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Electoral district of Northern Tablelands in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election was held in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Northern Tablelands on 22 June 2024, following the resignation of National Party MP Adam Marshall. [1] [2]
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting Nationals MP Adam Marshall, who had held the seat since the 2013.
Northern Tablelands is a very conservative seat and is a heartland for the National Party. While Labor traditionally does poorly in rural New South Wales (particularly rural northeastern New South Wales), Northern Tablelands is particularly bad territory for Labor. Northern Tablelands mostly overlaps with the federal seat of New England, which is also a very safe Nationals seat.
Labor usually runs dead in the seat, and therefore did not contest the by-election.
Marshall won 83.8% of the two-party-preferred vote at the 2023 state election, which is equal to a 33.8% margin on the Mackerras pendulum, emphasising that Northern Tablelands can be classified as a very safe seat, and the safest seat for any party in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly. Additionally, excluding by-election results or redistributions, Northern Tablelands is the seventh-safest seat for any party in any Australian state parliament, and the safest outside Western Australia.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | Adam Marshall | 35,575 | 71.6 | −1.8 | |
| Labor | Yvonne Langenberg | 5,045 | 10.2 | −0.8 | |
| Greens | Elizabeth O'Hara | 2,369 | 4.8 | −0.8 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Michael Hay | 2,239 | 4.5 | −5.1 | |
| Legalise Cannabis | Peter O'Loghlin | 1,148 | 2.3 | +2.3 | |
| Independent | Billy Wood | 980 | 2.0 | +2.0 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Margaret Hammond | 783 | 1.6 | +1.6 | |
| Sustainable Australia | Alan Crowe | 595 | 1.2 | +1.2 | |
| Independent | Natasha Ledger | 496 | 1.0 | +1.0 | |
| Public Education | Gary Hampton | 425 | 0.9 | +0.9 | |
| Total formal votes | 49,655 | 98.0 | −0.1 | ||
| Informal votes | 1,039 | 2.0 | +0.1 | ||
| Turnout | 50,694 | 87.6 | −3.1 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| National | Adam Marshall | 37,654 | 83.8 | +0.7 | |
| Labor | Yvonne Langenberg | 7,255 | 16.2 | −0.7 | |
| National hold | Swing | +0.7 | |||
Candidates are listed in ballot order: [5]
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | Ben Smith | [6] | |
| Greens | Dorothy Robinson | Armidale Regional Councillor | |
| Independent | Natasha Ledger | 2023 candidate | |
| Independent | Duncan Fischer | Businessman [7] | |
| National | Brendan Moylan | Solicitor [8] [9] | |
Key dates in relation to the by-election are: [10]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | Brendan Moylan | 31,203 | 67.9 | −3.7 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Ben Smith | 5,229 | 11.4 | +6.9 | |
| Greens | Dorothy Robinson | 4,211 | 9.2 | +4.4 | |
| Independent | Duncan Fischer | 3,292 | 7.2 | +7.2 | |
| Independent | Natasha Ledger | 1,999 | 4.4 | +3.4 | |
| Total formal votes | 45,934 | 97.3 | −0.6 | ||
| Informal votes | 1,271 | 2.7 | +0.6 | ||
| Turnout | 47,205 | 80.2 | −7.4 | ||
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| National | Brendan Moylan | 33,611 | 81.9 | −1.9 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Ben Smith | 7,411 | 18.1 | +1.9 | |
| National hold | Swing | −1.9 | |||
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