32nd Alberta general election

32nd Alberta general election

←  2023 On or before October 18, 2027
←  outgoing members
All 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta 44 seats needed for a majority
AB Leader Danielle Smith Naheed Nenshi Lindsay Amantea (interim) Party United Conservative New Democratic Alberta Party [a] Leader since October 6, 2022 June 22, 2024 April 14, 2024 Leader's seat Brooks-Medicine Hat Edmonton-Strathcona Running in TBD Last election 49 seats, 52.56% 38 seats, 44.02% 0 seats, 0.71% Current seats 47 38 2 Seats needed 6
Incumbent Premier Danielle Smith United Conservative

The 32nd Alberta general election will elect members of the Legislative Assembly to serve in the 32nd Alberta Legislature. The Election Act requires that the election be held on October 18, 2027, but it may be called earlier.

In December 2024, the Electoral Boundaries Commission was mandated to propose new boundaries for 89 ridings, an increase from 87. If this work is completed and approved before the 31st Legislature is dissolved, the election will be with these new boundaries.

Date of the election

Under the fixed-date provisions of Alberta's Election Act, "election day for a general election shall be the third Monday in October in the 4th calendar year following the election day of the most recent general election". ^[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the next election is scheduled for October 18, 2027. However, the Election Act is subject to the powers of the lieutenant governor of Alberta to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

Timeline

2023

• May 29: The United Conservative Party (UCP) wins a majority government in the 31st Alberta general election, with the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) forming the Official Opposition. No other parties win seats in the election. ^[2]
• June 9: The UCP Cabinet is sworn in. ^[3]
• June 20: Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper is elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly. ^[4]
• September 18: Jordan Wilkie resigns as Green Party leader. ^{[5] [6]}
• October 15: Barry Morishita resigns as Alberta Party leader. ^{[7] [8]}

2024

• January 16: Rachel Notley announces intention to resign as NDP leader before the next election. She will remain as leader until a leadership race chooses a successor. ^[9]
• May 30: Bill 21 receives royal assent, changing the next fixed election date to October 18, 2027. ^[10]
• June 22: Naheed Nenshi is elected leader of the Alberta NDP. ^[11]
• July 1: Shannon Phillips resigns as MLA for Lethbridge-West, triggering a by-election. ^[12]
• October 9: Jennifer Johnson, who appeared on the ballot as a UCP candidate in the last provincial election but was disavowed by the party during the campaign due to controversial comments comparing transgender children to faeces, is returned back to the UCP caucus. ^[13]
• November 20: By-election for the riding of Lethbridge-West called for December 18. ^[14]
• December 5: Bill 31 receives royal assent, allowing the Electoral Boundaries Commission to add 2 more seats in the next redistribution. ^[15]
• December 18: The 2024 Lethbridge-West provincial by-election is held, with the NDP's Rob Miyashiro elected. ^[16]
• December 30: Rachel Notley resigns as MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona, triggering a by-election. ^[17]

2025

• January 23: Naheed Nenshi acclaimed as Alberta NDP's by-election candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona. ^[18]
• March 7: Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair is removed from the UCP Caucus over comments made criticizing the budget. ^[19]
• March 25: Rod Loyola resigns as MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie, triggering a by-election. ^[20]
• April 16: Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie is removed from the UCP Caucus after publishing a letter alleging the health minister withheld information from cabinet relating to the Alberta Health Services board of directors. ^[21]
• May 13: MLA Ric McIver resigns his position as Minister of Municipal Affairs ^[22] and is elected to the position of Speaker of the House, following Nathan Cooper's resignation as speaker. ^[23]
• May 22: Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper resigns his seat. ^{[24] [25]}
• June 23: By-elections are held in the ridings of Edmonton-Strathcona, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Edmonton-Ellerslie. ^[26] The NDP and UCP held their respective seats.
• August 27: The Alberta Party votes to rebrand as the Progressive Conservative Party, pending confirmation from Elections Alberta.

Opinion polls

Overall Polling with a local regression (LOESS) trend line for each party and a monthly average.

