2023 Manitoba general election

Last updated

2023 Manitoba general election
Flag of Manitoba.svg
  2019 October 3, 2023 44th  

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Turnout55.29% Increase2.svg
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Ambassador David L. Cohen Meet with Wab Kinew F8VGCCiagAA9BS4 (cropped).jpg
Heather Stefanson Consulate Winnipeg Independence Day Celebration 2022 (cropped).jpg
Dougald Lamont, Manitoba Liberal Leader.jpg
Leader Wab Kinew Heather Stefanson Dougald Lamont
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 October 30, 2021 October 21, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Tuxedo St. Boniface (lost re-election)
Last election18 seats, 31.38%36 seats, 47.07%3 seats, 14.48%
Seats before18353
Seats won34221
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 16Decrease2.svg 13Decrease2.svg 2
Popular vote221,695203,35051,634
Percentage45.63%41.86%10.63%
SwingIncrease2.svg 14.25pp Decrease2.svg 5.21pp Decrease2.svg 3.85pp

Manitoba Provincial Election 2023 - Results by Riding.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed on the bottom.

Premier before election

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Wab Kinew
New Democratic

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

Contents

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. [1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date. [2] The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure. [3] [4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, and parental rights in education. [5] [6] Kinew led the NDP into the election. [7] The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget. [8] [9] Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg. [10] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services. [10] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes. [11] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60. [12] They also promised a new debt relief system if elected. [13] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting. [14]

During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of the murdered Indigenous women Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search. [5] [15] Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign. [16]

Other campaign issues included crime, [17] agriculture [18] and affordable housing. [19]

Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP. [20] In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million. [21]

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)
CandidatesNDPPCLibGrnKPCommIndTotal
2448
334343031102
4161616742364
53333315
Total57574913553189

Timeline

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Legislature summary

[22]

Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
Party [23] LeaderCandidatesSeatsPopular vote
2019 DissolutionElected%+/–Votes%Change
(pp)
New Democratic Wab Kinew 5718183459.65+16221,69545.63+14.25
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 5736352238.60–14203,35041.86−5.21
Liberal Dougald Lamont 493311.75–251,63410.63−3.85
  Keystone Kevin Friesen53,7270.77New
Green Janine Gibson133,5840.74−5.63
Communist Andrew Taylor54610.09+0.04
 Independents31,3830.28+0.10
 Vacant1
Valid votes485,83499.31
Blank and invalid votes3,3740.69
Total1895757489,208100
Registered voters/turnout884,86455.29

    Incumbents not running for re-election

    Electoral districtIncumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nomineeNew MLA
    Agassiz   Eileen Clarke [24] Jodie Byram Jodie Byram
    Brandon West   Reg Helwer [25] Wayne Balcaen Wayne Balcaen
    Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard [26] Paramjit Shahi Jennifer Chen
    Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox [27] Alana Vannahme Rachelle Schott
    Lakeside   Ralph Eichler [28] Trevor King Trevor King
    La Verendrye   Dennis Smook [29] Konrad Narth Konrad Narth
    McPhillips   Shannon Martin [30] Sheilah Restall Jasdeep Devgan
    Midland   Blaine Pedersen [31] Lauren Stone Lauren Stone
    Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart [32] Jeff Bereza Jeff Bereza
    Roblin   Myrna Driedger [33] Kathleen Cook Kathleen Cook
    Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen [34] Grant Jackson Grant Jackson
    Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere [35] Richard Perchotte  Richard Perchotte

    Candidates

    The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively. [36] [37] [38]

    Marginal seats

    Previous marginal seats

    Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

    Seat2019 held2023 winner
    PartyMarginPartyMargin
    McPhillips  PC1.00% NDP3.02%
    Transcona  NDP1.29% NDP23.06%
    Southdale  PC4.56% NDP14.32%
    Rossmere  PC8.06% NDP8.29%
    Dauphin  PC8.13% NDP3.28%
    Assiniboia  PC8.79% NDP9.69%
    Riel  PC9.36% NDP16.61%
    St. Vital  NDP9.58% NDP30.79%
    The Maples  NDP9.75% NDP32.33%
    Wolseley  NDP9.98% NDP65.42%

    New marginal seats

    Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.

