45th Ontario general election

45th Ontario general election

←  2025 On or before April 11, 2030 (2030-04-11)
←  outgoing members
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023 Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport Last election 80 seats, 42.97% 27 seats, 18.55% Current seats 79 27 Seats needed 36   Leader Bonnie Crombie (outgoing) Mike Schreiner Party Liberal Green Leader since December 2, 2023 November 15, 2009 Leader's seat None Guelph Last election 14 seats, 29.95% 2 seats, 4.83% Current seats 14 2 Seats needed 49 61
Incumbent Premier Doug Ford Progressive Conservative

The 45th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on April 11, 2030 unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Ontario.

Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario

Party		Party leader	Seats
			2025	Current
	Progressive Conservative	Doug Ford	80	79
	New Democratic	Marit Stiles	27	27
	Liberal	Bonnie Crombie	14	14
	Green	Mike Schreiner	2	2
	Independent		1	2
Total			124	124

Timeline

2025

• February 27: The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario under Doug Ford wins a third majority government in the 44th Ontario general election.
• September 14: Bonnie Crombie announces intention to resign as Liberal leader following a disappointing result in a leadership review vote. She will remain as leader until a leadership race chooses a successor. ^[1]
• September 20: Marit Stiles receives 68 percent support in a leadership review vote during the Ontario New Democratic Party's convention, vowing to remain as party leader. ^[2]

Ridings

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 ^[3] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, ^[4] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. ^{[5] [6]} This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017. ^[7]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario was allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the 2025 provincial election. ^[8]

Ontario does not have legislation in place for a scheduled review of electoral districts and boundaries, and any changes to boundaries would require new legislation. ^[9]

Date of the election

Ontario repealed its fixed election date legislation on November 27, 2025. ^{[10] [11]}

Under Section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms the Ontario legislature is automatically dissolved 5 years after the return of the writs for the previous general election. ^[12] Polling day in Ontario elections is the 5th Thursday after the date of the writ. ^[13]

The date fixed for the return of the writs in the 2025 general election was March 7, 2025, ^[14] meaning that unless the legislature is dissolved earlier it will be automatically dissolved on March 7, 2030, and the latest an election could be held is April 11, 2030.

Seat changes

44th Parliament of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2025–present)

Party		2025	Gain/(loss) due to					present
			Resignation as MPP	Resignation from caucus	Expulsion	Byelection gain	Byelection hold
	Progressive Conservative	80			(1)			79
	New Democratic	27						27
	Liberal	14						14
	Green	2						2
	Independent	1			1			2
Total		124		–	–			124

Changes in seats held since February 27, 2025

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Sault Ste. Marie	September 22, 2025	Chris Scott [15]	█  PC	Expelled from caucus.			█  Independent

Opinion polls

Graphical Summary

Opinion Polling for the 45th Ontario General Election

Table of Polls

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source	PC	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling type	Lead
Liaison Strategies	December 7, 2025	[p 1]	44	16	35	3	2	±3.09%	1,000	IVR	9
Angus Reid	December 1, 2025	[p 2]	41	23	28	4	4	±3%	723	Online	13
Pallas Data	November 15, 2025	[p 3]	45	18	28	6	3	±3%	1,077	IVR	17
North Poll	November 7, 2025	[p 4]	46	17	29	4	4	—N/a	742	Online	17
Abacus Data	November 6, 2025	[p 5]	51	19	23	3	4	±3.1%	1,000	Online	28
Leger	October 20, 2025	[p 6]	44	13	32	7	3	±3.0%	1,052	Online	12
Liaison Strategies	October 15, 2025	[p 7]	47	15	33	3	2	±3.4%	800	IVR	14
Abacus Data	October 15, 2025	[p 8]	51	15	25	5	4	±3.1%	1,000	Online	26
Relay Strategies	October 13, 2025	[p 9]	44	17	29	6	5	—N/a	1,268	Online	15
Mainstreet Research	September 18, 2025	[p 10]	48	14	29	3	5	±3.2%	958	Online	19
Abacus Data	September 17, 2025	[p 11]	52	12	24	6	6	±3.1%	1,021	Online	28
Angus Reid	September 5, 2025	[p 12]	45	22	25	4	6	±3%	935	Online	20
Pallas Data	September 4, 2025	[p 13]	45	17	26	7	5	±3.1%	1,026	IVR	19
Abacus Data	August 19, 2025	[p 14]	53	12	27	5	3	±3.04%	1,037	Online	26
Liaison Strategies	August 14, 2025	[p 15]	44	15	35	3	3	±3.4%	800	Telephone	9
Abacus Data	July 15, 2025	[p 16]	50	13	28	6	3	±3.1%	1,000	Online	22
Pallas Data	June 29, 2025	[p 17]	43	21	29	6	2	±3%	1,080	IVR	14
Mainstreet Research	June 26, 2025	[p 18]	41	17	32	3	7	±3.2%	923	Smart IVR	9
Abacus Data	June 5, 2025	[p 19]	49	14	28	5	4	±3.1%	1,000	Online	21
Leger	May 25, 2025	[p 20]	45	15	32	5	3	±3.1%	1,025	Online	13
Liaison Strategies	May 9, 2025	[p 21]	46	13	36	2	3	±3.09%	1,000	IVR	10
Campaign Research [a]	March 26, 2025	[p 22]	46	18	24	8	4	±2.2%	1,672	Online	22
2025 election	February 27, 2025	—N/a	42.97	18.55	29.95	4.83	3.70	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	13.02

