2023 Manitoba general election

Last updated

2023 Manitoba general election
Flag of Manitoba.svg
←  2019 October 3, 2023 44th  →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Turnout55.29% Increase2.svg
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Ambassador David L. Cohen Meet with Wab Kinew F8VGCCiagAA9BS4 (cropped).jpg
Heather Stefanson Consulate Winnipeg Independence Day Celebration 2022 (cropped).jpg
Dougald Lamont, Manitoba Liberal Leader.jpg
Leader Wab Kinew Heather Stefanson Dougald Lamont
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 October 30, 2021 October 21, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Tuxedo St. Boniface (lost re-election)
Last election18 seats, 31.38%36 seats, 47.07%3 seats, 14.48%
Seats before18353
Seats won34221
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 16Decrease2.svg 13Decrease2.svg 2
Popular vote221,695203,35051,634
Percentage45.63%41.86%10.63%
SwingIncrease2.svg 14.25pp Decrease2.svg 5.21pp Decrease2.svg 3.85pp
Manitoba Provincial Election 2023 - Results by Riding.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed on the bottom.
Premier before election

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Wab Kinew
New Democratic

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

Contents

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. [1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date. [2] The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure. [3] [4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, and parental rights in education. [5] [6] Kinew led the NDP into the election. [7] The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget. [8] [9] Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg. [10] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services. [10] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes. [11] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60. [12] They also promised a new debt relief system if elected. [13] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting. [14]

During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of the murdered Indigenous women Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search. [5] [15] Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign. [16]

Other campaign issues included crime, [17] agriculture [18] and affordable housing. [19]

Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP. [20] In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million. [21]

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)
CandidatesNDPPCLibGrnKPCommIndTotal
2448
334343031102
4161616742364
53333315
Total57574913553189

Timeline

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Legislature summary

[22]

Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
Party [23] LeaderCandidatesSeatsPopular vote
2019 DissolutionElected%+/–Votes%Change
(pp)
New Democratic Wab Kinew 5718183459.65+16221,69545.63+14.25
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 5736352238.60–14203,35041.86−5.21
Liberal Dougald Lamont 493311.75–251,63410.63−3.85
  Keystone Kevin Friesen5––––−3,7270.77New
Green Janine Gibson13––––−3,5840.74−5.63
Communist Andrew Taylor5––––−4610.09+0.04
 Independents3––––−1,3830.28+0.10
 Vacant1
Valid votes485,83499.31
Blank and invalid votes3,3740.69
Total1895757–489,208100
Registered voters/turnout884,86455.29

    Incumbents not running for re-election

    Electoral districtIncumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nomineeNew MLA
    Agassiz   Eileen Clarke [24] Jodie Byram Jodie Byram
    Brandon West   Reg Helwer [25] Wayne Balcaen Wayne Balcaen
    Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard [26] Paramjit Shahi Jennifer Chen
    Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox [27] Alana Vannahme Rachelle Schott
    Lakeside   Ralph Eichler [28] Trevor King Trevor King
    La Verendrye   Dennis Smook [29] Konrad Narth Konrad Narth
    McPhillips   Shannon Martin [30] Sheilah Restall Jasdeep Devgan
    Midland   Blaine Pedersen [31] Lauren Stone Lauren Stone
    Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart [32] Jeff Bereza Jeff Bereza
    Roblin   Myrna Driedger [33] Kathleen Cook Kathleen Cook
    Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen [34] Grant Jackson Grant Jackson
    Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere [35] Richard Perchotte  Richard Perchotte

    Candidates

    The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively. [36] [37] [38]

    Marginal seats

    Previous marginal seats

    Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

    Seat2019 held2023 winner
    PartyMarginPartyMargin
    McPhillips  PC1.00% NDP3.02%
    Transcona  NDP1.29% NDP23.06%
    Southdale  PC4.56% NDP14.32%
    Rossmere  PC8.06% NDP8.29%
    Dauphin  PC8.13% NDP3.28%
    Assiniboia  PC8.79% NDP9.69%
    Riel  PC9.36% NDP16.61%
    St. Vital  NDP9.58% NDP30.79%
    The Maples  NDP9.75% NDP32.33%
    Wolseley  NDP9.98% NDP65.42%

    New marginal seats

    Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.

