2021 Canadian federal election

2021 Canadian federal election

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338 seats in the House of Commons 170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	62.3% [1] ( 4.7  pp)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019 Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63% Seats before 155 119 32 Seats won 160 [a] 119 32 Seat change  5 Popular vote 5,556,629 5,747,410 1,301,615 Percentage 32.62% 33.74% 7.64% Swing  0.50  pp  0.60  pp  0.01  pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul Maxime Bernier Party New Democratic Green People's Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020 September 14, 2018 Leader's seat Burnaby South Ran in Toronto Centre (lost) Ran in Beauce (lost) Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55% 0 seats, 1.62% Seats before 24 2 0 Seats won 25 2 0 Seat change  1 Popular vote 3,036,348 396,988 840,993 Percentage 17.82% 2.33% 4.94% Swing  1.84  pp  4.22  pp  3.32  pp
Results by electoral district, shaded by winners' vote share Results by electoral district, holds and gains Results by province and territory
Prime Minister before election Justin Trudeau Liberal Prime Minister after election Justin Trudeau Liberal

The 2021 Canadian federal election was held on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The writs of election were issued by Governor General Mary Simon on August 15, 2021, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the dissolution of parliament for a snap election. ^[2]

Trudeau won a third term as prime minister, his second minority government. ^[3] Though the Liberals were hoping to win a majority government in order to govern alone, ^[4] the results were mostly unchanged from the 2019 Canadian federal election. ^[5] The Liberals won the most seats at 160; as this fell short of the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons, they formed a minority government with support from other parties. ^{[6] [7]} The 2021 election set a new record for the lowest vote share for a party that would go on to form a single-party minority government. The Liberals won 32.6 per cent of the popular vote, while losing the popular vote to the Conservatives as they did in 2019. ^[8]

The Conservatives led by Erin O'Toole won 119 seats, two fewer than their result in 2019, and continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet won 32 seats, unchanged from the prior election. The New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh won 25 seats, a net increase of one seat, but nonetheless fell short of expectations. ^[9] The Green Party maintained two seats but party leader Annamie Paul was defeated for the third ^[b] time in her riding of Toronto Centre. The party received 2.3 per cent of the popular vote, approximately a third of what they won in 2019. ^{[10] [11] [12]} The People's Party did not win any seats, despite winning nearly 5 per cent of the popular vote, and party leader Maxime Bernier was defeated for the second time ^[c] in his riding of Beauce.

Trudeau faced public blowback for holding an election in the middle of a global pandemic due to his expectation that doing so could translate his supposed rallying popularity into a landslide victory. Criticism worsened when Trudeau failed to win by a majority and instead repeated his 2019 election showing. ^[13] An official government probe later found that China attempted to meddle in the election to influence Canadian foreign policy. ^[14]

Following the election, Paul resigned as Green Party leader two months after the election, ^[15] and O'Toole was ousted as leader by his party's caucus in February 2022 over the poor showing in the election and other controversies ongoing at the time. In March 2022, the NDP formed a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals. ^[16]

The election was the second one in a row where the Liberals succeeded in winning a plurality of seats despite having fewer votes than the Conservative Party.

Background

The 2019 Canadian federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing both their parliamentary majority and the popular vote but nevertheless winning the most seats and remaining in office as a minority government. The Conservatives, who had gained seats and won the popular vote, continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois regained official party status and became the third party, replacing the New Democrats in that role, with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party. Although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs (twelve) for official party status. No other party won any seats. ^{[17] [18]}

In the immediate aftermath of the 2019 federal election, all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the 43rd Canadian Parliament. ^{[19] [20] [21]} Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th federal election, and ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019. ^{[22] [23]} On November 6, 2019, the members of the Conservative caucus decided not to adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader; his leadership would still have been reviewed at the party's next convention, which was scheduled for April 2020. ^{[24] [25]} On December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader. ^[26] He stayed on until his successor Erin O'Toole was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle. ^{[27] [28]}

On August 15, 2021, after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau, the governor general dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20. ^[2]

Political parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented and seats held in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election, at dissolution, and after the 2021 federal election. An expected by-election in Haldimand—Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election.