    Seat2019 held2023 Winner
    PartyMarginPartyMargin
    Lagimodière  PC23.91% NDP0.84%
    Brandon West  PC24.59% PC1.22%
    Waverley  PC21.45% NDP1.30%
    Tuxedo  PC24.57% PC2.65%
    McPhillips  PC1.00% NDP3.02%
    Dauphin  PC8.13% NDP3.28%
    Selkirk  PC16.42% PC4.98%
    River Heights  Lib29.09% NDP5.58%
    Kirkfield Park  PC24.68% NDP5.94%
    Interlake-Gimli  PC25.55% PC6.59%
    Kildonan-River East  PC17.06% NDP6.71%
    Rossmere  PC8.06% NDP8.29%
    Dawson Trail  PC32.54% PC8.90%
    Roblin  PC37.19% PC9.15%
    Assiniboia  PC8.79% NDP9.69%

    Results

    Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election. [39] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital. [40] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings. [41] Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points. [42]

    Results overview

    Popular vote
    NDP
    45.63%
    PC
    41.86%
    Liberal
    10.63%
    Others
    1.88%
    Seats
    NDP
    59.65%
    PC
    38.60%
    Liberal
    1.75%

    Synopsis of results

    2023 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results [43] [44]
    Electoral
    division [a 1]
    Winning partyTurnout
    [a 2]
    Votes
    2019 1st
    place
    VotesShareMargin
    #
    Margin
    %
    2nd
    place
    3rd
    place
    NDP PC Lib Key Green Comm IndTotal
     