    Seat2019 held2023 Winner
    PartyMarginPartyMargin
    Lagimodière  PC23.91% NDP0.84%
    Brandon West  PC24.59% PC1.22%
    Waverley  PC21.45% NDP1.30%
    Tuxedo  PC24.57% PC2.65%
    McPhillips  PC1.00% NDP3.02%
    Dauphin  PC8.13% NDP3.28%
    Selkirk  PC16.42% PC4.98%
    River Heights  Lib29.09% NDP5.58%
    Kirkfield Park  PC24.68% NDP5.94%
    Interlake-Gimli  PC25.55% PC6.59%
    Kildonan-River East  PC17.06% NDP6.71%
    Rossmere  PC8.06% NDP8.29%
    Dawson Trail  PC32.54% PC8.90%
    Roblin  PC37.19% PC9.15%
    Assiniboia  PC8.79% NDP9.69%

    Results

    Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election. [39] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital. [40] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings. [41] Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points. [42]

    Results overview

    Popular vote
    NDP
     
    		45.63%
    PC
     
    		41.86%
    Liberal
     
    		10.63%
    Others
     
    		1.88%
    Seats
    NDP
     
    		59.65%
    PC
     
    		38.60%
    Liberal
     
    		1.75%

    Synopsis of results by riding

    2023 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results [43]
    Riding [a 1] 2019 Winning partyTurnout
    [a 2]     		Votes
    PartyShareMargin Comm Grn Ind KP Lib NDP PC RejectedDeclined
     
    Agassiz  PC PC63.85%2,96653.35%694311155345191836
    Assiniboia  PC NDP50.02%91655.70%913472238061528
    Borderland  PC PC72.66%3,55850.45%7649214479418
    Brandon East  PC NDP55.64%1,06746.99%30537582691629
    Brandon West  PC PC48.75%8951.68%284372538141039
    Burrows  NDP NDP46.04%95844.64%207430321479632
    Concordia  NDP NDP64.52%2,38744.03%481423518481236
    Dauphin  PC NDP52.06%38660.30%488745014563
    Dawson Trail  PC PC50.70%54356.86%416404945921257
    Elmwood  NDP NDP62.21%2,74549.32%52304452493321881656
    Flin Flon  NDP NDP76.25%2,03244.17%29519191219
    Fort Garry  NDP NDP58.82%2,91458.75%2371082531924051435
    Fort Richmond  PC NDP54.45%1,57662.07%848445528791234
    Fort Rouge  NDP NDP70.57%5,19558.04%102115267611566633
    Fort Whyte  PC PC47.87%1,22964.37%4213171454421233
    Interlake-Gimli  PC PC49.59%68365.04%393374446051431366
    Keewatinook  NDP NDP59.28%76239.14%192182010582034
    Kildonan-River East  PC NDP49.26%72963.18%89655744845953
    Kirkfield Park  PC NDP44.55%66163.76%2051696506744061329
    La Verendrye  PC PC61.02%3,03255.54%73664015544586535
    Lac du Bonnet  PC PC58.51%2,22360.77%57334475670580
    Lagimodière  PC NDP46.24%11264.05%104157115599945
    Lakeside  PC PC61.68%3,40660.98%1101268260881159
    McPhillips  PC NDP47.30%32554.61%886490545802370
    Midland  PC PC69.38%4,21656.95%737201162272550
    Morden-Winkler  PC PC73.47%3,53544.32%25416005135641
    Notre Dame  NDP NDP75.58%3,10037.88%821053193832732813
    Point Douglas  NDP NDP73.31%2,62532.76%4843367742619
    Portage la Prairie  PC PC59.61%1,89846.77%367301191838162135
    Radisson  PC NDP52.31%1,14757.65%621595448071539
    Red River North  PC PC60.35%2,03360.47%3893592643100
    Riding Mountain  PC PC63.02%2,74957.42%417289556442254
    Riel  PC NDP54.65%1,88265.70%834616042782662
    River Heights  Lib NDP44.21%64367.59%158440450471807834
    Roblin  PC PC49.72%1,12062.54%1189496860881263
    Rossmere  PC NDP50.74%80160.42%181478486340622749
    Seine River  PC NDP52.08%1,40763.64%13184653813974730
    Selkirk  PC PC52.49%47056.29%4493496339141
    Southdale  PC NDP48.48%1,64764.72%135186155693922733
    Springfield-Ritchot  PC PC54.89%1,92558.30%900382757521452
    Spruce Woods  PC PC61.81%3,05056.54%1145193649862241
    St. Boniface  Lib NDP53.38%2,17260.06%73341355851391952
    St. James  NDP NDP64.82%3,12254.68%631544823261424
    St. Johns  NDP NDP60.76%3,16146.98%111753542621101726
    St. Vital  NDP NDP61.15%2,75156.88%823528825371335
    Steinbach  PC PC74.37%4,64748.14%8011221586811876
    Swan River  PC PC62.91%2,36857.90%397243348017126
    The Maples  NDP NDP56.13%2,32550.62%147239051580446
    The Pas-Kameesak  NDP NDP67.18%2,01653.52%21535221506812
    Thompson  NDP NDP68.28%1,67336.10%12728871214811
    Transcona  NDP NDP58.50%2,06351.40%541523531721036
    Turtle Mountain  PC PC55.05%2,81355.64%1507425199348062135
    Tuxedo  PC PC40.21%26859.86%220137003968535
    Tyndall Park  Lib Lib54.99%2,12249.75%403019081390229
    Union Station  NDP NDP70.78%2,79742.21%61637149172334
    Waverley  PC NDP44.10%11553.97%201100140633948418
    Wolseley  NDP NDP75.31%5,72153.77%15255359265828611322
    1. ↑ Sorted as per results summary.
    2. ↑ Including rejected and declined ballots.
      = open seat
      = turnout is above provincial average
      = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
      = other incumbents renominated