A polling station on election day

Name		Ideology	Position	Leader	2019 result		Seats at dissolution	2021 result
					Votes (%)	Seats		Votes (%)	Seats
	Liberal	Liberalism Social liberalism	Centre to centre-left	Justin Trudeau	33.12%	157 / 338	155 / 338	32.62%	160 / 338
	Conservative	Conservatism Economic liberalism Fiscal conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Erin O'Toole	34.34%	121 / 338	119 / 338	33.74%	119 / 338
	Bloc Québécois	Quebec nationalism Social democracy	Centre-left	Yves-François Blanchet	7.63%	32 / 338	32 / 338	7.64%	32 / 338
	New Democratic	Social democracy Democratic socialism	Centre-left to left-wing	Jagmeet Singh	15.98%	24 / 338	24 / 338	17.82%	25 / 338
	Green	Green politics		Annamie Paul	6.55%	3 / 338	2 / 338	2.33%	2 / 338
	People's	Right-wing populism Canadian nationalism Conservatism	Right-wing to far-right	Maxime Bernier	1.62%	0 / 338	0 / 338	4.94%	0 / 338
	Independents	N/A			0.41%	1 / 338	5 / 338	0.19%	0 / 338
	Vacant seats	N/A			–	0 / 338	1 / 338	–	0 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-election

Below are the 31 MPs who chose not to run in the 2021 federal election.

Member of Parliament		Electoral district	Province or territory	Date announced
	Will Amos [29]	Pontiac	Quebec	August 8, 2021
	Larry Bagnell [30]	Yukon	Yukon	August 5, 2021
	Navdeep Bains [31]	Mississauga—Malton	Ontario	January 12, 2021
	Lyne Bessette [32]	Brome—Missisquoi	Quebec	July 16, 2021
	Bob Bratina [33]	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	Ontario	May 17, 2021
	Wayne Easter [34]	Malpeque	Prince Edward Island	June 14, 2021
	Pat Finnigan [35]	Miramichi—Grand Lake	New Brunswick	June 14, 2021
	Paul Lefebvre [36]	Sudbury	Ontario	March 12, 2021
	Karen McCrimmon [37]	Kanata—Carleton	Ontario	August 8, 2021
	Catherine McKenna [38]	Ottawa Centre	Ontario	June 27, 2021
	Geoff Regan [39]	Halifax West	Nova Scotia	March 31, 2021
	Gagan Sikand [40]	Mississauga—Streetsville	Ontario	August 15, 2021
	Adam Vaughan [41]	Spadina—Fort York	Ontario	August 8, 2021
	Kate Young [42]	London West	Ontario	March 18, 2021
	Steven Blaney [43]	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis	Quebec	July 14, 2021
	Peter Kent [44]	Thornhill	Ontario	November 19, 2020
	Tom Lukiwski [45]	Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan	Saskatchewan	May 26, 2021
	Phil McColeman [46]	Brantford—Brant	Ontario	December 30, 2020
	Cathy McLeod [47]	Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo	British Columbia	February 4, 2021
	Bruce Stanton [48]	Simcoe North	Ontario	June 25, 2020
	David Sweet [49]	Flamborough—Glanbrook	Ontario	January 4, 2021
	David Yurdiga [50]	Fort McMurray—Cold Lake	Alberta	August 14, 2021
	Louise Charbonneau [51]	Trois-Rivières	Quebec	January 14, 2021
	Simon Marcil [51]	Mirabel	Quebec	January 14, 2021
	Scott Duvall [52] [53]	Hamilton Mountain	Ontario	March 5, 2021
	Jack Harris [54] [55]	St. John's East	Newfoundland and Labrador	June 11, 2021
	Mumilaaq Qaqqaq [56]	Nunavut	Nunavut	May 20, 2021
	Yasmin Ratansi [d]	Don Valley East	Ontario	No announcement
	Ramesh Sangha [d]	Brampton Centre	Ontario	No announcement
	Marwan Tabbara [d]	Kitchener South—Hespeler	Ontario	No announcement
	Jody Wilson-Raybould [57]	Vancouver Granville	British Columbia	July 8, 2021

Incumbent not renominated

One MP was not renominated by his party:

Member of Parliament		Electoral district	Province or territory	Date announced
	Michel Boudrias [58]	Terrebonne	Quebec	August 4, 2021

Timeline

See also: 43rd Canadian Parliament

Changes in seats held (2020–2021)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler	June 6, 2020 [59]	Marwan Tabbara	█  Liberal	Resigned from caucus [a 1]			█  Independent
Toronto Centre	August 17, 2020 [60]	Bill Morneau	█  Liberal	Resigned [a 2]	October 26, 2020	Marci Ien	█  Liberal
York Centre	September 1, 2020 [61]	Michael Levitt	█  Liberal	Resigned [a 3]	October 26, 2020	Ya'ara Saks	█  Liberal
Don Valley East	November 9, 2020 [62]	Yasmin Ratansi	█  Liberal	Resigned from caucus [a 4]			█  Independent
Hastings—Lennox and Addington	January 20, 2021 [63] [64]	Derek Sloan	█  Conservative	Expelled from caucus [a 5]			█  Independent
Brampton Centre	January 25, 2021 [65] [66]	Ramesh Sangha	█  Liberal	Expelled from caucus [a 6]			█  Independent
Haldimand—Norfolk	May 11, 2021 [67]	Diane Finley	█  Conservative	Resigned			█ Vacant
Fredericton	June 10, 2021 [68]	Jenica Atwin	█  Green	Changed affiliation			█  Liberal