Pollster	Client	Dates conducted	Source	UCP	NDP	Green	Alberta	Liberal	WLC	WIP	RPA	Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
Leger	N/A	May 23–25, 2025	[p 1]	48%	34%	2%	2%	9%	<1%	—	2%	2%	3.04%	1,040	Online	14%
Abacus Data	N/A	May 15–21, 2025	[p 2]	58%	32%	—	—	—	—	—	—	10%	5.0%	400	Online	26%
Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research	CBC News	May 7–21, 2025	[p 3] [p 4]	52%	38%	1%	1%	3%	—	<1%	—	4%	2.8%	1,200	Telephone	14%
Environics	Alberta Federation of Labour	Apr 2–14, 2025	[p 5]	43%	47%	—	6%	—	—	—	—	4%	N/A	1,003	Online	4%
Mainstreet Research	N/A	Mar 18, 2025	[p 6]	51%	39%	2%	—	3%	—	1%	—	3%	2.8%	1,228	Smart IVR	12%
Leger	N/A	Jan 24–26, 2025	[p 7]	51%	36%	2%	3%	5%	1%	—	—	2%	3.1%	1,002	Online	15%
Cardinal Research	N/A	Sep 17–28, 2024	[p 8]	50%	43%	2%	1%	—	—	—	—	4%	2.5%	1,553	Telephone	7%
Leger	N/A	Aug 2–5, 2024	[p 9]	48%	40%	3%	4%	3%	2%	—	—	2%	3.1%	1,005	Online	8%
Sovereign North Strategies	Western Standard	Jul 6–11, 2024	[p 10] [p 11]	47%	46%	1%	4%	—	—	2%	—	—	2.4%	2,861	Telephone	1%
Abacus Data	N/A	Jun 25–28, 2024	[p 12]	54%	40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6%	3.31%	1,000	Online	14%
		June 22, 2024	Naheed Nenshi elected leader of the Alberta NDP.
Leger	N/A	May 22–25, 2024	[p 13]	47%	43%	—	6%	—	—	—	—	4%	3.1%	1,009	Online	4%
Leger	N/A	Mar 22–24, 2024	[p 14]	46%	44%	1%	4%	1%	1%	—	—	2%	3.1%	1,002	Online	2%
Abacus Data	N/A	Mar 14–21, 2024	[p 15]	55%	40%	—	2%	—	—	—	—	2%	3.1%	1,000	Online	15%
Pallas Data	N/A	Mar 12–13, 2024	[p 16]	52%	45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	3%	3.3%	868	IVR	7%
Leger	N/A	Mar 8–11, 2024	[p 17] [p 18]	49%	41%	—	6%	—	—	—	—	4%	3.1%	1,001	Online	8%
Leger	N/A	Feb 9–12, 2024	[p 19]	49%	42%	—	5%	—	—	—	—	4%	3.1%	1,002	Online	7%
Leger	N/A	Jan 19–22, 2024	[p 20]	51%	40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9%	3.1%	1,001	Online	11%
Leger	N/A	Jan 12–15, 2024	[p 21]	50%	43%	—	3%	—	—	—	—	4%	3.1%	1,012	Online	7%
Angus Reid	N/A	Nov 24 – Dec 1, 2023	[p 22] [p 23]	53%	40%	—	3%	2%	—	—	—	1%	5%	392	Online	13%
Leger	N/A	Oct 27–30, 2023	[p 24]	46%	47%	—	5%	—	—	—	—	2%	3.1%	1,001	Online	1%
Leger	N/A	Sep 15–18, 2023	[p 25]	49%	39%	2%	4%	3%	1%	—	—	2%	3.1%	1,001	Online	10%
2023 general election		May 29, 2023		52.63%	44.05%	0.76%	0.71%	0.24%	0.24%	0.05%	0.01%	1.31%	—	—	—	8.58%

Notes

1. The party has announced its intent to rebrand as the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party pending approval by Elections Alberta

References

1. "Alberta's Next Election". Elections Alberta . Archived from the original on June 9, 2024. Retrieved June 9, 2024.
2. "Alberta Votes 2023". CBC News . Retrieved June 23, 2025.
3. "Premier Smith appoints new Alberta cabinet with many familiar faces in different portfolios". CTV News. June 9, 2023. Archived from the original on June 23, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
4. "'Did a remarkable job': Cooper reelected as Speaker in Alberta legislature". CTV News. June 20, 2023. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
5. "Final Message from Jordan Wilkie as Leader of the Green Party of Alberta". Facebook . Green Party of Alberta. September 18, 2023. Archived from the original on October 15, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
6. "Jordan Wilkie". CTV News Edmonton . Bell Media. Archived from the original on October 5, 2023. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
7. "THE ALBERTA PARTY POLITICAL ASSOCIATION ANNOUNCES THE RESIGNATION OF LEADER BARRY MORISHITA". Alberta Party. Archived from the original on November 9, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
8. "Barry Morishita resigns as leader of seatless Alberta Party". CTV Edmonton. November 8, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
9. Mertz, Emily (January 16, 2024). "Former Alberta premier Rachel Notley stepping down as NDP leader". Global News. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
10. "Bill 21: Emergency Statutes Amendment Act, 2024". Legislative Assembly of Alberta . Retrieved June 9, 2024.
11. "Former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi named Alberta NDP leader in landslide victory | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
12. "Shannon Phillips stepping down as Lethbridge-West MLA". CTV Calgary. June 10, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
13. "Alberta politician who compared transgender kids to feces rejoins UCP caucus". The Globe and Mail. October 9, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
14. "Lethbridge-West byelection set for Dec. 18". CBC Calgary. November 20, 2024. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
15. "Bill 31: Justice Statutes Amendment Act, 2024". Legislative Assembly of Alberta . Retrieved January 9, 2025.
16. "Lethbridge-West byelection results: NDP claim victory, Rob Miyashiro to become MLA". CBC News . Retrieved June 23, 2025.
17. Snowdon, Wallis. "Former Albert NDP premier Rachel Notley to resign as MLA". CBC News . Retrieved June 23, 2025.
18. "Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi acclaimed as party's candidate for Edmonton-Strathcona". Global News . Retrieved January 24, 2025.
19. "Rural Alberta MLA booted from UCP caucus for refusing to support budget | Globalnews.ca". globalnews.ca. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
20. Johnson, Lisa (March 25, 2025). "Longtime Edmonton Alberta NDP MLA is resigning his provincial seat". Edmonton Journal . The Canadian Press . Retrieved March 27, 2025.
21. French, Janet. "United Conservative Party expels MLA who pushed for public probe of health contracting". CBC News . Retrieved April 16, 2025.
22. "Ric McIver voted in as new Alberta legislature Speaker".
23. Climenhaga, David (May 8, 2025). "Nathan Cooper, the Alberta Legislature's Speaker, set to move to Washington D.C. as provincial trade representative". Alberta Politics. Retrieved May 29, 2025.
24. "Nathan Cooper". Legislative Assembly of Alberta . Retrieved May 27, 2025.
25. Singleton, Dan (May 25, 2025). "Premier Danielle Smith discusses separation, pension plan in Olds town hall-style meeting". The Albertan. Great West Media . Retrieved May 27, 2025.
26. Lepine, Hannah. "Voters go to the polls in three Alberta byelections". CTV News . Retrieved June 23, 2025.

