By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament

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By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament
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By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament may be held to fill vacancies in the House of Commons of Canada between the 2021 federal election and the 45th federal election. The 44th Canadian Parliament has existed since 2021 with the membership of its House of Commons having been determined by the results of the 44th Canadian federal election held on September 20, 2021. The Liberal Party of Canada has a minority government during this Parliament, supported by the New Democratic Party in a confidence-and-supply agreement. [1]

Contents

One by-election has been held during the 44th Parliament, following the resignation of Sven Spengemann (Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore), to take on a role at the United Nations. [2] Further by-elections are expected in Winnipeg South Centre, left vacant following the death of Liberal MP Jim Carr on December 12, 2022, in Calgary Heritage, following the resignation of Conservative MP Bob Benzen on December 31, 2022 in order to return to the private sector, in Oxford, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie on January 28, 2023, and in Portage—Lisgar, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen on February 1, 2023. [3] [4] [5] [6]

The writ for a by-election must be dropped no sooner than 11 days and no later than 180 days after the chief electoral officer is officially notified of a vacancy via a warrant issued by the Speaker. Under the Canada Elections Act, the minimum length of a campaign is 36 days between dropping the writ and election day. [7]

Overview

By-electionDateIncumbentPartyWinnerPartyCauseRetained
Portage—Lisgar TBD Candice Bergen Conservative Resignation
Oxford TBD Dave MacKenzie Conservative Resignation
Calgary Heritage TBD Bob Benzen Conservative Resigned to return to the private sector
Winnipeg South Centre TBD Jim Carr Liberal Death (multiple myeloma and kidney failure)
Mississauga—Lakeshore December 12, 2022 Sven Spengemann Liberal Charles Sousa Liberal Resigned to accept a position with the United Nations Yes

December 12, 2022 by-election

Mississauga—Lakeshore

The riding of Mississauga—Lakeshore was vacated on May 27, 2022 following the resignation of Liberal MP Sven Spengemann to accept a position with the United Nations. [2] Spengemann had represented the riding since 2015, when he defeated Conservative incumbent Stella Ambler.

Running for the Liberals is former MPP Charles Sousa, who represented the area provincially from 2007 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, including as Minister of Finance from 2013 to 2018. [8] [9] [10] Alex Crombie, a former Queen's Park staffer and son of Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie, was seen as a potential candidate prior to Sousa's nomination. [11]

Running for the Conservatives is Ron Chhinzer, a police officer. [9] Michael Ras, who finished second to Spengemann in 2021, considered running for the nomination before declining. [8]

The NDP has nominated Julia Cole, who ran for the seat's provincial counterpart in the provincial election earlier in the year, while running for the Greens is Mary Kidnew, a past president of the Hillcrest Ratepayers Association. [9] [12]

Rhinoceros Party leader Sébastien CoRhino will contest the by-election. [13] As well, the Rhinoceros Party organized a protest against the Trudeau government's abandonment of electoral reform in 2017 by running thirty-two[ citation needed ] independent candidates, breaking their own record for most candidates nominated in a single riding in Canada, previously set in the riding of Saint Boniface—Saint Vital in the 2021 Canadian federal election. [14]

