2004 Indian general election

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2004 Indian general election
Flag of India.svg
  1999 20 April, 26 April, 5 and 10 May 2004 2009  

543 of the 545 seats in the Lok Sabha [a]
272 seats needed for a majority
Registered671,487,930
Turnout58.07% (Decrease2.svg 1.92pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Sonia Gandhi (cropped).jpg
Lal Krishna Advani 2009.jpg
Surjith-6.JPG
Leader Sonia Gandhi L. K. Advani Harkishan Singh Surjeet
Party INC BJP CPI(M)
Alliance INC+ NDA LF
Last election28.30%, 114 seats23.75%, 182 seats5.40%, 33 seats
Seats won14513843
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 31Decrease2.svg 44Increase2.svg 10
Popular vote103,408,94986,371,56122,070,614
Percentage26.53%22.16%5.66%
SwingDecrease2.svg 1.77pp Decrease2.svg 1.59pp Increase2.svg 0.26pp
Alliance seats21818160

Wahlergebnisse Indien 2004.svg
Results by constituency

Prime Minister before election

Atal Bihari Vajpayee
BJP

Prime Minister after election

Manmohan Singh
INC

General elections were held in India in four phases between 20 April and 10 May 2004. Over 670 million people were eligible to vote, electing 543 members of the 14th Lok Sabha. [1] Seven states also held assembly elections to elect state governments. They were the first elections fully carried out with electronic voting machines (EVMs).

Contents

On 13 May the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the lead party of the National Democratic Alliance conceded a shocking mysterious defeat. [2] The Indian National Congress, which had governed India for all but five years from independence until 1996, returned to power after a record six years out of office. It was unable to put a majority alone in 2004. It formed UPA, which had together a comfortable majority of more than 335 members out of 543 with the help of its allies. The 335 members included both the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, the governing coalition formed after the election and external support from the Left Front, who threatened to withdraw their support during Nuclear Deal.

After facing criticism from her own party and entire country, Sonia Gandhi declined to become Prime Minister and instead asked former Finance Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, who was a respected economist and loyal to Sonia Gandhi, to head the new government. Sonia Gandhi participated sometimes in running the government. [3] Singh had previously served in the Congress government of Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao in the early 1990s, when he was seen as one of the architects of India's first economic liberalisation plan, which staved off an impending monetary crisis. Despite the fact that Singh had never won a Lok Sabha seat, he was a member of the Rajya Sabha of Parliament. His considerable goodwill and Sonia Gandhi's nomination won him the support of UPA allies and the Left Front. Dr. Manmohan Singh became the first Sikh prime minister of India.

Background

Speaker Manohar Joshi, who was from the Shiva Sena(NDA), had recommended premature dissolution of the 13th Lok Sabha (in accordance with a provision of the Constitution) to pave the way for early elections apparently in view of the recent good showing of the BJP in the Assembly elections in four states. [4] [5] But though this recommendation was not accepted by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee, the Speaker dissolved the Lok Sabha.

Organisation

Polling dates 2004 Indian general election schedule.jpg
Polling dates

The election dates for the parliamentary elections were: [6] [7]

Counting began simultaneously on 13 May. Over 370 million of the 675 million eligible citizens voted, with election violence claiming 48 lives, less than half the number killed during the 1999 election. The Indian elections were held in phases in order to maintain law and order. A few states considered sensitive areas required deployment of the armed forces. The average enrollment of voters in each constituency was 12 lakhs, although the largest constituency had 31 lakhs.

The Election Commission of India is responsible for deciding the dates and conducting elections according to constitutional provisions. The Election Commission employed more than a million electronic voting machines for these elections.

According to India Today , 115.62 billion rupees were expected to have been spent in campaigning for the elections by all political parties combined. Most of the money was spent on the people involved in the election. The Election Commission limited poll expenses to Rs. 25 lakhs per constituency. Thus, the actual spending is expected to have been approximately ten times the limit. About 6.5 billion rupees are estimated to have been spent on mobilising 1,50,000 vehicles. About a billion rupees are estimated to have been spent on helicopters and aircraft.

