2023 Winnipeg South Centre federal by-election

2023 Winnipeg South Centre federal by-election

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Riding of Winnipeg South Centre
Turnout	36.82%
First party Second party Third party   LPC CPC NDP Candidate Ben Carr Damir Stipanovic Julia Riddell Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic Popular vote 14,278 6,100 3,778 Percentage 55.49% 23.70% 14.68% Swing 9.94% 4.11% 5.95%
MP before election Jim Carr Liberal Elected MP Ben Carr Liberal

A by-election was held in the federal riding of Winnipeg South Centre in Manitoba on June 19, 2023, following the death of Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr. ^[1]

The by-election was held on the same day as three others; Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Oxford and Portage—Lisgar. ^[2]

Background

Constituency

The district is an urban constituency based in the city of Winnipeg.

Representation

Winnipeg South Centre has been a reliable Liberal seat since 1988, apart from 2011 to 2015 when it was held by Conservative Joyce Bateman. ^[3]

The riding of Winnipeg South Centre was vacated on December 12, 2022 following the death of Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr. ^[4] Carr had represented the riding since 2015, when he defeated Conservative incumbent Joyce Bateman, and had been battling multiple myeloma and kidney failure since 2019. Carr also defeated Bateman in rematches in 2019 and 2021.

Campaign

Candidates

Jim Carr's son Ben Carr, an educator and former staffer to Mélanie Joly, won the Liberal nomination for the by-election. ^{[5] [6] [7]} Winnipeg city councillor Sherri Rollins briefly ran for the nomination before withdrawing and throwing her support behind Carr. ^{[8] [9]}

The Conservatives nominated Damir Stipanovic, an air traffic controller and member of the Royal Canadian Air Force Reserve. ^[7]

After previously running in the same riding in the 2021 federal election, NDP candidate Julia Riddell, a clinical psychologist, and Green candidate Doug Hemmerling, a local educator, won their respective parties' nominations for the by-election. ^[7]

The People's Party of Canada chose former DJ Tylor Baer to be their candidate. He contested Brandon—Souris for the party in 2021. ^[10]

The Rhinoceros Party chose party leader Sébastien CoRhino to be their candidate. ^[11]

The Longest Ballot Committee chose Winnipeg South Centre as its target for this group of by-elections; the group protests first-past-the-post voting by registering large numbers of independent candidates in one riding in an election or group of by-elections. ^[12] Forty-two people, including the above-mentioned Sébastien CoRhino, ran under its auspices, while Tait Palsson, who was not involved with the group, also ran an independent campaign. The forty-eight candidates in this by-election are the most ever to contest a federal election in Canada. ^[13]

Polling

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	LPC	CPC	NDP	PPC	GPC	Others	Undecided	Margin of Error [1]	Sample Size [2]	Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research	June 14, 2023	HTML	47	28	16	2	2	1	4	±4.7 pp	430	IVR
			49	29	16	2	2	1	—