Canadian federal by-election, December 12, 2022 : Mississauga—Lakeshore
Resignation of Sven Spengemann
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
Liberal Charles Sousa 12,76651.45+6.50
Conservative Ron Chhinzer9,21537.14-1.54
New Democratic Julia Kole1,2314.96-4.79
Green Mary Kidnew7923.19+0.94
People's Khaled Al-Sudani2931.18-3.03
Independent Sean Carson480.19
Independent Charles Currie440.18
Independent Patrick Strzalkowski380.15
Independent Peter House310.12
Independent Mélodie Anderson290.12
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino240.10-0.07
Independent Conrad Lukawski230.09
Independent Adam Smith230.09
Independent Stephen Davis210.08
Independent Marie-Hélène LeBel170.07
Independent Eliana Rosenblum170.07
Independent Myriam Beaulieu160.06
Independent Roger Sherwood140.06
Independent John The Engineer Turmel 140.06
Independent Jevin David Carroll120.05
Independent Spencer Rocchi120.05
Independent Tomas Szuchewycz120.05
Independent Julie St-Amand110.04
Independent Mark Dejewski110.04
Independent Julian Selody100.04
Independent Ben Teichman100.04
Independent Mylène Bonneau90.04
Independent Kerri Hildebrandt90.04
Independent Line Bélanger80.03
Independent Alexandra Engering80.03
Independent Samuel Jubinville80.03
Independent Jean-Denis Parent Boudreault70.03
Independent Daniel Gagnon70.03
Independent Darcy Justin Vanderwater60.02
Independent Donovan Eckstrom50.02
Independent Donald Gagnon50.02
Independent Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville30.01
Independent Ysack Dupont20.01
Independent Pascal St-Amand20.01
Independent Alain Lamontagne10.00
Total valid votes24,814
Total rejected ballots1350.54
Turnout24,94927.76
Eligible voters89,863
Liberal hold Swing +4.02
Source: Elections Canada [15] [16]

Polling

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OthersUndecidedMargin
of Error [1]
Sample
Size [2]
Polling Method [3]
Mainstreet Research October 27, 2022 PDF 38.635.56.04.11.11.513.2±4.3 pp521IVR

Upcoming by-elections

Winnipeg South Centre

The riding of Winnipeg South Centre was vacated on December 12, 2022 following the death of Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr. [3] Carr had represented the riding since 2015, when he defeated Conservative incumbent Joyce Bateman, and had been battling multiple myeloma and kidney failure since 2019. Carr also defeated Bateman in rematches in 2019 and 2021.

Winnipeg city councillor Sherri Rollins and Carr's son Ben, an educator and former staffer to Mélanie Joly, are running for the Liberal nomination. [17] [18] [19]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Winnipeg South Centre
Death of Jim Carr
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal
Conservative
New Democratic
People's
Green
Communist
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Calgary Heritage

The riding of Calgary Heritage was vacated on December 31, 2022 following the October 20 announcement from Conservative MP Bob Benzen that he would resign his seat by the end of the year in order to return to the private sector. Benzen had held the seat since a 2017 by-election in which he was elected to replace former Prime Minister and former Conservative leader Stephen Harper. [4] [20]

Former parliamentary staffer Quinn Heffron and Shuvaloy Majumdar, global director for Harper's international consulting firm Harper & Associates, are running for the Conservative nomination. [21] [22]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Calgary Heritage
Resignation of Bob Benzen
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative
New Democratic
Liberal
People's
Green
Maverick
Rhinoceros
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Oxford

The riding of Oxford was vacated on January 28, 2023 following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, who had held the seat since 2004. [5]

Candidates for the Conservative nomination include: Woodstock city-county councillor Deb Tait, MacKenzie's daughter; Arpan Khanna, the party's national outreach chair and 2019 candidate in Brampton North; former ministerial staffer Rick Roth; and Gerrit Van Dorland, executive assistant to Cypress Hills—Grasslands MP Jeremy Patzer. [22] [23]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Oxford
Resignation of Dave MacKenzie
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative
Liberal
New Democratic
People's
Green
Christian Heritage
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Portage—Lisgar

The riding of Portage—Lisgar was vacated on February 1, 2023 following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen. [24] Bergen, a cabinet minister in the government of Stephen Harper and the interim leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from February to September 2022, had held the seat since 2008.

Declared candidates for the Conservative nomination include: Rejeanne Caron, the party's 2019 candidate in Saint Boniface—Saint Vital and 2021 candidate in Elmwood—Transcona; Morden-Winkler MLA and former Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba cabinet minister Cameron Friesen; [25] Bergen's former campaign manager Branden Leslie; Liz Reimer, a Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba staffer and former assistant to Friesen; and Lawrence Toet, the MP for Elmwood—Transcona from 2011 to 2015 [6] [26]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Portage—Lisgar
Resignation of Candice Bergen
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative
People's
New Democratic
Liberal
Christian Heritage
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Notes

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