1. Laying of assault charges unrelated to parliament
2. To pursue leadership of OECD
3. To become a non-profit executive
4. Revelation of nepotism in staff hiring
5. Accepted a political donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm
6. Made unsupported allegations that multiple other Liberal MPs harboured support for the Khalistan movement

2019

• November 4, 2019: Elizabeth May resigns as leader of the Green Party of Canada, triggering a leadership election scheduled for October 2020.
• December 12, 2019: Andrew Scheer announces his intention to step down as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, triggering a leadership election scheduled for August 2020.

2020

• August 23–24, 2020: Erin O'Toole is elected leader of the Conservative Party.
• October 3, 2020: Annamie Paul is elected leader of the Green Party.

2021

• August 15, 2021: Parliament is dissolved and writs of election are dropped. ^[69]
• September 2, 2021: First French language leaders' debate, organized by TVA Nouvelles.
• September 8, 2021: Second French language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
• September 9, 2021: English language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
• September 10–13, 2021: Advance polling.
• September 14, 2021: Last day to apply online for mail-in voting. Last day to vote by Special Ballot at a Returning Office.
• September 20, 2021: Election Day.

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party

Type	Liberal	Conservative	New Democratic	Bloc Québécois	Green	People's
Media	Toronto Star [70]	National Post [71] Toronto Sun [72]		Le Devoir [73]
Public figures	Hillary Clinton [74] Bruce Heyman [75] Andrew Leach [75] Hazel McCallion [76] Barack Obama [74] Andrew Weaver [77]	Conrad Black [78] Celina Caesar-Chavannes [79] Rick Hillier [80] François Legault [81] Brian Lilley [82] Mark Norman [83]	Cindy Blackstock [84] Bernie Sanders [85] Rashida Tlaib [86]			Brian Peckford [87]
Unions and business associations			United Steelworkers [88]

Campaign

Early campaign (August 2021)

Election signs on the street in Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

The election call occurred at the same time as the fall of Kabul, on August 15. ^[89] Trudeau thus received criticism for not acting fast enough in the face of the 2021 Taliban offensive to evacuate Canadians from Afghanistan, as well as Afghans who supported Canada's military and diplomatic efforts during the War. ^[90]

Criticism of Trudeau's decision to call an early election, particularly amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, was a major theme of his opponents' campaigns, and commentators noted a lack of support for a snap election amongst the public. ^{[91] [92] [93]}

The beginning of the campaign proved difficult for the Liberals, who slightly fell behind the Conservatives in the polls of voting intentions. ^[90] The Conservative released their platform on the second day of the campaign. The party tried to change its image with this document by putting more focus on the environment, mental health, and LGBTQ+ rights issues. ^[94] Meanwhile, Trudeau attacked the new Conservative leader Erin O'Toole on the topics of compulsory vaccination for federal officials, abortion and the privatization of health care. ^[95]

On August 25, Minister for Women and Gender Equality Maryam Monsef referred to the Taliban as "our brothers". Many on social media shared the video of this statement, and saw this as an indication that she felt sympathetic to the terrorist group. Monsef said that this was false, and further stated that she only chose those words because Muslims tend to refer to each other as "brothers". ^[96]

On August 27, 2021, Trudeau was forced to cancel a campaign rally set for Bolton, Ontario, over security concerns arising from groups of protestors yelling obscenities at Trudeau. There were previous incidents of protesters showing up at his rallies criticizing COVID-19 vaccines and public health measures. ^[97]

Issues on the campaign trail

Foreign policy

Foreign policy debates focused on China and the situation in Afghanistan. For Afghanistan, discussions focused on ways to mitigate the immediate humanitarian crisis facing the country. ^{[98] [99]} The group Canadian Campaign for Afghan Peace launched an open letter on August 17 calling on political parties to take position of the new situation in Afghanistan. ^[100]

The campaign took place during the extradition case of Meng Wanzhou, which had exacerbated tensions between Canada and China. O'Toole accused Trudeau of being "weak on China", and promised to scale up Canada's hostility towards the country if elected. ^{[101] [102]}

According to Shadwick Martin, the tendency to relegate defence and foreign policy to minor appearances continued in 2021. He argues that the Liberals did not deviate from their government's existing foreign policy, while the Conservatives produced a lengthy list of reforms that one commentator described as "scattered and unfocused". The NDP's propositions were essentially unchanged from 2019. ^[103]