    Results by riding

    RidingOutgoing MLAElected MLA
    Agassiz   Eileen Clarke   Jodie Byram
    Assiniboia   Scott Johnston   Nellie Kennedy
    Borderland   Josh Guenter  Josh Guenter
    Brandon East   Len Isleifson   Glen Simard
    Brandon West   Reg Helwer   Wayne Balcaen
    Burrows   Diljeet Brar  Diljeet Brar
    Concordia   Matt Wiebe  Matt Wiebe
    Dauphin   Brad Michaleski   Ron Kostyshyn
    Dawson Trail   Bob Lagassé  Bob Lagassé
    Elmwood   Jim Maloway  Jim Maloway
    Flin Flon   Tom Lindsey  Tom Lindsey
    Fort Garry   Mark Wasyliw  Mark Wasyliw
    Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard   Jennifer Chen
    Fort Rouge   Wab Kinew  Wab Kinew
    Fort Whyte   Obby Khan  Obby Khan
    Interlake-Gimli   Derek Johnson  Derek Johnson
    Keewatinook   Ian Bushie  Ian Bushie
    Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox   Rachelle Schott
    Kirkfield Park   Kevin Klein   Logan Oxenham
    La Verendrye   Dennis Smook   Konrad Narth
    Lac du Bonnet   Wayne Ewasko  Wayne Ewasko
    Lagimodière   Andrew Smith   Tyler Blashko
    Lakeside   Ralph Eichler   Trevor King
    McPhillips   Shannon Martin   Jasdeep Devgan
    Midland   Blaine Pedersen   Lauren Stone
    Morden-Winkler   Cameron Friesen   Carrie Hiebert
    Notre Dame   Malaya Marcelino  Malaya Marcelino
    Point Douglas   Bernadette Smith  Bernadette Smith
    Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart   Jeff Bereza
    Radisson   James Teitsma   Jelynn Dela Cruz
    Red River North   Jeff Wharton  Jeff Wharton
    Riding Mountain   Greg Nesbitt  Greg Nesbitt
    Riel   Rochelle Squires   Mike Moyes
    River Heights   Jon Gerrard   Mike Moroz
    Roblin   Myrna Driedger   Kathleen Cook
    Rossmere   Andrew Micklefield   Tracy Schmidt
    Seine River   Janice Morley-Lecomte   Billie Cross
    Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere   Richard Perchotte
    Southdale   Audrey Gordon   Renée Cable
    Springfield-Ritchot   Ron Schuler  Ron Schuler
    Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen   Grant Jackson
    St. Boniface   Dougald Lamont   Robert Loiselle
    St. James   Adrien Sala  Adrien Sala
    St. Johns   Nahanni Fontaine  Nahanni Fontaine
    St. Vital   Jamie Moses  Jamie Moses
    Steinbach   Kelvin Goertzen  Kelvin Goertzen
    Swan River   Rick Wowchuk  Rick Wowchuk
    The Maples   Mintu Sandhu  Mintu Sandhu
    The Pas-Kameesak   Amanda Lathlin  Amanda Lathlin
    Thompson   Eric Redhead  Eric Redhead
    Transcona   Nello Altomare  Nello Altomare
    Turtle Mountain   Doyle Piwniuk  Doyle Piwniuk
    Tuxedo   Heather Stefanson  Heather Stefanson
    Tyndall Park   Cindy Lamoureux  Cindy Lamoureux
    Union Station   Uzoma Asagwara  Uzoma Asagwara
    Waverley   Jon Reyes   David Pankratz
    Wolseley   Lisa Naylor  Lisa Naylor

