Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election by constituency

Various polling organizations have conducted opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2025 Canadian federal election on April 28, 2025. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

Constituency polls

British Columbia

Burnaby Central

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	37	34	17	2	—	1	9	±3 pp	952	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	26	37	17	0	—	0	19	±3 pp	1000	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	32	28	16	2	—	0	22	±4.6 pp	453	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Burnaby North—Seymour

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	52	30	6	2	—	2	8	±4 pp	737	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	44	32	6	1	—	0	17	±3 pp	1000	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	38	27	7	2	—	1	25	±3.6 pp	745	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Cloverdale—Langley City

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	36	46	6	1	—	1	10	±3 pp	990	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	36	34	7	1	—	0	20	±4 pp	480	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	35	33	6	1	—	1	23	±2.7 pp	1,362	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	41	39	8	1	1	10	±3 pp	984	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	38	32	8	3	0	18	±3 pp	808	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	49	25	12	3	1	10	±4.1 pp	558	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Research Co.	April 19, 2025	[4]	19	36	29	5	11	±4.9 pp	401	Telephone/Online

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Oracle Poll	April 24, 2025	[5]	22	35	14	28	1	—	±3.5 pp	800	IVR
Oracle Poll	March 31, 2025	[6]	27	34	9	29	2	—	±4.0 pp	600	IVR
Oracle Poll	February 16, 2025 [4]	[7]	6	41	22	28	3	—	±4.0 pp	600	IVR

New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	NDP	Cons.	Green	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
2025 election	April 28, 2025		35	32	31	1	1	–	–	56,034	—
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	37	22	19	3	0	19	±4.8 pp	407	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

North Island—Powell River

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Ind.	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Research Co.	April 19, 2025	[8]	13	45	23	2	2	1	15	±4.9 pp	402	Telephone/Online

North Vancouver—Capilano

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	56	32	6	3	—	1	2	±3 pp	783	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	51	32	4	1	—	0	11	±3 pp	1000	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	42	29	9	2	—	1	17	±3.5 pp	779	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Saanich—Gulf Islands

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Oracle Poll	April 10, 2025	[9]	27	31	6	35	—	—	±4.0 pp	600	IVR
Oracle Poll	March 25, 2025	[10]	22	28	8	41	1	—	±4.0 pp	600	IVR

Surrey Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	40	40	7	1	—	1	11	±3 pp	934	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	29	29	13	2	—	0	29	±2.4 pp	1,638	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	27	29	21	5	—	3	15	±5.5 pp	313	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Vancouver Granville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	58	29	8	1	1	3	±4 pp	533	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	48	29	7	1	0	15	±3 pp	1000	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	51	19	8	2	0	20	±4.1 pp	577	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Vancouver Quadra

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	57	25	5	3	—	0	10	±3 pp	922	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	45	29	5	1	—	0	20	±3 pp	1000	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	53	26	6	2	—	1	12	±3.6 pp	729	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Manitoba

Portage—Lisgar

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research	June 14, 2023 [4]	[11]	14	37	8	3	24	2	12	±5.2 pp	555	IVR

Winnipeg South Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research	June 14, 2023 [4]	[12]	46	28	14	2	2	1	7	±4.7 pp	430	IVR

Ontario

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	40	42	1	1	—	0	16	±4 pp	562	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	43	41	4	2	—	1	9	±4.6 pp	443	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Carleton

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research	June 14, 2022 [4]	[13]	38.0	41.7	9.5	2.0	0.8	1.5	5.8	±4.2 pp	555	IVR

Eglinton—Lawrence

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	54	32	4	2	—	2	6	±3 pp	980	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	56	27	3	0	—	0	13	±4 pp	678	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	49	31	5	2	—	2	11	±3.2 pp	945	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	62	28	6	2	—	0	2	±4 pp	587	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	53	26	2	0	—	0	19	±5 pp	747	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	49	28	7	3	—	2	11	±3.5 pp	845	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Mississauga—Erin Mills