    Agassiz PCPC4,51963.85%2,96641.91%NDPKey53.35%1,5534,5193116947,077
    Assiniboia PCNDP4,72250.02%9169.70%PCLib55.70%4,7223,8069139,441
    Borderland PCPC4,47972.66%3,55857.72%NDPLib50.45%9214,4797646,164
    Brandon East PCNDP3,75855.64%1,06715.80%PCLib46.99%3,7582,6913056,754
    Brandon West PCPC3,81448.75%891.14%NDPGreen51.68%3,7253,8142847,823
    Burrows NDPNDP3,03246.04%95814.55%LibPC44.64%3,0321,4792,0746,585
    Concordia NDPNDP4,23564.52%2,38736.37%PCLib44.03%4,2351,8484816,564
    Dauphin PCNDP4,88752.06%3864.11%PCN/A60.30%4,8874,5019,388
    Dawson Trail PCPC4,59250.70%5436.00%NDPGreen56.86%4,0494,5924169,057
    Elmwood NDPNDP4,93362.21%2,74534.62%PCLib49.32%4,9332,188452304527,929
    Flin Flon NDPNDP2,95176.25%2,03252.51%PCN/A44.17%2,9519193,870
    Fort Garry NDPNDP5,31958.82%2,91432.22%PCLib58.75%5,3192,4051,0822379,043
    Fort Richmond PCNDP4,45554.45%1,57619.26%PCLib62.07%4,4552,8798488,182
    Fort Rouge NDPNDP6,76170.57%5,19554.22%PCLib58.04%6,7611,5661,1521029,581
    Fort Whyte PCPC5,44247.87%1,22910.81%LibNDP64.37%1,7145,4424,21311,369
    Interlake-Gimli PCPC5,14349.59%6836.59%NDPKey65.04%4,4605,14337439310,370
    Keewatinook NDPNDP1,82059.28%76224.82%PCLib39.14%1,8201,0581923,070
    Kildonan-River East PCNDP5,57449.26%7296.44%PCLib63.18%5,5744,84589611,315
    Kirkfield Park PCNDP5,06744.55%6615.81%PCLib63.76%5,0674,4061,69620511,374
    La Verendrye PCPC4,58661.02%3,03240.34%NDPKey55.54%1,5544,5866407367,516
    Lac du Bonnet PCPC5,67058.51%2,22322.94%NDPGreen60.77%3,4475,6705739,690
    Lagimodière PCNDP5,71146.24%1120.91%PCLib64.05%5,7115,5991,04112,351
    Lakeside PCPC6,08861.68%3,40634.51%NDPLib60.98%2,6826,0881,1019,871
    McPhillips PCNDP4,90547.30%3253.13%PCLib54.61%4,9054,58088610,371
    Midland PCPC6,22769.38%4,21646.97%NDPLib56.95%2,0116,2277378,975
    Morden-Winkler PCPC5,13573.47%3,53550.58%NDPLib44.32%1,6005,1352546,989
    Notre Dame NDPNDP3,83275.58%3,10061.14%PCLib37.88%3,832732319105825,070
    Point Douglas NDPNDP3,36773.31%2,62557.15%PCLib32.76%3,3677424844,593
    Portage la Prairie PCPC3,81659.61%1,89829.65%NDPGreen46.77%1,9183,8163013676,402
    Radisson PCNDP5,95452.31%1,14710.08%PCLib57.65%5,9544,80762111,382
    Red River North PCPC5,92660.35%2,03320.70%NDPN/A60.47%3,8935,9269,819
    Riding Mountain PCPC5,64463.02%2,74930.69%NDPLib57.42%2,8955,6444178,956
    Riel PCNDP6,16054.65%1,88216.70%PCLib65.70%6,1604,27883411,272
    River Heights LibNDP5,04744.21%6435.63%LibPC67.59%5,0471,8074,40415811,416
    Roblin PCPC6,08849.72%1,1209.15%NDPLib62.54%4,9686,0881,18912,245
    Rossmere PCNDP4,86350.74%8018.36%PCLib60.42%4,8634,0624781819,584
    Seine River PCNDP5,38152.08%1,40713.62%PCLib63.64%5,3813,97484613110,332
    Selkirk PCPC4,96352.49%4704.97%NDPN/A56.29%4,4934,9639,456
    Southdale PCNDP5,56948.48%1,64714.34%PCLib64.72%5,5693,9221,86113511,487
    Springfield-Ritchot PCPC5,75254.89%1,92518.37%NDPLib58.30%3,8275,75290010,479
    Spruce Woods PCPC4,98661.81%3,05037.81%NDPLib56.54%1,9364,9861,1458,067
    St. Boniface LibNDP5,58553.38%2,17220.76%LibPC60.06%5,5851,3913,4137310,462
    St. James NDPNDP5,44864.82%3,12237.14%PCLib54.68%5,4482,3266318,405
    St. Johns NDPNDP4,26260.76%3,14544.83%IndPC46.98%4,2621,1015351,1177,015
    St. Vital NDPNDP5,28861.15%2,75131.81%PCLib56.88%5,2882,5378238,648
    Steinbach PCPC5,86874.37%4,64758.90%NDPLib48.14%1,2215,8688017,890
    Swan River PCPC4,80162.91%2,36831.03%NDPKey57.90%2,4334,8013977,631
    The Maples NDPNDP3,90556.13%2,32533.42%PCLib50.62%3,9051,5801,4726,957
    The Pas-Kameesak NDPNDP3,52267.18%2,01638.45%PCLib53.52%3,5221,5062155,243
    Thompson NDPNDP2,88768.28%1,67339.57%PCLib36.10%2,8871,2141274,228
    Transcona NDPNDP5,23558.50%2,06323.06%PCLib51.40%5,2353,1725418,948
    Turtle Mountain PCPC4,80655.05%2,81332.22%NDPKey55.64%1,9934,8064251,5078,731
    Tuxedo PCPC3,96840.21%2682.72%NDPLib59.86%3,7003,9682,2019,869
    Tyndall Park LibLib4,03054.99%2,12228.96%NDPPC49.75%1,9081,3904,0307,328
    Union Station NDPNDP3,71470.78%2,79753.31%PCLib42.21%3,7149176165,247
    Waverley PCNDP4,06344.10%1151.25%PCLib53.97%4,0633,9481,0012019,213
    Wolseley NDPNDP6,58275.31%5,72165.46%PCLib53.77%6,5828615925531528,740
    1. Sorted as per results summary.
    2. Including rejected and declined ballots.
      = open seat
      = turnout is above provincial average
      = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
      = other incumbents renominated
      = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada

    Comparative analysis for ridings (2023 vs 2019)

    Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2019) [43] [44]
    Riding and winning partyTurnoutVote share [a 1] Swing [a 2]
     %Change (pp) %Change (pp)Change (pp)
     
