2023 Manitoba general election

2023 Manitoba general election

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57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority
Turnout	55.29%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Wab Kinew Heather Stefanson Dougald Lamont Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal Leader since September 16, 2017 October 30, 2021 October 21, 2017 Leader's seat Fort Rouge Tuxedo St. Boniface (lost re-election) Last election 18 seats, 31.38% 36 seats, 47.07% 3 seats, 14.48% Seats before 18 35 3 Seats won 34 22 1 Seat change 16 13 2 Popular vote 221,695 203,350 51,634 Percentage 45.63% 41.86% 10.63% Swing 14.25pp 5.21pp 3.85pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed on the bottom.
Premier before election Heather Stefanson Progressive Conservative Premier after election Wab Kinew New Democratic

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. ^[1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date. ^[2] The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure. ^{[3] [4]} During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, and parental rights in education. ^{[5] [6]} Kinew led the NDP into the election. ^[7] The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget. ^{[8] [9]} Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg. ^[10] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services. ^[10] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes. ^[11] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60. ^[12] They also promised a new debt relief system if elected. ^[13] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting. ^[14]

During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of the murdered Indigenous women Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search. ^{[5] [15]} Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign. ^[16]

Other campaign issues included crime, ^[17] agriculture ^[18] and affordable housing. ^[19]

Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP. ^[20] In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million. ^[21]

Incumbents not running for re-election

Electoral district	Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee			New MLA
Agassiz		Eileen Clarke [22]	Jodie Byram		Jodie Byram
Brandon West		Reg Helwer [23]	Wayne Balcaen		Wayne Balcaen
Fort Richmond		Sarah Guillemard [24]	Paramjit Shahi		Jennifer Chen
Kildonan-River East		Cathy Cox [25]	Alana Vannahme		Rachelle Schott
Lakeside		Ralph Eichler [26]	Trevor King		Trevor King
La Verendrye		Dennis Smook [27]	Konrad Narth		Konrad Narth
McPhillips		Shannon Martin [28]	Sheilah Restall		Jasdeep Devgan
Midland		Blaine Pedersen [29]	Lauren Stone		Lauren Stone
Portage la Prairie		Ian Wishart [30]	Jeff Bereza		Jeff Bereza
Roblin		Myrna Driedger [31]	Kathleen Cook		Kathleen Cook
Spruce Woods		Cliff Cullen [32]	Grant Jackson		Grant Jackson
Selkirk		Alan Lagimodiere [33]	Richard Perchotte		Richard Perchotte

Candidates

See also: List of candidates of the 2023 Manitoba general election

The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively. ^{[34] [35] [36]}

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)

Candidates	NDP	PC	Lib	Grn	KP	Comm	Ind	Total
2	4	4						8
3	34	34	30	3	1			102
4	16	16	16	7	4	2	3	64
5	3	3	3	3		3		15
Total	57	57	49	13	5	5	3	189

Timeline

2021

• July 15: Eileen Clarke resigns as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Relations but stays on as MLA for Agassiz.

• July 15 Blaine Pedersen resigns as Minister of Agriculture and Resource Development. He announces he will not seek re-election.

• August 10: Brian Pallister announces he will not seek re-election as the MLA for Fort Whyte and will resign as premier.

• September 1: Brian Pallister resigns as Premier and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but remains as the MLA for Fort Whyte.

• September 1: Kelvin Goertzen is chosen by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba to become its interim leader and the 23rd Premier of Manitoba. Rochelle Squires is appointed as the Deputy Premier.

• October 4: Brian Pallister resigns as the MLA for Fort Whyte, triggering a by-election.

• October 30: Heather Stefanson is elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.

• November 2: Kelvin Goertzen resigns as Premier of Manitoba.

• November 2: Heather Stefanson is sworn in as the 24th Premier of Manitoba and is the first woman to hold the position.

• December 9: Danielle Adams (Thompson) dies in office, triggering a by-election.

• December 30: Ron Schuler is removed from cabinet post as Minister of Infrastructure. Reg Helwer is appointed as acting Minister of Infrastructure.

2022

• January 18: Premier Heather Stefanson shuffles her cabinet.

• March 22: Obby Khan is elected in the Fort Whyte by-election, replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives hold the seat narrowly.

• June 6: Scott Fielding resigns as Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries and announces his intention to resign as MLA for Kirkfield Park.

• June 6: Alan Lagimodiere is named acting Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries.

• June 7: Eric Redhead is elected as the MLA for Thompson, holding the seat for the NDP.

• June 17: Scott Fielding resigns as MLA for Kirkfield Park.

• October 4: Ralph Eichler announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Lakeside.

• December 16: Ian Wishart announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Portage La Prairie.

2023

• January 15: Cathy Cox announces she Will not seek re-election as MLA for Kildonan River East.
• January 27: Cameron Friesen announces his resignation as finance minister and MLA to seek federal Conservative nomination for Portage—Lisgar.
• January 30: Cliff Cullen is appointed as finance minister and retains Deputy Premier role.
• June 13: Sarah Guillemard announces she will not seek re-election as MLA for Fort Richmond.

