2019 Manitoba general election

Last updated

2019 Manitoba general election
Flag of Manitoba.svg
←  2016 September 10, 2019 2023  →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout55.04%
 First partySecond party
 
Brian Pallister with Andrew Scheer (48002323306).jpg
Wab Kinew (cropped).jpg
Leader Brian Pallister Wab Kinew
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since July 30, 2012 September 16, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Whyte Fort Rouge
Last election40 seats, 53.01%14 seats, 25.73%
Seats before3812
Seats won3618
Seat changeDecrease2.svg2Increase2.svg6
Popular vote222,569150,016
Percentage46.81%31.55%
SwingDecrease2.svg6.27%Increase2.svg5.77%
 Third partyFourth party
  Dougald Lamont, Manitoba Liberal Leader.jpg James Beddome, Leader of the Green Party of Manitoba in 2016 (3x4 cropped).jpg
Leader Dougald Lamont James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 21, 2017 November 15, 2014
Leader's seat St. Boniface ran in Fort Rouge (lost)
Last election3 seats, 14.46%0 seats, 5.07%
Seats before40
Seats won30
Seat changeDecrease2.svg1Steady2.svg
Popular vote69,49730,295
Percentage14.62%6.37%
SwingIncrease2.svg0.22%Increase2.svg1.30%
Manitoba Provincial Election 2019 - Results by Riding.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed to the right.
Premier before election

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

The 2019 Manitoba general election was held on September 10, 2019, to elect the 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. [1]

Contents

The incumbent Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Brian Pallister, were re-elected to a second majority government with a loss of two seats. The NDP, led by Wab Kinew, gained six seats and retained their position as the official opposition. The Liberals, led by Dougald Lamont, won the remaining three seats.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. [2] As the previous election was held in 2016, the latest possible date for the election was October 6, 2020, or if that would have overlapped with a federal election period, the latest possible date would be April 20, 2021. [3]

However, incumbent Premier Brian Pallister announced instead in June 2019 that he would seek to hold the election over a year early, on September 10, 2019, in order to seek "a new mandate to keep moving Manitoba forward." Pallister visited Lieutenant Governor Janice Filmon on August 12 to officially drop the writ and begin the campaign period. [4]

It had been speculated that Pallister would call an early election in order to take advantage of a large lead in opinion polls, and to get the vote out of the way before new and potentially unpopular budget cuts took effect. A poll taken by the Winnipeg Free Press found that while most respondents disagreed with the early election and agreed that Pallister had moved up the date for partisan reasons, such sentiments were unlikely to imperil Pallister's re-election. [5]

Reorganization of electoral divisions

In 2006, the Electoral Divisions Act was amended to provide for the creation of a permanent commission to determine any necessary redistribution of seats in the Legislative Assembly by the end of 2008, and then every tenth year thereafter. [6] Its final report would take effect upon the dissolution of the relevant Legislature. Following a series of hearings and an interim report, [7] the commission's final report was issued in December 2018, which provided for the following changes: [8]

Abolished ridingsNew ridings
New ridings
Abolished ridings
Merger of ridings
Renaming of ridings
  1. ↑ from part of Southdale and small parts of Radisson, St. Vital, and Seine River
  2. ↑ from parts of St. Paul, The Maples, and Kildonan
  3. ↑ from parts of Selkirk, St. Paul, and a small part of Lac du Bonnet
  4. ↑ from parts of St. Paul, La Verendrye, Dawson Trail, and Morris
  5. ↑ from parts of St. Norbert and Fort Whyte
  6. ↑ parts going to Midland, La Verendrye and Springfield-Ritchot


Timeline

2016

2017

2018

2019

Movement in seats held

41st Manitoba Legislature - Movement in seats held up to the election (2016-2019)
Party2016Gain/(loss) due to2019
Resignation
as MLA		Expulsion/
Suspension		Switching
allegiance		Byelection gainByelection hold
Progressive Conservative 40(2)38
New Democratic 14(2)(1)112
Liberal 314
Manitoba First –11
Independent –3(1)2
Total57(2)––1157
Changes in seats held (2016–2019)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Point Douglas January 9, 2017 Kevin Chief █  New Democratic ResignationJune 13, 2017 Bernadette Smith █  New Democratic
The Maples January 31, 2017 Mohinder Saran █  New Democratic Suspended from caucus█  Independent
Assiniboia June 30, 2017 Steven Fletcher █  PC Expelled from caucus█  Independent
September 11, 2018█  Independent Becomes leader of new party█  Manitoba First
St. Boniface March 7, 2018 Greg Selinger █  New Democratic ResignationJuly 17, 2018 Dougald Lamont █  Liberal
Emerson October 22, 2018 Cliff Graydon █  PC Expelled from caucus█  Independent

Historical results from 1990 onwards

Graph of Manitoba general election results by share of votes, 1990–2019; omitted are minor parties consistently registering less than 2% of the vote.
Graph of Manitoba general election results by seats won, 1990–2019; those of independent MNAs are omitted.