Climate change

As in 2019, climate change was a major issue in the campaign. In March 2021, Conservative leader O'Toole announced a carbon pricing plan to replace the current Liberal carbon tax, despite previous Conservative opposition to any form of a carbon tax. ^[104] There was thus a broad consensus among all represented parties for policies to mitigate climate change, although they differed in the emissions targets, the level of the carbon tax, and the transition path to a clean economy. Only the People's Party opposed all climate change policies and vowed to withdraw from the Paris climate accord. ^[105]

COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic was a major campaign issue. The Liberal party sought to defend its pandemic response, while trying to tie Erin O'Toole to Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. O'Toole always sidestepped questions about his previous support for Kenney's pandemic response by saying he would work with any premier to face the pandemic regardless of their political stripes. ^[106] During the campaign, Alberta was experiencing its worst wave of the pandemic in terms of hospitalisations. ^[107]

Meanwhile other parties explained what they would have done differently had they been in a similar situation. The Bloc Québecois criticized the amount of money invested in Federal aid for workers, especially the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB). ^[108] The NDP, on the other hand, criticized the government's "aggressive" crackdown on possibly fraudulent CERB claims, while calling for clawing back wage subsidy payments to companies who fired their workers while received this benefit. ^[109] The People's Party was the only party opposing vaccine passports, mask mandates and lockdowns. ^{[110] [111]}

Gun control

In September 2021, O'Toole changed his position on gun control. Reverting from his initial promise of repealing Prime Minister Trudeau's May 2020 ban on assault weapons, he changed his stance on the issue, promising that he would not repeal the ban. ^[112] Political commentators and analysts described O'Toole's leadership as shifting the Conservative Party to the political centre. ^[113]

Implosion of the Green Party

The Green Party of Canada experienced a period of infighting beginning in June 2021, when Jenica Atwin, one of its three MPs, crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party over a dispute regarding the 2021 Israel–Palestine crisis. ^[114] Although there were calls for the party leader Annamie Paul to resign, she stayed on as leader through the federal election. She spent the majority of the election campaigning in her chosen riding of Toronto Centre, but failed to win the seat. ^[115]

Rise of the People's Party

The campaign was also marked by a rise in support for the People's Party of Canada. Before the election, Mainstreet Research gave the party more than 8 per cent of the vote, ^[116] and Abacus Data noted particularly high scores among Canadians under the age of 60. ^[117] Justin Trudeau and Yves-François Blanchet indirectly accused the Conservatives for the rise of the PPC, with Trudeau notably criticizing Erin O'Toole for not requiring his party's candidates to be vaccinated. ^[118]

Campaign slogans

Party	English	French (translation)
Liberal Party of Canada	"Forward. For Everyone." [119]	"Avançons ensemble." ("Let's move forward together.")
Conservative Party of Canada	"Secure the Future" [120]	"Agir pour l'avenir." ("Act for the Future.")
New Democratic Party	"Fighting for You" [121]	"Oser ensemble" ("Dare Together")
Bloc Québécois	N/A	"Québécois" ("Quebec", in its adjective form)
Green Party of Canada	"Be Daring." [122]	"Faites le saut." ("Take the Leap.") and "Il faut de l'audace." ("It takes boldness.")
People's Party of Canada	"Common Sense Policies that put Canadians First"	"Des politiques fondées sur le gros bon sens qui priorisent des Canadiens" (as in English)

Policy platforms

Party	Full platform
█  Liberal	Forward. For Everyone. [123]
█  Conservative	Canada's Recovery Plan [124]
█  New Democratic	Ready for Better [125]
█  Bloc Québécois	Québécois [126]
█  Green	Platform 2021 - Be Daring [127]
█  People's	[128]

Platform evaluations

The Parliamentary Budget Officer provides a service to all parties for evaluating the financial impact of any of their proposals, but does not release details until the requesting party has done so as well. ^[129] After the election, the PBO revealed that 130 requests had been received from all parties, of which only 72 were made public. ^{[130] [131]} It did release a report outlining various baselines that were used in its costing exercises. ^[132]

The Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa announced that their analysis of fiscal credibility showed the Liberal party had the best grade, as shown by the following ratings: ^[133]

IFSD party platform rankings, 2021 (Good = Y, Pass = Y, Fail = N)

Party	Overall score	Realistic economic and fiscal assumptions	Responsible fiscal management	Transparency
█  Liberal	Y	Y	Y	Y
█  Conservative	Y	Y	N	Y
█  New Democratic	Y	Y	Y	N