Notes

1. Campaign Research is an internal PC Party polling firm led by Nick Kouvalis. ^[16]

References

1. Smith Cross, Jessica; Cornwell, Steve (September 14, 2025). "BREAKING: Bonnie Crombie to step down as Ontario Liberal Party leader". The Trillium.
2. Benzie, Robert (September 23, 2025). "Marit Stiles survives leadership review with 68 per cent support, vows to 'hold Doug Ford to account'". Toronto Star.
3. Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 , S.O. 2015, c. 31
4. as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016 , S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
5. "Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission". August 8, 2017. Archived from the original on March 19, 2018. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
6. Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017). "Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous". Toronto Star . Archived from the original on December 6, 2017. Retrieved December 10, 2017.
7. Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017 , S.O. 2017, c. 18
8. Benzie, Robert (August 1, 2024). "Ford government to break with tradition and not adopt federal boundary changes for next election". Toronto Star . Archived from the original on September 16, 2024. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
9. Benzie, Robert (July 29, 2024). "Doug Ford may be getting ready for an early election — but it's not clear how many ridings Ontario will have". Toronto Star . Retrieved February 28, 2025.
10. Jones, Allison (October 27, 2025). "Ontario to scrap fixed election dates, raise donation limit to $5,000 under new bill". The Canadian Press. Retrieved October 27, 2025.
11. Plan to Protect Ontario Act (Budget Measures), 2025 (No. 2) , S.O. 2025, c. 15, s. 2(2), Sch. 7
12. "Section 4 – Maximum duration of legislative bodies". Charterpedia. Ottawa: Department of Justice. July 14, 2025. Retrieved December 28, 2025.
13. Election Act , R.S.O. 1990, c. E.6, s. 9.1(5)
14. Essensa, Greg (March 15, 2025). "Parliamentary Notice - Reuturn of Members" (PDF). www.ontario.ca. Toronto: King’s Printer for Ontario. Retrieved December 28, 2025.
15. White, Erik (September 22, 2025). "Sault MPP Chris Scott removed from Ford's PC caucus after arrest on assault, assault with weapon charges". CBC News . Retrieved December 7, 2025.
16. "Nick Kouvalis | Canada's National Observer: Climate News". www.nationalobserver.com. Retrieved April 2, 2025.

Polls

1. "PCs lead OLP 44% to 35%, Ontarians Skeptical of Highway 401 Tunnel Expansion" (PDF). Liaison Strategies. January 2, 2026. Retrieved January 2, 2026.
2. "Government satisfaction scores fall like winter snow as Canadians blanketed in cost-of-living challenges". Angus Reid. December 17, 2025.
3. "Ontario Voting Intentions, Plus Ontarians' Opinions On Political Donations Limits, the Skills Development Fund, and the 401 Tunnel" (PDF). Pallas Data. November 17, 2025. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 8, 2025. Retrieved December 7, 2025.
4. Kohut, Alex (November 13, 2025). "Ontario Vote: PCs 46%, Liberals 29%, NDP 17%". The North Poll with Alex Kohut. Substack . Retrieved November 14, 2025.
5. "Ontario PCs Still Lead by Wide Margin but Ontario NDP Rise Four in a Month". Abacus Data . November 10, 2025. Retrieved November 10, 2025.
6. "Ontario Report Card" (PDF). Leger. November 3, 2025. Retrieved November 7, 2025.
7. "Ontario: PCs Lead by 14 but Ontarians Support Speed Cameras". Liaison Strategies. October 20, 2025. Retrieved October 20, 2025.
8. "PCs Hold Commanding Lead, But 1 in 4 PC Supporters Point to a Lack of Alternative for their Support of Doug Ford". Abacus Data . October 21, 2025. Retrieved October 23, 2025.
9. Ronellenfitsch, Kyla (October 21, 2025). "In a race of hypotheticals, Boozary leads: OLP leadership". Relay with Kyla Ronellenfitsch. Substack . Retrieved October 27, 2025.
10. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). Mainstreet Research . September 22, 2025. Retrieved September 23, 2025.
11. Coletto, David (September 23, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: PCs Steady at 52% as Crombie Resigns Amid Liberal Convention Fallout". Abacus Data . Retrieved September 24, 2025.
12. Korzinski, David (September 12, 2025). "Cross-Canada Outlook – Provincial Issues, Politics, and Government Performance: Ontario".
13. "Ontario Voting Intentions, Plus Ontarians' Opinions On The Ontario Liberal Party Leadership" (PDF). September 5, 2025. Retrieved September 15, 2025.
14. Coletto, David (August 31, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs climb to 53%, widen lead over Liberals to 26 points". Abacus Data. Retrieved August 31, 2025.
15. "Ontario: PCs Lead by 9; Ontarians Split on Housing Solutions". Liaison Strategies. August 29, 2025. Retrieved August 30, 2025.
16. Coletto, David (July 24, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs hit 50% in vote intention; lead Liberals by 22". Abacus Data. Retrieved July 24, 2025.
17. "Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 29, NDP 21, Green 6". Pallas Data. June 30, 2025. Retrieved July 4, 2025.
18. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). Mainstreet Research . June 27, 2025. Retrieved July 3, 2025.
19. Coletto, David (June 10, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford Government Approval Hits New High; PCs lead by 21". Abacus Data. Retrieved June 10, 2025.
20. "Ontario Report Card" (PDF). Leger. May 29, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
21. "Ontario: PCs Lead by 10 as Ontario NDP Squeezed Out". Liaison Strategies. May 14, 2025. Retrieved May 14, 2025.
22. "Federal Election Study - Ontario Advanced Analytics Federal and Provincial Ballot Tests March 26th, 2025" (PDF). QC125. Campaign Research. Retrieved March 28, 2025.

External links

• Elections Ontario