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57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 55.29% ![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed on the bottom. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.
Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. [1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date. [2] The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.
On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure. [3] [4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.
Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, and parental rights in education. [5] [6] Kinew led the NDP into the election. [7] The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget. [8] [9] Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.
The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg. [10] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services. [10] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes. [11] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60. [12] They also promised a new debt relief system if elected. [13] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting. [14]
During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of the murdered Indigenous women Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search. [5] [15] Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign. [16]
Other campaign issues included crime, [17] agriculture [18] and affordable housing. [19]
Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP. [20] In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million. [21]
Candidates | NDP | PC | Lib | Grn | KP | Comm | Ind | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | |||||
3 | 34 | 34 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 102 | ||
4 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 64 |
5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | ||
Total | 57 | 57 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 189 |
Party [23] | Leader | Candidates | Seats | Popular vote | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | Dissolution | Elected | % | +/– | Votes | % | Change (pp) | |||||
New Democratic | Wab Kinew | 57 | 18 | 18 | 34 | 59.65 | +16 | 221,695 | 45.63 | +14.25 | ||
Progressive Conservative | Heather Stefanson | 57 | 36 | 35 | 22 | 38.60 | –14 | 203,350 | 41.86 | −5.21 | ||
Liberal | Dougald Lamont | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1.75 | –2 | 51,634 | 10.63 | −3.85 | ||
Keystone | Kevin Friesen | 5 | – | – | – | – | − | 3,727 | 0.77 | New | ||
Green | Janine Gibson | 13 | – | – | – | – | − | 3,584 | 0.74 | −5.63 | ||
Communist | Andrew Taylor | 5 | – | – | – | – | − | 461 | 0.09 | +0.04 | ||
Independents | 3 | – | – | – | – | − | 1,383 | 0.28 | +0.10 | |||
Vacant | 1 | |||||||||||
Valid votes | 485,834 | 99.31 | ||||||||||
Blank and invalid votes | 3,374 | 0.69 | ||||||||||
Total | 189 | 57 | 57 | – | 489,208 | 100 | ||||||
Registered voters/turnout | 884,864 | 55.29 |
Electoral district | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee | New MLA | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Agassiz | Eileen Clarke [24] | Jodie Byram | Jodie Byram | ||
Brandon West | Reg Helwer [25] | Wayne Balcaen | Wayne Balcaen | ||
Fort Richmond | Sarah Guillemard [26] | Paramjit Shahi | Jennifer Chen | ||
Kildonan-River East | Cathy Cox [27] | Alana Vannahme | Rachelle Schott | ||
Lakeside | Ralph Eichler [28] | Trevor King | Trevor King | ||
La Verendrye | Dennis Smook [29] | Konrad Narth | Konrad Narth | ||
McPhillips | Shannon Martin [30] | Sheilah Restall | Jasdeep Devgan | ||
Midland | Blaine Pedersen [31] | Lauren Stone | Lauren Stone | ||
Portage la Prairie | Ian Wishart [32] | Jeff Bereza | Jeff Bereza | ||
Roblin | Myrna Driedger [33] | Kathleen Cook | Kathleen Cook | ||
Spruce Woods | Cliff Cullen [34] | Grant Jackson | Grant Jackson | ||
Selkirk | Alan Lagimodiere [35] | Richard Perchotte | Richard Perchotte | ||
The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively. [36] [37] [38]
Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%
Seat | 2019 held | 2023 winner | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Margin | Party | Margin | |||
McPhillips | PC | 1.00% | NDP | 3.02% | ||
Transcona | NDP | 1.29% | NDP | 23.06% | ||
Southdale | PC | 4.56% | NDP | 14.32% | ||
Rossmere | PC | 8.06% | NDP | 8.29% | ||
Dauphin | PC | 8.13% | NDP | 3.28% | ||
Assiniboia | PC | 8.79% | NDP | 9.69% | ||
Riel | PC | 9.36% | NDP | 16.61% | ||
St. Vital | NDP | 9.58% | NDP | 30.79% | ||
The Maples | NDP | 9.75% | NDP | 32.33% | ||
Wolseley | NDP | 9.98% | NDP | 65.42% |
Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.