    Agassiz PCHold53.35-2.70
     
    63.85-11.67
     
    -10.42
     
    Assiniboia NDPGain55.701.001
     
    50.0214.5514.55
     
    -9.25
     
    Borderland PCHold50.45-11.41
     
    72.666.576.57
     
    5.385.38
     
    Brandon East NDPGain46.991.301.3
     
    55.6419.3019.3
     
    -15.23
     
    Brandon West PCHold51.680.410.41
     
    48.75-9.64
     
    -16.73
     
    Burrows NDPHold44.64-1.43
     
    46.046.356.35
     
    5.005
     
    Concordia NDPHold44.03-4.43
     
    64.524.834.83
     
    4.254.25
     
    Dauphin NDPGain60.301.681.68
     
    52.069.679.67
     
    -6.12
     
    Dawson Trail PCHold56.86-0.98
     
    50.70-4.71
     
    9.089.08
     
    Elmwood NDPHold49.32-0.90
     
    62.2113.5313.53
     
    8.888.88
     
    Flin Flon NDPHold44.1710.2610.26
     
    76.2513.0613.06
     
    8.178.17
     
    Fort Garry NDPHold58.75-2.94
     
    58.8216.4716.47
     
    10.8410.84
     
    Fort Richmond NDPGain62.074.684.68
     
    54.4532.2432.24
     
    6.706.7
     
    Fort Rouge NDPHold58.04-0.73
     
    70.5719.3319.33
     
    10.9010.9
     
    Fort Whyte PCHold64.374.024.02
     
    47.87-9.32
     
    -3.26
     
    Interlake-Gimli PCHold65.04-0.52
     
    49.59-9.03
     
    -9.48
     
    Keewatinook NDPHold39.1417.2917.29
     
    59.28-7.80
     
    2.262.26
     
    Kildonan-River East NDPGain63.181.361.36
     
    49.2615.2315.23
     
    -11.75
     
    Kirkfield Park NDPGain63.762.512.51
     
    44.5518.8718.87
     
    -15.24
     
    La Vérendrye PCHold55.540.130.13
     
    61.02-11.77
     
    -9.06
     
    Lac du Bonnet PCHold60.77-0.46
     
    58.51-7.40
     
    -11.81
     
    Lagimodière NDPGain64.051.781.78
     
    46.2418.3718.37
     
    -12.41
     
    Lakeside PCHold60.981.761.76
     
    61.68-6.56
     
    -5.75
     
    McPhillips NDPGain54.61-2.03
     
    47.3010.1010.1
     
    -2.07
     
    Midland PCHold56.95-2.32
     
    69.38-5.63
     
    -6.34
     
    Morden-Winkler PCHold44.32-6.87
     
    73.47-7.39
     
    1.631.63
     
    Notre Dame NDPHold37.88-2.98
     
    75.5810.5810.58
     
    5.615.61
     
    Point Douglas NDPHold32.76-3.24
     
    73.3110.9610.96
     
    4.994.99
     
    Portage la Prairie PCHold46.77-1.87
     
    59.61-6.07
     
    -7.01
     
    Radisson NDPGain57.651.181.18
     
    52.3115.6115.61
     
    -10.17
     
    Red River North PCHold60.47-3.49
     
    60.352.382.38
     
    -6.20
     
    Riding Mountain PCHold57.421.691.69
     
    63.02-2.89
     
    -7.01
     
    Riel NDPGain65.702.462.46
     
    54.6519.2619.26
     
    -13.03
     
    River Heights NDPGain67.592.122.12
     
    44.2129.6329.63
     
    -3.17
     
    Roblin PCHold62.540.710.71
     
    49.72-5.47
     
    -14.02
     
    Rossmere NDPGain60.420.800.8
     
    50.7411.8911.89
     
    -8.21
     
    Seine River NDPGain63.641.521.52
     
    52.0826.0726.07
     
    -16.32
     
    Selkirk PCHold56.29-2.96
     
    52.490.650.65
     
    -5.72
     
    Southdale NDPGain64.723.063.06
     
    48.4810.6410.64
     
    -9.45
     
    Springfield-Ritchot PCHold58.30-2.27
     
    54.89-4.59
     
    -10.16
     
    Spruce Woods PCHold56.54-0.21
     
    61.81-6.26
     
    -7.19
     
    St. Boniface NDPGain60.060.280.28
     
    53.3823.5123.51
     
    -16.29
     
    St. James NDPHold54.68-1.11
     
    64.8217.5617.56
     
    11.3611.36
     
    St. Johns NDPHold46.98-0.36
     
    60.768.888.88
     
    8.838.83
     
    St. Vital NDPHold56.88-3.89
     
    61.1516.6716.67
     
    11.1211.12
     
    Steinbach PCHold48.14-4.35
     
    74.37-7.26
     
    -7.34
     
    Swan River PCHold57.903.033.03
     
    62.91-5.95
     
    -5.98
     