Leaders' debates

Main article: Canadian leaders' debates § 2021 debates

In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates. ^{[134] [135]} The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates for every federal election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates. ^{[134] [135]}

The English-language debate gained notoriety when the moderator posed a question to Blanchet that characterized Quebec's law on secularism as "discriminatory". He challenged her use of that word, and the response was seen by some as a turning point in the Bloc's campaign, which gained in the polls after the debate. ^[136]

2021 Canadian general election debates
Date	Organizers	Location	Language	Moderator	P  Participant  A  Absent (invited)  I  Invited  N  Not invited						Source
					Trudeau	O'Toole	Blanchet	Singh	Paul	Bernier
September 2, 2021	TVA Nouvelles	Montreal	French	Pierre Bruneau	P	P	P	P	N	N	[137] [138]
September 8, 2021	Leaders' Debates Commission	Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau	French	Patrice Roy	P	P	P	P	P	N	[139] [140]
September 9, 2021			English	Shachi Kurl	P	P	P	P	P	N	[139] [140]

On August 29, Ici Radio-Canada Télé hosted a special broadcast consisting of a series of solo interviews with each leader in turn, with questions posed by Patrice Roy, Céline Galipeau and Anne-Marie Dussault. This format was not attempted by any of the other broadcasters. ^[141]

Opinion polls

Main articles: Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election and Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Polls in key provinces

Voter intentions through the course of the campaign

• 
  Alberta
• 
  British Columbia
• 
  Ontario
• 
  Quebec

Results

See also: Results breakdown of the 2021 Canadian federal election and Results of the 2021 Canadian federal election by riding

Summary results

Pie chart of popular vote and seat counts

Full results

The Liberals maintained their status as largest party in the House of Commons. The results were very close to those of the 2019 federal election. ^[5]

Summary of the 2021 Canadian federal election

Party		Party leader	Candidates	Seats					Popular vote
				2019	Dissol.	2021	Change from 2019	% seats	Votes	Vote change	%	pp change	% where running
	Liberal	Justin Trudeau	338 [e]	157	155	160 [f]	3	47.34%	5,556,629	462,099	32.62%	0.50pp	32.62%
	Conservative	Erin O'Toole	337 [g]	121	119	119	2	35.21%	5,747,410	491,817	33.74%	0.60pp	33.83%
	Bloc Québécois	Yves-François Blanchet	78	32	32	32		9.47%	1,301,615	85,415	7.64%	0.01pp	32.11%
	New Democratic	Jagmeet Singh	338 [h]	24	24	25	1	7.40%	3,036,348	132,626	17.82%	1.84pp	17.82%
	Green	Annamie Paul	252 [i]	3	2	2	1	0.59%	396,988	792,619	2.33%	4.22pp	3.07%
	People's	Maxime Bernier	312	–	–	–			840,993	546,901	4.94%	3.32pp	5.31%
	Free	Michel Leclerc	59	—	–	–			47,252	—	0.28%	—	1.49%
	Maverick	Jay D. Hill (interim)	29	—	–	–			35,178	—	0.21%	—	2.30%
	Independent and No Affiliation		91	1	5	–	1		32,481	41,810	0.19%	0.22pp	0.69%
	Christian Heritage	Rodney L. Taylor	25	–	–	–			8,985	9,916	0.05%	0.05pp	0.67%
	Rhinoceros	Sébastien CoRhino	27	–	–	–			6,085	3,453	0.04%	0.01pp	0.41%
	Libertarian	Jacques Boudreau	13	–	–	–			4,765	3,602	0.03%	0.02pp	0.71%
	Communist	Elizabeth Rowley	26	–	–	–			4,700	795	0.03%	0.01pp	0.36%
	Marxist–Leninist	Anna Di Carlo	36	–	–	–			4,532	408	0.03%	0.01pp	0.26%
	Pour l'Indépendance du Québec (D)	Michel Blondin	10	–	–	–			2,934	881	0.02%		0.51%
	Animal Protection	Liz White	10	–	–	–			2,546	1,862	0.01%	0.01pp	0.48%
	Marijuana	Blair T. Longley	9	–	–	–			2,031	1,111	0.01%		0.42%
	Veterans Coalition (D)	Randy David Joy	7	–	–	–			1,246	5,054	0.01%	0.02pp	0.30%
	Centrist	A.Q. Rana	4	—	–	–			648	—	0.00%	—	0.40%
	National Citizens Alliance (D)	Stephen J. Garvey	4	–	–	–			476	34	0.00%		0.22%
	Patriote (D)	Carl Brochu	2	—	–	–			244	—	0.00%	—	0.21%
	Canada's Fourth Front [j] (D)	Partap Dua	2	–	–	–			105	577	0.00%		0.09%
	Canadian Nationalist (D)	Gus Stefanis	1	–	–	–			52	229	0.00%		0.14%
	Vacant				1	—
Total valid votes									17,034,243	1,136,637	100.00%	–	–
Total rejected ballots									175,568	3,697	1.02%	0.04pp	–
Total			2,010	338	338	338	–	100.00%	17,209,811	1,140,334	100.00%	–	100.00%
Electorate (eligible voters)/turnout									27,366,297	6,761	62.89%	4.14pp	–
Source: House of Commons, [149] validated and judicial recount results; [150] full results spreadsheet [151] (D) indicates a party deregistered before the next election

