2025 Canadian federal election in New Brunswick

Last updated

2025 Canadian federal election in New Brunswick
Flag of Canada (Pantone).svg
  2021 April 28, 2025 (2025-04-28) Next 

All 10 New Brunswick seats in the House of Commons
Registered641,089
Turnout463,103 (72.24%) [1]
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Mark Carney portrait February 2020.jpg
Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Leader Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 9, 2025 September 10, 2022 October 1, 2017
Last election6 seats, 42.4%4 seats, 33.6%0 seats, 11.9%
Seats before640
Seats won640
Seat changeSteady2.svg 0Steady2.svg 0Steady2.svg 0
Popular vote247,473189,00313,531
Percentage53.4%40.8%2.9%
SwingIncrease2.svg 11.0%Increase2.svg 7.2%Decrease2.svg 9.0%

Prime minister before election

Mark Carney
Liberal

Prime minister after election

Mark Carney
Liberal

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 10 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of New Brunswick (2.9% of all members).

Contents

2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats. New Brunswick's seat allocation stayed the same at 10 seats. This ensures that the average population per constituency in New Brunswick is 77,561 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 30,287 less people per electoral district than the national average. [2]

Timeline

Predictions

Polling firmLast date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error [a]
Sample
size [b]
Polling method [c] Lead
Narrative ResearchAugust 18, 2024 [3] 3243101040± 2.6 pp400Telephone11

Results

Summary

New Brunswick summary seat results in the 2025 Canadian federal election
PartyVotesVote %Vote +/-SeatsSeat +/-
Liberal 247,473
53.4%
Increase2.svg 11.0pp
6 / 10(60%)
Steady2.svg 0
Conservative 189,003
40.8%
Increase2.svg 7.2pp
4 / 10(40%)
Steady2.svg 0
New Democratic 13,531
2.9%
Decrease2.svg 9.0pp
0 / 10(0%)
Steady2.svg 0
Green 7,849
1.7%
Decrease2.svg 5.3pp
0 / 10(0%)
Steady2.svg 0
People's 3,952
0.8%
Decrease2.svg 5.3pp
0 / 10(0%)
Steady2.svg 0
Independents and minor parties 1,295
0.3%
Decrease2.svg 0.5pp
0 / 10(0%)
Steady2.svg 0
Total463,103
100%
10 / 10(100%)
Steady2.svg 0

[1]

Comparison with national results

Results by party
PartyPopular vote %Seats in caucus
NBNatl.diff.
Liberal 53.443.7+12.1
6 / 169(4%)
Conservative 40.841.3-0.5
4 / 144(3%)
New Democratic 2.96.3-3.4
0 / 7(0%)
Green 1.71.2+0.5
0 / 1(0%)
People's 0.80.7+0.1no caucus
 Total
10 / 343(3%)

Student vote results

Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results. [4] [5]

Summary of the 2025 Canadian Student Vote in New Brunswick
PartyLeaderSeatsPopular vote
Elected %ΔVotes %Δ (pp)
Liberal Mark Carney 550.0Decrease2.svg 111,04236.87Increase2.svg 7.63
Conservative Pierre Poilievre 550.0Increase2.svg 110,60635.41Increase2.svg 13.80
Green Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault 00Steady2.svg 03,26110.89Decrease2.svg 6.00
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 00Steady2.svg 03,22310.76Decrease2.svg 11.09
Other00Steady2.svg 0 1,0023.35Decrease2.svg 2.44
People's Maxime Bernier 00Steady2.svg 08142.72Decrease2.svg 3.59
Total10100.00Steady2.svg 029,948100.00
Source: Student Vote Canada [6]

Notes

  1. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  2. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  3. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References

  1. 1 2 Canada, Elections. "Election Night Results - Provinces & Territories". enr.elections.ca.
  2. "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  3. https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/24-3-Federal-Voting-Intentions-FINAL.pdf [ bare URL PDF ]
  4. "Student Vote". Student Vote Canada. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
  5. Otis, Daniel (2025-04-29). "Students in Canada elected the Conservatives in a mock federal election". CTVNews. Retrieved 2025-05-05.
  6. "Student Vote Canada 2025 — Results" . Retrieved April 29, 2025.