Campaign

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2019) [14]
CandidatesPCNDPLibGrnMFWM1STCommIndTotal
313131339
4292929281116
510101010242250
65555423130
Total575757437653235

Opinion polls

Polling firmLast date
of polling		Link PC NDP Liberal Green Other
Forum ResearchSeptember 9, 2019 [p 1] 432917101
Research Co.September 9, 2019 [p 2] 44311671
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 4, 2019 [p 3] 43.334.215.16.21.2
Research Co.August 29, 2019 [p 4] 46301481
Probe Research IncAugust 24, 2019 [p 5] 402918103
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 19, 2019 [p 6] 42.534.711.99.61.4
ConversoAugust 7, 2019 [p 7] 35.021.012.08.01.0
Probe Research IncJune 17, 2019 [p 8] 422616143
Probe Research IncMarch 24, 2019 [p 9] 4230187
Mainstreet ResearchMarch 24, 2019 [p 10] 44.832.113.16.73.3
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 16, 2019 [p 11] 44.628.016.84.66.0
Probe Research IncDecember 6, 2018 [p 12] 44272153
Mainstreet ResearchNovember 5, 2018 [p 13] 42.328.718.16.04.9
Probe Research IncSeptember 28, 2018 [p 14] 4425208
Mainstreet ResearchJuly 17, 2018 [p 15] 44.929.313.68.73.4
Probe Research IncJune 19, 2018 [p 16] 42301611
Mainstreet ResearchApril 18, 2018 [p 17] 45.630.213.07.8
Probe Research IncApril 13, 2018 [p 18] 4428198
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 6, 2018 [p 19] 39.636.713.310.4
Probe Research IncDecember 14, 2017 [p 20] 4026258
Probe Research IncOctober 10, 2017 [p 21] 3630248
Probe Research IncJune 18, 2017 [p 22] 4230207
Mainstreet ResearchApril 7, 2017 [p 23] 47231911
Probe Research IncMarch 28, 2017 [p 24] 4327208
Probe Research IncDecember 12, 2016 [p 25] 4924198
Probe Research IncSeptember 26, 2016 [p 26] 4820265
Probe Research IncJune 16, 2016 [p 27] 4627188
2016 election April 19, 201653.025.714.55.11.7
Polling firmLast date
of polling		LinkOther
PC NDP Liberal Green
.mw-parser-output .col-begin{border-collapse:collapse;padding:0;color:inherit;width:100%;border:0;margin:0}.mw-parser-output .col-begin-small{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .col-break{vertical-align:top;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .col-break-2{width:50%}.mw-parser-output .col-break-3{width:33.3%}.mw-parser-output .col-break-4{width:25%}.mw-parser-output .col-break-5{width:20%}@media(max-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .col-begin,.mw-parser-output .col-begin>tbody,.mw-parser-output .col-begin>tbody>tr,.mw-parser-output .col-begin>tbody>tr>td{display:block!important;width:100%!important}.mw-parser-output .col-break{padding-left:0!important}} .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Progressive Conservative NDP Liberal Green MB 2020.png

Results

Elections to the 42nd Manitoba Legislature [14]
PartyLeaderCandidatesSeatsPopular vote
2016 Dissolution 2019+/-Votes%+/-
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 57403836-4222,56946.81-6.27
New Democratic Wab Kinew 57141218+4150,01631.55+5.77
Liberal Dougald Lamont 57343–69,49714.62+0.22
Green James Beddome 43––––30,2956.37+1.30
  Manitoba Forward Wayne Sturby7––––1,3390.28
  Manitoba First [a] Douglas Petrick6–1––6470.14-0.98
Communist Darrell Rankin 5––––2140.05-0.02
 Independents3–2––8540.18-0.29
 Vacant0–
Valid votes478,92699.27
Blank and invalid votes3,4950.73
Total235575757482,421100
Registered voters/turnout870,13755.44