Results by province

Distribution of seats and popular vote %, by party by province/territory (2021)

Party name			BC	AB	SK	MB	ON	QC	NB	NS	PE	NL	YT	NT	NU	Total
	Liberal	Seats:	15	2	–	4	78	35	6	8	4	6	1	1	–	160
		Vote:	27.0	15.5	10.6	27.9	39.3	33.6	42.4	42.3	46.2	47.7	33.4	38.2	35.9	32.6
	Conservative	Seats:	13	30	14	7	37	10	4	3	–	1	–	–	–	119
		Vote:	33.2	55.3	59.0	39.2	34.9	18.6	33.6	29.4	31.6	32.5	26.3	14.4	16.5	33.7
	NDP	Seats:	13	2	–	3	5	1	–	–	–	–	–	–	1	25
		Vote:	29.2	19.1	21.1	23.0	17.8	9.8	11.9	22.1	9.2	17.4	22.4	32.3	47.7	17.8
	Bloc Québécois	Seats:						32								32
		Vote:						32.1								7.6
	People's	Seats:	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
		Vote:	4.9	7.4	6.6	7.6	5.5	2.7	6.1	4.0	3.2	2.4	–	–	–	4.9
	Green	Seats:	1	–	–	–	1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	2
		Vote:	5.3	0.9	1.1	1.7	2.2	1.5	5.2	1.9	9.6	-	4.4	2.3	-	2.3
	Independents and minor parties	Seats:	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
		Vote:	0.4	1.9	1.6	0.7	0.3	1.6	0.8	0.3	0.2	-	13.6	12.7	–	0.2
Seats:			42	34	14	14	121	78	10	11	4	7	1	1	1	338

Special ballots in the election

Special ballot voting kits issued and returned ^[152]

Reason	Issued	Returned
Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from inside their riding	1,014,708	899,819
Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from outside their riding	199,629	151,117
Living outside of Canada	55,700	27,253
Total	1,270,037	1,078,189

Judicial recounts

In a federal election, a judicial recount is automatically ordered in a riding where the margin of victory is less than 0.1 per cent (one one-thousandth) of the votes cast. In cases where there is a larger but still narrow margin of victory, an elector can request a judicial recount. While no validated results triggered an automatic recount in this election, judicial recounts were requested in four ridings: Brome—Missisquoi, Davenport, Châteauguay—Lacolle and Trois-Rivières. Only Châteauguay—Lacolle saw its initial result overturned: the recount had Liberal incumbent MP Brenda Shanahan proclaimed the ultimate winner over Bloc candidate Patrick O'Hara, by a margin of only 12 votes. ^[153] It was the first time validated results were reversed by a judicial recount since the 2008 election. ^[154] Recounts in Brome—Missiquoi and Davenport began on October 12; however, in both ridings the early count appeared to confirm the initial validated results, leading both challengers to concede defeat and the recount to be terminated. ^{[155] [156]}

Riding	Initial validated results, first and second place				Recount date	Judicially certified results, first and second place
	Candidate		Votes	%		Candidate		Votes	%
Châteauguay—Lacolle, Quebec [157]		Patrick O'Hara, BQ	18,028	36.98%	October 4, 2021		Brenda Shanahan, Liberal	18,029	37.03%
		Brenda Shanahan, Liberal	17,742	36.39%			Patrick O'Hara, BQ	18,017	37.01%
Trois-Rivières, Quebec [158] [159]		René Villemure, BQ	17,119	29.51%	October 5, 2021		René Villemure, BQ	17,136	29.49%
		Yves Lévesque, Conservative	17,027	29.35%			Yves Lévesque, Conservative	17,053	29.35%
Brome—Missisquoi, Quebec [160]		Pascale St-Onge, Liberal	21,488	34.96%	October 12, 2021 (terminated) [161]	Judicial recount terminated at the request of the candidate who had requested it
		Marilou Alarie, BQ	21,291	34.64%
Davenport, Ontario [162]		Julie Dzerowicz, Liberal	19,930	42.13%	October 12, 2021 (terminated) [163]
		Alejandra Bravo, NDP	19,854	41.97%

Initially, the preliminary results of Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley in the province of Manitoba were so close that the Liberal former MP Doug Eyolfson had just 24 votes fewer than the Conservative incumbent MP Marty Morantz, a margin small enough to trigger an automatic recount. ^[164] On September 28, Eyolfson conceded after the validated results had widened the gap to 460 votes, which is approximately 1 per cent of the total vote. ^[165]

10 closest ridings

Incumbents are denoted in bold and followed by (I).