    The Maples NDPHold50.62-2.46
     
    56.1316.6216.62
     
    12.6112.61
     
    The Pas-Kameesak NDPHold53.5210.4810.48
     
    67.189.279.27
     
    2.442.44
     
    Thompson NDPHold36.10-1.17
     
    68.2813.7313.73
     
    10.3510.35
     
    Transcona NDPHold51.40-1.05
     
    58.5012.0912.09
     
    10.8810.88
     
    Turtle Mountain PCHold55.64-1.65
     
    55.05-12.43
     
    1.241.24
     
    Tuxedo PCHold59.861.961.96
     
    40.21-7.65
     
    -3.19
     
    Tyndall Park LibHold49.75-6.64
     
    54.990.320.32
     
    2.422.42
     
    Union Station NDPHold42.21-1.85
     
    70.7818.1618.16
     
    12.5812.58
     
    Waverley NDPGain53.972.022.02
     
    44.1015.5015.5
     
    -11.35
     
    Wolseley NDPHold53.77-3.19
     
    75.3129.2829.28
     
    29.4729.47
     
    1. Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2018.
    2. Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2018; negative points to 2018's second-place party being swung to.

    Results by riding

    RidingOutgoing MLAElected MLA
    Agassiz   Eileen Clarke   Jodie Byram
    Assiniboia   Scott Johnston   Nellie Kennedy
    Borderland   Josh Guenter  Josh Guenter
    Brandon East   Len Isleifson   Glen Simard
    Brandon West   Reg Helwer   Wayne Balcaen
    Burrows   Diljeet Brar  Diljeet Brar
    Concordia   Matt Wiebe  Matt Wiebe
    Dauphin   Brad Michaleski   Ron Kostyshyn
    Dawson Trail   Bob Lagassé  Bob Lagassé
    Elmwood   Jim Maloway  Jim Maloway
    Flin Flon   Tom Lindsey  Tom Lindsey
    Fort Garry   Mark Wasyliw  Mark Wasyliw
    Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard   Jennifer Chen
    Fort Rouge   Wab Kinew  Wab Kinew
    Fort Whyte   Obby Khan  Obby Khan
    Interlake-Gimli   Derek Johnson  Derek Johnson
    Keewatinook   Ian Bushie  Ian Bushie
    Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox   Rachelle Schott
    Kirkfield Park   Kevin Klein   Logan Oxenham
    La Verendrye   Dennis Smook   Konrad Narth
    Lac du Bonnet   Wayne Ewasko  Wayne Ewasko
    Lagimodière   Andrew Smith   Tyler Blashko
    Lakeside   Ralph Eichler   Trevor King
    McPhillips   Shannon Martin   Jasdeep Devgan
    Midland   Blaine Pedersen   Lauren Stone
    Morden-Winkler   Cameron Friesen   Carrie Hiebert
    Notre Dame   Malaya Marcelino  Malaya Marcelino
    Point Douglas   Bernadette Smith  Bernadette Smith
    Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart   Jeff Bereza
    Radisson   James Teitsma   Jelynn Dela Cruz
    Red River North   Jeff Wharton  Jeff Wharton
    Riding Mountain   Greg Nesbitt  Greg Nesbitt
    Riel   Rochelle Squires   Mike Moyes
    River Heights   Jon Gerrard   Mike Moroz
    Roblin   Myrna Driedger   Kathleen Cook
    Rossmere   Andrew Micklefield   Tracy Schmidt
    Seine River   Janice Morley-Lecomte   Billie Cross
    Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere   Richard Perchotte
    Southdale   Audrey Gordon   Renée Cable
    Springfield-Ritchot   Ron Schuler  Ron Schuler
    Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen   Grant Jackson
    St. Boniface   Dougald Lamont   Robert Loiselle
    St. James   Adrien Sala  Adrien Sala
    St. Johns   Nahanni Fontaine  Nahanni Fontaine
    St. Vital   Jamie Moses  Jamie Moses
    Steinbach   Kelvin Goertzen  Kelvin Goertzen
    Swan River   Rick Wowchuk  Rick Wowchuk
    The Maples   Mintu Sandhu  Mintu Sandhu
    The Pas-Kameesak   Amanda Lathlin  Amanda Lathlin
    Thompson   Eric Redhead  Eric Redhead
    Transcona   Nello Altomare  Nello Altomare
    Turtle Mountain   Doyle Piwniuk  Doyle Piwniuk
    Tuxedo   Heather Stefanson  Heather Stefanson
    Tyndall Park   Cindy Lamoureux  Cindy Lamoureux
    Union Station   Uzoma Asagwara  Uzoma Asagwara
    Waverley   Jon Reyes   David Pankratz
    Wolseley   Lisa Naylor  Lisa Naylor