Seat | 2019 held | 2023 Winner | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Margin | Party | Margin | |||
Lagimodière | PC | 23.91% | NDP | 0.84% | ||
Brandon West | PC | 24.59% | PC | 1.22% | ||
Waverley | PC | 21.45% | NDP | 1.30% | ||
Tuxedo | PC | 24.57% | PC | 2.65% | ||
McPhillips | PC | 1.00% | NDP | 3.02% | ||
Dauphin | PC | 8.13% | NDP | 3.28% | ||
Selkirk | PC | 16.42% | PC | 4.98% | ||
River Heights | Lib | 29.09% | NDP | 5.58% | ||
Kirkfield Park | PC | 24.68% | NDP | 5.94% | ||
Interlake-Gimli | PC | 25.55% | PC | 6.59% | ||
Kildonan-River East | PC | 17.06% | NDP | 6.71% | ||
Rossmere | PC | 8.06% | NDP | 8.29% | ||
Dawson Trail | PC | 32.54% | PC | 8.90% | ||
Roblin | PC | 37.19% | PC | 9.15% | ||
Assiniboia | PC | 8.79% | NDP | 9.69% |
Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election. [39] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital. [40] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings. [41] Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points. [42]
Electoral division [a 1] | Winning party | Turnout [a 2] | Votes | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 1st place | Votes | Share | Margin # | Margin % | 2nd place | 3rd place | NDP | PC | Lib | Key | Green | Comm | Ind | Total | ||||||
Agassiz | PC | PC | 4,519 | 63.85% | 2,966 | 41.91% | NDP | Key | 53.35% | 1,553 | 4,519 | 311 | 694 | – | – | – | 7,077 | ||||
Assiniboia | PC | NDP | 4,722 | 50.02% | 916 | 9.70% | PC | Lib | 55.70% | 4,722 | 3,806 | 913 | – | – | – | – | 9,441 | ||||
Borderland | PC | PC | 4,479 | 72.66% | 3,558 | 57.72% | NDP | Lib | 50.45% | 921 | 4,479 | 764 | – | – | – | – | 6,164 | ||||
Brandon East | PC | NDP | 3,758 | 55.64% | 1,067 | 15.80% | PC | Lib | 46.99% | 3,758 | 2,691 | 305 | – | – | – | – | 6,754 | ||||
Brandon West | PC | PC | 3,814 | 48.75% | 89 | 1.14% | NDP | Green | 51.68% | 3,725 | 3,814 | – | – | 284 | – | – | 7,823 | ||||
Burrows | NDP | NDP | 3,032 | 46.04% | 958 | 14.55% | Lib | PC | 44.64% | 3,032 | 1,479 | 2,074 | – | – | – | – | 6,585 | ||||
Concordia | NDP | NDP | 4,235 | 64.52% | 2,387 | 36.37% | PC | Lib | 44.03% | 4,235 | 1,848 | 481 | – | – | – | – | 6,564 | ||||
Dauphin | PC | NDP | 4,887 | 52.06% | 386 | 4.11% | PC | N/A | 60.30% | 4,887 | 4,501 | – | – | – | – | – | 9,388 | ||||
Dawson Trail | PC | PC | 4,592 | 50.70% | 543 | 6.00% | NDP | Green | 56.86% | 4,049 | 4,592 | – | – | 416 | – | – | 9,057 | ||||
Elmwood | NDP | NDP | 4,933 | 62.21% | 2,745 | 34.62% | PC | Lib | 49.32% | 4,933 | 2,188 | 452 | – | 304 | 52 | – | 7,929 | ||||
Flin Flon | NDP | NDP | 2,951 | 76.25% | 2,032 | 52.51% | PC | N/A | 44.17% | 2,951 | 919 | – | – | – | – | – | 3,870 | ||||
Fort Garry | NDP | NDP | 5,319 | 58.82% | 2,914 | 32.22% | PC | Lib | 58.75% | 5,319 | 2,405 | 1,082 | – | 237 | – | – | 9,043 | ||||