Riding	Winner		Runner-up		Vote difference
Châteauguay—Lacolle		Brenda Shanahan (I)		Patrick O'Hara	12
Davenport		Julie Dzerowicz (I)		Alejandra Bravo	76
Trois-Rivières		René Villemure		Yves Levesque	83
Brome—Missisquoi		Pascale St-Onge		Marilou Alarie	197
Sault Ste. Marie		Terry Sheehan (I)		Sonny Spina	247
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame		Clifford Small		Scott Simms (I)	281
Vancouver Granville		Taleeb Noormohamed		Anjali Appadurai	431
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley		Marty Morantz (I)		Doug Eyolfson	460
Fredericton		Jenica Atwin (I)		Andrea Johnson	502
Kitchener—Conestoga		Tim Louis (I)		Carlene Hawley	577

Maps

Elections Canada 2021 results ^[1]

Map showing results by riding

Cartogram of the 2021 Canadian federal election results using equal-area ridings

Analysis and aftermath

The remarkable similarity of the results and those of the 2019 federal election may have reinforced voters' sentiments that the early election was unnecessary, and its meagre results have left their mark on the electorate. A survey by Maru Public Opinion revealed that 77 per cent of respondents believe that Canada is more divided than ever, and 52 per cent feel that Canada's democratic system is broken. ^[166]

Political parties

Several factors were quickly identified as having had a significant influence on the results. Some political scientists and commentators debated whether the PPC's better performance, compared to the 2019 federal election, contributed to the Conservatives under Erin O'Toole losing to the Liberals. Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi and University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman posited that the PPC may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings. ^{[167] [168] [169]} The votes obtained by PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc; however, it has been described as not a simple generalization, as a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters. ^[170]

Important vote swings to the Liberals were also noted in ridings with significant Chinese-Canadian populations, with especially large ones arising in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and Richmond Centre. ^[171] This was predicted early on in the campaign in polling by Mainstreet Research, which observed that they "were not supporting Conservative candidates in the same way they did in the last couple of elections." ^[171] While some commentators believed that this may have arisen because of the manner the Tories were handling China-Canada issues, ^[171] others wondered whether the abnormally large changes were due to disinformation activity occurring in the local Chinese-language media. ^{[172] [173]}

Even before the mail-in ballots were counted, the Liberals were projected as leading in 158 seats despite seeing their vote share fall from 33.1 per cent to 32.3 per cent. Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to Trudeau, praised the result as a "smart campaign" that prioritized "vote efficiency"; this view was criticized as detracting from other essential aspects of an election campaign. ^[174] Other commentators questioned whether the Liberal vote has reached its effective limit, commenting that minority governments have occurred with greater frequency since the Unite the Right movement and the formation of the Conservative Party in 2003. ^[175]

Had he not been ousted by his caucus, O'Toole would have faced a mandatory leadership review at the next Conservative national conference in 2023. A member of the national council quickly called for a petition to accelerate the process. ^[176] Other Conservatives urged continued support of O'Toole, and called for the party to unify around him. ^[177] Most party and caucus members seemed to have appeared to favour a post-mortem review along the lines conducted by the party after the 2004 federal election. ^[178]

The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3 per cent, its lowest level since the 2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, and Elizabeth May has called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it. ^[179] Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27. ^[180]

Calls for electoral reform

Commentators at The Conversation noted that for a second election in a row the Liberals won the greatest number of seats but lost the popular vote to the Conservatives under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system. ^[181] During the campaign, Trudeau said he remains open to getting rid of Canada's FPTP if re-elected, provided there is consensus on the issue; he also expressed his preference for ranked voting over proportional representation. Trudeau had promised during the 2015 campaign that the 2015 federal election would be the last federal election to use FPTP. ^{[182] [181]}

Candidates elected

Forty-nine MPs were elected for the first time, and two more (Randy Boissonnault and John Aldag) returned after having been defeated in 2019. The number of female MPs—103, up from 100 in 2019—is a record high for the House, and 22 of the first-time MPs are women. ^[183]

