Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency

Last updated

Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2021 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Contents

Given the cost associated with polling individual constituencies, polling typically occurs in constituencies that are of particular interest, such as those considered marginal or facing an impending by-election. However, it's important to note that the constituencies polled may not necessarily be representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system, true marginal seats, by definition, hold significant influence over the outcome of the election.

Constituency polls

Alberta

Banff—Airdrie

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Spadina StrategiesSeptember 14, 2021 HTML 12.943.711.71.39.813.16.7±5.23 pp350IVR

Calgary Skyview

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 20, 2021 PDF 37.635.412.82.61.31.19.2±5.6 pp303IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 28.352.514.91.61.21.5N/A±0.0 pp50,552Election

Edmonton Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 28, 2021 PDF 4026222136±5.6 pp303IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 33.041.520.62.61.50.8N/A±0.0 pp53,092Election

Edmonton Griesbach

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 12, 2021 PDF 19.038.428.21.73.93.75.1±4.6 pp454IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 17.351.425.12.52.31.4N/A±0.0 pp46,963Election

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 9, 2021 PDF 3735.414.41.46.91.63.3±5 pp299IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 33.650.312.11.81.80.4N/A±0.0 pp53,177Election

British Columbia

Burnaby North—Seymour

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 7, 2021 PDF 28.129.6265.22.30.97.9±5 pp379IVR
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 32.822.713.2N/AN/A6.225.1±4.1 pp558IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 35.519.532.39.62.21N/A±0.0 pp50,525Election

Cloverdale—Langley City

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 12, 2021 PDF 2840173732±5.6 pp307IVR

Delta

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 30, 2021 PDF 3436193314±5.6 pp304IVR

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Oracle PollSeptember 7, 2021 HTML 7.621.019.027.81.0N/A23.6±4.4 pp500Telephone
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 13.625.923.634.61.50.9N/A±0.0 pp53,296Election

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 28, 2021 PDF 2633283226±5.6 pp306IVR

Port Moody—Coquitlam

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 13, 2021 PDF 24.429.029.53.68.92.02.7±5.5 pp320IVR

Surrey Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 4, 2021 PDF 3722226518±6.3 pp285IVR

Vancouver Granville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 15, 2021 PDF 33251573215±5.9 pp280IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 26.621.913.15.10.832.6N/A±0.0 pp53,296Election

Vancouver South

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 15, 2021 PDF 3917254628±6.3 pp242IVR

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 5, 2021 PDF 25.142.315.16.25.10.75.4±3.8 pp662IVR
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 23.127.519.411.9N/A414.1±3.9 pp624IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 34.926.713.922.41.60.5N/A±0.0 pp64,980Election

Manitoba

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 20, 2021 PDF 36.237.010.81.83.01.49.8± pp317IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 35.540.714.24.74.30.7N/A±0.0 pp46,228Election

Kildonan—St. Paul

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 14, 2021 PDF 3330185717±5.5 pp322IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 27.944.821.24.01.20.9N/A±0.0 pp44,298Election

Winnipeg South

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 8, 2021 PDF 43.428.116.323.406.9±5 pp304IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 42.138.713.94.30.9N/AN/A±0.0 pp47,889Election

Newfoundland and Labrador

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 9, 2021 PDF 43.230.510.50.63.4110.9±5 pp298IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 45.739.512.02.9N/AN/AN/A±0.0 pp32,179Election

St. John’s East

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 7, 2021 PDF 45.315.226.71.62.209±5.1 pp363IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 33.218.146.91.8N/AN/AN/A±0.0 pp42,940Election

New Brunswick

Fredericton

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 1, 2021 PDF 4031105365±5.6 pp307IVR

Saint John—Rothesay

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 1, 2021 PDF 4230132417±5.7 pp300IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 37.434.012.210.13.13.2N/A±0.0 pp42,940Election

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton—Canso

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 19, 2021 PDF 39.337.68.21.93.62.37.1±5 pp301IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 38.934.514.87.72.21.9N/A±0.0 pp42,940Election

Sydney—Victoria

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 7, 2021 PDF 42291333010±4.7 pp442IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 30.927.720.15.5N/A21.3N/A±0.0 pp40,565Election

West Nova

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 14, 2021 PDF 38341111113±6 pp262IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 36.439.310.712.7N/A0.9N/A±0.0 pp46,798Election

Ontario

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 23, 2021 HTML 473412242N/A±5 pp309IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 42.444.47.24.11.01.0N/A±0.0 pp53,109Election

Davenport

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 8, 2021 PDF 4611286325±5.6 pp303IVR

