Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election by constituency

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The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies in the lead up to the 46th Canadian federal election are detailed in this article.

Contents

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

Constituency polls

Alberta

Edmonton Riverbend

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1] 		Sample
Size [2] 		Polling Method [3]
LiasonNovember 30, 2025 [1] 45502111N/A±3.9 pp614IVR

British Columbia

Vancouver Kingsway

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1] 		Sample
Size [2] 		Polling Method [3]
LiasonNovember 30, 2025 [2] 312340321N/A±4.01 pp576IVR

Nova Scotia

Acadie—Annapolis

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1] 		Sample
Size [2] 		Polling Method [3]
LiasonNovember 30, 2025 [3] 52375321N/A±4.3 pp513IVR

Ontario

Eglinton—Lawrence

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1] 		Sample
Size [2] 		Polling Method [3]
LiasonNovember 30, 2025 [4] 52413211N/A±3.99 pp602IVR

See also

Notes

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. [5] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size. [6]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

References

  1. ↑ "Edmonton Riverbend: Conservatives Lead by 5". Liaison Strategies. December 5, 2025.
  2. ↑ "Vancouver Kingsway: NDP Lead by 9". Liaison Strategies. December 3, 2025.
  3. ↑ "Acadie—Annapolis: Liberals lead by 15". Liaison Strategies. December 4, 2025.
  4. ↑ "Eglinton Lawrence: Liberals Lead Tories by 11". Liaison Strategies. December 2, 2025.
  5. ↑ "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Archived from the original on February 22, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  6. ↑ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine , retrieved October 17, 2012
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