44th Manitoba general election

44th Manitoba general election

←  2023 On or before October 5, 2027 45th →
←  outgoing members
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority
PC LIB Leader Wab Kinew Wayne Ewasko (interim) Cindy Lamoureux (interim) Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal Leader since September 16, 2017 January 18, 2024 October 17, 2023 Leader's seat Fort Rouge Lac du Bonnet Tyndall Park Last election 34 seats, 45.63% 22 seats, 41.86% 1 seat, 10.63% Current seats 33 21 1 Seats needed 8 28
Incumbent Premier Wab Kinew New Democratic

The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. ^[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027. ^[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

Current standings

43rd Manitoba Legislature – Movement in seats held up to the election (2023-present)

Party		2023	Gain/(loss) due to			Current
			Resignation or death of MLA	Removed from caucus	By-election
	New Democratic	34	(1)	(1)	1	33
	Progressive Conservative	22	(1)			21
	Liberal	1				1
	Independent	–		1		1
Total		57	(2)	–	1	56

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2023–present)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Tuxedo	May 6, 2024	Heather Stefanson	█  PC	Resignation [3]	July 8, 2024 [4]	Carla Compton	█  New Democratic
Fort Garry	September 16, 2024	Mark Wasyliw	█  New Democratic	Removed from caucus [5]			█  Independent
Transcona	January 14, 2025	Nello Altomare	█  New Democratic	Died in office	TBD

2023

• October 3: The 2023 Manitoba general election is held, resulting in a majority for the New Democratic Party. The Progressive Conservative Party becomes the Official Opposition, and the Liberal Party is reduced to one seat. PC leader Heather Stefanson announces her intent to resign once her successor is chosen, while she will remain as MLA for Tuxedo. Dougald Lamont resigns as Liberal leader on election night after he loses his seat of Saint Boniface. ^[6]
• October 17: Cindy Lamoureux, MLA for Tyndall Park, is selected as interim leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party. ^[7]
• October 18: The NDP Cabinet is sworn in. ^[8]

2024

• January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
• April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election will be held to fill the seat on June 18.
• June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election, gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
• September 16: Mark Wasyliw, MLA for Fort Garry, is removed from the NDP caucus and will sit as an independent.

2025

• January 14: Education and Early Childhood Learning Minister and MLA for Transcona Nello Altomare dies in office.

Opinion polling

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firm	Dates conducted	Source	NDP	PC	Liberal	Keystone	Green	Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
Probe Research	Nov 26 – Dec 10, 2024	[p 1]	53%	34%	6%	2%	2%	2%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	19%
Probe Research	Sep 5–15, 2024	[p 2]	56%	34%	4%	3%	1%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	22%
Probe Research	May 28 – Jun 9, 2024	[p 3] [p 4]	51%	38%	6%	1%	1%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	13%
Probe Research	Mar 5–18, 2024	[p 5] [p 6]	49%	37%	8%	1%	2%	2%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	12%
Probe Research	Nov 22 – Dec 1, 2023	[p 7] [p 8]	51%	38%	7%	1%	2%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	13%
2023 general election	October 3, 2023	[p 9]	45.63%	41.86%	10.63%	0.77%	0.74%	0.37%	—	—	—	3.77%
Polling firm	Dates conducted	Source						Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
			NDP	PC	Liberal	Keystone	Green

References

1. Elections Act , CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
2. CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
3. "Former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson resigning as MLA". CBC News . April 25, 2024.
4. "2024 Tuxedo By-election". Elections Manitoba . Retrieved June 18, 2024.
5. "MLA Mark Wasyliw removed immediately from NDP caucus, claims Premier Kinew is a 'bully'". CBC News . September 16, 2024.
6. Hoye, Bryce (October 3, 2023). "Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
7. The Canadian Press (October 17, 2023). "Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
8. Petz, Sarah (October 18, 2023). "Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier". CBC News. Retrieved October 18, 2023.

Opinion poll sources

1. "Kinew Government Ends 2024 On A High Note (Dec. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
2. "Honeymoon Continues for Manitoba's NDP (Sept. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
3. "NDP Extends Support Within Winnipeg, Across Manitoba (June 2024 Omnibus)". Probe Research. June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
4. "Omni 2406 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
5. "March 2024 Manitoba Politics". Probe Research. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
6. "Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
7. "Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey" (PDF). Probe Research. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
8. "Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
9. Official Results