Fort Richmond | PC | NDP | 4,455 | 54.45% | 1,576 | 19.26% | PC | Lib | 62.07% | 4,455 | 2,879 | 848 | – | – | – | – | 8,182 | ||||
Fort Rouge | NDP | NDP | 6,761 | 70.57% | 5,195 | 54.22% | PC | Lib | 58.04% | 6,761 | 1,566 | 1,152 | – | – | 102 | – | 9,581 | ||||
Fort Whyte | PC | PC | 5,442 | 47.87% | 1,229 | 10.81% | Lib | NDP | 64.37% | 1,714 | 5,442 | 4,213 | – | – | – | – | 11,369 | ||||
Interlake-Gimli | PC | PC | 5,143 | 49.59% | 683 | 6.59% | NDP | Key | 65.04% | 4,460 | 5,143 | 374 | 393 | – | – | – | 10,370 | ||||
Keewatinook | NDP | NDP | 1,820 | 59.28% | 762 | 24.82% | PC | Lib | 39.14% | 1,820 | 1,058 | 192 | – | – | – | – | 3,070 | ||||
Kildonan-River East | PC | NDP | 5,574 | 49.26% | 729 | 6.44% | PC | Lib | 63.18% | 5,574 | 4,845 | 896 | – | – | – | – | 11,315 | ||||
Kirkfield Park | PC | NDP | 5,067 | 44.55% | 661 | 5.81% | PC | Lib | 63.76% | 5,067 | 4,406 | 1,696 | – | 205 | – | – | 11,374 | ||||
La Verendrye | PC | PC | 4,586 | 61.02% | 3,032 | 40.34% | NDP | Key | 55.54% | 1,554 | 4,586 | 640 | 736 | – | – | – | 7,516 | ||||
Lac du Bonnet | PC | PC | 5,670 | 58.51% | 2,223 | 22.94% | NDP | Green | 60.77% | 3,447 | 5,670 | – | – | 573 | – | – | 9,690 | ||||
Lagimodière | PC | NDP | 5,711 | 46.24% | 112 | 0.91% | PC | Lib | 64.05% | 5,711 | 5,599 | 1,041 | – | – | – | – | 12,351 | ||||
Lakeside | PC | PC | 6,088 | 61.68% | 3,406 | 34.51% | NDP | Lib | 60.98% | 2,682 | 6,088 | 1,101 | – | – | – | – | 9,871 | ||||
McPhillips | PC | NDP | 4,905 | 47.30% | 325 | 3.13% | PC | Lib | 54.61% | 4,905 | 4,580 | 886 | – | – | – | – | 10,371 | ||||
Midland | PC | PC | 6,227 | 69.38% | 4,216 | 46.97% | NDP | Lib | 56.95% | 2,011 | 6,227 | 737 | – | – | – | – | 8,975 | ||||
Morden-Winkler | PC | PC | 5,135 | 73.47% | 3,535 | 50.58% | NDP | Lib | 44.32% | 1,600 | 5,135 | 254 | – | – | – | – | 6,989 | ||||
Notre Dame | NDP | NDP | 3,832 | 75.58% | 3,100 | 61.14% | PC | Lib | 37.88% | 3,832 | 732 | 319 | – | 105 | 82 | – | 5,070 | ||||
Point Douglas | NDP | NDP | 3,367 | 73.31% | 2,625 | 57.15% | PC | Lib | 32.76% | 3,367 | 742 | 484 | – | – | – | – | 4,593 | ||||
Portage la Prairie | PC | PC | 3,816 | 59.61% | 1,898 | 29.65% | NDP | Green | 46.77% | 1,918 | 3,816 | 301 | – | 367 | – | – | 6,402 | ||||
Radisson | PC | NDP | 5,954 | 52.31% | 1,147 | 10.08% | PC | Lib | 57.65% | 5,954 | 4,807 | 621 | – | – | – | – | 11,382 | ||||
Red River North | PC | PC | 5,926 | 60.35% | 2,033 | 20.70% | NDP | N/A | 60.47% | 3,893 | 5,926 | – | – | – | – | – | 9,819 | ||||
Riding Mountain | PC | PC | 5,644 | 63.02% | 2,749 | 30.69% | NDP | Lib | 57.42% | 2,895 | 5,644 | 417 | – | – | – | – | 8,956 | ||||
Riel | PC | NDP | 6,160 | 54.65% | 1,882 | 16.70% | PC | Lib | 65.70% | 6,160 | 4,278 | 834 | – | – | – | – | 11,272 | ||||
River Heights | Lib | NDP | 5,047 | 44.21% | 643 | 5.63% | Lib | PC | 67.59% | 5,047 | 1,807 | 4,404 | – | 158 | – | – | 11,416 | ||||