    Analysis

    Party candidates in 2nd place
    Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
    NDPPCLibInd
    New Democratic 303134
    Progressive Conservative 21122
    Liberal 11
    Total22304157
      Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
      Parties1st2nd3rd4th5th
      █  New Democratic 34221
      █  Progressive Conservative 22305
      █  Liberal 14386
      █  Independent 12
      █  Keystone 5
      █  Green 49
      █  Communist 23
      Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
      SourceParty
      NDPPCLibTotal
      Seats retainedIncumbents returned1812131
      Open seats held1010
      Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated1212
      Open seats gained44
      Total3422157

      Aftermath

      Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly. [44] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

      Seats changing hands

      Defeated MLAs

      ConstituencyPartyNameYear electedSeat held by party sinceDefeated byParty
      St. Boniface █  Liberal Dougald Lamont 2018 b.e2018 b.e Robert Loiselle █  New Democratic
      River Heights █  Liberal Jon Gerrard 1999 1999 Mike Moroz █  New Democratic
      Southdale █  Progressive Conservative Audrey Gordon 2019 2016 Renée Cable █  New Democratic
      Kirkfield Park █  Progressive Conservative Kevin Klein 2022 2016 Logan Oxenham █  New Democratic
      Radisson █  Progressive Conservative James Teitsma 2016 2016 Jelynn Dela Cruz █  New Democratic
      Seine River █  Progressive Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte 2016 2016 Billie Cross █  New Democratic
      Waverley █  Progressive Conservative Jon Reyes 2016 2019 (District Created) David Pankratz █  New Democratic
      Brandon East █  Progressive Conservative Len Isleifson 2016 2016 Glen Simard █  New Democratic
      Riel █  Progressive Conservative Rochelle Squires 2016 2016 Mike Moyes █  New Democratic
      Lagimodière █  Progressive Conservative Andrew Smith 2016 2019 (District Created) Tyler Blashko █  New Democratic
      Assiniboia █  Progressive Conservative Scott Johnston 2016 2016 Nellie Kennedy █  New Democratic
      Rossmere █  Progressive Conservative Andrew Micklefield 2016 2016 Tracy Schmidt █  New Democratic

      Open seats

      ConstituencyPartyCandidateIncumbent retiring from the legislatureWon byParty
      Fort Richmond █  Progressive Conservative Paramjit Shahi Sarah Guillemard [26] Jennifer Chen █  New Democratic
      Kildonan-River East █  Progressive Conservative Alana Vannahme Cathy Cox [27] Rachelle Schott █  New Democratic
      McPhillips █  Progressive Conservative Sheilah Restall Shannon Martin Jasdeep Devgan █  New Democratic
      Dauphin █  Progressive Conservative Gord Wood Brad Michaleski Ron Kostyshyn █  New Democratic