Phase-wise polling constituencies in each state
State/Union territoryTotal constituenciesElection dates and number of constituencies
Phase 1Phase 2Phase 3Phase 4
20 April26 April5 May10 May
Andhra Pradesh 422121
Arunachal Pradesh 22
Assam 1468
Bihar 40111712
Chhattisgarh 1111
Goa 22
Gujarat 2626
Haryana 1010
Himachal Pradesh 44
Jammu and Kashmir 62112
Jharkhand 1468
Karnataka 281513
Kerala 2020
Madhya Pradesh 291217
Maharashtra 482424
Manipur 211
Meghalaya 22
Mizoram 11
Nagaland 11
Orissa 211110
Punjab 1313
Rajasthan 2525
Sikkim 11
Tamil Nadu 3939
Tripura 22
Uttar Pradesh 80323018
Uttarakhand 55
West Bengal 4242
Andaman and Nicobar Islands 11
Chandigarh 11
Dadra and Nagar Haveli 11
Daman and Diu 11
Delhi 77
Lakshadweep 11
Puducherry 11
Constituencies54314113783182
Total states/UTs polling on this day1611716
Total constituencies by end of phase141278361543
% complete by end of phase26%51%66%100%
States/UTsConstituencies
Number of states and UTs polling in single phase24219
Number of states and UTs polling in two phases8198
Number of states and UTs polling in three phases2120
Number of states and UTs polling in four phases16
Total35543
Result13 May 2004

Pre-poll alliances

In these elections, compared to all the Lok Sabha elections of the 1990s, the battle was more of a head-to-head contest in the sense that there was no viable third front alternative. Largely the contest was between BJP its allies on one hand and Congress its allies on the other. However, the situation did show large regional differences.

The BJP fought the elections as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), although some of its seat-sharing agreements were made with strong regional parties of the NDA such as Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu.

Ahead of the elections there were attempts to form a Congress-led national level joint opposition front. In the end, an agreement could not be reached, but on regional level alliances between Congress and regional parties were made in several states. This was the first time that Congress contested with that type of alliances in a parliamentary election.

The left parties, most notably the CPM and the CPI, contested on their own in their strongholds West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala, confronting both Congress and NDA forces. In several other states, such as Punjab and Andhra Pradesh, they took part in seat sharings with Congress. In Tamil Nadu they were part of the DMK-led DPA (Democratic Progressive Alliance).

Two parties refused to go along with either Congress or BJP, they were BSP and Samajwadi Party. Both are based in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state of India (in terms of population). Congress made several attempts to form alliances with them, but in vain. Many believed that they would prevent Congress of an electoral victory. The result was a four-cornered contest in UP, which didn't really hurt or benefit BJP or Congress significantly.

Forecast and campaigns

Most analysts believed the NDA would win the elections. This assessment was also supported by opinion polls. The economy had shown steady growth in the last years and the disinvestment of government owned production units (a continuation of India's liberalisation policies ) had been on track. The Foreign Exchange Reserves of India stood at more than US$100 billion (7th largest in the world and a record for India). The service sector had also generated a lot of jobs. The Vajpayee government had launched numerous welfare schemes, thus starting the culture of "Yojana"s in Indian governments. The party was supposed to have been riding on a wave of the feel good factor, typified by its promotional campaign "India Shining". [8]

In the past, BJP has largely been seen as a hardline Hindu right wing party with close ties with the hardline organisations the RSS and Vishva Hindu Parishad. Over the years, the party under Vajpayee has slightly distanced itself from hardline policies in order to accommodate a variety of parties within the NDA, like TMC (a Congress-breakaway party), breakaway factions of the Janata Dal like INLD, RLD, JD(U) and BJD, Dravidianist parties like DMK (which left the alliance in December 2003), PMK (which left the alliance in January 2004) and AIADMK (which joined after DMK left) and parties largely representing non-Hindus like SAD and JKNC (which joined the alliance in 2002), a change that was being questioned after the party's good performance in the 2003 assembly elections of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh, Karnataka. These elections were marked by the campaign's emphasis on economic gains instead of issues involving religious polarisation. Ban on cow-slaughter, implementation of a Uniform Civil Code, construction of Ram-mandir at the site of Ayodhya, abolition of the provisions of secularism in order to make Hinduism the country's state religion etc. characterised BJP's campaign in the 1996 election. From the last few elections, BJP had realised that its voter base had reached a ceiling and had concentrated on pre-poll rather than post-poll alliances. The Vajpayee wave and foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi also constituted part of the NDA's campaign.