Roblin | PC | PC | 6,088 | 49.72% | 1,120 | 9.15% | NDP | Lib | 62.54% | 4,968 | 6,088 | 1,189 | – | – | – | – | 12,245 | ||||
Rossmere | PC | NDP | 4,863 | 50.74% | 801 | 8.36% | PC | Lib | 60.42% | 4,863 | 4,062 | 478 | – | 181 | – | – | 9,584 | ||||
Seine River | PC | NDP | 5,381 | 52.08% | 1,407 | 13.62% | PC | Lib | 63.64% | 5,381 | 3,974 | 846 | – | – | – | 131 | 10,332 | ||||
Selkirk | PC | PC | 4,963 | 52.49% | 470 | 4.97% | NDP | N/A | 56.29% | 4,493 | 4,963 | – | – | – | – | – | 9,456 | ||||
Southdale | PC | NDP | 5,569 | 48.48% | 1,647 | 14.34% | PC | Lib | 64.72% | 5,569 | 3,922 | 1,861 | – | – | – | 135 | 11,487 | ||||
Springfield-Ritchot | PC | PC | 5,752 | 54.89% | 1,925 | 18.37% | NDP | Lib | 58.30% | 3,827 | 5,752 | 900 | – | – | – | – | 10,479 | ||||
Spruce Woods | PC | PC | 4,986 | 61.81% | 3,050 | 37.81% | NDP | Lib | 56.54% | 1,936 | 4,986 | 1,145 | – | – | – | – | 8,067 | ||||
St. Boniface | Lib | NDP | 5,585 | 53.38% | 2,172 | 20.76% | Lib | PC | 60.06% | 5,585 | 1,391 | 3,413 | – | – | 73 | – | 10,462 | ||||
St. James | NDP | NDP | 5,448 | 64.82% | 3,122 | 37.14% | PC | Lib | 54.68% | 5,448 | 2,326 | 631 | – | – | – | – | 8,405 | ||||
St. Johns | NDP | NDP | 4,262 | 60.76% | 3,145 | 44.83% | Ind | PC | 46.98% | 4,262 | 1,101 | 535 | – | – | – | 1,117 | 7,015 | ||||
St. Vital | NDP | NDP | 5,288 | 61.15% | 2,751 | 31.81% | PC | Lib | 56.88% | 5,288 | 2,537 | 823 | – | – | – | – | 8,648 | ||||
Steinbach | PC | PC | 5,868 | 74.37% | 4,647 | 58.90% | NDP | Lib | 48.14% | 1,221 | 5,868 | 801 | – | – | – | – | 7,890 | ||||
Swan River | PC | PC | 4,801 | 62.91% | 2,368 | 31.03% | NDP | Key | 57.90% | 2,433 | 4,801 | – | 397 | – | – | – | 7,631 | ||||
The Maples | NDP | NDP | 3,905 | 56.13% | 2,325 | 33.42% | PC | Lib | 50.62% | 3,905 | 1,580 | 1,472 | – | – | – | – | 6,957 | ||||
The Pas-Kameesak | NDP | NDP | 3,522 | 67.18% | 2,016 | 38.45% | PC | Lib | 53.52% | 3,522 | 1,506 | 215 | – | – | – | – | 5,243 | ||||
Thompson | NDP | NDP | 2,887 | 68.28% | 1,673 | 39.57% | PC | Lib | 36.10% | 2,887 | 1,214 | 127 | – | – | – | – | 4,228 | ||||
Transcona | NDP | NDP | 5,235 | 58.50% | 2,063 | 23.06% | PC | Lib | 51.40% | 5,235 | 3,172 | 541 | – | – | – | – | 8,948 | ||||
Turtle Mountain | PC | PC | 4,806 | 55.05% | 2,813 | 32.22% | NDP | Key | 55.64% | 1,993 | 4,806 | 425 | 1,507 | – | – | – | 8,731 | ||||
Tuxedo | PC | PC | 3,968 | 40.21% | 268 | 2.72% | NDP | Lib | 59.86% | 3,700 | 3,968 | 2,201 | – | – | – | – | 9,869 | ||||
Tyndall Park | Lib | Lib | 4,030 | 54.99% | 2,122 | 28.96% | NDP | PC | 49.75% | 1,908 | 1,390 | 4,030 | – | – | – | – | 7,328 | ||||
Union Station | NDP | NDP | 3,714 | 70.78% | 2,797 | 53.31% | PC | Lib | 42.21% | 3,714 | 917 | 616 | – | – | – | – | 5,247 | ||||
Waverley | PC | NDP | 4,063 | 44.10% | 115 | 1.25% | PC | Lib | 53.97% | 4,063 | 3,948 | 1,001 | – | 201 | – | – | 9,213 | ||||