Opinion poll sources

1. "Government of Alberta Report Card: June 2025" (PDF). Leger. June 12, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
2. Coletto, David (June 5, 2025). "Is Alberta Really Leaving Canada? What Canadians and Albertans Think About the Prospect of Alberta Sovereignty". Abacus Data. Retrieved June 6, 2025.
3. DeCillia, Brooks (May 28, 2025). "Poll suggests Alberta voters' honeymoon with Danielle Smith and UCP endures". CBC News . Retrieved May 28, 2025.
4. "CBC Calgary Road Ahead Poll - Leader Impressions and Vote Intention -" (PDF). Janet Brown Opinion Research. Retrieved May 29, 2025.
5. "PUBLIC OPINION ON WORKERS AGENDA" (PDF). afl.org. April 17, 2025. Retrieved June 1, 2025.
6. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Alberta" (PDF). Mainstreet Research . March 24, 2025. Retrieved April 12, 2025.
7. "Government of Alberta Report Card January 2025" (PDF). Leger. February 5, 2025. Retrieved February 6, 2025.
8. "Alberta Provincial Polling September 17-28, 2024". Cardinal Research. October 3, 2024. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
9. "Government of Alberta Report Card August 2024" (PDF). Leger. August 13, 2024. Retrieved August 16, 2024.
10. "Alberta – Province Wide Survey of Decided Voters". Sovereign North Strategies. July 19, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
11. Polczer, Shaun (July 18, 2024). "EXCLUSIVE: Poll says Nenshi would be premier if election held tomorrow". Western Standard . Retrieved July 23, 2024.
12. Coletto, David; Sheppard, Eddie (July 4, 2024). "Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 14-points post-Nenshi leadership victory". Abacus Data . Retrieved July 8, 2024.
13. "Alberta May Polling" (PDF). Leger. May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
14. "Government of Alberta Report Card: April 2024" (PDF). Leger Marketing. April 4, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
15. "Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 15-points". Abacus Data. March 27, 2024. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
16. "Pallas Alberta Poll: UCP 52, NDP 45". Pallas Data. March 18, 2024. Archived from the original on March 18, 2024. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
17. Kaufmann, Bill (March 14, 2024). "Nenshi's leadership would boost voter support for Alberta NDP: poll". Calgary Herald . Postmedia Network. Archived from the original on March 14, 2024. Retrieved March 14, 2024.
18. "Alberta Omni Report – March 2024" (PDF). Leger Marketing. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 15, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
19. "Legislation on Gender Affirming Care for Children & Polling: Survey of Albertans" (PDF). Leger. February 15, 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 17, 2024. Retrieved February 17, 2024.
20. "Changes to the NDP in Alberta: Alberta Omni Report" (PDF). Leger. January 26, 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 27, 2024. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
21. "Alberta Vote Intentions: Alberta Omni Report" (PDF). Leger. January 19, 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
22. "Alberta Spotlight: Split over health care restructuring, most blame lack of resources for current challenges". Angus Reid Institute . December 7, 2023. Archived from the original on December 16, 2023. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
23. "2023.12.06_Alberta_Only.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute . Archived (PDF) from the original on December 12, 2023. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
24. "Alberta Vote Intentions" (PDF). Leger. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
25. "Government of Alberta Report Card" (PDF). Leger. October 5, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2023. Retrieved October 5, 2023.

External links

• Government of Alberta
• Elections Alberta