Results

Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election. ^[37] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital. ^[38] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings. ^[39] Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points. ^[40]

^[41]

Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature

Party [42]		Leader	Candidates	Seats					Popular vote
				2019	Dissolution	Elected	%	+/–	Votes	%	Change (pp)
	New Democratic	Wab Kinew	57	18	18	34	59.65	+16	221,695	45.63	+14.25
	Progressive Conservative	Heather Stefanson	57	36	35	22	38.60	–14	203,350	41.86	−5.21
	Liberal	Dougald Lamont	49	3	3	1	1.75	–2	51,634	10.63	−3.85
	Keystone	Kevin Friesen	5	–	–	–	–	−	3,727	0.77	New
	Green	Janine Gibson	13	–	–	–	–	−	3,584	0.74	−5.63
	Communist	Andrew Taylor	5	–	–	–	–	−	461	0.09	+0.04
	Independents		3	–	–	–	–	−	1,383	0.28	+0.10
	Vacant				1
Valid votes			189	57	57	57	–	–	485,834	100.00
Blank and invalid votes									3,374
Total votes									489,208
Registered voters/turnout									884,864	55.29

Vote and seat summaries

Ternary plots of election results

• 
  2019
• 
  2023

Electoral districts won identified by PC (blue), Liberal (red) and NDP (orange).