Wolseley | NDP | NDP | 6,582 | 75.31% | 5,721 | 65.46% | PC | Lib | 53.77% | 6,582 | 861 | 592 | – | 553 | 152 | – | 8,740 |
Riding and winning party | Turnout | Vote share [a 1] | Swing [a 2] | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% | Change (pp) | % | Change (pp) | Change (pp) | ||||||||||
Agassiz | PC | Hold | 53.35 | -2.70 | 63.85 | -11.67 | -10.42 | |||||||
Assiniboia | NDP | Gain | 55.70 | 1.00 | 50.02 | 14.55 | -9.25 | |||||||
Borderland | PC | Hold | 50.45 | -11.41 | 72.66 | 6.57 | 5.38 | |||||||
Brandon East | NDP | Gain | 46.99 | 1.30 | 55.64 | 19.30 | -15.23 | |||||||
Brandon West | PC | Hold | 51.68 | 0.41 | 48.75 | -9.64 | -16.73 | |||||||
Burrows | NDP | Hold | 44.64 | -1.43 | 46.04 | 6.35 | 5.00 | |||||||
Concordia | NDP | Hold | 44.03 | -4.43 | 64.52 | 4.83 | 4.25 | |||||||
Dauphin | NDP | Gain | 60.30 | 1.68 | 52.06 | 9.67 | -6.12 | |||||||
Dawson Trail | PC | Hold | 56.86 | -0.98 | 50.70 | -4.71 | 9.08 | |||||||
Elmwood | NDP | Hold | 49.32 | -0.90 | 62.21 | 13.53 | 8.88 | |||||||
Flin Flon | NDP | Hold | 44.17 | 10.26 | 76.25 | 13.06 | 8.17 | |||||||
Fort Garry | NDP | Hold | 58.75 | -2.94 | 58.82 | 16.47 | 10.84 | |||||||
Fort Richmond | NDP | Gain | 62.07 | 4.68 | 54.45 | 32.24 | 6.70 | |||||||
Fort Rouge | NDP | Hold | 58.04 | -0.73 | 70.57 | 19.33 | 10.90 | |||||||
Fort Whyte | PC | Hold | 64.37 | 4.02 | 47.87 | -9.32 | -3.26 | |||||||
Interlake-Gimli | PC | Hold | 65.04 | -0.52 | 49.59 | -9.03 | -9.48 | |||||||
Keewatinook | NDP | Hold | 39.14 | 17.29 | 59.28 | -7.80 | 2.26 | |||||||
Kildonan-River East | NDP | Gain | 63.18 | 1.36 | 49.26 | 15.23 | -11.75 | |||||||
Kirkfield Park | NDP | Gain | 63.76 | 2.51 | 44.55 | 18.87 | -15.24 | |||||||
La Vérendrye | PC | Hold | 55.54 | 0.13 | 61.02 | -11.77 | -9.06 | |||||||
Lac du Bonnet | PC | Hold | 60.77 | -0.46 | 58.51 | -7.40 | -11.81 | |||||||
Lagimodière | NDP | Gain | 64.05 | 1.78 | 46.24 | 18.37 | -12.41 | |||||||
Lakeside | PC | Hold | 60.98 | 1.76 | 61.68 | -6.56 | -5.75 | |||||||
McPhillips | NDP | Gain | 54.61 | -2.03 | 47.30 | 10.10 | -2.07 | |||||||
Midland | PC | Hold | 56.95 | -2.32 | 69.38 | -5.63 | -6.34 | |||||||
Morden-Winkler | PC | Hold | 44.32 | -6.87 | 73.47 | -7.39 | 1.63 | |||||||
Notre Dame | NDP | Hold | 37.88 | -2.98 | 75.58 | 10.58 | 5.61 | |||||||
Point Douglas | NDP | Hold | 32.76 | -3.24 | 73.31 | 10.96 | 4.99 | |||||||
Portage la Prairie | PC | Hold | 46.77 | -1.87 | 59.61 | -6.07 | -7.01 | |||||||
Radisson | NDP | Gain | 57.65 | 1.18 | 52.31 | 15.61 | -10.17 | |||||||
Red River North | PC | Hold | 60.47 | -3.49 | 60.35 | 2.38 | -6.20 | |||||||
Riding Mountain | PC | Hold | 57.42 | 1.69 | 63.02 | -2.89 | -7.01 | |||||||
Riel | NDP | Gain | 65.70 | 2.46 | 54.65 | 19.26 | -13.03 | |||||||
River Heights | NDP | Gain | 67.59 | 2.12 | 44.21 | 29.63 | -3.17 | |||||||