      Opinion polls

      Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions. Opinion polling for the 2023 Manitoba general election.svg
      Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
      Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
      Polling firmDates conductedSource PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
      Forum ResearchOct 2, 2023 [p 1] 41.3%44.7%12.3%0.9%0.8%3.3%910IVR3.4%
      Research Co.Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 [p 2] 39%48%10%2%1%4%600Online9%
      Mainstreet ResearchSep 28–Oct 1, 2023 [p 3] 41%47%10%1%1%3.7%698Smart IVR6%
      Sovereign North StrategiesSep 17–19, 2023 [p 4] 42.5%39.4%15.9%2.2%N/A3.9%852Telephone3.1%
      Angus ReidSep 13–19, 2023 [p 5] 41%47%9%2%1%4%990Online6%
      Probe ResearchSep 7–18, 2023 [p 6] 38%49%9%2%2%3.1%1,000Online11%
      Research Co.Sep 15–17, 2023 [p 7] 39%41%14%3%2%4%600Online2%
      Counsel Public AffairsSep 11–16, 2023 [p 8] 39%44%13%2%2%4%505Online5%
      Mainstreet ResearchAug 28 – Sep 2, 2023 [p 9] 43%42%9%3%3%4%601Smart IVR1%
      Mainstreet ResearchJul 26–28, 2023 [p 10] 42%38%12%3%4%4%597Smart IVR4%
      Probe ResearchMay 31 – Jun 13, 2023 [p 11] 41%41%10%5%3%3.1%1,000OnlineTie
      Angus ReidMay 30 – Jun 3, 2023 [p 12] 39%44%10%4%4%4%515Online5%
      March 26, 2023 Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
      Probe ResearchMar 8–20, 2023 [p 13] 38%44%9%4%4%3.1%1,000Online6%
      Mainstreet ResearchJan 24–26, 2023 [p 14] 36.2%41.5%14.6%5.1%2.1%4.3%514Smart IVR5.3%
      Probe ResearchNov 22 – Dec 5, 2022 [p 15] 35%46%13%3%2%3.1%1,000Telephone/Online11%
      Probe ResearchSep 8–18, 2022 [p 16] 37%44%15%3%1%3.1%1,000Telephone7%
      Angus ReidJun 7–13, 2022 [p 17] 38%40%13%3%6%5%468Online2%
      Probe ResearchJun 1–12, 2022 [p 18] 35%45%13%3%4%3.1%1,000Telephone10%
      Probe ResearchMar 9–21, 2022 [p 19] 34%44%15%2%5%3.1%1,000Telephone10%
      Angus ReidMar 10–15, 2022 [p 20] [p 21] 39%40%14%3%5%4%475Online1%
      Angus ReidJan 7–12, 2022 [p 22] 36%42%12%3%6%5%407Online6%
      Probe ResearchNov 23 – Dec 5, 2021 [p 23] 37%42%12%4%5%3.1%1,000Telephone5%
      October 30, 2021 Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
      Innovative ResearchSep 24 – Oct 5, 2021 [p 24] 41%32%18%5%3%N/A678Online9%
      Angus ReidSep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 [p 25] 38%43%11%4%5%N/A435Online5%
      Probe ResearchSep 7–20, 2021 [p 26] 35%42%12%3%8%3.1%1,000Telephone7%
      Probe ResearchJun 2–11, 2021 [p 27] 29%47%14%5%5%3.1%1,000Telephone18%
      Angus ReidJun 2–7, 2021 [p 28] 39%42%11%4%4%4.0%504Online3%
      Probe ResearchMar 10–26, 2021 [p 29] 36%42%11%7%4%3.1%1,000Telephone6%
      Probe ResearchNov 24 – Dec 4, 2020 [p 30] 37%41%14%6%3%3.1%1,000Telephone4%
      Angus ReidNov 24–30, 2020 [p 31] 39%40%12%5%4%4.8%420Online1%
      Probe ResearchSep 8–17, 2020 [p 32] 43%34%16%5%3%3.1%1,000Telephone9%
      EKOSJul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 [p 33] 44%31%12%9%4%2.9%1,154HD-IVR13%
      EKOSJun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 [p 34] 43%27%18%7%5%2.4%1,691HD-IVR16%
      Probe ResearchJun 2–11, 2020 [p 35] 38%36%18%7%2%3.1%1,000Telephone2%
      Innovative ResearchMay 29 – Jun 3, 2020 [p 36] 38%26%26%10%N/AN/A200Online12%
      Probe ResearchMar 10–24, 2020 [p 37] 43%33%14%8%2%3.1%1,000Telephone10%
      Probe ResearchNov 27 – Dec 10, 2019 [p 38] 42%36%13%8%2%3.1%1,000Telephone6%
      2019 general election September 10, 2019—47.1%31.4%14.5%6.4%0.6%———15.7%
      Polling firmDates conductedSource Others Margin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
      PC NDP Liberal Green