Popular vote NDP   45.63% PC   41.86% Liberal   10.63% Others   1.88%

Seats NDP   59.65% PC   38.60% Liberal   1.75%

Synopsis of results

2023 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results ^{[43] [44]}

Electoral division	Winning party												Votes
	2019		1st place		Votes	Share	Margin #	Margin %	2nd place		3rd place		NDP	PC	Lib	Green	Ind	KP	Comm	Total
Agassiz		PC		PC	4,519	63.85%	2,966	41.91%		NDP		KP	1,553	4,519	311	–	–	694	–	7,077
Assiniboia		PC		NDP	4,722	50.02%	916	9.70%		PC		Lib	4,722	3,806	913	–	–	–	–	9,441
Borderland		PC		PC	4,479	72.66%	3,558	57.72%		NDP		Lib	921	4,479	764	–	–	–	–	6,164
Brandon East		PC		NDP	3,758	55.64%	1,067	15.80%		PC		Lib	3,758	2,691	305	–	–	–	–	6,754
Brandon West		PC		PC	3,814	48.75%	89	1.14%		NDP		Green	3,725	3,814	–	284	–	–	–	7,823
Burrows		NDP		NDP	3,032	46.04%	958	14.55%		Lib		PC	3,032	1,479	2,074	–	–	–	–	6,585
Concordia		NDP		NDP	4,235	64.52%	2,387	36.37%		PC		Lib	4,235	1,848	481	–	–	–	–	6,564
Dauphin		PC		NDP	4,887	52.06%	386	4.11%		PC	N/A		4,887	4,501	–	–	–	–	–	9,388
Dawson Trail		PC		PC	4,592	50.70%	543	6.00%		NDP		Green	4,049	4,592	–	416	–	–	–	9,057
Elmwood		NDP		NDP	4,933	62.21%	2,745	34.62%		PC		Lib	4,933	2,188	452	304	–	–	52	7,929
Flin Flon		NDP		NDP	2,951	76.25%	2,032	52.51%		PC	N/A		2,951	919	–	–	–	–	–	3,870
Fort Garry		NDP		NDP	5,319	58.82%	2,914	32.22%		PC		Lib	5,319	2,405	1,082	237	–	–	–	9,043
Fort Richmond		PC		NDP	4,455	54.45%	1,576	19.26%		PC		Lib	4,455	2,879	848	–	–	–	–	8,182
Fort Rouge		NDP		NDP	6,761	70.57%	5,195	54.22%		PC		Lib	6,761	1,566	1,152	–	–	–	102	9,581
Fort Whyte		PC		PC	5,442	47.87%	1,229	10.81%		Lib		NDP	1,714	5,442	4,213	–	–	–	–	11,369
Interlake-Gimli		PC		PC	5,143	49.59%	683	6.59%		NDP		KP	4,460	5,143	374	–	–	393	–	10,370
Keewatinook		NDP		NDP	1,820	59.28%	762	24.82%		PC		Lib	1,820	1,058	192	–	–	–	–	3,070
Kildonan-River East		PC		NDP	5,574	49.26%	729	6.44%		PC		Lib	5,574	4,845	896	–	–	–	–	11,315
Kirkfield Park		PC		NDP	5,067	44.55%	661	5.81%		PC		Lib	5,067	4,406	1,696	205	–	–	–	11,374
La Vérendrye		PC		PC	4,586	61.02%	3,032	40.34%		NDP		KP	1,554	4,586	640	–	–	736	–	7,516
Lac du Bonnet		PC		PC	5,670	58.51%	2,223	22.94%		NDP		Green	3,447	5,670	–	573	–	–	–	9,690
Lagimodière		PC		NDP	5,711	46.24%	112	0.91%		PC		Lib	5,711	5,599	1,041	–	–	–	–	12,351
Lakeside		PC		PC	6,088	61.68%	3,406	34.51%		NDP		Lib	2,682	6,088	1,101	–	–	–	–	9,871
McPhillips		PC		NDP	4,905	47.30%	325	3.13%		PC		Lib	4,905	4,580	886	–	–	–	–	10,371
Midland		PC		PC	6,227	69.38%	4,216	46.97%		NDP		Lib	2,011	6,227	737	–	–	–	–	8,975
Morden-Winkler		PC		PC	5,135	73.47%	3,535	50.58%		NDP		Lib	1,600	5,135	254	–	–	–	–	6,989
Notre Dame		NDP		NDP	3,832	75.58%	3,100	61.14%		PC		Lib	3,832	732	319	105	–	–	82	5,070
Point Douglas		NDP		NDP	3,367	73.31%	2,625	57.15%		PC		Lib	3,367	742	484	–	–	–	–	4,593
Portage la Prairie		PC		PC	3,816	59.61%	1,898	29.65%		NDP		Green	1,918	3,816	301	367	–	–	–	6,402
Radisson		PC		NDP	5,954	52.31%	1,147	10.08%		PC		Lib	5,954	4,807	621	–	–	–	–	11,382
Red River North		PC		PC	5,926	60.35%	2,033	20.70%		NDP	N/A		3,893	5,926	–	–	–	–	–	9,819
Riding Mountain		PC		PC	5,644	63.02%	2,749	30.69%		NDP		Lib	2,895	5,644	417	–	–	–	–	8,956
Riel		PC		NDP	6,160	54.65%	1,882	16.70%		PC		Lib	6,160	4,278	834	–	–	–	–	11,272
River Heights		Lib		NDP	5,047	44.21%	643	5.63%		Lib		PC	5,047	1,807	4,404	158	–	–	–	11,416
Roblin		PC		PC	6,088	49.72%	1,120	9.15%		NDP		Lib	4,968	6,088	1,189	–	–	–	–	12,245
Rossmere		PC		NDP	4,863	50.74%	801	8.36%		PC		Lib	4,863	4,062	478	181	–	–	–	9,584
Seine River		PC		NDP	5,381	52.08%	1,407	13.62%		PC		Lib	5,381	3,974	846	–	131	–	–	10,332
Selkirk		PC		PC	4,963	52.49%	470	4.97%		NDP	N/A		4,493	4,963	–	–	–	–	–	9,456
Southdale		PC		NDP	5,569	48.48%	1,647	14.34%		PC		Lib	5,569	3,922	1,861	–	135	–	–	11,487
Springfield-Ritchot		PC		PC	5,752	54.89%	1,925	18.37%		NDP		Lib	3,827	5,752	900	–	–	–	–	10,479
Spruce Woods		PC		PC	4,986	61.81%	3,050	37.81%		NDP		Lib	1,936	4,986	1,145	–	–	–	–	8,067
St. Boniface		Lib		NDP	5,585	53.38%	2,172	20.76%		Lib		PC	5,585	1,391	3,413	–	–	–	73	10,462
St. James		NDP		NDP	5,448	64.82%	3,122	37.14%		PC		Lib	5,448	2,326	631	–	–	–	–	8,405
St. Johns		NDP		NDP	4,262	60.76%	3,145	44.83%		Ind		PC	4,262	1,101	535	–	1,117	–	–	7,015
St. Vital		NDP		NDP	5,288	61.15%	2,751	31.81%		PC		Lib	5,288	2,537	823	–	–	–	–	8,648
Steinbach		PC		PC	5,868	74.37%	4,647	58.90%		NDP		Lib	1,221	5,868	801	–	–	–	–	7,890
Swan River		PC		PC	4,801	62.91%	2,368	31.03%		NDP		KP	2,433	4,801	–	–	–	397	–	7,631
The Maples		NDP		NDP	3,905	56.13%	2,325	33.42%		PC		Lib	3,905	1,580	1,472	–	–	–	–	6,957
The Pas-Kameesak		NDP		NDP	3,522	67.18%	2,016	38.45%		PC		Lib	3,522	1,506	215	–	–	–	–	5,243
Thompson		NDP		NDP	2,887	68.28%	1,673	39.57%		PC		Lib	2,887	1,214	127	–	–	–	–	4,228
Transcona		NDP		NDP	5,235	58.50%	2,063	23.06%		PC		Lib	5,235	3,172	541	–	–	–	–	8,948
Turtle Mountain		PC		PC	4,806	55.05%	2,813	32.22%		NDP		KP	1,993	4,806	425	–	–	1,507	–	8,731
Tuxedo		PC		PC	3,968	40.21%	268	2.72%		NDP		Lib	3,700	3,968	2,201	–	–	–	–	9,869
Tyndall Park		Lib		Lib	4,030	54.99%	2,122	28.96%		NDP		PC	1,908	1,390	4,030	–	–	–	–	7,328
Union Station		NDP		NDP	3,714	70.78%	2,797	53.31%		PC		Lib	3,714	917	616	–	–	–	–	5,247
Waverley		PC		NDP	4,063	44.10%	115	1.25%		PC		Lib	4,063	3,948	1,001	201	–	–	–	9,213
Wolseley		NDP		NDP	6,582	75.31%	5,721	65.46%		PC		Lib	6,582	861	592	553	–	–	152	8,740