Vote and seat summaries


Popular vote
PC
 
46.81%
New Democratic
 
31.55%
Liberal
 
14.62%
Green
 
6.37%
Others
 
0.64%
Seat summary
PC
 
63.16%
New Democratic
 
31.58%
Liberal
 
5.26%


Synopsis of results

2019 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results [16]
Electoral
division		 2016
(Redist)
[17] 		Winning partyVotes [a 1]
1st
place		VotesShareMargin
#		Margin
%		2nd
place		 PC NDP Lib Grn IndOtherTotal
 
Agassiz PCPC5,70075.53%4,73662.75%NDP5,700964463420––7,547
Assiniboia PCPC4,10844.25%8168.79%NDP4,1083,2921,247636––9,283
Borderland PCPC4,88666.09%3,66049.51%Lib4,8862911,226250740–7,393
Brandon East PCPC3,29451.00%94714.66%NDP3,2942,347818–––6,459
Brandon West PCPC4,31158.39%2,55434.59%NDP4,3111,757567748––7,383
Burrows LibNDP2,55539.70%87413.58%PC1,6812,5551,178––1,0226,436
Concordia NDPNDP4,30559.69%2,01027.87%PC2,2954,305612–––7,212
Dauphin PCPC4,80550.52%7738.13%NDP4,8054,032675–––9,512
Dawson Trail PCPC4,55555.41%2,67532.54%Lib4,5551,7851,880–––8,220
Elmwood NDPNDP3,88648.68%1,34616.86%PC2,5403,886746765–457,982
Flin Flon NDPNDP3,17363.19%1,81636.17%PC1,3573,173299192––5,021
Fort Garry PCNDP4,00342.35%99610.54%PC3,0074,0031,719723––9,452
Fort Richmond PCPC3,24242.15%87911.43%Lib3,2421,7082,363379––7,692
Fort Rouge NDPNDP5,05551.24%3,19832.41%PC1,8575,0551,2901,580–849,866
Fort Whyte PCPC5,61957.19%3,86239.30%NDP5,6191,7571,731665–549,826
Interlake-Gimli PCPC6,16558.62%2,68725.55%NDP6,1653,478400473––10,516
Keewatinook LibNDP1,93267.08%1,39748.51%Lib4131,932535–––2,880
Kildonan-River East PCPC5,52351.10%1,84417.06%NDP5,5233,6791,607–––10,809
Kirkfield Park PCPC5,44550.36%2,66824.67%NDP5,4452,7771,695896––10,813
La Vérendrye PCPC5,31072.79%4,26458.45%NDP5,3101,046939–––7,295
Lac du Bonnet PCPC6,17765.91%4,36346.55%NDP6,1771,8141,381–––9,372
Lagimodière PCPC5,18751.78%2,39523.91%NDP5,1872,7921,481557––10,017
Lakeside PCPC6,40968.24%4,32046.00%NDP6,4092,089894–––9,392
McPhillips PCPC3,35938.19%881.00%NDP3,3593,2711,506414–2458,795
Midland PCPC6,70675.01%5,33459.66%NDP6,7061,372862–––8,940
Morden-Winkler PCPC6,10980.86%5,30570.22%Green6,109365277804––7,555
Notre Dame NDPNDP3,42065.01%2,62649.91%PC7943,420719267–615,261
Point Douglas NDPNDP3,13662.35%2,37347.18%PC7633,136594414–1235,030
Portage la Prairie PCPC4,50265.67%2,99443.68%NDP4,5021,508845–––6,855
