45th Ontario general election

Last updated

45th Ontario general election
Flag of Ontario.svg
  2025 On or before June 7, 2029 (2029-06-07)

124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Doug Ford at Building Faster Fund announcement 2024-03-22 02 (cropped).jpg Marit Stiles - May 18, 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election80 seats, 42.97%27 seats, 18.55%
Current seats7927
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 36

  Bonnie Crombie Centennial Park Aug 2022 (cropped).jpg Gpo-mike-schreiner-headshot-2021-bricks (cropped).jpg
Leader Bonnie Crombie
(outgoing)
Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since December 2, 2023 November 15, 2009
Leader's seatNone Guelph
Last election14 seats, 29.95%2 seats, 4.83%
Current seats142
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 49Increase2.svg 61

Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



The 45th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 7, 2029. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election, [1] unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Ontario.

Contents

Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario

PartyParty leaderSeats
2025 Current
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 8079
New Democratic Marit Stiles 2727
Liberal Bonnie Crombie 1414
Green Mike Schreiner 22
  Independent 12
Total124124

Timeline

2025

Ridings

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 [4] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, [5] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. [6] [7] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017. [8]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario was allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the 2025 provincial election. [9]

Ontario does not have legislation in place for a scheduled review of electoral districts and boundaries, and any changes to boundaries would require new legislation. [10]

Seat changes

44th Parliament of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2025–present)
Party2025Gain/(loss) due topresent
Resignation
as MPP
Resignation
from caucus
ExpulsionByelection
gain
Byelection
hold
Progressive Conservative 80(1)79
New Democratic 2727
Liberal 1414
Green 22
Independent 112
Total124124
Changes in seats held since February 27, 2025
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Sault Ste. Marie September 22, 2025 Chris Scott [11]   PC Expelled from caucus.  Independent

    Opinion polls

    Graphical Summary

    Opinion Polling for the 45th Ontario General Election Opinion Polls of Ontario's 44th Parliament.png
    Opinion Polling for the 45th Ontario General Election

    Table of Polls

    Polling firmLast date
    of polling
    Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Margin of errorSample sizePolling typeLead
    Angus ReidSeptember 5, 2025 [p 1] 45222546±3%935Online20
    Pallas DataSeptember 4, 2025 [p 2] 45172675±3.1%1,026IVR19
    Abacus DataAugust 19, 2025 [p 3] 53122753±3.04%1,037Online26
    Liaison StrategiesAugust 14, 2025 [p 4] 44153533±3.4%800Telephone9
    Abacus DataJuly 15, 2025 [p 5] 50132863±3.1%1,000Online22
    Pallas DataJune 29, 2025 [p 6] 43212962±3%1,080IVR14
    Mainstreet ResearchJune 26, 2025 [p 7] 41173237±3.2%923Smart IVR9
    Abacus DataJune 5, 2025 [p 8] 49142854±3.1%1,000Online21
    LegerMay 25, 2025 [p 9] 45153253±3.1%1,025Online13
    Liaison StrategiesMay 9, 2025 [p 10] 46133623±3.09%1,000IVR10
    Campaign Research [a] March 26, 2025 [p 11] 46182484±2.2%1,672Online22
    2025 election February 27, 202542.9718.5529.954.833.7013.02

    Notes

    1. Campaign Research is an internal PC Party polling firm led by Nick Kouvalis. [12]

    References

    1. Ferguson, Rob (October 19, 2016). "Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
    2. Smith Cross, Jessica; Cornwell, Steve (September 14, 2025). "BREAKING: Bonnie Crombie to step down as Ontario Liberal Party leader". The Trillium.
    3. https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/marit-stiles-survives-leadership-review-with-68-per-cent-support-vows-to-hold-doug-ford/article_f17304f3-e008-4304-a07b-fb982ef2e653.html
    4. Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 , S.O. 2015, c. 31
    5. as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016 , S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
    6. "Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission". August 8, 2017. Archived from the original on March 19, 2018. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
    7. Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017). "Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous". Toronto Star . Archived from the original on December 6, 2017. Retrieved December 10, 2017.
    8. Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017 , S.O. 2017, c. 18
    9. Benzie, Robert (August 1, 2024). "Ford government to break with tradition and not adopt federal boundary changes for next election". Toronto Star . Archived from the original on September 16, 2024. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
    10. Benzie, Robert (July 29, 2024). "Doug Ford may be getting ready for an early election — but it's not clear how many ridings Ontario will have". Toronto Star . Retrieved February 28, 2025.
    11. Rushowy, Kristin (June 28, 2024). "Doug Ford removes MPP Goldie Ghamari from caucus after she met with British far-right figure". Toronto Star . Archived from the original on June 28, 2024. Retrieved June 28, 2024.
    12. "Nick Kouvalis | Canada's National Observer: Climate News". www.nationalobserver.com. Retrieved April 2, 2025.
    Polls
    1. Korzinski, David (September 12, 2025). "Cross-Canada Outlook – Provincial Issues, Politics, and Government Performance: Ontario".
    2. "Ontario Voting Intentions, Plus Ontarians' Opinions On The Ontario Liberal Party Leadership" (PDF). September 5, 2025. Retrieved September 15, 2025.
    3. Coletto, David (August 31, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs climb to 53%, widen lead over Liberals to 26 points". Abacus Data. Retrieved August 31, 2025.
    4. "Ontario: PCs Lead by 9; Ontarians Split on Housing Solutions". Liaison Strategies. Liaison Strategies. Retrieved August 30, 2025.
    5. Coletto, David (July 24, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs hit 50% in vote intention; lead Liberals by 22". Abacus Data. Retrieved July 24, 2025.
    6. "Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 29, NDP 21, Green 6". Pallas Data. June 30, 2025. Retrieved July 4, 2025.
    7. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). Mainstreet Research . June 27, 2025. Retrieved July 3, 2025.
    8. Coletto, David (June 10, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford Government Approval Hits New High; PCs lead by 21". Abacus Data. Retrieved June 10, 2025.
    9. "Ontario Report Card" (PDF). Leger. May 29, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
    10. "Ontario: PCs Lead by 10 as Ontario NDP Squeezed Out". Liaison Strategies. Liaison Strategies. Retrieved May 14, 2025.
    11. "Federal Election Study - Ontario Advanced Analytics Federal and Provincial Ballot Tests March 26th, 2025" (PDF). QC125. Campaign Research. Retrieved March 28, 2025.