  = open seat

  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature

  = incumbent had switched allegiance

  = previously incumbent in another riding

  = incumbency arose from a byelection gain

  = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature

  = other incumbents renominated

  = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada

  = multiple candidates

Comparative analysis for ridings (2023 vs 2019)

Analytical charts

• 
  2023 vs 2019
• 
  2023 (by winning party)

• 
  2023 vs 2019
• 
  2023 (by party finishing second)

• 
  2023 vs 2019
• 
  2023

• 
  2023 vs 2019
• 
  2023 (by winning party)

Turnout, winning shares and swings

Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2019) ^{[43] [44]}

Riding and winning party				Turnout				Vote share [a 1]				Swing [a 2]
				%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			To	Change (pp)
Agassiz		PC	Hold	53.35	-2.70			63.85	-11.67			NDP	-10.42
Assiniboia		NDP	Gain	55.70	1.00			50.02	14.55			NDP	-9.25
Borderland		PC	Hold	50.45	-11.41			72.66	6.57			PC	5.38
Brandon East		NDP	Gain	46.99	1.30			55.64	19.30			NDP	-15.23
Brandon West		PC	Hold	51.68	0.41			48.75	-9.64			NDP	-16.73
Burrows		NDP	Hold	44.64	-1.43			46.04	6.35			NDP	5.00
Concordia		NDP	Hold	44.03	-4.43			64.52	4.83			NDP	4.25
Dauphin		NDP	Gain	60.30	1.68			52.06	9.67			NDP	-6.12
Dawson Trail		PC	Hold	56.86	-0.98			50.70	-4.71			N/A [a 3]
Elmwood		NDP	Hold	49.32	-0.90			62.21	13.53			NDP	8.88
Flin Flon		NDP	Hold	44.17	10.26			76.25	13.06			NDP	8.17
Fort Garry		NDP	Hold	58.75	-2.94			58.82	16.47			NDP	10.84
Fort Richmond		NDP	Gain	62.07	4.68			54.45	32.24			PC	6.70
Fort Rouge		NDP	Hold	58.04	-0.73			70.57	19.33			NDP	10.90
Fort Whyte		PC	Hold	64.37	4.02			47.87	-9.32			NDP	-3.26
Interlake-Gimli		PC	Hold	65.04	-0.52			49.59	-9.03			NDP	-9.48
Keewatinook		NDP	Hold	39.14	17.29			59.28	-7.80			NDP	2.26
Kildonan-River East		NDP	Gain	63.18	1.36			49.26	15.23			NDP	-11.75
Kirkfield Park		NDP	Gain	63.76	2.51			44.55	18.87			NDP	-15.24
La Vérendrye		PC	Hold	55.54	0.13			61.02	-11.77			NDP	-9.06
Lac du Bonnet		PC	Hold	60.77	-0.46			58.51	-7.40			NDP	-11.81
Lagimodière		NDP	Gain	64.05	1.78			46.24	18.37			NDP	-12.41
Lakeside		PC	Hold	60.98	1.76			61.68	-6.56			NDP	-5.75
McPhillips		NDP	Gain	54.61	-2.03			47.30	10.10			NDP	-2.07
Midland		PC	Hold	56.95	-2.32			69.38	-5.63			NDP	-6.34
Morden-Winkler		PC	Hold	44.32	-6.87			73.47	-7.39			N/A [a 4]
Notre Dame		NDP	Hold	37.88	-2.98			75.58	10.58			NDP	5.61
Point Douglas		NDP	Hold	32.76	-3.24			73.31	10.96			NDP	4.99
Portage la Prairie		PC	Hold	46.77	-1.87			59.61	-6.07			NDP	-7.01
Radisson		NDP	Gain	57.65	1.18			52.31	15.61			NDP	-10.17
Red River North		PC	Hold	60.47	-3.49			60.35	2.38			NDP	-6.20
Riding Mountain		PC	Hold	57.42	1.69			63.02	-2.89			NDP	-7.01
Riel		NDP	Gain	65.70	2.46			54.65	19.26			NDP	-13.03
River Heights		NDP	Gain	67.59	2.12			44.21	29.63			PC	-3.17
Roblin		PC	Hold	62.54	0.71			49.72	-5.47			NDP	-14.02
Rossmere		NDP	Gain	60.42	0.80			50.74	11.89			NDP	-8.21
Seine River		NDP	Gain	63.64	1.52			52.08	26.07			NDP	-16.32
Selkirk		PC	Hold	56.29	-2.96			52.49	0.65			NDP	-5.72
Southdale		NDP	Gain	64.72	3.06			48.48	10.64			NDP	-9.45
Springfield-Ritchot		PC	Hold	58.30	-2.27			54.89	-4.59			NDP	-10.16
Spruce Woods		PC	Hold	56.54	-0.21			61.81	-6.26			NDP	-7.19
St. Boniface		NDP	Gain	60.06	0.28			53.38	23.51			NDP	-16.29
St. James		NDP	Hold	54.68	-1.11			64.82	17.56			NDP	11.36
St. Johns		NDP	Hold	46.98	-0.36			60.76	8.88			NDP	8.83
St. Vital		NDP	Hold	56.88	-3.89			61.15	16.67			NDP	11.12
Steinbach		PC	Hold	48.14	-4.35			74.37	-7.26			NDP	-7.34
Swan River		PC	Hold	57.90	3.03			62.91	-5.95			NDP	-5.98
The Maples		NDP	Hold	50.62	-2.46			56.13	16.62			NDP	12.61
The Pas-Kameesak		NDP	Hold	53.52	10.48			67.18	9.27			NDP	2.44
Thompson		NDP	Hold	36.10	-1.17			68.28	13.73			NDP	10.35
Transcona		NDP	Hold	51.40	-1.05			58.50	12.09			NDP	10.88
Turtle Mountain		PC	Hold	55.64	-1.65			55.05	-12.43			N/A [a 4]
Tuxedo		PC	Hold	59.86	1.96			40.21	-7.65			Lib	-3.19
Tyndall Park		Lib	Hold	49.75	-6.64			54.99	0.32			Lib	2.42
Union Station		NDP	Hold	42.21	-1.85			70.78	18.16			NDP	12.58
Waverley		NDP	Gain	53.97	2.02			44.10	15.50			NDP	-11.35
Wolseley		NDP	Hold	53.77	-3.19			75.31	29.28			NDP	29.47

1. Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2019.
2. Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2019; negative points to 2019's second-place party being swung to.
3. a Liberal candidate came in second in 2019, but did not stand in 2023
4. a Green candidate came in second in 2019, but did not stand in 2023

Changes in party shares

Share change analysis by party and riding (2023 vs 2019) ^{[43] [44]}

Riding	Green				Liberal				NDP				PC
	%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)
Agassiz	–	-5.57			4.39	-1.74			21.94	9.17			63.85	-11.67
Assiniboia	–	-6.85			9.67	-3.76			50.02	14.55			40.31	-3.94
Borderland	–	-3.38			12.39	-4.19			14.94	11.01			72.66	6.57
Brandon East					4.52	-8.15			55.64	19.30			39.84	-11.16
Brandon West	3.63	-6.50			–	-7.68			47.62	23.82			48.75	-9.64
Burrows					31.50	13.19			46.04	6.35			22.46	-3.66
Concordia					7.33	-1.16			64.52	4.83			28.15	-3.67
Dauphin					–	-7.10			52.06	9.67			47.94	-2.57
Dawson Trail	4.59	4.59			–	-22.87			44.71	22.99			50.70	-4.71
Elmwood	3.83	-5.75			5.70	-3.65			62.21	13.53			27.59	-4.23
Flin Flon	–	-3.82			–	-5.95			76.25	13.06			23.75	-3.28
Fort Garry	2.62	-5.03			11.97	-6.22			58.82	16.47			26.60	-5.22
Fort Richmond	–	-4.93			10.36	-20.36			54.45	32.24			35.19	-6.96
Fort Rouge	–	-16.01			12.02	-1.05			70.57	19.33			16.34	-2.48
Fort Whyte	–	-6.77			37.06	19.44			15.08	-2.81			47.87	-9.32
Interlake-Gimli	–	-4.50			3.61	-0.20			43.01	9.94			49.59	-9.03
Keewatinook					6.25	-12.32			59.28	-7.80			34.46	20.12
Kildonan-River East					7.92	-6.95			49.26	15.23			42.82	-8.28
Kirkfield Park	1.80	-6.48			14.91	-0.76			44.55	18.87			38.74	-11.62
La Vérendrye					8.52	-4.36			20.68	6.34			61.02	-11.77
Lac du Bonnet	5.91	5.91			–	-14.74			35.57	16.22			58.51	-7.40
Lagimodière	–	-5.56			8.43	-6.36			46.24	18.37			45.33	-6.45
Lakeside					11.15	1.64			27.17	4.93			61.68	-6.56
McPhillips	–	-4.71			8.54	-8.58			47.30	10.10			44.16	5.97
Midland					8.21	-1.43			22.41	7.06			69.38	-5.63
Morden-Winkler	–	-10.64			3.63	-0.03			22.89	18.06			73.47	-7.39
Notre Dame	2.07	-3.00			6.29	-7.37			75.58	10.58			14.44	-0.65
Point Douglas	–	-8.23			10.54	-1.27			73.31	10.96			16.16	0.99
Portage la Prairie	5.73	5.73			4.70	-7.63			29.96	7.96			59.61	-6.07
Radisson	–	-5.93			5.46	-4.94			52.31	15.61			42.23	-4.73
Red River North	–	-7.70			–	-7.65			39.65	14.78			60.35	2.38
Riding Mountain	–	-7.81			4.66	-0.42			32.32	11.13			63.02	-2.89
Riel	–	-5.96			7.40	-6.51			54.65	19.26			37.95	-6.80
River Heights	1.38	-5.54			38.58	-15.22			44.21	29.63			15.83	-8.87
Roblin	–	-11.02			9.71	-6.08			40.57	22.57			49.72	-5.47
Rossmere	1.89	-4.72			4.99	-2.65			50.74	11.89			42.38	-4.53
Seine River	–	-6.79			8.19	-13.97			52.08	26.07			38.46	-6.58
Selkirk	–	-7.62			–	-5.13			47.51	12.10			52.49	0.65
Southdale	–	-5.62			16.20	2.73			48.48	10.64			34.14	-8.26
Springfield-Ritchot	–	-11.18			8.59	0.05			36.52	15.73			54.89	-4.59
Spruce Woods	–	-9.85			14.19	7.98			24.00	8.13			61.81	-6.26
St. Boniface	–	-8.48			32.62	-9.06			53.38	23.51			13.30	-5.85
St. James	–	-9.52			7.51	-2.88			64.82	17.56			27.67	-5.16
St. Johns	–	-7.40			7.63	-8.62			60.76	8.88			15.69	-8.78
St. Vital	–	-5.46			9.52	-4.33			61.15	16.67			29.34	-5.56
Steinbach	–	-5.47			10.15	5.31			15.48	7.42			74.37	-7.26
Swan River					–	-5.25			31.88	6.00			62.91	-5.95
The Maples	–	-4.09			21.16	-8.60			56.13	16.62			22.71	-3.93
The Pas-Kameesak	–	-14.38			4.10	0.71			67.18	9.27			28.72	4.40
Thompson	–	-6.05			3.00	-0.71			68.28	13.73			28.71	-6.97
Transcona					6.05	-2.41			58.50	12.09			35.45	-9.68
Turtle Mountain	–	-14.91			4.87	-1.85			22.83	11.93			55.05	-12.43
Tuxedo	–	-8.17			22.30	-1.26			37.49	17.70			40.21	-7.65
Tyndall Park	–	-2.00			54.99	0.32			26.04	-4.51			18.97	6.46
Union Station	–	-9.72			11.74	-6.99			70.78	18.16			17.48	0.32
Waverley	2.18	-2.78			10.87	-5.53			44.10	15.50			42.85	-7.19
Wolseley	6.33	-29.67			6.77	-1.61			75.31	29.28			9.85	0.82