    Analysis

    Party candidates in 2nd place
    Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
    NDPPCLibInd
    New Democratic 303134
    Progressive Conservative 21122
    Liberal 11
    Total22304157
      Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
      Parties1st2nd3rd4th5th
        New Democratic 34221
        Progressive Conservative 22305
        Liberal 14386
        Independent 12
        Keystone 5
        Green 49
        Communist 23
      Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
      SourceParty
      NDPPCLibTotal
      Seats retainedIncumbents returned1812131
      Open seats held1010
      Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated1212
      Open seats gained44
      Total3422157

      Aftermath

      Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly. [45] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

      Seats changing hands

      Defeated MLAs

      ConstituencyPartyNameYear electedSeat held by party sinceDefeated byParty
      St. Boniface   Liberal Dougald Lamont 2018 b.e2018 b.e Robert Loiselle   New Democratic
      River Heights   Liberal Jon Gerrard 1999 1999 Mike Moroz   New Democratic
      Southdale   Progressive Conservative Audrey Gordon 2019 2016 Renée Cable   New Democratic
      Kirkfield Park   Progressive Conservative Kevin Klein 2022 2016 Logan Oxenham   New Democratic
      Radisson   Progressive Conservative James Teitsma 2016 2016 Jelynn Dela Cruz   New Democratic
      Seine River   Progressive Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte 2016 2016 Billie Cross   New Democratic
      Waverley   Progressive Conservative Jon Reyes 2016 2019 (District Created) David Pankratz   New Democratic
      Brandon East   Progressive Conservative Len Isleifson 2016 2016 Glen Simard   New Democratic
      Riel   Progressive Conservative Rochelle Squires 2016 2016 Mike Moyes   New Democratic
      Lagimodière   Progressive Conservative Andrew Smith 2016 2019 (District Created) Tyler Blashko   New Democratic
      Assiniboia   Progressive Conservative Scott Johnston 2016 2016 Nellie Kennedy   New Democratic
      Rossmere   Progressive Conservative Andrew Micklefield 2016 2016 Tracy Schmidt   New Democratic

      Open seats

      ConstituencyPartyCandidateIncumbent retiring from the legislatureWon byParty
      Fort Richmond   Progressive Conservative Paramjit Shahi Sarah Guillemard [26] Jennifer Chen   New Democratic
      Kildonan-River East   Progressive Conservative Alana Vannahme Cathy Cox [27] Rachelle Schott   New Democratic
      McPhillips   Progressive Conservative Sheilah Restall Shannon Martin Jasdeep Devgan   New Democratic
      Dauphin   Progressive Conservative Gord Wood Brad Michaleski Ron Kostyshyn   New Democratic