      See also

      Notes

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        References

        1. ↑ Elections Act , CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
        2. ↑ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
        3. ↑ Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News . Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
        4. ↑ Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News . Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
        5. 1 2 "PCs make opposition to landfill search a central facet of campaign as Manitoba election day nears". CBC News. Retrieved June 28, 2024.
        6. ↑ "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        7. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
        8. ↑ "NDP's Kinew promises to boost health care, balance the budget". October 16, 2022. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
        9. ↑ "Economy, health care continue to draw focus of Manitoba election campaign". Winnipeg. September 14, 2023. Archived from the original on September 26, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        10. 1 2 "Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on September 25, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        11. ↑ "Manitoba New Democrats promise to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        12. ↑ "Manitoba Liberals urge voters to choose a different option this election – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        13. ↑ "Manitoba Liberals promise new debt relief tools if elected". CBC News . September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        14. ↑ "Manitoba Chamber wants you to vote for prosperity". The Graphic Leader. September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        15. ↑ Thompson, Sam (October 4, 2023). "Manitoba NDP will stick to landfill promise, MLA says". Global News Winnipeg. Corus Entertainment. Global News. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
        16. ↑ Kives, Bartley (October 2, 2023). "Weaponized by PCs, sidelined by NDP: Indigenous concerns largely absent from Manitoba election". CBC News . Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        17. ↑ Gowriluk, Caitlyn (September 22, 2023). "Fact-checking Wab Kinew's promises on crime during Manitoba party leaders' debate". CBC News . Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        18. ↑ "Candidates encouraged to recognize the importance of Manitoba's pork industry". PortageOnline. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        19. ↑ "New poll sheds light on Manitoba housing issues – REMI Network". REMINET. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        20. ↑ "Winners of recent Manitoba elections have seen sizable majority governments – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        21. ↑ Hobson, Brittany; Modified, The Canadian Press Posted: Last (September 29, 2023). "Manitoba reports $270M surplus days ahead of vote". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        22. ↑ Official Results
        23. ↑ "Political Parties". Elections Manitoba. Archived from the original on August 15, 2023. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
        24. ↑ Clarke, Eileen (August 21, 2022). "I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election". Facebook. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
        25. ↑ Darren Bernhardt, Ian Froese, "Add Reg Helwer to growing list of Manitoba Tory MLAs bowing out of provincial politics" Archived January 6, 2023, at the Wayback Machine . CBC News, January 6, 2023.
        26. 1 2 "Manitoba cabinet minister Sarah Guillemard won't run for re-election for health reasons". CBC Manitoba . The Canadian Press. June 13, 2023. Archived from the original on June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
        27. 1 2 Darren Bernhardt (January 5, 2023). "Cathy Cox becomes the latest Tory MLA to decide against re-election bid". CBC Manitoba . Archived from the original on January 5, 2023. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
        28. ↑ The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won't seek re-election" Archived October 4, 2022, at the Wayback Machine . Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
        29. ↑ Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature" Archived October 19, 2022, at the Wayback Machine . Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
        30. ↑ Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press (February 22, 2023). "Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election". Winnipeg Free Press . Archived from the original on February 23, 2023. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
        31. ↑ Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (July 15, 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved July 15, 2021– via Twitter.
        32. ↑ Michael Blume, "Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine . Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
        33. ↑ Ian Froese, "Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine . CBC News, January 4, 2023.
        34. ↑ Bartley Kives, "Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine . CBC News, December 29, 2022.
        35. ↑ Ian Froese, "Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine . CBC News, January 3, 2023.
        36. ↑ "Candidates". Elections Manitoba . Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
        37. ↑ "Our Team". Manitoba NDP. Archived from the original on May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
        38. ↑ Froese, Ian (April 11, 2023). "PCs, NDP place candidates in competitive Manitoba election races as polling gap narrows". CBC. Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 30, 2023.
        39. ↑ "Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023". electionsmanitoba.ca. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        40. ↑ "Manitoba Tory cabinet minister denounces right-wing pivot in election campaign". CKY-DT . The Canadian Press. October 4, 2023.
        41. ↑ Sarah Petz (October 3, 2023). "Health Minister Audrey Gordon among Winnipeg PC cabinet ministers losing seats to NDP". CBC News.
        42. ↑ "Statement of Official Results - Tuxedo" (PDF). Elections Manitoba. October 4, 2023.
        43. ↑ "Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023 (Unofficial Results)". Elections Manitoba . Retrieved October 5, 2023.
        44. ↑ "Dougald Lamont stepping down as Manitoba Liberal leader". Winnipeg. October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 4, 2023.

