens	Dorothy Robinson	Armidale Regional Councillor
	Independent	Natasha Ledger	2023 candidate
	Independent	Duncan Fischer	Businessman [7]
	National	Brendan Moylan	Solicitor [8] [9]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are: ^[10]

• 31 May 2024 – Issue of writ, Close of rolls
• 6 June 2024 – Close of nominations
• 7 June 2024 – Declaration of nominations
• 15 June 2024 – Commencement of early voting
• 17 June 2024 – Applications for postal voting closes
• 22 June 2024 – Polling day
• 12 July 2024 – Return of writ

Results

2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election ^{[11] [12]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	National	Brendan Moylan	17,843	68.3	−3.3
	Shooters, Fishers, Farmers	Ben Smith	3,220	12.3	+7.8
	Greens	Dorothy Robinson	2,376	9.1	+4.3
	Independent	Duncan Fischer	1,530	5.9	+5.9
	Independent	Natasha Ledger	1,144	4.4	+3.4
Total formal votes			26,113	97.3	−0.6
Informal votes			714	2.7	+0.6
Turnout			26,827	45.6
Two-candidate-preferred result
	National	Brendan Moylan	19,651	85.4	−3.9
	Greens	Dorothy Robinson	3,370	14.6	+3.9
	National hold		Swing	−3.9

Results are not final. Last updated on 22 June 2024 at 9:48pm AEST.

See also

• 2013 Northern Tablelands state by-election
• Electoral results for the district of Northern Tablelands
• List of New South Wales state by-elections

References

1. "NSW's safest seat to go to byelection as MP quits". Sydney Morning Herald. 4 April 2024.
2. "Northern Tablelands State By-Election". Electoral Commission of New South Wales. Retrieved 20 May 2013.
3. LA First Preference: Northern Tablelands, NSW State Election Results 2023, NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 13 April 2023.
4. LA Two Candidate Preferred: Northern Tablelands, NSW State Election Results 2023, NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 13 April 2023.
5. "2024 Northern Tablelands State by-election". elections.nsw.gov.au. New South Wales Electoral Commission . Retrieved 7 June 2024.
6. "2024 Northern Tablelands By-election: Candidate Application". Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. Retrieved 14 May 2024.
7. "Duncan Fischer for Northern Tablelands". Duncan Fischer. Archived from the original on 26 May 2024. Retrieved 26 May 2024.
8. "NSW Nationals preselect Brendan Moylan for Northern Tablelands by-election". New South Wales National Party. 6 May 2024. Retrieved 9 May 2024.
9. "Who is Brendan Moylan? - Northern Tablelands - National Party Of Nsw - LykElect.com". lykelect.com. Retrieved 5 June 2024.
10. "2024 Northern Tablelands State by-election".
11. "First Preference Votes Report Parliamentary Election: Northern Tablelands". NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 23 June 2024.
12. "Two Candidate Preferred Report Parliamentary Election: Northern Tablelands". NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 23 June 2024.