Results

v t e Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023 : Winnipeg South Centre Death of Jim Carr
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Ben Carr	14,278	55.49	+9.94
	Conservative	Damir Stipanovic	6,100	23.70	-4.11
	New Democratic	Julia Riddell	3,778	14.68	-5.95
	Green	Doug Hemmerling	698	2.71	-0.04
	People's	Tylor Baer	324	1.26	-1.51
	Rhinoceros	Sébastien CoRhino	55	0.21
	Independent	Tait Palsson	52	0.20
	Independent	Jevin David Carroll	36	0.14
	Independent	John Dale	29	0.11
	Independent	Glen MacDonald	27	0.10
	Independent	Connie Lukawski	24	0.09
	Independent	Paul Stewart	22	0.09
	Independent	Patrick Strzalkowski	19	0.07
	Independent	Mark Dejewski	18	0.07
	Independent	Stella Galas	16	0.06
	Independent	Demetrios Karavas	16	0.06
	Independent	Myriam Beaulieu	14	0.05
	Independent	Christopher Clacio	14	0.05
	Independent	Alain Bourgault	13	0.05
	Independent	Martin "Acetaria Caesar" Jubinville	13	0.05
	Independent	Krzysztof Krzywinski	13	0.05
	Independent	Alain Lamontagne	11	0.04
	Independent	Marie-Hélène LeBel	11	0.04
	Independent	Jordan Wong	11	0.04
	Independent	Line Bélanger	10	0.04
	Independent	Andrew Kozakewich	10	0.04
	Independent	Eliana Rosenblum	10	0.04
	Independent	Gerrit Dogger	9	0.03
	Independent	Julie St-Amand	9	0.03
	Independent	Alexandra Engering	8	0.03
	Independent	Anthony Hamel	8	0.03
	Independent	Darcy Justin Vanderwater	8	0.03
	Independent	Roger Sherwood	7	0.03
	Independent	Pascal St-Amand	7	0.03
	Independent	Dji-Pé Frazer	6	0.02
	Independent	Daniel Gagnon	6	0.02
	Independent	Spencer Rocchi	6	0.02
	Independent	Mário Stocco	6	0.02
	Independent	Manon Marie Lili Desbiens	5	0.02
	Independent	Ysack Émile Dupont	5	0.02
	Independent	Yusuf Nasihi	5	0.02
	Independent	Jaël Champagne Gareau	4	0.02
	Independent	Donovan Eckstrom	3	0.01
	Independent	Ryan Huard	2	0.01
	Independent	Lorant Polya	2	0.01
	Independent	Benjamin Teichman	2	0.01
	Independent	Gavin Vanderwater	2	0.01
	Independent	Saleh Waziruddin	1	0.00
Total valid votes			25,733	99.52
Total rejected ballots			125	0.48	-0.26
Turnout			25,858	36.82	-32.79
Eligible voters			70,230
	Liberal hold		Swing		+7.02
Source: Elections Canada [14]

2021 result

v t e 2021 Canadian federal election : Winnipeg South Centre
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Jim Carr	22,214	45.55	+0.54	$84,273.45
	Conservative	Joyce Bateman	13,566	27.82	−1.89	$83,919.18
	New Democratic	Julia Riddell	10,064	20.64	+2.94	$12,522.59
	People's	Chase Wells	1,352	2.77	+1.65	$1,885.74
	Green	Douglas Hemmerling	1,341	2.75	−3.51	$21,799.84
	Communist	Cam Scott	234	0.48	N/A	N/A
Total valid votes/expense limit			48,771	99.26		$106,382.19
Total rejected ballots			364	0.74	+0.22
Turnout			49,135	69.60	-1.37
Eligible voters			70,592
	Liberal hold		Swing		+1.22
Source: Elections Canada [15] [16]

References

1. "Candice Bergen, former interim Conservative leader, resigning from Parliament". CTVNews. February 1, 2023. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
2. "4 federal byelections set for June in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
3. Kives, Bartley (January 2, 2023). "Ben Carr, son of late Liberal MP, mulls following in father's footsteps in Winnipeg South Centre". CBC News .
4. Aiello, Rachel (December 12, 2022). "Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr dies". CTV News. Archived from the original on December 12, 2022. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
5. Kives, Bartley (January 2, 2023). "Ben Carr, son of late Liberal MP, mulls following in father's footsteps in Winnipeg South Centre". CBC News. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
6. "Son of late MP Jim Carr to seek Liberal party nomination to run in Winnipeg riding". CTV News. February 2, 2023. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
7. Kives, Bartley (April 28, 2023). "Candidate field almost set for Winnipeg South Centre byelection". CBC News. Retrieved May 2, 2023.
8. Froese, Ian (January 11, 2023). "Winnipeg city councillor Sherri Rollins seeks federal Liberal nomination in byelection". CBC News. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
9. "Sherri Rollins bows out of bid for Liberal nomination to replace late Winnipeg MP". Global News. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
10. Modified, Colin Slark Posted: Last (August 23, 2021). "Aug 2021: Former DJ, 22, running for People's Party to fight for personal freedoms". Brandon Sun. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
11. Kives, Bartley (September 3, 2021). "Rhino Party charges at broken Liberal promise by signing up independents to run in Manitoba riding". CBC News .
12. Unger, Danton (May 25, 2023). "Group of political activists plan to flood by-election ballot in Winnipeg". CTV News Winnipeg . Retrieved May 28, 2023.
13. Froese, Ian (June 14, 2023). "Voters will choose from record-setting 48 names in Winnipeg South Centre federal byelection ballot". CBC News. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
14. "June 19, 2023, by-elections—Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
15. "forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada . Retrieved December 23, 2022.
16. "Candidate Campaign Returns". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 13, 2022.