Opinion polls

Conducted in month(s)
NDA UPA Other
August 2002250195100
February 2003315115115
August 2003247180115
January 2004335110100

Exit polls

Polling organisation
NDA UPA Other
NDTV-AC Nielsen230-250190-205100-120
Star News-C voter263-275174-18486-98
Aaj Tak-MARG248190105
Sahara DRS278181102
Zee News-Taleem249176117
Actual result181218143
Sources:- [9] [10] [11]

State/UT-wise voter turnout details

State/UTSeatsElectorsVotersTurnout
MenWomenTotalMenWomenTotalMenWomenTotal
Andhra Pradesh422,53,55,1182,57,91,224 5,11,46,3421,83,20,0191,73,84,4443,57,76,27572.2567.469.95%
Arunachal Pradesh23,51,5643,32,4706,84,0341,99,4131,83,909 3,85,44656.7255.3156.35%
Assam1478,21,59171,93,283 1,50,14,87456,71,45447,01,7101,03,77,35472.5165.3669.11%
Bihar402,70,53,4082,35,06,2645,05,59,6721,71,95,1391,21,34,9132,93,32,30663.5651.6258.02%
Chhattisgarh1169,04,74268,14,7001,37,19,44240,39,74731,00,82771,46,18958.5145.5052.09%
Goa24,75,8474,65,3209,41,1672,86,1562,64,9345,53,10560.1456.9458.77%
Gujarat261,73,41,7601,63,33,3023,36,75,06286,64,92965,43,4241,52,13,50149.9740.0645.18%
Haryana1066,60,63156,59,9261,23,20,55745,36,23435,54,36180,97,06468.1162.8065.72%
Himachal Pradesh421,28,82820,53,16741,81,99512,69,53912,11,99424,97,14959.8459.0359.71%
Jammu & Kashmir634,68,23528,99,88063,68,11513,91,2638,41,48922,41,72940.1129.0235.20%
Jharkhand1489,14,16478,98,1751,68,12,33955,61,05638,01,78693,63,36362.3848.1355.69%
Karnataka281,96,05,2571,89,86,8383,85,92,0951,31,19,4421,19,62,5192,51,39,12266.9263.0065.14%
Kerala201,01,68,4281,09,57,0452,11,25,47374,80,35175,67,3291,50,93,96073.5669.0671.45%
Madhya Pradesh292,00,28,1611,83,61,9403,83,90,1011,13,22,39171,24,2801,84,63,45156.5338.8048.09%
Maharashtra483,27,88,4763,02,23,7326,30,12,208 1,89,57,6421,52,63,7483,42,63,31757.8250.5054.38%
Manipur27,46,0547,90,45615,36,5105,22,5265,12,83410,35,69670.0364.8867.41%
Meghalaya26,48,6546,40,72012,89,3743,02,1133,77,1256,79,32146.5858.8652.69%
Mizoram12,73,4542,76,5055,49,9591,75,3721,70,0003,49,79964.1361.4863.60%
Nagaland15,47,1144,94,31910,41,4335,05,6824,46,0029,55,69092.4390.2391.77%
Orissa211,31,91,6911,24,60,2982,56,51,98990,10,59279,29,4051,69,45,09268.3063.6466.06%
Punjab1386,52,29479,63,1051,66,15,39954,37,86147,94,6581,02,33,16562.8560.2161.59%
Rajasthan251,81,49,0281,65,63,3573,47,12,3851,00,09,08572,90,5691,73,46,54955.1544.0249.97% 
Sikkim11,45,7381,36,1992,81,9371,12,4041,02,8902,19,76977.1375.5477.95%
Tamil Nadu392,32,69,3012,39,82,9704,72,52,2711,50,06,5231,36,42,7972,87,32,95464.4956.89  60.81%
Tripura210,23,3689,54,85419,78,2227,14,4916,04,45213,27,00069.8263.3067.08%
Uttar Pradesh806,03,28,6085,02,95,88211,06,34,4903,25,52,4792,07,20,4475,32,78,07153.9641.2048.16%
Uttarakhand528,38,20427,24,43355,62,63714,70,49611,97,917 26,73,83251.8143.9748.16%
West Bengal422,47,98,0892,26,39,3424,74,37,4311,98,04,5521,70,66,3703,70,21,47879.8675.3878.04%
  Andaman & Nicobar Islands (UT)11,31,5021,10,1432,41,64583,52070,2841,53,84163.5163.8163.66%
Chandigarh (UT)12,92,4382,53,2465,27,6841,51,9321,17,8862,69,84951.9550.1151.14%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli (UT)165,05957,6221,22,68143,79540,90484,70367.3270.9969.04%
Daman & Diu (UT)139,59539,63779,23229,75155,59125,83965.2675.0670.16%
Lakshadweep (UT)119,88019,15339,03315,69816,12231,82078.9684.1781.52%
NCT OF Delhi749,53,92538,09,55087,63,47524,28,28916,97,94441,26,44349.0244.5747.09%
Puducherry (UT)13,10,6583,26,0096,36,6672,40,1142,44,2024,84,33677.2974.9176.07%
India54334,94,90,86432,19,97,06667,14,87,93021,72,34,10417,27,14,22638,99,48,33062.1653.6458.07%
Source-ECI

