2021 Canadian federal election in Quebec

2021 Canadian federal election in Quebec

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All 78 Quebec seats in the House of Commons of Canada
Opinion polls
Registered	6,495,755
Turnout	4,051,633 (62.37%) [1]
First party Second party   Leader Justin Trudeau Yves-François Blanchet Party Liberal Bloc Québécois Leader since April 14, 2013 January 17, 2019 Last election 35 seats, 34.3% 32 seats, 32.4% Seats before 35 32 Seats won 35 32 Seat change 0 0 Popular vote 1,364,485 1,301,615 Percentage 33.6% 32.1% Swing  0.7  pp  0.3  pp   Third party Fourth party   Leader Erin O'Toole Jagmeet Singh Party Conservative New Democratic Leader since August 24, 2020 October 1, 2017 Last election 10 seats, 16.0% 1 seats, 10.8% Seats before 10 1 Seats won 10 1 Seat change 0 0 Popular vote 756,412 395,401 Percentage 18.6% 9.8% Swing  2.6  pp  1.0  pp
Prime Minister before election Justin Trudeau Liberal Prime Minister after election Justin Trudeau Liberal

In the 2021 Canadian federal election, there were 78 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Quebec, making up 23.1% of all members of the House.

Background

Timeline

See also: By-elections to the 43rd Canadian Parliament

Opinion polling

Opinion polling During the election campaign

Predictions

See also: Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	LPC	CPC	NDP	BQ	GPC	PPC	Others	Margin of error [a]	Sample size [b]	Polling method [c]	Lead
Leger	September 1, 2021	[2]	33	20	13	28	3	2	1	±1.8 pp	3,102	online	5
Leger	December 13, 2020	[3]	33	21	11	30	4	—	1	±3.1 pp	1,004	online	3
Leger	September 3, 2020	[4]	30	20	14	30	5	—	1	±3.1 pp	1,000	online	0

Campaign

The English-language debate gained notoriety when the moderator posed a question to Blanchet that suggested some in English speaking Canada may view Quebec's law on secularism as "discriminatory". He challenged her use of that word, and the response was seen as a turning point in the Bloc's campaign, which saw an upsurge in the polls after the debate. ^[5] The Quebec National Assembly passed a motion calling for a formal apology for the question. ^[6]

Premier of Quebec François Legault endorsed a Conservative government. He called the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Green Party dangerous. ^[7]

Le Devoir endorsed the Bloc Québécois ^[8]

Results

Quebec summary seat results in the 2021 Canadian federal election ^{[9] [10]}

Party		Votes	Vote %	Vote +/-	Seats	Seat +/-
	Liberal	1,364,485	33.6%	0.7pp	35 / 78 (45%)	0
	Bloc Québécois	1,301,615	32.1%	0.3pp	32 / 78 (41%)	0
	Conservative	756,412	18.6%	2.6pp	10 / 78 (13%)	0
	New Democratic	395,401	9.8%	1.0pp	1 / 78 (1%)	0
	People's	108,744	2.7%	1.2pp	0 / 78 (0%)	0
	Green	61,488	1.5%	3.0pp	0 / 78 (0%)	0
	Free	44,214	1.1%	1.1pp	0 / 78 (0%)	0
	Independent	8,476	0.2%	pp	0 / 78 (0%)	0
	Other	12,406	0.3%	pp	0 / 78 (0%)	0
Total		4,053,241	100%	–	78 / 78 (100%)	0

Comparison with national results

Results by party

Party		Popular vote %			Seats in caucus
		QC	Natl. avg.	diff.
	Liberal	33.6	32.6	+1.0	35 / 160 (22%)
	Bloc Québécois	32.1	7.6	+24.5	32 / 32 (100%)
	Conservative	18.6	33.7	-15.1	10 / 119 (8%)
	New Democratic	9.8	17.8	-8.0	1 / 25 (4%)
	Green	1.5	2.3	-0.8	0 / 2 (0%)
	People's	2.7	4.9	-2.2	no caucus
	Free	1.1	0.3	+0.8	no caucus
	Total	–	–	–	78 / 338 (23%)

Student vote results

Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results. ^[11]

Summary of the 2021 Canadian Student Vote in Quebec

Party		Leader	Seats			Popular vote
			Elected	%	Δ	Votes	%	Δ (pp)
	Liberal	Justin Trudeau	40	51.28	6	26,465	31.19	3.54
	Bloc Québécois	Yves-François Blanchet	21	26.92	9	16,200	19.09	4.25
	Conservative	Erin O'Toole	9	11.54	1	11,116	13.10	2.92
	New Democratic	Jagmeet Singh	7	8.97	15	18,083	21.31	2.92
	Green	Annamie Paul	1	1.28	2	5,939	7.00	9.55
	Other		0	0	0	4,512	5.32	1.61
	People's	Maxime Bernier	0	0	0	2,543	3.00	0.16
Total			78	100.00	0	84,858	100.00	–
Source: Student Vote Canada [12]

Notes

1. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
2. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
3. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References

1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268003/federal-election-results-canada-quebec/
2. "poll" (PDF). Leger. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 2, 2021. Retrieved September 2, 2021.
3. "poll" (PDF). Leger.
4. "poll" (PDF). Leger. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 20, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
5. Stevenson, Verity (September 16, 2021). "Controversial question in English debate may have galvanized Bloc voters". CBC News. Archived from the original on September 26, 2021. Retrieved September 26, 2021.
6. "Quebec demands formal apology for controversial question at English debate".
7. Lajoie, Geneviève (September 9, 2021). "Legault pour un gouvernement conservateur minoritaire". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Quebecor. Archived from the original on September 17, 2021. Retrieved September 18, 2021.
8. Myles, Brian (September 18, 2021). "Tout ça pour ça?" [All that for this?]. Le Devoir (in French). Montreal. Archived from the original on September 19, 2021. Retrieved September 19, 2021.
9. "Official Voting Results". www.elections.ca. Archived from the original on May 28, 2025. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
10. "Official Voting Results". www.elections.ca. Archived from the original on May 28, 2025. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
11. https://studentvote.ca/canada/
12. https://studentvote.ca/results/provincial_results/38/2