Elgin—Middlesex—London

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 11, 2021 PDF 32361421015±5.1 pp294IVR

Flamborough—Glanbrook

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 15, 2021 PDF 3033166707±5.6 pp303IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 36.539.216.56.131.5N/AN/A±0.0 pp62,920Election

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 27, 2021 PDF 28252652510±5.6 pp305IVR

Kanata—Carleton

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 8, 2021 PDF 36.332.818.54.51.50.26.2±5 pp297IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 4336.512.56.61.4N/AN/A±0.0 pp66,772Election

King—Vaughan

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 16, 2021 PDF 48.138.67.41.63.70.20.4±5.6 pp298IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 4543.26.73.91.1N/AN/A±0.0 pp64,446Election

Kitchener Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 18, 2021 HTML 3427132050N/A±5.9 pp287IVR
Mainstreet Research August 24, 2021 PDF 27.823.423.611.91.26.75.5±5.9 pp280IVR
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 25.817.911.114.3N/A426.8±4 pp601IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 36.723.811.3261.90.4N/A±0.0 pp55,374Election

Niagara Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 10, 2021 PDF 35271721018±5 pp301IVR

Oakville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 30, 2021 PDF 4039111315±5.5 pp314IVR

Ottawa Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 23, 2021 PDF 4221285112±5.3 pp344IVR

Parkdale—High Park

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 34.514.316.68.8N/A2.923±4 pp600IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 47.413.231.56.41.11.1N/A±0.0 pp60,887Election

Peterborough—Kawartha

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 1, 2021 PDF 25.837.517.98.63.40.95.9±5.7 pp291IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 39.334.917.17.11.30.5N/A±0.0 pp69,801Election

Spadina—Fort York

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 15, 2021 PDF 47.518.9123.73.93.910.1±4.1 pp574IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 55.817.620.15.21.11.1N/A±0.0 pp60,887Election

St. Catharines

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 2, 2021 PDF 3034212437±5.9 pp273IVR

Toronto Centre

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 39.98.69.515.5N/A2.324.3±4.1 pp574IVR
2020 By-election October 26, 2020 HTML 425.71732.71.11.6N/A±0.0 pp25,205Election
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 57.412.122.37.1N/A1.2N/A±0.0 pp54,512Election

Windsor—Tecumseh

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 16, 2021 PDF 26.818.828.13.516.60.85.5±4.9 pp390IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 33.427.832.33.82.20.3N/A±0.0 pp56,957Election

Prince Edward Island

Malpeque

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 36.525.3712.1N/A0.219±5.9 pp280IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 41.425.66.526.5N/A0.4N/A±0.0 pp23,039Election

Quebec

Abitibi—Témiscamingue

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
SOMMarch 29, 2021 HTML 2595.520N/AN/A635±5.1 pp501IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 25151045.5410N/A±0.0 pp50,155Election

Beauport—Limoilou

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 4, 2021 PDF 263012192155±5.5 pp313IVR

Berthier—Maskinongé

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 10, 2021 PDF 16.714.214.135.13.87.41.37.5±5.6 pp308IVR

Châteauguay—Lacolle

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 4, 2021 PDF 33178276145±5.1 pp370IVR

Jonquière

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 2, 2021 PDF 24.027.76.624.54.21.52.98.5±5.5 pp314IVR

La Prairie

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 11, 2021 PDF 31.014.45.440.80.42.42.33.3±5.2 pp355IVR

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 27, 2021 PDF 42.45.16.134.14.01.70.36.4±5.6 pp311IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 34.26.38.538.56.11.30.4N/A±0.0 pp59,844Election

Pontiac

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 19, 2021 PDF 332414924212±4.9 pp398IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 48.916.810.516.16.11.30.4N/A±0.0 pp62,508Election

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 31, 2021 PDF 29178333325±4.7 pp436IVR

Shefford

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 29, 2021 PDF 29193315336±5.5 pp322IVR

Thérèse-De Blainville

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 13, 2021 PDF 38.210.84.640.11.12.80.22.2±6.6 pp221IVR

Trois-Rivières

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research September 15, 2021 PDF 28322281017±5 pp300IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 2625.216.728.52.50.90.2N/A±0.0 pp60,538Election

Saskatchewan

Saskatoon West

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research August 25, 2021 PDF 1928.628.82.45.21.215.5±5.6 pp305IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 7.347.740.32.72.0N/AN/A±0.0 pp38,985Election

See also

Notes

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. [1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size. [2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

References

  1. "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Archived from the original on February 22, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine , retrieved October 17, 2012