Radisson PCPC4,52746.97%98910.26%NDP4,5273,5381,002572––9,639
Red River North PCPC5,56957.97%3,18033.10%NDP5,5692,389735740–1739,606
Riding Mountain PCPC6,12665.91%4,15644.72%NDP6,1261,970472726––9,294
Riel PCPC4,73444.75%9909.36%NDP4,7343,7441,471630––10,579
River Heights LibLib5,88453.79%3,18229.09%PC2,7021,5955,884757––10,938
Roblin PCPC6,20355.19%4,18037.19%NDP6,2032,0231,7751,238––11,239
Rossmere PCPC4,36946.91%7518.06%NDP4,3693,618711615––9,313
Seine River PCPC4,37245.04%1,84719.03%NDP4,3722,5252,151659––9,707
Selkirk PCPC4,87251.84%1,54316.42%NDP4,8723,329482716––9,399
Southdale PCPC4,49342.40%4834.56%NDP4,4934,0101,427595–7110,596
Springfield-Ritchot PCPC5,67059.48%3,68838.69%NDP5,6701,9828141,066––9,532
Spruce Woods PCPC5,66568.06%4,34452.19%NDP5,6651,321517820––8,323
St. Boniface NDPLib4,15241.69%1,17711.82%NDP1,9072,9754,152845–819,960
St. James PCNDP4,00247.25%1,22114.42%PC2,7814,002880806––8,469
St. Johns NDPNDP3,54851.88%1,87427.40%PC1,6743,5481,111506––6,839
St. Vital PCNDP4,09244.47%8819.58%PC3,2114,0921,27450262609,201
Steinbach PCPC6,24181.64%5,62573.58%NDP6,241616370418––7,645
Swan River PCPC5,54668.87%3,46242.99%NDP5,5462,084423–––8,053
The Maples NDPNDP2,79239.51%6899.75%Lib1,8832,7922,103289––7,067
The Pas-Kameesak NDPNDP3,18057.90%1,84433.58%PC1,3363,180186790––5,492
Thompson PCNDP2,68654.55%92918.87%PC1,7572,686183298––4,924
Transcona PCNDP4,03046.42%1121.29%PC3,9184,030734–––8,682
Turtle Mountain PCPC6,21067.48%4,83852.57%Green6,2101,0036181,372––9,203
Tuxedo PCPC4,64547.85%2,35824.29%Lib4,6451,9212,287793–619,707
Tyndall Park NDPLib4,30154.67%1,89824.13%NDP9842,4034,301157–227,867
Union Station NDPNDP2,91352.62%1,87633.89%Lib9502,9131,037538–985,536
Waverley PCPC3,26750.05%1,40021.45%NDP3,2671,8671,070324––6,528
Wolseley NDPNDP4,27146.03%93110.03%Green8384,2717783,34052–9,279
  1. ↑ All parties with more than 1% of the vote are shown individually. Independent candidates and other minor parties are aggregated separately.
  = new ridings
  = open seat
  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = incumbent had switched allegiance
  = previously incumbent in another riding
  = incumbency arose from a byelection gain
  = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
  = other incumbents renominated
  = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
  = multiple candidates