Roblin | PC | Hold | 62.54 | 0.71 | 49.72 | -5.47 | -14.02 | |||||||
Rossmere | NDP | Gain | 60.42 | 0.80 | 50.74 | 11.89 | -8.21 | |||||||
Seine River | NDP | Gain | 63.64 | 1.52 | 52.08 | 26.07 | -16.32 | |||||||
Selkirk | PC | Hold | 56.29 | -2.96 | 52.49 | 0.65 | -5.72 | |||||||
Southdale | NDP | Gain | 64.72 | 3.06 | 48.48 | 10.64 | -9.45 | |||||||
Springfield-Ritchot | PC | Hold | 58.30 | -2.27 | 54.89 | -4.59 | -10.16 | |||||||
Spruce Woods | PC | Hold | 56.54 | -0.21 | 61.81 | -6.26 | -7.19 | |||||||
St. Boniface | NDP | Gain | 60.06 | 0.28 | 53.38 | 23.51 | -16.29 | |||||||
St. James | NDP | Hold | 54.68 | -1.11 | 64.82 | 17.56 | 11.36 | |||||||
St. Johns | NDP | Hold | 46.98 | -0.36 | 60.76 | 8.88 | 8.83 | |||||||
St. Vital | NDP | Hold | 56.88 | -3.89 | 61.15 | 16.67 | 11.12 | |||||||
Steinbach | PC | Hold | 48.14 | -4.35 | 74.37 | -7.26 | -7.34 | |||||||
Swan River | PC | Hold | 57.90 | 3.03 | 62.91 | -5.95 | -5.98 | |||||||
The Maples | NDP | Hold | 50.62 | -2.46 | 56.13 | 16.62 | 12.61 | |||||||
The Pas-Kameesak | NDP | Hold | 53.52 | 10.48 | 67.18 | 9.27 | 2.44 | |||||||
Thompson | NDP | Hold | 36.10 | -1.17 | 68.28 | 13.73 | 10.35 | |||||||
Transcona | NDP | Hold | 51.40 | -1.05 | 58.50 | 12.09 | 10.88 | |||||||
Turtle Mountain | PC | Hold | 55.64 | -1.65 | 55.05 | -12.43 | 1.24 | |||||||
Tuxedo | PC | Hold | 59.86 | 1.96 | 40.21 | -7.65 | -3.19 | |||||||
Tyndall Park | Lib | Hold | 49.75 | -6.64 | 54.99 | 0.32 | 2.42 | |||||||
Union Station | NDP | Hold | 42.21 | -1.85 | 70.78 | 18.16 | 12.58 | |||||||
Waverley | NDP | Gain | 53.97 | 2.02 | 44.10 | 15.50 | -11.35 | |||||||
Wolseley | NDP | Hold | 53.77 | -3.19 | 75.31 | 29.28 | 29.47 |
![]() | This section needs to be updated.(November 2023) |
Party in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NDP | PC | Lib | Ind | |||
New Democratic | 30 | 3 | 1 | 34 | ||
Progressive Conservative | 21 | 1 | 22 | |||
Liberal | 1 | 1 | ||||
Total | 22 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 57 |
Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
█ New Democratic | 34 | 22 | 1 | ||
█ Progressive Conservative | 22 | 30 | 5 | ||
█ Liberal | 1 | 4 | 38 | 6 | |
█ Independent | 1 | 2 | |||
█ Keystone | 5 | ||||
█ Green | 4 | 9 | |||
█ Communist | 2 | 3 |
Source | Party | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NDP | PC | Lib | Total | ||
Seats retained | Incumbents returned | 18 | 12 | 1 | 31 |
Open seats held | 10 | 10 | |||
Seats changing hands | Incumbents defeated | 12 | 12 | ||
Open seats gained | 4 | 4 | |||
Total | 34 | 22 | 1 | 57 |
Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly. [45] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.
Constituency | Party | Candidate | Incumbent retiring from the legislature | Won by | Party |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fort Richmond | █ Progressive Conservative | Paramjit Shahi | Sarah Guillemard [26] | Jennifer Chen | █ New Democratic |
