2025 Canadian federal election in Manitoba

2025 Canadian federal election in Manitoba

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All 14 Manitoban seats in the House of Commons
Registered	950,577
Turnout	639,282 (67.25%) [1]
First party Second party Third party   Leader Pierre Poilievre Mark Carney Jagmeet Singh Party Conservative Liberal New Democratic Leader since September 10, 2022 March 9, 2025 October 1, 2017 Last election 7 seats, 39.2% 4 seats, 27.9% 3 seats, 23.0% Seats before 7 4 3 Seats won 7 6 1 Seat change 0 2 2 Popular vote 296,166 260,610 70,574 Percentage 46.3% 40.8% 11.0% Swing 7.1% 12.9% 12.0%
Prime minister before election Mark Carney Liberal Prime minister after election Mark Carney Liberal

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 14 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of Manitoba (4.1% of all members).

2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats. Manitoba's seat allocation stayed the same at 14 seats. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Manitoba is 95,868 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 11,980 less people per electoral district than the national average. ^[2]

Timeline

See also: By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament

Changes in Manitoban seats held (2021–2025)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Winnipeg South Centre	December 12, 2022	Jim Carr	█  Liberal	Died in office	June 19, 2023	Ben Carr	█  Liberal
Portage—Lisgar	February 28, 2023	Candice Bergen	█  Conservative	Resigned	June 19, 2023	Branden Leslie	█  Conservative
Elmwood—Transcona	March 31, 2024	Daniel Blaikie	█  New Democratic	Resigned to work with Premier of Manitoba Wab Kinew	September 16, 2024	Leila Dance	█  New Democratic

Predictions

See also: Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	LPC	CPC	NDP	GPC	PPC	Others	Margin of error [a]	Sample size [b]	Polling method [c]	Lead
Probe Research	April 14, 2025	[3]	43	40	15	1	1	—	± 3.5 pp	800	IVR + online	3
Probe Research	March 16, 2025	[4]	44	42	9	2	2	—	± 3.1 pp	1,000	IVR + online	2
Probe Research	February 6, 2025	[5]	28	45	22	3	2	—	± 4.0 pp	600	IVR + online	17
Probe Research	December 10, 2024	[6]	19	52	24	2	2	—	± 3.1 pp	1,000	IVR + online	28
Probe Research	September 15, 2024	[7]	21	50	24	2	3	—	± 3.1 pp	1,000	IVR + online	26
Probe Research	March 18, 2024	[8]	23	47	26	2	—	1	± 3.1 pp	1,000	IVR + online	21

Results

Summary

Manitoban summary seat results in the 2025 Canadian federal election

Party		Votes	Vote %	Vote +/-	Seats	Seat +/-
	Conservative	296,166	46.3%	7.1pp	7 / 14 (50%)	0
	Liberal	260,610	40.8%	12.9pp	6 / 14 (43%)	2
	New Democratic	70,574	11.0%	12.0pp	1 / 14 (7%)	2
	People's	6,103	1.0%	6.6pp	0 / 14 (0%)	0
	Green	4,678	0.7%	1.0pp	0 / 14 (0%)	0
	Independents and minor parties	1,151	0.2%	0.5pp	0 / 14 (0%)	0
Total		639,282	100%	–	14 / 14 (100%)	0

^[9]

Comparison with national results

Results by party

Party		Popular vote %			Seats in caucus
		MB	Natl.	diff.
	Conservative	46.3	41.3	+5.0	7 / 144 (5%)
	Liberal	40.8	43.7	-2.9	6 / 169 (4%)
	New Democratic	11.0	6.3	+4.7	1 / 7 (14%)
	People's	1.0	0.7	+0.3	no caucus
	Green	0.7	1.2	-0.5	0 / 1 (0%)
	Total	–	–	–	14 / 343 (4%)

Notes

1. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
2. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
3. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References

1. https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
2. "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
3. "Cost of Living, U.S.-Canada Relations Are Top Federal Election Issues for Manitobans)". Probe Research Inc. March 21, 2025. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
4. "Liberals Surge Back To Life (March 2025 Manitoba Federal Voting Intentions)". Probe Research Inc. March 21, 2025. Retrieved March 23, 2025.
5. "February 2025 Manitoba Federal Voting Intentions". Probe Research Inc. February 28, 2025. Retrieved March 4, 2025.
6. Billeck, Scott (2024-12-13). "Already-strong support in Manitoba for federal Tories inches up in latest Probe-Free Press poll". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 2024-12-16.
7. "Federal Political Preferences in Manitoba" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
8. "Federal Political Preferences in Manitoba" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
9. https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e