Results

Seat share of parties in the election
  1. INC (26.6%)
  2. BJP (25.3%)
  3. CPI(M) (7.88%)
  4. SP (6.60%)
  5. RJD (4.40%)
  6. BSP (3.48%)
  7. DMK (2.93%)
  8. SHS (2.20%)
  9. Other (20.6%)

Analysis

Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a hung parliament. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. Congress was regarded as old-fashioned by the ruling NDA and many. But Congress declared that it has largely backing of poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters though all sections of the society had participated in the economic boom of Vajpayee's years. The BJP declared that, PV Narasimha Rao's govt had created a wealthy middle class. But Congress achieved its victory on grounds of coalition politics.

Impact

The rout of the ruling parties in the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala in the general elections led to calls for the dissolution of the governments of these states.

The stock market (Bombay Stock Exchange) fell in the week prior to the announcement of the results due to fears of the defeat of NDA government and stoppage of its economic reforms. As soon as counting began, however, it became clear that the Congress coalition was headed for a sizeable lead over the NDA and the market surged, only to crash the following day when the left parties, whose support would be required for government formation, announced that it was their intention to do away with the disinvestment ministry. Following this, Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister (in office 2004–14) and the prime architect of the economic liberalisation of the early 1990s, hurried to reassure investors that the new government would strive to create a business-friendly climate.

Events

See also

Further reading

Notes

  1. Two seats were reserved for Anglo-Indians and filled by presidential nomination

References

  1. "General Elections 2004: Facts and figures". India Today. 13 March 2009. Archived from the original on 23 July 2023. Retrieved 23 July 2023.
  2. Waldman, Amy (13 May 2004). "In Huge Upset, Gandhi's Party Wins Election in India (Published 2004)". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 18 August 2018. Retrieved 22 August 2023.
  3. Wright, George (18 May 2004). "Sonia Gandhi declines Indian prime ministership". The Guardian. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
  4. "The dissolution debate". The Hindu. 26 February 2004. Archived from the original on 4 October 2023. Retrieved 6 January 2023.
  5. "President dissolves Lok Sabha". The Tribune. Archived from the original on 4 October 2023. Retrieved 6 January 2023.
  6. "General Election, 2004 (Vol I, II, III)". Election Commission of India. Archived from the original on 15 May 2019. Retrieved 8 June 2021.
  7. "General Election Schedule 2004". Election Commission of India.
  8. "BJP spends Rs 150 cr on 'India Shining' campaign". The Economic Times. Archived from the original on 17 October 2023. Retrieved 6 January 2023.
  9. "2004 exit polls: when surveys got it horribly wrong". Oneindia. 20 May 2019. Archived from the original on 4 October 2023. Retrieved 20 May 2019.
  10. "Can 2019 exit polls turn out to be wrong like 2004?". Moneycontrol. 20 May 2019. Archived from the original on 21 January 2024. Retrieved 14 December 2022.
  11. "Exit polls: How accurate are they? A look back at 2004, 2009, 2014 predictions". Financial Express. 19 May 2019. Archived from the original on 4 October 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2022.
  12. "Lok Sabha Results Constituency Map: Lok Sabha Election Result with constituencies details along electoral map". The Times of India. Archived from the original on 4 August 2021. Retrieved 20 July 2021.