Kildonan-River East | █ Progressive Conservative | Alana Vannahme | Cathy Cox [27] | Rachelle Schott | █ New Democratic |
McPhillips | █ Progressive Conservative | Sheilah Restall | Shannon Martin | Jasdeep Devgan | █ New Democratic |
Dauphin | █ Progressive Conservative | Gord Wood | Brad Michaleski | Ron Kostyshyn | █ New Democratic |
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead | ||
Forum Research | Oct 2, 2023 | [p 1] | 41.3% | 44.7% | 12.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 910 | IVR | 3.4% | ||
Research Co. | Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 | [p 2] | 39% | 48% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 600 | Online | 9% | ||
Mainstreet Research | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023 | [p 3] | 41% | 47% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 3.7% | 698 | Smart IVR | 6% | ||
Sovereign North Strategies | Sep 17–19, 2023 | [p 4] | 42.5% | 39.4% | 15.9% | 2.2% | N/A | 3.9% | 852 | Telephone | 3.1% | ||
Angus Reid | Sep 13–19, 2023 | [p 5] | 41% | 47% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 990 | Online | 6% | ||
Probe Research | Sep 7–18, 2023 | [p 6] | 38% | 49% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 11% | ||
Research Co. | Sep 15–17, 2023 | [p 7] | 39% | 41% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 600 | Online | 2% | ||
Counsel Public Affairs | Sep 11–16, 2023 | [p 8] | 39% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 505 | Online | 5% | ||
Mainstreet Research | Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2023 | [p 9] | 43% | 42% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 601 | Smart IVR | 1% | ||
Mainstreet Research | Jul 26–28, 2023 | [p 10] | 42% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 597 | Smart IVR | 4% | ||
Probe Research | May 31 – Jun 13, 2023 | [p 11] | 41% | 41% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | Tie | ||
Angus Reid | May 30 – Jun 3, 2023 | [p 12] | 39% | 44% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 515 | Online | 5% | ||
Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | |||||||||||||
Probe Research | Mar 8–20, 2023 | [p 13] | 38% | 44% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 6% | ||
Mainstreet Research | Jan 24–26, 2023 | [p 14] | 36.2% | 41.5% | 14.6% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 514 | Smart IVR | 5.3% | ||
Probe Research | Nov 22 – Dec 5, 2022 | [p 15] | 35% | 46% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone/Online | 11% | ||
Probe Research | Sep 8–18, 2022 | [p 16] | 37% | 44% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 7% | ||
Angus Reid | Jun 7–13, 2022 | [p 17] | 38% | 40% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 468 | Online | 2% | ||