Kevin Vuong, whose candidacy was disavowed by the Liberals after nominations had closed, still won the riding of Spadina—Fort York. Vuong announced that he would take his seat as an independent upon being sworn in. ^[184] Adam Vaughan, the previous incumbent, called on Vuong to resign as his victory was "compromised". ^[185] In a radio interview in November, Vuong apologized to his supporters, and he later said, "Of the many, many people who have reached out since my interview, they've encouraged me to move forward. And that's what I'm going to be doing." ^[186]

George Chahal, elected in Calgary Skyview, was the subject of several complaints concerning the removal of campaign flyers of another candidate, substituting them with his own. In January 2022, he accepted and paid a $500 administrative monetary penalty assessed by the Commissioner of Canada Elections in the matter, ^[187] saying, "It's just a late night on an election campaign. Call it a dumb mistake or brain fog—it really doesn't matter why I did what I did. I think what matters is I did it. And I acknowledged it fully, openly, publicly." ^[188]

Chinese government interference

See also: Chinese government interference in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian federal elections

A year following the election, Conservative Party politicians including former leader Erin O'Toole blamed Chinese government interference as a factor behind the loss for the party. In a 2022 interview on the UnCommons podcast with Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, O'Toole opined that media outfits linked to the Chinese Communist Party could have cost the Conservatives up to "eight or nine seats." ^[189]

O'Toole's beliefs were supported by Conservative MP and foreign affairs critic Michael Chong who stated that while the party was initially hesitant to blame China for influencing the vote due to inconclusive evidence at the time, he now believed "The communist leadership in Beijing did interfere in the last federal election by spreading disinformation through proxies on Chinese-language social media platforms that contributed to the defeat of a number of Conservative MPs" citing a report by McGill University. Similar views were shared by O'Toole's director of parliamentary affairs Mitch Heimpel who claimed Canadian national security officers had contacted the Conservatives around election day to express concerns about potential foreign interference. Heimpel also cited the example of former Conservative MP Kenny Chiu who had been targeted by a misinformation campaign by the Chinese social media platform WeChat. Research into alleged electoral interference by McGill University indicated that there was no specific riding specific data to draw a full conclusion on the impact of potential interference and noted "Canadian-Chinese issues were not central to the campaign nor were they top of mind for voters" but concurred researchers had found Chinese state media had worked "with an apparent aim to convince Canadians of Chinese origin to vote against the Conservative Party." ^{[190] [191]}

In February 2023, The Globe and Mail published a series of articles, reporting that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), in several classified documents, advised that China had employed disinformation campaigns and undisclosed donations to support preferred candidates during the campaign, all with the aim of ensuring that the Liberals would win again, but only with a minority. ^{[192] [193]} Other illegal tactics under the Canada Elections Act were also revealed, such as directing international students to work for preferred candidates (ostensibly as volunteers, but being paid by sympathetic business owners), ^[192] and arranging for sympathetic donors to contribute to such campaigns, with the difference between their payments and the resulting tax credits being returned to them. ^{[192] [193]} The Procedure and House Affairs Committee of the House of Commons met to discuss these reports, ^[193] and voted to expand their current inquiry into the 2019 election to include the 2021 election as well. ^[194] In April 2024, an inquiry into foreign interference heard that CSIS concluded in February 2023 that the Chinese government interfered in the 2019 and 2021 elections. ^[195]

See also

• List of Canadian federal general elections

Notes and references

Notes

1. Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He was not seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
2. Annamie Paul lost the by-election in Toronto Centre the previous year and the 2019 general election.
3. Maxime Bernier was unseated in 2019.
4. Previously elected under the Liberal banner
5. Includes Kitchener Centre candidate Raj Saini who withdrew, and Spadina—Fort York candidate Kevin Vuong who was removed as a candidate, both after the deadline for candidate registration, and thus remained on the ballot as Liberals. ^{[142] [143]}
6. Includes Kevin Vuong, who was on the ballot as a Liberal and is still counted as a Liberal until sworn in. Vuong has announced that he will sit as an independent when parliament convenes. ^[144]
7. Includes Beaches—East York candidate Lisa Robinson, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Conservative. ^[145] The Conservatives did not run a candidate in Dartmouth—Cole Harbour after their nominee withdrew shortly before the registration deadline. ^[146]
8. Includes Toronto—St. Paul's candidate Sidney Coles and Cumberland—Colchester candidate Daniel Osborne, who both withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as New Democrats. ^[147]
9. Includes Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke candidate Michael Lariviere, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Green. ^[148]
10. Canada's Fourth Front changed its name to Direct Democracy Party of Canada shortly after the election.

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External links

• Elections Canada