  = did not field a candidate in 2019

Results by riding

Riding	Outgoing MLA		Elected MLA
Agassiz		Eileen Clarke		Jodie Byram
Assiniboia		Scott Johnston		Nellie Kennedy
Borderland		Josh Guenter		Josh Guenter
Brandon East		Len Isleifson		Glen Simard
Brandon West		Reg Helwer		Wayne Balcaen
Burrows		Diljeet Brar		Diljeet Brar
Concordia		Matt Wiebe		Matt Wiebe
Dauphin		Brad Michaleski		Ron Kostyshyn
Dawson Trail		Bob Lagassé		Bob Lagassé
Elmwood		Jim Maloway		Jim Maloway
Flin Flon		Tom Lindsey		Tom Lindsey
Fort Garry		Mark Wasyliw		Mark Wasyliw
Fort Richmond		Sarah Guillemard		Jennifer Chen
Fort Rouge		Wab Kinew		Wab Kinew
Fort Whyte		Obby Khan		Obby Khan
Interlake-Gimli		Derek Johnson		Derek Johnson
Keewatinook		Ian Bushie		Ian Bushie
Kildonan-River East		Cathy Cox		Rachelle Schott
Kirkfield Park		Kevin Klein		Logan Oxenham
La Verendrye		Dennis Smook		Konrad Narth
Lac du Bonnet		Wayne Ewasko		Wayne Ewasko
Lagimodière		Andrew Smith		Tyler Blashko
Lakeside		Ralph Eichler		Trevor King
McPhillips		Shannon Martin		Jasdeep Devgan
Midland		Blaine Pedersen		Lauren Stone
Morden-Winkler		Cameron Friesen		Carrie Hiebert
Notre Dame		Malaya Marcelino		Malaya Marcelino
Point Douglas		Bernadette Smith		Bernadette Smith
Portage la Prairie		Ian Wishart		Jeff Bereza
Radisson		James Teitsma		Jelynn Dela Cruz
Red River North		Jeff Wharton		Jeff Wharton
Riding Mountain		Greg Nesbitt		Greg Nesbitt
Riel		Rochelle Squires		Mike Moyes
River Heights		Jon Gerrard		Mike Moroz
Roblin		Myrna Driedger		Kathleen Cook
Rossmere		Andrew Micklefield		Tracy Schmidt
Seine River		Janice Morley-Lecomte		Billie Cross
Selkirk		Alan Lagimodiere		Richard Perchotte
Southdale		Audrey Gordon		Renée Cable
Springfield-Ritchot		Ron Schuler		Ron Schuler
Spruce Woods		Cliff Cullen		Grant Jackson
St. Boniface		Dougald Lamont		Robert Loiselle
St. James		Adrien Sala		Adrien Sala
St. Johns		Nahanni Fontaine		Nahanni Fontaine
St. Vital		Jamie Moses		Jamie Moses
Steinbach		Kelvin Goertzen		Kelvin Goertzen
Swan River		Rick Wowchuk		Rick Wowchuk
The Maples		Mintu Sandhu		Mintu Sandhu
The Pas-Kameesak		Amanda Lathlin		Amanda Lathlin
Thompson		Eric Redhead		Eric Redhead
Transcona		Nello Altomare		Nello Altomare
Turtle Mountain		Doyle Piwniuk		Doyle Piwniuk
Tuxedo		Heather Stefanson		Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park		Cindy Lamoureux		Cindy Lamoureux
Union Station		Uzoma Asagwara		Uzoma Asagwara
Waverley		Jon Reyes		David Pankratz
Wolseley		Lisa Naylor		Lisa Naylor

