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Riding of Oxford | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 39.81% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election was held in the federal riding of Oxford in Ontario on June 19, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie. [1]
The by-election was held on the same day as three others; Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Portage—Lisgar and Winnipeg South Centre. [2]
The electoral district is a mixed rural and urban constituency which covers Oxford County and a small portion of the County of Brant. [3] The seat is generally considered safe for the Conservative Party, [4] having voted Tory in every election since 1953, except for when the right was divided between 1993 and 2004.
The riding of Oxford was vacated on January 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, who had held the seat since 2004.
Arpan Khanna, the party's national outreach chair and 2019 candidate in Brampton North [5] defeated Woodstock city-county councillor Deb Tait, MacKenzie's daughter and former ministerial staffer Rick Roth for the Conservative nomination. [6] [7] Gerrit Van Dorland, executive assistant to Cypress Hills—Grasslands MP Jeremy Patzer was running for the nomination until he was disqualified by the Conservatives over a dispute about whether he disclosed information to the party. [8] [9] In February 2023, MacKenzie accused the party of supporting Khanna, which he argues is a violation of the party nomination rules based on the Conservative's code of conduct, during the race. [10] [11]
Running for the Liberals is local realtor, former educator, and past Woodstock mayoral candidate David Hilderley. [12] [13] [14] Citing concerns with the Conservative nomination process, previous MP Dave MacKenzie endorsed Hilderley in April 2023. [12]
Western University professor Cody Groat defeated Matthew Chambers, the party candidate for the riding in the 2019 and 2021 elections for the NDP nomination. [15] [16]
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | CPC | LPC | NDP | PPC | GPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error [1] | Sample Size [2] | Polling Method [3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 | HTML | 36 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | ±4.5 pp | 473 | IVR |
| 38 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 7 | — |
| Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023 : Oxford Resignation of Dave MacKenzie | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | ||||
| Conservative | Arpan Khanna | 16,688 | 42.92 | -4.13 | ||||
| Liberal | David Hilderley | 14,164 | 36.43 | +15.90 | ||||
| New Democratic | Cody Groat | 4,053 | 10.42 | -7.86 | ||||
| Christian Heritage | John Markus | 1,672 | 4.30 | +3.53 | ||||
| People's | Wendy Martin | 1,278 | 3.29 | -7.36 | ||||
| Green | Cheryle Baker | 854 | 2.20 | -0.52 | ||||
| Independent | John The Engineer Turmel | 171 | 0.44 | |||||
| Total valid votes | 38,880 | 99.38 | ||||||
| Total rejected ballots | 243 | 0.62 | +0.01 | |||||
| Turnout | 39,123 | 39.81 | -25.08 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 98,270 | |||||||
| Conservative hold | Swing | -10.01 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada [17] | ||||||||
| 2021 Canadian federal election | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Conservative | Dave MacKenzie | 29,146 | 47.05 | -1.09 | ||||
| Liberal | Elizabeth Quinto | 12,720 | 20.53 | +1.24 | ||||
| New Democratic | Matthew Chambers | 11,325 | 18.28 | -1.93 | ||||
| People's | Wendy Martin | 6,595 | 10.65 | +7.73 | ||||
| Green | Bob Reid | 1,683 | 2.72 | -5.12 | ||||
| Christian Heritage | Allen Scovil | 479 | 0.77 | -0.85 | ||||
| Total valid votes | 61,948 | 99.39 | ||||||
| Total rejected ballots | 379 | 0.61 | -0.25 | |||||
| Turnout | 62,327 | 64.89 | -1.04 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 96,055 | |||||||
| Conservative hold | Swing | -1.17 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada [18] | ||||||||
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