      Opinion polls

      Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions. Opinion polling for the 2023 Manitoba general election.svg
      Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
      Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
      Polling firmDates conductedSource PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
      Forum ResearchOct 2, 2023 [p 1] 41.3%44.7%12.3%0.9%0.8%3.3%910IVR3.4%
      Research Co.Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 [p 2] 39%48%10%2%1%4%600Online9%
      Mainstreet ResearchSep 28–Oct 1, 2023 [p 3] 41%47%10%1%1%3.7%698Smart IVR6%
      Sovereign North StrategiesSep 17–19, 2023 [p 4] 42.5%39.4%15.9%2.2%N/A3.9%852Telephone3.1%
      Angus ReidSep 13–19, 2023 [p 5] 41%47%9%2%1%4%990Online6%
      Probe ResearchSep 7–18, 2023 [p 6] 38%49%9%2%2%3.1%1,000Online11%
      Research Co.Sep 15–17, 2023 [p 7] 39%41%14%3%2%4%600Online2%
      Counsel Public AffairsSep 11–16, 2023 [p 8] 39%44%13%2%2%4%505Online5%
      Mainstreet ResearchAug 28Sep 2, 2023 [p 9] 43%42%9%3%3%4%601Smart IVR1%
      Mainstreet ResearchJul 26–28, 2023 [p 10] 42%38%12%3%4%4%597Smart IVR4%
      Probe ResearchMay 31Jun 13, 2023 [p 11] 41%41%10%5%3%3.1%1,000OnlineTie
      Angus ReidMay 30Jun 3, 2023 [p 12] 39%44%10%4%4%4%515Online5%
      March 26, 2023 Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
      Probe ResearchMar 8–20, 2023 [p 13] 38%44%9%4%4%3.1%1,000Online6%
      Mainstreet ResearchJan 24–26, 2023 [p 14] 36.2%41.5%14.6%5.1%2.1%4.3%514Smart IVR5.3%
      Probe ResearchNov 22Dec 5, 2022 [p 15] 35%46%13%3%2%3.1%1,000Telephone/Online11%
      Probe ResearchSep 8–18, 2022 [p 16] 37%44%15%3%1%3.1%1,000Telephone7%
      Angus ReidJun 7–13, 2022 [p 17] 38%40%13%3%6%5%468Online2%
      Probe ResearchJun 1–12, 2022 [p 18] 35%45%13%3%4%3.1%1,000Telephone10%
      Probe ResearchMar 9–21, 2022 [p 19] 34%44%15%2%5%3.1%1,000Telephone10%
      Angus ReidMar 10–15, 2022 [p 20] [p 21] 39%40%14%3%5%4%475Online1%
      Angus ReidJan 7–12, 2022 [p 22] 36%42%12%3%6%5%407Online6%
      Probe ResearchNov 23Dec 5, 2021 [p 23] 37%42%12%4%5%3.1%1,000Telephone5%
      October 30, 2021 Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
      Innovative ResearchSep 24Oct 5, 2021 [p 24] 41%32%18%5%3%N/A678Online9%
      Angus ReidSep 29Oct 3, 2021 [p 25] 38%43%11%4%5%N/A435Online5%
      Probe ResearchSep 7–20, 2021 [p 26] 35%42%12%3%8%3.1%1,000Telephone7%
      Probe ResearchJun 2–11, 2021 [p 27] 29%47%14%5%5%3.1%1,000Telephone18%
      Angus ReidJun 2–7, 2021 [p 28] 39%42%11%4%4%4.0%504Online3%
      Probe ResearchMar 10–26, 2021 [p 29] 36%42%11%7%4%3.1%1,000Telephone6%
      Probe ResearchNov 24Dec 4, 2020 [p 30] 37%41%14%6%3%3.1%1,000Telephone4%
      Angus ReidNov 24–30, 2020 [p 31] 39%40%12%5%4%4.8%420Online1%
      Probe ResearchSep 8–17, 2020 [p 32] 43%34%16%5%3%3.1%1,000Telephone9%
      EKOSJul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 [p 33] 44%31%12%9%4%2.9%1,154HD-IVR13%
      EKOSJun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 [p 34] 43%27%18%7%5%2.4%1,691HD-IVR16%
      Probe ResearchJun 2–11, 2020 [p 35] 38%36%18%7%2%3.1%1,000Telephone2%
      Innovative ResearchMay 29Jun 3, 2020 [p 36] 38%26%26%10%N/AN/A200Online12%
      Probe ResearchMar 10–24, 2020 [p 37] 43%33%14%8%2%3.1%1,000Telephone10%
      Probe ResearchNov 27Dec 10, 2019 [p 38] 42%36%13%8%2%3.1%1,000Telephone6%
      2019 general election September 10, 201947.1%31.4%14.5%6.4%0.6%15.7%
      Polling firmDates conductedSource Others Margin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
      PC NDP Liberal Green

      See also

      References

      1. Elections Act , CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
      2. CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
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