Turnout, winning shares and swings

Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2016) [18] [16] [17]
Riding and winning party [a 1] Turnout [a 2] Vote share [a 3] [a 1] Swing [a 4] [a 2]
%Change (pp)%Change (pp)ToChange (pp)
 
AgassizPCHold56.05-1.08
 
75.530.23
 
N/A [a 5]
AssiniboiaPCHold54.70-4.87
 
44.25-0.85
 
NDP-3.59
 
BorderlandPCHold61.868.38
 
66.09-13.21
 
Lib-1.14
 
Brandon EastPCHold45.68-8.81
 
51.00-0.5
 
NDP-0.74
 
Brandon WestPCHold51.27-4.65
 
58.39-9.81
 
NDP-5.68
 
BurrowsNDPGain46.08-6.53
 
39.705.9
 
NDP-18.33
 
ConcordiaNDPHold48.46-5.63
 
59.6915.59
 
NDP11.67
 
DauphinPCHold58.62-3.23
 
50.52-6.28
 
NDP-14.12
 
Dawson TrailPCHold57.840.06
 
55.411.21
 
PC0.22
 
ElmwoodNDPHold50.23-4.76
 
48.683.08
 
NDP7.6
 
Flin FlonNDPHold33.91-0.53
 
63.1924.89
 
NDP15.83
 
Fort GarryNDPGain61.69-6.85
 
42.356.45
 
NDP3.62
 
Fort RichmondPCHold57.38-9.72
 
42.15-5.55
 
PC5.32
 
Fort RougeNDPHold58.76-6.39
 
51.2413.34
 
NDP11.79
 
Fort WhytePCHold60.35-0.36
 
57.19-7.31
 
NDP-4.3
 
Interlake-GimliPCHold65.5658.62-2.18
 
KeewatinookNDPGain21.84-2.47
 
67.0826.38
 
NDP-29.94
 
Kildonan-River EastPCHold61.8251.10-6.2
 
Kirkfield ParkPCHold61.25-7.47
 
50.36-1.84
 
PC0.67
 
La VérendryePCHold55.410.09
 
72.79-5.81
 
PC5.68
 
Lac du BonnetPCHold61.246.32
 
65.91-11.59
 
NDP-4.2
 
LagimodièrePCHold62.2751.78-12.02
 
LakesidePCHold59.221.44
 
68.24-11.76
 
NDP-8.62
 
McPhillipsPCHold56.6438.19-9.51
 
MidlandPCHold59.27-0.38
 
75.01-3.39
 
PC4.76
 
Morden-WinklerPCHold51.19-0.74
 
80.86-2.24
 
Green-3.11
 
Notre DameNDPHold40.86-10.52
 
65.0120.21
 
NDP8.2
 
Point DouglasNDPHold36.00-6.53
 
62.357.45
 
NDP6.1
 
Portage la PrairiePCHold48.64-2.69
 
65.67-4.93
 
PC0.82
 
RadissonPCHold56.47-6.37
 
46.97-6.83
 
NDP-4.08
 
Red River NorthPCHold63.9657.97-8.23
 
Riding MountainPCHold55.720.22
 
65.91-7.29
 
PC2.67
 
RielPCHold63.24-4.14
 
44.75-6.15
 
NDP-5.48
 
River HeightsLibHold65.48-7.23
 
53.797.59
 
Lib5.89
 
RoblinPCHold61.83-3.82
 
55.19-7.11
 
Lib-3.84
 
RossmerePCHold59.62-0.9
 
46.91-11.69
 
NDP-5.58
 
Seine RiverPCHold62.1245.04-7.96
 
SelkirkPCHold59.250.52
 
51.84-4.46
 
NDP-5.53
 
SouthdalePCHold61.66-0.65
 
42.40-9.2
 
NDP-17.85
 
Springfield-RitchotPCHold60.5659.48-7.22
 
Spruce WoodsPCHold56.754.76
 
68.06-3.34
 
N/A [a 6]
St. BonifaceLibGain59.78-3.89
 
41.6922.89
 
PC-2.91
 
St. JamesNDPGain55.78-6.16
 
47.2512.65
 
NDP-12.03
 
St. JohnsNDPHold47.34-4.09
 
51.8814.58
 
NDP9.86
 
St. VitalNDPGain60.78-3.19
 
44.4710.17
 
NDP-7.23
 
SteinbachPCHold52.490.78
 
81.64-6.96
 
Lib-3.24
 
Swan RiverPCHold54.87-5.31
 
68.873.47
 
PC9.98
 
The MaplesNDPHold53.08-2.55
 
39.513.21
 
NDP5.62
 
The Pas-KameesakNDPHold43.0412.34
 
57.9019.1
 
NDP14.47
 
ThompsonNDPGain37.27-0.08
 
54.5516.15
 
NDP-11.82
 
TransconaNDPGain52.45-3.54
 
46.4218.22
 
NDP-11.07
 
Turtle MountainPCHold57.283.99
 
67.48-8.62
 
N/A [a 6]
TuxedoPCHold57.90-4.5
 
47.85-5.25
 
NDP-7.52
 
Tyndall ParkLibGain56.392.99
 
54.6723.27
 
Lib-16.46
 
Union StationNDPHold44.06-7.92
 
52.6212.72
 
NDP11.44
 
WaverleyPCHold51.9550.05-4.85
 
WolseleyNDPHold56.96-6.3
 
46.031.33
 
NDP2.35
 
  1. 1 2 using 2016 redistribution data from CBC
  2. 1 2 using 2016 base data from Elections Manitoba
  3. ↑ Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2011.
  4. ↑ Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2011; negative points to 2011's second-place party being swung to.
  5. ↑ an Independent candidate came in second in 2016, but did not stand in 2019
  6. 1 2 Manitoba First (then called the Manitoba Party) finished second in 2016, but opted not to field candidates in this election

Changes in party shares

Share change analysis by party and riding (2019 vs 2016) [16] [17]
Riding Green Liberal NDP PC
%Change (pp)%Change (pp)%Change (pp)%Change (pp)
 