Analysis

Party candidates in 2nd place

Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place				Total
		NDP	PC	Lib	Ind
	New Democratic		30	3	1	34
	Progressive Conservative	21		1		22
	Liberal	1				1
Total		22	30	4	1	57

Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party

Parties	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
█  New Democratic	34	22	1
█  Progressive Conservative	22	30	5
█  Liberal	1	4	38	6
█  Independent		1		2
█  Keystone			5
█  Green			4	9
█  Communist				2	3

Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature

Source		Party
		NDP	PC	Lib	Total
Seats retained	Incumbents returned	18	12	1	31
	Open seats held		10		10
Seats changing hands	Incumbents defeated	12			12
	Open seats gained	4			4
Total		34	22	1	57

Aftermath

Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly. ^[45] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

Seats changing hands

Defeated MLAs

Constituency	Party	Name	Year elected	Seat held by party since	Defeated by	Party
St. Boniface	█  Liberal	Dougald Lamont	2018 b.e	2018 b.e	Robert Loiselle	█  New Democratic
River Heights	█  Liberal	Jon Gerrard	1999	1999	Mike Moroz	█  New Democratic
Southdale	█  Progressive Conservative	Audrey Gordon	2019	2016	Renée Cable	█  New Democratic
Kirkfield Park	█  Progressive Conservative	Kevin Klein	2022	2016	Logan Oxenham	█  New Democratic
Radisson	█  Progressive Conservative	James Teitsma	2016	2016	Jelynn Dela Cruz	█  New Democratic
Seine River	█  Progressive Conservative	Janice Morley-Lecomte	2016	2016	Billie Cross	█  New Democratic
Waverley	█  Progressive Conservative	Jon Reyes	2016	2019 (District Created)	David Pankratz	█  New Democratic
Brandon East	█  Progressive Conservative	Len Isleifson	2016	2016	Glen Simard	█  New Democratic
Riel	█  Progressive Conservative	Rochelle Squires	2016	2016	Mike Moyes	█  New Democratic
Lagimodière	█  Progressive Conservative	Andrew Smith	2016	2019 (District Created)	Tyler Blashko	█  New Democratic
Assiniboia	█  Progressive Conservative	Scott Johnston	2016	2016	Nellie Kennedy	█  New Democratic
Rossmere	█  Progressive Conservative	Andrew Micklefield	2016	2016	Tracy Schmidt	█  New Democratic

Open seats

Constituency	Party	Candidate	Incumbent retiring from the legislature	Won by	Party
Fort Richmond	█  Progressive Conservative	Paramjit Shahi	Sarah Guillemard [24]	Jennifer Chen	█  New Democratic
Kildonan-River East	█  Progressive Conservative	Alana Vannahme	Cathy Cox [25]	Rachelle Schott	█  New Democratic
McPhillips	█  Progressive Conservative	Sheilah Restall	Shannon Martin	Jasdeep Devgan	█  New Democratic
Dauphin	█  Progressive Conservative	Gord Wood	Brad Michaleski	Ron Kostyshyn	█  New Democratic

Marginal seats

Previous marginal seats

Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

Seat	2019 held			2023 winner
	Party		Margin	Party		Margin
McPhillips		PC	1.00%		NDP	3.02%
Transcona		NDP	1.29%		NDP	23.06%
Southdale		PC	4.56%		NDP	14.32%
Rossmere		PC	8.06%		NDP	8.29%
Dauphin		PC	8.13%		NDP	3.28%
Assiniboia		PC	8.79%		NDP	9.69%
Riel		PC	9.36%		NDP	16.61%
St. Vital		NDP	9.58%		NDP	30.79%
The Maples		NDP	9.75%		NDP	32.33%
Wolseley		NDP	9.98%		NDP	65.42%

New marginal seats

Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.

Seat	2019 held			2023 Winner
	Party		Margin	Party		Margin
Lagimodière		PC	23.91%		NDP	0.84%
Brandon West		PC	24.59%		PC	1.22%
Waverley		PC	21.45%		NDP	1.30%
Tuxedo		PC	24.57%		PC	2.65%
McPhillips		PC	1.00%		NDP	3.02%
Dauphin		PC	8.13%		NDP	3.28%
Selkirk		PC	16.42%		PC	4.98%
River Heights		Lib	29.09%		NDP	5.58%
Kirkfield Park		PC	24.68%		NDP	5.94%
Interlake-Gimli		PC	25.55%		PC	6.59%
Kildonan-River East		PC	17.06%		NDP	6.71%
Rossmere		PC	8.06%		NDP	8.29%
Dawson Trail		PC	32.54%		PC	8.90%
Roblin		PC	37.19%		PC	9.15%
Assiniboia		PC	8.79%		NDP	9.69%