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	54	34	2	1	—	1	8	±4 pp	714	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	44	29	7	4	—	0	16	±4.4 pp	506	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	53	36	2	1	—	2	6	±3 pp	848	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	54	25	4	7	—	1	14	±3.1 pp	1,006	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Mainstreet Research	December 8, 2022 [4]	[14]	47.5	38.8	6.0	4.6	3.1	2	1.5	±5.9 pp	279	IVR
Mainstreet Research	October 27, 2022 [4]	[15]	43.5	40.8	6.9	5.7	1.2	1.9	N/A	±4.3 pp	521	IVR

Mississauga—Streetsville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	52	36	2	2	—	1	7	±4 pp	822	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	43	39	6	2	—	1	18	±3.6 pp	722	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Oakville East

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	54	36	3	2	—	1	4	±4 pp	646	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	48	37	1	1	—	0	13	±4 pp	497	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	43	38	5	1	—	2	11	±4 pp	616	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Oakville West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	57	33	3	2	—	1	4	±4 pp	616	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	53	29	2	1	—	0	14	±4 pp	898	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	48	32	7	2	—	2	9	±3.3 pp	898	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Oxford

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research	June 14, 2023 [4]	[16]	36	36	7	4	5	7	5	±4.5 pp	473	IVR

Richmond Hill South

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 9, 2025	[2]	46	38	2	1	—	0	12	±4 pp	493	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	45	35	3	2	—	1	14	±4 pp	583	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Toronto—St. Paul's

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research	June 2024 [4]	[17]	35	36	9.9	4	2.5	1.5	11	N/A	257	IVR

York Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Cardinal Research	April 16, 2025	[1]	38	44	5	2	2	9	±4 pp	759	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door
Cardinal Research	April 2, 2025	[3]	35	34	10	3	2	16	±4.4 pp	505	Telephone/IVR/door-to-door

Quebec

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	BQ	NDP	Green	PPC	Others	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research	September 9, 2024 [4]	[18]	24.1	7.3	29.6	23.0	—	—	—	±4.7 pp	443	IVR
Mainstreet Research	September 4, 2024 [4]	[18]	23.3	8.1	30.7	19.4	—	—	—	—	—	IVR
Mainstreet Research	July 9, 2024 [4]	[19]	29	14	26	25	3	1	—	±5.4 pp	329	IVR

Saskatchewan

Regina—Wascana

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Spadina Strategies	April 12, 2025	[20]	43	44	5	1	1	6	±5.6 pp	303	IVR

Saskatoon—University

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Spadina Strategies	April 26, 2025	[21]	42	40	13	1	1	3	±4.50 pp	472	IVR
Spadina Strategies	April 11, 2025	[22]	35	41	16	1	1	6	±5.41 pp	386	IVR

Saskatoon South

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Spadina Strategies	April 26, 2025	[21]	39	41	14	1	2	4	±4.67 pp	438	IVR

Saskatoon West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	Cons.	NDP	Green	PPC	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Spadina Strategies	April 26, 2025	[21]	26	43	25	1	2	4	±4.83 pp	410	IVR

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election

Notes

Notes

¹ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. ^[23] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size. ^[24]

² Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.

³ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

⁴ Poll was conducted using the riding boundaries that existed before the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution was implemented.

References

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4. Canseco, Mario (April 20, 2025). "The State of the Race in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford". Research Co. Retrieved April 20, 2025.
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13. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on June 23, 2022. Retrieved September 19, 2022.
14. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Mississauga-Lakeshore" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 2, 2023. Retrieved February 4, 2023.
15. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Mississauga-Lakeshore" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 2, 2023. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
16. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Oxford". Archived from the original on September 2, 2023. Retrieved June 18, 2023.
17. Quito Maggi. "Here's that @MainStResearch poll we did after advance polls". Archived from the original on June 25, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
18. "Bloc ahead in crucial Montreal byelection, according to poll". Montreal. September 12, 2024. Archived from the original on September 14, 2024. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
19. "LaSalle-Emard-Verdun Byelection Polling" . Retrieved July 11, 2024.
20. "Federal - Regina-Wascana Riding Poll". Twitter . Polling Canada. April 15, 2025. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
21. "2025 Federal Election Poll Saskatoon Ridings April 25-26, 2025" (PDF). Spadina Strategies. April 27, 2025. Retrieved April 27, 2025.
22. "2025 Federal Election Riding Poll, Saskatoon-University" (PDF).
23. "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Archived from the original on February 22, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
24. American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine , retrieved October 17, 2012