Probe Research | Jun 1–12, 2022 | [p 18] | 35% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% | ||
Probe Research | Mar 9–21, 2022 | [p 19] | 34% | 44% | 15% | 2% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% | ||
Angus Reid | Mar 10–15, 2022 | [p 20] [p 21] | 39% | 40% | 14% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 475 | Online | 1% | ||
Angus Reid | Jan 7–12, 2022 | [p 22] | 36% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 407 | Online | 6% | ||
Probe Research | Nov 23 – Dec 5, 2021 | [p 23] | 37% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 5% | ||
Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | |||||||||||||
Innovative Research | Sep 24 – Oct 5, 2021 | [p 24] | 41% | 32% | 18% | 5% | 3% | N/A | 678 | Online | 9% | ||
Angus Reid | Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 | [p 25] | 38% | 43% | 11% | 4% | 5% | N/A | 435 | Online | 5% | ||
Probe Research | Sep 7–20, 2021 | [p 26] | 35% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 8% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 7% | ||
Probe Research | Jun 2–11, 2021 | [p 27] | 29% | 47% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 18% | ||
Angus Reid | Jun 2–7, 2021 | [p 28] | 39% | 42% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 4.0% | 504 | Online | 3% | ||
Probe Research | Mar 10–26, 2021 | [p 29] | 36% | 42% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 6% | ||
Probe Research | Nov 24 – Dec 4, 2020 | [p 30] | 37% | 41% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 4% | ||
Angus Reid | Nov 24–30, 2020 | [p 31] | 39% | 40% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 4.8% | 420 | Online | 1% | ||
Probe Research | Sep 8–17, 2020 | [p 32] | 43% | 34% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 9% | ||
EKOS | Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 | [p 33] | 44% | 31% | 12% | 9% | 4% | 2.9% | 1,154 | HD-IVR | 13% | ||
EKOS | Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 | [p 34] | 43% | 27% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 2.4% | 1,691 | HD-IVR | 16% | ||
Probe Research | Jun 2–11, 2020 | [p 35] | 38% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 2% | ||
Innovative Research | May 29 – Jun 3, 2020 | [p 36] | 38% | 26% | 26% | 10% | N/A | N/A | 200 | Online | 12% | ||
Probe Research | Mar 10–24, 2020 | [p 37] | 43% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% | ||
Probe Research | Nov 27 – Dec 10, 2019 | [p 38] | 42% | 36% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 6% | ||
2019 general election | September 10, 2019 | — | 47.1% | 31.4% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 0.6% | — | — | — | 15.7% | ||
Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead | ||||||
PC | NDP | Liberal | Green |
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