Agassiz5.570.27
 
6.135.23
 
12.776.37
 
75.530.23
 
Assiniboia6.85-0.55
 
13.43-5.37
 
35.466.86
 
44.25-0.85
 
Borderland3.381.38
 
16.581.68
 
3.940.14
 
66.09-13.21
 
Brandon East12.660.56
 
36.34-0.06
 
51.00-0.50
 
Brandon West10.1310.13
 
7.68-0.02
 
23.80-0.40
 
58.39-9.81
 
Burrows–-4.30
 
18.30-23.30
 
39.705.90
 
26.126.32
 
Concordia8.49-1.81
 
59.6915.59
 
31.82-9.88
 
Dauphin–-6.70
 
7.10-0.70
 
42.3915.89
 
50.52-6.28
 
Dawson Trail–-2.70
 
22.873.97
 
21.722.42
 
55.411.21
 
Elmwood9.589.58
 
9.358.65
 
48.683.08
 
31.82-13.28
 
Flin Flon3.822.02
 
5.95-20.05
 
63.1924.89
 
27.031.93
 
Fort Garry7.65-4.85
 
18.194.69
 
42.356.45
 
31.81-5.89
 
Fort Richmond4.930.33
 
30.7218.02
 
22.20-11.90
 
42.15-5.55
 
Fort Rouge16.01-1.19
 
13.08-1.92
 
51.2413.34
 
18.82-9.28
 
Fort Whyte6.77-0.43
 
17.626.22
 
17.882.18
 
57.19-7.31
 
Interlake-Gimli4.501.50
 
3.80-7.30
 
33.078.47
 
58.62-2.18
 
Keewatinook18.58-23.42
 
67.0826.38
 
14.34-2.86
 
Kildonan-River East–-1.80
 
14.875.47
 
34.043.54
 
51.10-6.20
 
Kirkfield Park8.290.39
 
15.686.18
 
25.68-4.52
 
50.36-1.84
 
La Vérendrye–-3.20
 
12.872.27
 
14.346.74
 
72.79-5.81
 
Lac du Bonnet–-1.70
 
14.7413.54
 
19.36-0.34
 
65.91-11.59
 
Lagimodière5.565.36
 
14.780.88
 
27.875.87
 
51.78-12.02
 
Lakeside9.525.92
 
22.245.84
 
68.24-11.76
 
McPhillips4.710.21
 
17.124.32
 
37.193.19
 
38.19-9.51
 
Midland–-4.50
 
9.640.34
 
15.357.55
 
75.01-3.39
 
Morden-Winkler10.640.84
 
3.67-0.33
 
4.831.73
 
80.86-2.24
 
Notre Dame5.08-1.72
 
13.67-8.53
 
65.0120.21
 
15.09-4.81
 
Point Douglas8.232.73
 
11.81-9.09
 
62.357.45
 
15.17-1.23
 
Portage la Prairie12.33-6.47
 
22.0011.40
 
65.67-4.93
 
Radisson5.935.93
 
10.40-2.20
 
36.715.01
 
46.97-6.83
 
Red River North7.707.70
 
7.65-4.45
 
24.873.17
 
57.97-8.23
 
Riding Mountain7.811.31
 
5.08-2.82
 
21.2013.40
 
65.91-7.29
 
Riel5.965.26
 
13.90-5.50
 
35.396.29
 
44.75-6.15
 
River Heights6.92-1.18
 
53.797.59
 
14.582.88
 
24.70-9.10
 
Roblin11.020.02
 
15.792.39
 
18.004.70
 
55.19-7.11
 
Rossmere6.606.60
 
7.63-0.57
 
38.858.25
 
46.91-11.69
 
Seine River6.796.79
 
22.162.86
 
26.01-1.19
 
45.04-7.96
 
Selkirk7.621.22
 
5.13-2.87
 
35.428.12
 
51.84-4.46
 
Southdale5.624.82
 
13.47-3.33
 
37.846.94
 
42.40-9.20
 
Springfield-Ritchot11.1810.08
 
8.54-6.26
 
20.795.59
 
59.48-7.22
 
Spruce Woods9.858.15
 
6.21-1.19
 
15.872.27
 
68.06-3.34
 
St. Boniface8.48-3.52
 
41.6922.89
 
29.87-12.13
 
19.15-7.95
 
St. James9.52-0.48
 
10.39-3.41
 
47.2512.65
 
32.84-5.66
 
St. Johns7.40-3.10
 
16.25-6.65
 
51.8814.58
 
24.48-4.72
 
St. Vital5.46-0.84
 
13.85-2.75
 
44.4710.17
 
34.90-7.90
 
Steinbach5.475.47
 
4.84-1.36
 
8.062.86
 
81.64-6.96
 
Swan River–-5.40
 
5.25-2.15
 
25.884.38
 
68.873.47
 
The Maples4.09-2.91
 
29.766.96
 
39.513.21
 
26.64-7.26
 
The Pas-Kameesak14.3811.08
 
3.39-15.91
 
57.9019.10
 
24.33-14.17
 
Thompson6.056.05
 
3.72-17.18
 