Opinion polls

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Polling firm	Dates conducted	Source	PC	NDP	Liberal	Green	Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
Forum Research	Oct 2, 2023	[p 1]	41.3%	44.7%	12.3%	0.9%	0.8%	3.3%	910	IVR	3.4%
Research Co.	Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023	[p 2]	39%	48%	10%	2%	1%	4%	600	Online	9%
Mainstreet Research	Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023	[p 3]	41%	47%	10%	1%	1%	3.7%	698	Smart IVR	6%
Sovereign North Strategies	Sep 17–19, 2023	[p 4]	42.5%	39.4%	15.9%	2.2%	N/A	3.9%	852	Telephone	3.1%
Angus Reid	Sep 13–19, 2023	[p 5]	41%	47%	9%	2%	1%	4%	990	Online	6%
Probe Research	Sep 7–18, 2023	[p 6]	38%	49%	9%	2%	2%	3.1%	1,000	Online	11%
Research Co.	Sep 15–17, 2023	[p 7]	39%	41%	14%	3%	2%	4%	600	Online	2%
Counsel Public Affairs	Sep 11–16, 2023	[p 8]	39%	44%	13%	2%	2%	4%	505	Online	5%
Mainstreet Research	Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2023	[p 9]	43%	42%	9%	3%	3%	4%	601	Smart IVR	1%
Mainstreet Research	Jul 26–28, 2023	[p 10]	42%	38%	12%	3%	4%	4%	597	Smart IVR	4%
Probe Research	May 31 – Jun 13, 2023	[p 11]	41%	41%	10%	5%	3%	3.1%	1,000	Online	Tie
Angus Reid	May 30 – Jun 3, 2023	[p 12]	39%	44%	10%	4%	4%	4%	515	Online	5%
	March 26, 2023	Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
Probe Research	Mar 8–20, 2023	[p 13]	38%	44%	9%	4%	4%	3.1%	1,000	Online	6%
Mainstreet Research	Jan 24–26, 2023	[p 14]	36.2%	41.5%	14.6%	5.1%	2.1%	4.3%	514	Smart IVR	5.3%
Probe Research	Nov 22 – Dec 5, 2022	[p 15]	35%	46%	13%	3%	2%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone/Online	11%
Probe Research	Sep 8–18, 2022	[p 16]	37%	44%	15%	3%	1%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	7%
Angus Reid	Jun 7–13, 2022	[p 17]	38%	40%	13%	3%	6%	5%	468	Online	2%
Probe Research	Jun 1–12, 2022	[p 18]	35%	45%	13%	3%	4%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	10%
Probe Research	Mar 9–21, 2022	[p 19]	34%	44%	15%	2%	5%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	10%
Angus Reid	Mar 10–15, 2022	[p 20] [p 21]	39%	40%	14%	3%	5%	4%	475	Online	1%
Angus Reid	Jan 7–12, 2022	[p 22]	36%	42%	12%	3%	6%	5%	407	Online	6%
Probe Research	Nov 23 – Dec 5, 2021	[p 23]	37%	42%	12%	4%	5%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	5%
	October 30, 2021	Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research	Sep 24 – Oct 5, 2021	[p 24]	41%	32%	18%	5%	3%	N/A	678	Online	9%
Angus Reid	Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021	[p 25]	38%	43%	11%	4%	5%	N/A	435	Online	5%
Probe Research	Sep 7–20, 2021	[p 26]	35%	42%	12%	3%	8%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	7%
Probe Research	Jun 2–11, 2021	[p 27]	29%	47%	14%	5%	5%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	18%
Angus Reid	Jun 2–7, 2021	[p 28]	39%	42%	11%	4%	4%	4.0%	504	Online	3%
Probe Research	Mar 10–26, 2021	[p 29]	36%	42%	11%	7%	4%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	6%
Probe Research	Nov 24 – Dec 4, 2020	[p 30]	37%	41%	14%	6%	3%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	4%
Angus Reid	Nov 24–30, 2020	[p 31]	39%	40%	12%	5%	4%	4.8%	420	Online	1%
Probe Research	Sep 8–17, 2020	[p 32]	43%	34%	16%	5%	3%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	9%
EKOS	Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020	[p 33]	44%	31%	12%	9%	4%	2.9%	1,154	HD-IVR	13%
EKOS	Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020	[p 34]	43%	27%	18%	7%	5%	2.4%	1,691	HD-IVR	16%
Probe Research	Jun 2–11, 2020	[p 35]	38%	36%	18%	7%	2%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	2%
Innovative Research	May 29 – Jun 3, 2020	[p 36]	38%	26%	26%	10%	N/A	N/A	200	Online	12%
Probe Research	Mar 10–24, 2020	[p 37]	43%	33%	14%	8%	2%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	10%
Probe Research	Nov 27 – Dec 10, 2019	[p 38]	42%	36%	13%	8%	2%	3.1%	1,000	Telephone	6%
2019 general election	September 10, 2019	—	47.1%	31.4%	14.5%	6.4%	0.6%	—	—	—	15.7%
Polling firm	Dates conducted	Source					Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
			PC	NDP	Liberal	Green

See also

• 2023 Alberta general election
• 2023 Prince Edward Island general election
• 2023 Canadian electoral calendar

References

1. Elections Act , CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
2. CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
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4. Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News . Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
5. "PCs make opposition to landfill search a central facet of campaign as Manitoba election day nears". CBC News. Retrieved June 28, 2024.
6. "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
7. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
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