        Opinion poll sources

        1. ↑ "NDP Majority Government Likely" (PDF). Forum Research . October 2, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        2. ↑ "Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day". Research Co. October 2, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        3. ↑ Martin, Robert (October 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, October 2023 Public". Mainstreet Research. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
        4. ↑ "Voter Intention Survey for Manitoba & Winnipeg September 17–19,23". Sovereign North Strategies. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        5. ↑ "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". Angus Reid . September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        6. ↑ "With election day nearing, latest polling shows NDP surging ahead in Manitoba". CTV News. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
        7. ↑ "Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues". Research Co. September 18, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
        8. ↑ "Manitoba Public Opinion Report September 26, 2023" (PDF). Counsel Public Affairs. September 26, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
        9. ↑ Fric, Curtis (September 7, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, August 2023 Public". Archived from the original on September 7, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
        10. ↑ Fric, Curtis (August 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, July 2023 Public". Archived from the original on August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 3, 2023.
        11. ↑ "NDP, PCs Head Into Pre-Election Period In a Dead Heat (June 2023 Provincial Voting Intentions)". Probe Research. June 21, 2023. Archived from the original on June 22, 2023. Retrieved June 23, 2023.
        12. ↑ "Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election". Angus Reid Institute. June 13, 2023. Archived from the original on June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
        13. ↑ "Manitoba Provincial Party Support" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 28, 2023. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
        14. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey – Manitoba" (PDF). ipolitics.ca. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 1, 2023. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
        15. ↑ "NDP Lead Inches Slightly Higher (December 2022 Omnibus) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 12, 2022. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
        16. ↑ "Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead | CTV News". ctvnews.ca. September 25, 2022. Archived from the original on September 26, 2022. Retrieved September 27, 2022.
        17. ↑ "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2022. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
        18. ↑ "NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
        19. ↑ "Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
        20. ↑ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
        21. ↑ "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
        22. ↑ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
        23. ↑ "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 16, 2021. Retrieved December 16, 2021.
        24. ↑ "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2021. Retrieved October 11, 2021.
        25. ↑ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
        26. ↑ "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on October 2, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
        27. ↑ "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on June 18, 2021. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
        28. ↑ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. June 9, 2021. Archived from the original on June 13, 2021. Retrieved June 13, 2021.
        29. ↑ "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on March 31, 2021. Retrieved March 31, 2021.
        30. ↑ "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on January 17, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
        31. ↑ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, The CCP virus management". Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
        32. ↑ "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on January 27, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
        33. ↑ "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. September 2, 2020. Archived from the original on January 14, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
        34. ↑ "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
        35. ↑ "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
        36. ↑ "Manitoba Politics in the Time of The CCP virus: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
        37. ↑ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
        38. ↑ Robertson, Dylan (December 27, 2019). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on September 17, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
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