54.5516.15
 
35.68-4.82
 
Transcona8.45-10.15
 
46.4218.22
 
45.13-4.67
 
Turtle Mountain14.9111.51
 
6.722.32
 
10.902.20
 
67.48-8.62
 
Tuxedo8.17-5.83
 
23.564.96
 
19.795.49
 
47.85-5.25
 
Tyndall Park2.00-4.50
 
54.6723.27
 
30.55-5.75
 
12.51-13.19
 
Union Station9.72-4.48
 
18.73-4.07
 
52.6212.72
 
17.16-2.44
 
Waverley4.962.46
 
16.392.69
 
28.601.20
 
50.05-4.85
 
Wolseley36.006.80
 
8.38-0.62
 
46.031.33
 
9.03-4.27
 
      = did not field a candidate in 2016

    Summary analysis

    Party candidates in 2nd place [14]
    Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
    PCNDPLiberalGrn
    Progressive Conservative 304236
    New Democratic 143118
    Liberal128
    Total15327357
    Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results [14]
    PartiesSeats
    █  Progressive Conservative █  New Democratic 44
    █  Progressive Conservative █  Liberal 5
    █  Progressive Conservative █  Green 2
    █  New Democratic █  Liberal 5
    █  New Democratic █  Green 1
    Total57
    Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party [14]
    Parties1st2nd3rd4th5thTotal
    Progressive Conservative 3615657
    New Democratic 18326157
    Liberal 37321557
    Green 31227143
    Manitoba First 55
      Manitoba Forward 134
    Independent 123

    Seats changing hands

    Elections to the 42nd Legislative Assembly of Manitoba – seats won/lost by party, 2016–2019
    Party2016
    (Redist)    		Gain from (loss to)2019
    PCNDPLib
    Progressive Conservative 41(5)36
    New Democratic 1352(2)18
    Liberal 32(2)3
    Total575–2(7)2(2)57

    Nine seats changed allegiance in 2019:

    Resulting composition of the 42nd Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
    SourceParty
    PCNDPLibTotal
    Seats retainedIncumbents returned297137
    Seats retained by incumbents from other ridings55
    Open seats held145
    Ouster of incumbent changing affiliation11
    Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated33
    Open seats gained44
    Seat gained by incumbent from another riding11
    Byelection gain held11
    Total3618357

    Incumbents not running for reelection

    RidingIncumbent at dissolution and subsequent nomineeNew MLA
    Assiniboia   Steven Fletcher [19] (elected as PC)none  Scott Johnston
    Fort Garry-Riverview (redistributed to Fort Garry)  James Allum [20] Mark Wasyliw [21]  Mark Wasyliw
    Kildonan (redistributed to Kildonan-River East)  Nic Curry [13] Cathy Cox  Cathy Cox
    Logan (redistributed to Notre Dame and Union Station)  Flor Marcelino [22] Uzoma Asagwara  Uzoma Asagwara
    Wolseley   Rob Altemeyer [23] Lisa Naylor [24]  Lisa Naylor
    Minto (redistributed to Notre Dame)  Andrew Swan [25] Malaya Marcelino  Malaya Marcelino
    Keewatinook   Judy Klassen [26] Jason Harper  Ian Bushie

    Notes

    1. ↑ Party name changed from Manitoba Party in 2019. [15]

