44th Manitoba general election

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44th Manitoba general election
Flag of Manitoba.svg
←  2023 On or before October 5, 202745th →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
 
Wab Kinew October 2023 (cropped).jpg
PCLIB
Leader Wab Kinew Wayne Ewasko (interim) Cindy Lamoureux (interim)
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 January 18, 2024October 17, 2023
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Lac du Bonnet Tyndall Park
Last election34 seats, 45.63%22 seats, 41.86%1 seat, 10.63%
Current seats34211
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 8Increase2.svg 28
Incumbent Premier

Wab Kinew
New Democratic



The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

Contents

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. [1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027. [2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

Current standings

43rd Manitoba Legislature – Movement in seats held up to the election (2023-present)
Party2023Gain/(loss) due toCurrent
Resignation
as MLA		Removed
from caucus		By-election
New Democratic 34(1)134
Progressive Conservative 22(1)21
Liberal 11
Independent –11
Total57(1)–157

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2023–present)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Tuxedo May 6, 2024 Heather Stefanson █  PC Resignation [3] July 8, 2024 [4] Carla Compton █  New Democratic
Fort Garry September 16, 2024 Mark Wasyliw █  New Democratic Removed from caucus [5] █  Independent

2023

2024

Opinion polling

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firmDates conductedSource NDP PC Liberal Keystone Green Others Margin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
Probe ResearchSep 5–15, 2024 [p 1] 56%34%4%3%1%1%3.1%1,000mixed22%
Probe ResearchMay 28 – Jun 9, 2024 [p 2] [p 3] 51%38%6%1%1%1%3.1%1,000mixed13%
Probe ResearchMar 5–18, 2024 [p 4] [p 5] 49%37%8%1%2%2%3.1%1,000mixed12%
Probe ResearchNov 22 – Dec 1, 2024 [p 6] [p 7] 51%38%7%1%2%1%3.1%1,000mixed13%
2023 general election October 3, 2023 [p 8] 45.63%41.86%10.63%0.77%0.74%0.37%———3.77%
Polling firmDates conductedSource Others Margin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
NDP PC Liberal Keystone Green

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References

  1. ↑ Elections Act , CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  2. ↑ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  3. ↑ "Former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson resigning as MLA". CBC News . April 25, 2024.
  4. ↑ "2024 Tuxedo By-election". Elections Manitoba . Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  5. ↑ "MLA Mark Wasyliw removed immediately from NDP caucus, claims Premier Kinew is a 'bully'". CBC News . September 16, 2024.
  6. ↑ Hoye, Bryce (October 3, 2023). "Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  7. ↑ The Canadian Press (October 17, 2023). "Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  8. ↑ Petz, Sarah (October 18, 2023). "Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier". CBC News. Retrieved October 18, 2023.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "Honeymoon Continues for Manitoba's NDP (Sept. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  2. ↑ "NDP Extends Support Within Winnipeg, Across Manitoba (June 2024 Omnibus)". Probe Research. June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  3. ↑ "Omni 2406 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  4. ↑ "March 2024 Manitoba Politics". Probe Research. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey" (PDF). Probe Research. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  7. ↑ "Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  8. ↑ Official Results
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