    References

    1. ↑ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election Archived February 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine . Retrieved June 24, 2012.
    2. ↑ Elections Act , CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
    3. ↑ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
    4. 1 2 Hatherly, Dana (August 12, 2019). "Pallister makes it official: Manitoba election is Sept. 10". CBC News .
    5. ↑ Robertson, Dylan (June 25, 2019). "No hard feelings on early Manitoba election: poll". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
    6. ↑ The Elections Reform Act , S.M. 2006, c. 15, Sch. C
    7. ↑ "Interim Report 2018" (PDF). Manitoba Electoral Divisions Boundaries Commission. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 13, 2018. Retrieved October 4, 2025.
    8. ↑ "Final Report 2018" (PDF). boundariescommission.mb.ca. Manitoba Electoral Divisions Boundaries Commission. December 2018.
    9. ↑ "Wolseley MLA Rob Altemeyer won't run in next provincial election". CBC News . March 21, 2018.
    10. ↑ "MLA Biographies - Living". Legislative Assembly of Manitoba . Government of Manitoba . Retrieved October 12, 2023.
    11. ↑ "Manitoba Electoral Boundaries Commission - Final Report 2018". Manitoba Electoral Boundaries Commission. Retrieved December 14, 2018.
    12. ↑ "Manitoba NDP's James Allum to finish term, won't seek re-election". The Province. December 14, 2018. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
    13. 1 2 "Manitoba Tory MLA Nic Curry won't seek re-election". CBC.ca. April 3, 2019. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
    14. 1 2 3 4 5 "Results Summary - 42nd General Election" (PDF). electionsmanitoba.ca. Elections Manitoba . Retrieved February 1, 2023.
    15. ↑ "Political Parties – 2019 Annual Report" (PDF). Elections Manitoba. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
    16. 1 2 3 "Results of 42nd General Election, September 10, 2019". Elections Manitoba . Retrieved September 30, 2025.
    17. 1 2 3 Marcoux, Jacques (August 27, 2019). "New Manitoba election boundaries give upper hand to Progressive Conservatives, CBC News analysis finds". CBC News .
    18. ↑ "Results of 41st General Election, April 19, 2016". Elections Manitoba . Retrieved October 3, 2025.
    19. ↑ "Manitoba MLA Steven Fletcher to run for People's Party of Canada". CBC News . May 22, 2019. Retrieved June 11, 2019.
    20. ↑ "Manitoba NDP's James Allum to finish term, won't seek re-election". The Canadian Press via The Province. December 14, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
    21. ↑ "Winnipeg school trustee upset with province over funding to seek NDP nomination". The Canadian Press via CBC Manitoba. March 19, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
    22. ↑ Froese, Ian (June 3, 2019). "Former interim NDP leader Flor Marcelino won't run for re-election". CBC Manitoba. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
    23. ↑ "Wolseley MLA Rob Altemeyer won't run in next provincial election". CBC Manitoba. March 21, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
    24. ↑ "News in Brief - Naylor wins Wolseley NDP nomination". Winnipeg Free Press. March 21, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
    25. ↑ "Longtime former Manitoba NDP cabinet minister will not seek re-election". CBC Manitoba. May 17, 2019. Retrieved July 16, 2019.
    26. ↑ Schroeder, Lara (April 11, 2019). "MLA Judy Klassen sets sights on federal seat, saying 'proper representation' would save lives". CBC News . Retrieved September 2, 2019.

    Opinion poll sources

    1. ↑ "Manitoba Election".
    2. ↑ "Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba". September 10, 2019.
    3. ↑ Manitoba PC Government most likely outcomeMainstreet Research Archived October 10, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
    4. ↑ "Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba". August 30, 2019.
    5. ↑ "Manitoba Progressive Conservatives holding on to lead: poll - CBC News". CBC. August 31, 2019. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
    6. ↑ "Manitoba PCS Have the Lead, but Kinew is the Most Popular Leader".
    7. ↑ "Pollster attributes inaccurate election survey to weight of northern Manitoba numbers - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".
    8. ↑ Robertson, Dylan (June 25, 2019). "Jun 2019: No hard feelings on early Manitoba election: Poll". Winnipeg Free Press.
    9. ↑ http://www.probe-research.com/documents/190402%20March%202019%20MB%20Omni%20Prov%20Party%20Standings.pdf [ dead link ]
    10. ↑ "NDP Make Gains in Manitoba but PCS Still Lead".
    11. ↑ "Pallister PCS Extend Lead over NDP".
    12. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 28, 2018. Retrieved December 28, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    13. ↑ "Pallister PCS Maintain Healthy Lead over NDP as Liberals Gain Five".
    14. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    15. ↑ "Pallister PCS Still Ahead in Manitoba".
    16. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    17. ↑ "Pallister PCS Widen Lead over NDP".
    18. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 23, 2018. Retrieved April 23, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    19. ↑ "New poll suggests Wab Kinew's NDP barely trails Brian Pallister's PCS - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".
    20. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 29, 2017. Retrieved December 28, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    21. ↑ Lett, Dan (October 20, 2017). "Oct 2017: Support for Pallister gov't drops after 18 months of cuts, controversy". Winnipeg Free Press.
    22. ↑ Lett, Dan (July 3, 2017). "Jul 2017: Tories' honeymoon already over". Winnipeg Free Press.
    23. ↑ "47% Support Pallister PCS, but Low Grades for Healthcare; Carbon Tax".
    24. ↑ Martin, Nick (April 9, 2017). "Apr 2017: Pallister government's popularity holding firm: Poll". Winnipeg Free Press.
    25. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    26. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    27. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

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